Did the U.S. Treasury’s capital purchase program (CPP) help bank lending and business activity?

The 2008 financial crisis led the U.S. Treasury to implement the capital purchase program (CPP) to revive commercial bank lending and hence stimulate business activity. Employing dynamic panel techniques and methodologies from the bank lending channel literature we find that after controlling for asset size, bank capital, and macroeconomic variables (real GDP growth rate and interest rate spreads), the impact of the CPP program is statistically significant only for money center banks. However, over our sample period from 2008Q3 to 2009Q4 we find a very modest impact on lending by only the largest banks. Overall, our results suggest that CPP’s business objective to boost loan growth and hence business activity during the crisis remained unfulfilled.     

Credit Unions and Small Business Lending

Among the issues raised by consolidation within the banking industry is a concern that small businesses will be less able to obtain credit as community banks are acquired by larger or non-local institutions. Community banks have traditionally been a major source of funding for small businesses. The impact of bank consolidation on credit availability may depend in part on whether the remaining community institutions expand their small business lending activities. This study examines whether credit unions have a propensity to extend business loans in markets that have experienced bank merger and acquisition activity. We find some evidence that credit unions are more likely to engage in business lending in markets characterized by greater bank merger and acquisition activity. Moreover, the estimated economic significance is meaningful in many of the specifications.

Capital ratios and bank lending: A matched bank approach

This paper examines the impact of bank capital ratios on bank lending by comparing differences in loan growth to differences in capital ratios at sets of banks that are matched based on geographic area as well as size and various business characteristics. We argue that such comparisons are most effective at controlling for local loan demand and other environmental factors. For comparison we also control for local factors using MSA fixed effects. We find, based on data from 2001 to 2011, that the relationship between capital ratios and bank lending was significant during and shortly following the recent financial crisis but not at other times. We find that the relationship between capital ratios and loan growth is stronger for banks where loans are contracting than where loans are expanding. We also show that the elasticity of bank lending with respect to capital ratios is higher when capital ratios are relatively low, suggesting that the effect of capital ratio on bank lending is nonlinear. In addition, we present findings on the relationship between bank capital and lending by bank size and loan type.     

Risk Overhang and Loan Portfolio Decisions: Small Business Loan Supply before and during the Financial Crisis

We estimate a structural model of bank portfolio lending and find that the typical U.S. community bank reduced its business lending during the global financial crisis. The decline in business credit was driven by increased risk overhang effects (consistent with a reduction in the liquidity of assets held on bank balance sheets) and by reduced loan supply elasticities suggestive of credit rationing (consistent with an increase in lender risk aversion). Nevertheless, we identify a group of strategically focused relationship banks that made and maintained higher levels of business loans during the crisis.     

Is there a bright side to government banks? Evidence from the global financial crisis

Using a sample of banks from 56 countries, this paper investigates the lending behavior of government banks during the crisis of 2008, and its association with bank performance and the economy. Contrary to the traditional wisdom, we find that government banks can play a beneficial role under certain circumstances. Government banks have higher loan growth rates than private banks during the crisis. In countries with low corruption, the increased lending by government banks is associated with better bank performance and more favorable GDP and employment growth in the crisis period. In contrast, the results for countries with high corruption are more consistent with the political view: the increased lending by government banks is associated with underperformance relative to private banks, and creates no beneficial effects on either GDP growth or employment.     

Bank lending in Switzerland: Driven by business models and exposed to uncertainty

We study the bank lending channel in Switzerland over three decades using unbalanced quarterly bank-individual data spanning 1987 to 2016. We take an agnostic stance on which bank characteristic drives the heterogeneous lending responses to interest rate changes, and estimate the relevant classification of banks. In addition, our empirical model allows for within-group regime-specific lending responses, determined by a latent, estimated state indicator. No single bank characteristic identifies clearly the relevant classification of banks, as several characteristics determining banks’ business models underlie banks’ heterogeneous lending responses. The bank lending channel does not prevail continuously over the observation period. The overall negative effect of interest rate changes on loan growth is partly muted during periods when uncertainty is unusually low or high.     

Joint size and ownership specialization in bank lending

During the period 1996–2003 consolidation reduces the size diversity of Spanish banks but diversity in ownership forms increases as savings banks and cooperatives gain market share. This paper examines the implications of these structural changes in Spanish credit markets in terms of banks’ specialization (large or small borrowers, relational or transactional lending) and consequent credit availability for small and opaque firms. We find that size-of-the-borrower/size-of-the-bank specialization follows a different pattern in savings banks than in commercial banks, suggesting lower organizational diseconomies of size in the former than in the latter, which helps to explain the increase in ownership diversity over time. We also find that savings banks and cooperatives specialize relatively more in relational lending than commercial banks so ownership diversity assures funding for small firms even if bank consolidation continues.     

