中国金融业与经济增长的稳定性分析

本文通过对金融业增加值增长率和贡献率、M2和金融业机构存贷款余额增长速度、价格波动、金融相关比率变化和股票市值占GDP比重变化等多角度的分析发现,中国金融业与经济增长的稳定性总体存在较大的不确定性。但近十年两者的稳定性和协调性有所提高。     

区域金融发展与经济增长分析——基于乌海市的实证研究

本文利用C-D函数,选取乌海地区1990-2009年的贷款总量、固定资产投资额及GDP作为指标,采取协整分析、格兰杰因果分析及脉冲响应分析等计量方法进行研究,得出金融发展及固定资产投资对经济增长是单向促进作用的结论。为此,要大力发展基础设施建设,控制好信贷投放的节奏及力度,把握好信贷支持的重点及方向,以促进经济又好又快增长。     

Financial Architecture and Economic Performance: International Evidence

The paper examines the relation between the architecture of an economy's financial system—its degree of market orientation—and economic performance in the real sector. I find that while market-based systems outperform bank-based systems among countries with developed financial sectors, bank-based systems fare better among countries with underdeveloped financial sectors. Countries dominated by small firms grow faster in bank-based systems and those dominated by larger firms in market-based systems. The findings suggest that recent trends in financial development policies that indiscriminately prescribe market-oriented financial-system architecture to emerging and transition economies might be misguided because suitable financial architecture, in and of itself, could be a source of value. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G1, G21, O1, 04.     

广西银行业存贷款增量与经济增长的实证研究

本文利用计量经济学的方法,在单整、协整的基础上构建误差修正模型(ECM),并运用Granger因果检验模型,对广西银行业存贷款增量与经济增长的内在关系进行实证研究.得出的结果是:存贷量对经济的发展有正向带动作用,并且广西银行业存贷增量对经济增长的跨期影响间隔至少为一期;但是反过来,这几年广西经济的发展对银行信贷量的拉动相对就不那么明显.     

International Knowledge Flows and Economic Performance: A Review of the Evidence

An empirical analysis of the microeconomic links between tradeand knowledge diffusion is useful for singling out some of thekey predictions of the theory of endogenous growth in open economies.This literature postulates that total factor productivity ishigher when trade gives countries access to a wider or moresophisticated range of technologies. The articles reviewed herefind considerable evidence that imported technologies raisetotal factor productivity in importing countries, particularlydeveloping countries and particularly when technologies areacquired by way of imports of intermediate goods. They alsoprovide some support for the argument that exports and foreigndirect investment are channels for learning. Although accessto foreign technologies has a positive impact on developingcountries' total factor productivity, overall these countriesare shown to purchase older and simpler machines than industrialcountries. Relative factor and machinery costs and skill andtechnology endowments affect the choice of imported technologies.However, government attempts to limit or guide the selectionof technologies are likely to have a negative effect on growthbecause they discourage producers from purchasing the most appropriateand efficient machines. Rather, policies aimed at promotingtechnological development should strengthen the absorptive capacityof importing countries and address the complementarity betweenhuman and physical capital in a broader context.     

Banking Market Structure, Financial Dependence and Growth: International Evidence from Industry Data

This paper explores the empirical relevance of banking market structure on growth. There is substantial evidence of a positive relationship between the level of development of the banking sector of an economy and its long-run output growth. Little is known, however, about the role played by the market structure of the banking sector on the dynamics of capital accumulation. This paper provides evidence that bank concentration promotes the growth of those industrial sectors that are more in need of external finance by facilitating credit access to younger firms. However, we also find evidence of a general depressing effect on growth associated with a concentrated banking industry, which impacts all sectors and all firms indiscriminately.     