Foreign bank penetration and the lending channel in emerging economies: Evidence from bank-level panel data

This paper examines the main implications of recently increasing foreign bank penetration on bank lending as a channel of monetary policy transmission in emerging economies. Using a dynamic panel model of loan growth, we investigate the loan granting behavior of 1273 banks in the emerging economies of Asia, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe during the period from 1996 to 2003. Applying the pooled OLS, system GMM, and panel VAR estimators, we find consistent evidence that foreign banks are less responsive to monetary shocks in host countries, as they adjust their outstanding loan portfolios and interest rates to a lesser extent than domestic private banks, independent of their liquidity, capitalization, size, efficiency, and credit risk, and although there exists a bank lending channel in the emerging economies, it is declining in strength due to the increased level of foreign bank penetration. We also explore possible driving factors for the different responses of foreign and domestic banks to monetary policy shocks by investigating foreign banks’ different behavior during banking crises and tranquil periods, the effects of mode of entry to host countries, the home-country effects, and the response of foreign banks from OECD countries vs. all foreign countries including non-OECD countries. We suggest the access of foreign banks to funding from parent banks through internal capital markets as the most convincing explanation.     

How important are small banks to small business lending?: New evidence from a survey of small firms

Typically, small banks lend a larger proportion of their assets to small businesses than do large banks. The recent wave of bank mergers has thinned the ranks of small banks, raising the concern that small firms may find it difficult to access bank credit. However, bank consolidation will reduce small business credit only if small banks enjoy an advantage in lending to small businesses. We test the existence of a small bank cost advantage in small business lending by conducting the following simple test: If such advantages exist, then we should observe small businesses in areas with few small banks to have less bank credit. Using data on small business borrowers from the 1993 National Survey of Small Business Finance, we find that the probability of a small firm having a line of credit from a bank does not decrease in the long run when there are fewer small banks in the area, although short-run disruptions may occur. Nor do we find that firms in areas with few small banks are any more likely to repay trade credit late, suggesting that such firms are no more credit constrained than firms in areas with many small banks.     

Bank loans during the 2008 quantitative easing

We examine the effect of quantitative easing on the supply of bank loans. During the Fed’s quantitative easing programs, lending banks reduced relatively more loan spreads, offered longer loan maturities, provided larger loans, and loosened more covenants for firms whose long-term bond ratings were below BBB and were lower than those with investment-grade bond ratings. Furthermore, we find that new bank loans in this period were associated with a reduction in a firm’s value and an increase in default risk. These results indicate that banks took greater risk during the 2008 quantitative easing by relaxing lending standards to relatively riskier borrowers.     

Corporate Tax Enforcement Externalities and the Banking Sector

We explore whether corporate tax enforcement can affect bank lending. Specifically, we hypothesize that tax enforcement efforts aimed at small and midsized enterprises (SME) can improve their information environments, which in turn could lead to increased bank commercial lending. Exploiting the regional structure employed by the IRS until 1999, we find that the corporate tax return audit probability for SMEs is associated with greater commercial lending growth for regionally focused banks. We find similar evidence when exploiting the IRS reorganization from a regional to federal system in 2000. Further results show that tax enforcement's impact on SME informational environments is at least partially responsible for this association: The impact of tax auditing on bank lending is stronger for banks facing greater informational disadvantages and in areas where SMEs face greater hold-up problems. Finally, we find that the tax audit rate is positively associated with loan portfolio quality, suggesting that tax enforcement can lead to better loan decisions. Our findings are consistent with the tax authority's mandate having important externalities on bank lending and SME access to capital, suggesting that the benefits to tax enforcement go beyond improving tax collection.     

Liquidity crisis,relationship lending and corporate finance

This paper investigates the consequences of the liquidity shocks in wholesale funding markets during the 2007–2009 financial crisis on bank lending and corporate financing. We show that banks that relied more heavily on wholesale funding contracted lending more severely than banks that relied more on insured deposits. We then examine the effects of loan contraction on the financial positions of publicly traded firms. We find that both during and after the crisis, the change in leverage of bank-dependent firms is less than that of firms with access to public debt markets. In addition, bank-dependent firms rely more on cash than net equity issuance to finance operations. We also find that firms with established bank lending relationships weather the crisis better. Such firms are able to attain higher levels of leverage during the crisis, add to their cash holdings, secure new bank credit, and achieve higher profitability as a result.     

“When the cat's away the mice will play”: Does regulation at home affect bank risk-taking abroad?

This paper provides the first empirical evidence that bank regulation is associated with cross-border spillover effects through the lending activities of large multinational banks. We analyze business lending by 155 banks to 9,613 firms in 1,976 different localities across 16 countries. We find that lower barriers to entry, tighter restrictions on bank activities, and to a lesser degree higher minimum capital requirements in domestic markets are associated with lower bank lending standards abroad. The effects are stronger when banks are less efficiently supervised at home, and are observed to exist independently from the impact of host-country regulation.     