中国银行业结构变迁与经济增长的实证研究

何种金融结构更有利于经济增长是一个在理论上存在巨大分歧的问题,中国经济为经验验证金融结构对经济增长的影响提供了一个非常理想的样本。本文以1995～2006年中国29个省级单位的经验数据为样本,采用Difference GMM和System GMM动态面板回归估计方法系统地检验了中国的银行集中度对经济增长及其两个组成部分(TFP增长和资本积累)的影响,得出的主要结论是,中国金融中介整体规模的扩张实际上并未对经济增长贡献更多,在这个环境下,中国当前较高的银行集中度是阻碍了经济增长,这主要表现为较高的银行集中度抑制了劳均资本的积累,其对TFP增长的影响在统计上却是不显著的。     

我国各省区市金融发展的经济增长效应分析——基于面板数据的时变趋势与区域特征分析

基于31个省区市1994-2005年的经济金融面板数据的实证分析发现.金融规模扩张、结构优化、效率提升确实有助于促进经济增长,且效率提升比规模扩张更有助于促进地区经济增长.金融发展的经济增长效应存在着区域差异,且受各省区市的地区性基础或禀赋因素的影响较大.随着金融体制改革的推进,各地区金融发展对经济发展的适应性逐步增强,但仍受到金融体制的约束,需要进一步深化改革,加快发展.为此,要充分发挥中央政府主导金融制度供给与创新、地方政府主导当地金融生态建设和市场主导金融资源配置的基础性作用,将统筹区域金融协调发展与部分省区市金融率先发展有机统一起来.     

关于中国经济增长模式的一个解释框架--基于“土地财政”的演进分析北大核心

本文建立了一个新的模型尝试解释中国经济的近中期增长模式。在考虑“土地财政”作用的基础上,首先建立两期世代交叠(OLG)模型说明基本原理,随后将两期模型扩展到多期OLG模型,进行参数校准和模型求解。研究表明,在城镇化过程中政府将通过“土地财政”机制获得的资本用于基础设施建设,使得企业部门资本重新配置、均衡条件重构,推动形成国有企业与民营企业相对占比的稳定均衡。在这一机制下,GDP和全要素生产率不断上升但增速逐渐下降;资本的总体投资效率和资源配置优化速度出现下降,民营企业占比先增后稳。多期模型较好地刻画了我国1998—2017年期间经济结构变化趋势以及储蓄率、投资率、对外投资与外汇储备等宏观指标。随着“土地财政”作用的进一步弱化,持续推动技术进步、深化国企改革、深化金融改革等是实现我国经济长期可持续发展的关键举措。     

影响经济发展方式转变的因素分析:各国实践及经验

本文重点分析了影响美国、日本、亚洲新兴工业化国家和地区经济发展方式转变的各方面因素,总结了市场经济国家成功实现经济发展方式转变的一些共同经验,以期对我国"又好又快"地实现经济发展方式转变有所裨益。     

Effect of Banking Regulation on Performance: Evidence from Turkey

In this study, we investigate the effect of regulation on banking sector performance in an emerging country context. Consecutive crises in the early 2000s led to three waves of reformist banking regulations in Turkey: (1) the banking sector restructuring program in 2002, (2) limitation of the full deposit insurance system in 2004, and (3) a corporate governance-related banking law in 2005. Results show that these actions had a positive effect on bank lending, asset quality, and profitability. Findings also support the view that the sequence and timing of banking reforms in Turkey acted as a shield against the global financial crisis of 2008.     

Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence

By considering yearly production growth rates for several manufacturing industries in more than 100 countries during (roughly) the last 40 years, we show that industries that are more dependent on external finance are hit harder during recessions. The observed difference in the behavior of industries is larger when financial frictions are thought to be more prevalent, linking the result directly to the financial mechanism hypothesis. In particular, more dependent industries are more strongly affected in recessions when they are located in countries with poor financial contractibility, and when their assets are softer or less protective of financiers.     