The Surprising Use of Credit Scoring in Small Business Lending by Community Banks and the Attendant Effects on Credit Availability, Risk, and Profitability

The literature has documented a positive relationship between the use of credit scoring for small business loans and small business credit availability, broadly defined. However, this literature is hampered by the fact that all of the studies are based on a single 1998 survey of the very largest U.S. banking organizations. This paper addresses a number of deficiencies in the extant literature by employing data from a new survey of the use of credit scoring in small business lending, primarily by community banks. The survey evidence suggests that the use of credit scores in small business lending by community banks is surprisingly widespread. Moreover, the scores employed tend to be the consumer credit scores of the small business owners, rather than the more encompassing small business credit scores that include data on the firms as well as on the owners. Our empirical analysis suggests that credit scoring is associated with an initial increase in small business lending activity that moderates over time and no change in the quality of the loan portfolio. Supplementary analysis suggests that the use of credit scores for small business lending has a negative initial effect on community bank profitability that moderates over time.     

Loan officers and relationship lending to SMEs

Previous research suggests that loan officers may play a critical role in relationship lending by producing soft information about SMEs. For the first time, we analyze this hypothesis and find empirical evidence that indicates that loan officer activities are associated with bank production of soft information. We also find that loan officers at small banks produce more soft information than at large banks, but large banks appear to have the equivalent potential to underwrite relationship loans. Nevertheless, large banks choose instead to focus their resources on transactions lending.     

Asymmetric information and price competition in small business lending

This paper examines the relationship between bank lending rates and their cost of funds in New Zealand. Our results show that on average mortgage rates respond more quickly to changes in the cost of funds than base business lending rates. We also find an asymmetry in the initial (short-run) response of banks to changes in funding costs; in particular, our results show banks adjust mortgage rates downwards faster than upwards. The speed to which lending rates revert back to their equilibrium relationship with funding costs varies across the lending markets. We find the adjustment speed is faster when mortgage rates are below equilibrium, whereas it is slower when business lending rates are above long-run levels in relation to funding costs. Our analysis suggests that banks prefer the plain-vanilla type of lending such as mortgages in comparison to small business lending consistent with asymmetric information associated with business loans.     

The Effects of Dynamic Changes in Bank Competition on the Supply of Small Business Credit

We study the effects of structural changes in banking markets on the supply of credit to small businesses. Specifically, we examine whether bank mergers and acquisitions (M & As) and entry have ``external' effects on small business loans by other banks in the same local markets. The results suggest modest positive external effects from these dynamic changes in competition, except that large banks may reduce small business lending in reaction to entry. We confirm bank size and age as important determinants of this lending, and show that the measured age effect does not appear to be driven by local market M & A activity.     

Liquidity creation and funding ability during the interbank lending crunch

This study examines the portfolio response of US banks to the interbank lending collapse during the global financial crisis. The paper documents that a bank's response to the collapse of interbank markets is related to whether or not the bank was a net borrower or lender of funds. In particular, we find that typical borrowers had lower loan growth than typical lenders, but that the crisis did not differentially affect borrowers and lenders with respect to loan growth. However, borrowing and lending banks were differentially affected by the crisis in terms of their liquid asset growth. The typical borrowers reduced their liquid asset growth relative to lending banks during the crisis. We interpret this finding as saying that borrowing banks had to reduce their risky asset holdings because access to interbank funds had been reduced. The paper presents analogous analyses of the possible differential response of borrowers and lenders to changes in counterparty risk and lending through the Fed's TAF facility.     

Commercial banks and business loan behavior

In order to assess the cause of the 1975 weakness in business borrowing from commercial banks, a model of the business loan market is examined and estimated for small and large commercial banks. The major results of this study are that (1) large bank and small bank markets are structurally dissimilar and thus should not be aggregated (2) superior forecasts for total business loans can be achieved by forecasting from large and small bank equations, and (3) the model does forecast the weak business loan behavior in 1975, particularly at the large banks, and tracks the current period fairly well.     

Hyperbolic distance function,technical efficiency and stability to shocks: A comparison between Islamic banks and conventional banks in MENA region

In this paper, we compare banking performance and resiliency between Islamic banks and conventional banks in MENA region over the period 2002–2014. Stochastic hyperbolic and radial output distance functions are employed to evaluate banking performances. Furthermore, hyperbolic distance function methodology is extended to evaluate bank's business risk through simulations. Historical extreme observed situations in terms of profit loss from the industry are used in order to simulate their impact on the overall profit distribution within the industry. More precisely, we compare the observed profit and the simulated one followed by an abrupt fall in bank lending and non-lending activities. Results find evidence of technical efficiency differences with bank type, some evidence with bank size. It is found that conventional banks are much more vulnerable to an important drop on their lending activities than non-lending activities, while Islamic banks are equally vulnerable to any drop of the activity. Furthermore, Islamic banks are found to be less vulnerable than their counterparts when they are exposed to shocks on their lending activities. Very large banks are much more resilient than small banks whatever is the bank stream. It is also found that bank vulnerability is more important when the banks are not able to adjust their costs in the short run, and increases with the exposure to higher shocks in magnitude.