税收增长与经济增长关系的实证分析

运用回归分析方法对我国税收增长与经济增长的关系进行实证分析的结果表明:我国税收增长处于合理增长范围;税收增长与经济增长关系基本协调;税收收入增长的强劲势头保持一段时期是没有问题的;税收收入必将进入与GDP增速协调发展的轨道。     

区域绿色金融发展与经济增长的耦合协调度和异质性研究

在当前我国提出2030年碳达峰、2060年碳中和背景下,我国的绿色金融对略显疲态的经济增长态势是否产生了积极的作用,绿色金融与经济增长之间的耦合融合程度、区域异质性差异何在。本文采用熵值法赋权、耦合度模型、泰尔指数和空间自相关莫兰指数研究2009-2018年我国四大区域绿色金融与经济增长的综合水平,结果发现,两者间的耦合度呈不断上升趋势且总体呈现聚集分布的特征;各地区绿色金融和经济增长间的耦合度和经济增长之间越来越表现出高度的一致性且一致性主要取决于经济增长,两者间的耦合度组内差异和组间差异呈现下降趋势;东北地区和东部地区两者之间耦合度的空间聚集性在不断减弱,而中部和西部地区则不断加强。面对这种情况,国家应继续保持对中西部地区的财政补贴,要加快发展方式绿色转型,实施全面节约战略,发展绿色低碳产业;对东部、东北部地区企业应完善环境监督机制,协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长,推进生态优先、节约集约、绿色低碳发展。     

The Impact of Mergers and Acquisitions on the Efficiency of the US Banking Industry: Further Evidence

Abstract:  Using the Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA), this study investigates the cost and profit efficiency effects of bank mergers on the US banking industry. We also use the non-parametric technique of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to evaluate the production structure of merged and non-merged banks. The empirical results indicate that mergers have improved the cost and profit efficiencies of banks. Further, evidence shows that merged banks have lower costs than non-merged banks because they are using the most efficient technology available (technical efficiency) as well as a cost minimizing input mix (allocative efficiency). The results suggest that there is an economic rational for future mergers in the banking industry. Finally, mergers may allow the banking industry to take advantage of the opportunities created by improved technology.     

Further Evidence on the Relationship Between Ownership and Performance

The objective of this paper is to extend prior research into the relationship between ownership and performance while controlling for the known market anomalies of firm size and earnings to price. The empirical results do support recent works indicating a positive relationship between the degree of insider ownership and performance. Using a piecewise regression model, both size and ownership are found to be significant. An additional finding of the paper supplements several recent works questioning the earlier works of Basu [6, 7].     

农村非正规金融与农村经济增长的实证分析——以江苏省为例

本文以金融发展与经济增长相关理论为基础,运用协整分析和Granger因果检验,对1986-2007年江苏省农村非正规金融与农村经济增长的关系进行研究.结果显示,二者存在长期稳定的正向关系.在促进农村经济增长方面,非正规金融略低于正规金融.因此,非正规金融并不是一种效率低下的制度安排.在此基础上本文提出了规范农村金融发展的政策建议.     

欠发达地区金融支持区域经济增长的分析——基于陕西与重庆的实证对比

金融发展能否在欠发达地区很好地促进经济增长,始终是各界高度关注的问题.本文选择了具有代表性的两个区域:西北地区的陕西省和西南地区的重庆市,进行区域金融发展和经济增长关系的比较研究.文章利用1978-2007年的样本数据,通过ADF检验、E-G协整检验、向量误差修正模型(EcM)和Granger因果检验展开实证分析.比较两地的金融对经济增长的支持力度,从金融发展的角度探讨以西部为代表的欠发达地区经济增长策略,以此来促进整个西部地区经济金融发展.     

银行体系性质与经济增长率之间关系的分析

市场经济是货币经济,因此无论在短期还是长期,货币供给都是决定经济增长的重要因素。从经济增长与货币供给的一般关系看,货币供给增长率就是一个社会的经济增长率。由于货币供给的增长速度往往与一个社会银行体系的性质有关,因此才使得经济增长速度快的社会都是那些建立在银行预算软约束基础上的国家,但它最终也一定会导致这些社会发生严重的金融危机与经济危机。健全的金融体系与较快的经济增长,是一个社会的两难选择。