影响个人信用因素的实证分析

信用评分的过程就是各指标对个人信用影响作用的大小赋予不同的分值权重,依次对过去借款大量人群进行观察和分析来进行个人信用评估过程。国外有DavidDurand信用计分模型和FICO信用分模型,国内的银行也有个人信用评估模型,但是各机构对影响个人信用状况的因素认识不同,侧重点和分值权重是各不相同的。本文通过对山东省内17个地市的1288个有效样本采用logit模型进行回归分析,提出了建立我国个人信用评估指标体系的建议。     

个人通用信用评分领域中客户分组的国际经验与方法

客户分组(Segmentation)是个人通用信用评分建模过程中的重要环节,是指根据客群的行为差异将全部借款人划分为多个子客群,进而分别针对不同子客群进行信用评分模型的开发,相较于使用全样本构建的单一信用评分模型,良好的客户分组往往可以提升违约风险识别的准确率.美国三大个人征信机构益博睿(Experian)、艾克飞(Equifax)和环联(TransUnion)采用了费埃哲(FICO)和华帝评分(VantageScore)两种信用评分方法,通过跟踪费埃哲、华帝评分在个人信用评分领域中所使用的客户分组方法及其进展,为我国个人通用信用评分模型的开发提供经验借鉴.     

个人信用评分模型比较数据挖掘分析

为了有效控制和防范信贷风险,商业银行必须对借款人做出准确的信用评估。本文通过利用传统的Logistic回归与随机森林模型,分别建立信用评分模型,并比较两个模型的优缺点以达到最佳的预测效果,从而有效的降低商业银行的个人信用评估风险,更好地实现银行利润最大化。     

消费者信用管理与消费信贷风险防范

近年来随着银行消费信贷业务的发展,发放给个人的消费贷款占银行贷款总额比例越来越大,随之而来的是个人信用问题的凸显。本文从消费者信用管理的角度拟就如何降低消费信贷风险,从而降低银行整体的信用风险方面作了一些探讨。并就如何控制管理个人信用提出三点建议。文章最后阐述了消费者信用管理的重要意义。     

市场化进程中的个人信用安排

在社会经济生活中,个人信用、企业信用、政府信用和社会信用构成环环相扣的“信用链“.在这个链条中,以个人信用为起点,并以个人信用精神逐渐扩大外化为企业信用、政府信用和社会信用.尤其在市场选择中由个人信用所产生的企业家,将这种信用精神通过实践活动,影响到个人所能影响的最大范围.因此,个人信用既是起点又是基础,更是社会信用体系的重要组成部分.金融业作为高度发达的信用中介行业,没有健全的个人信用作基础,银行很难生存.在市场化进程中,个人信用风险已成为银行经营活动的首要风险,个人信用系统的建立和健全已成为银行业大力拓展个人金融业务的当务之急.……     

信用评分模型在个人信贷业务中的应用

信用风险是金融业面临的最大风险。信用评分模型是有效识别个人信用风险的先进技术。本文结合中国实际，提出如何选择信用评分模型，如何在个人信贷业务中嵌入信用评分模型，同时，分析了信用评分模型在应用中的制约因素及对策。     

建立和发展我国个人信用制度的思考

一、建立我国个人信用制度的必要性 　　1.市场经济需要建立个人信用制度.市场经济是一种信用经济,信用经济是货币经济的一种高级形式,由此形成的信用关系涵盖政府、企业、银行、居民之间以及各自内部各方面.相应地,全社会的信用运行由国家及政府信用、机构或法人信用,个人信用和国外信用活动组成,个人信用则是其中的主要组成部分.随着我国市场经济的日趋完善,个人信用活动作为市场经济的重要组成部分,其业务必将得到迅速发展,建立个人信用制度保障体系,规范个人信用活动当事人的信用行为,提高守约意识,是建立良好的市场经济运行秩序的有力保障之一.……     

我国信用局个人信用评分发展研究

信用局个人信用评分作为信用风险管理的一个重要工具在国外得到广泛应用.我国个人基础信用信息数据库已经建成,开发信用局个人信用评分对我国社会信用体系建设和金融机构的风险管理有重要意义.在分析信用局个人信用评分特点、意义及其发展现状的基础上,提出我国信用局个人信用评分发展的几点建议.     

信用评分卡在微小企业贷款风险控制中的应用

同所有信贷业务一样,信用风险也是微小企业贷款面临的最主要风险。随着微小企业信贷业务的快速发展,客户群体的不断扩大,银行对于客户个人信用水平的把握变得越来越难。如何科学、快速地识别个人客户信用风险,成为微小贷款业务持续、健康发展的重要前提。信用评分模     

美国商业银行风险控制的做法及对我国商业银行开展消费信贷业务的借鉴

消费信贷是美国商业银行一项较为成熟的业务.政府的大力支持、健全的法律体系、完备的信用体系等,有力地支持了该业务的发展.同时,各家商业银行普遍应用"个人信用风险评分模型"和"消费信贷电脑审批系统",强调风险审核与风险组合控制,以风险最优化为管理目标,实现消费信贷的精细化管理,有针对性地防范各类风险,等等,这些风险管理措施,有效地促进了消费信贷业务的健康发展,对于我国商业银行开展消费信贷业务具有很好的借鉴意义.     

Trade credit and credit rationing

Asymmetric information between banks and firms can precludefinancing of valuable projects. Trade credit can alleviate thisproblem by incorporating the lending relation the private informationheld by suppliers about their customers. Incentive compatibilityconditions prevent collusion between two of the agents (e.g.,the buyer and the seller) against the third (e.g., the bank).Consistent with the empirical findings of Petersen and Rajan(1995), firms without relationships with banks resort more totrade credit, and sellers with greater ability to generate cashflows provide more trade credit. Finally small firms react tomonetary contractions by using trade credit, consistent withthe empirical results of Nilsen (1994).     

Do credit commitments compromise credit quality?

This paper focuses on banks’ risk-taking arising from potentially excessive growth of loans and off-balance sheet credit commitments. Credit quality is investigated both in macro and micro context, using a panel of 28 European countries over 2004–2014 and a panel of 478 European banks over 2004–2013. The dynamic panel data estimation results confirm that an increase in the ratio of credit commitments to total assets is a two year ahead warning indicator of growth in the ratio of non-performing loans and loan loss reserves. Simultaneous equation estimation exemplifies that the adverse effect of credit commitments on credit quality stems from the credit boom-bust context. As the economic impact of credit commitments to credit quality is significant compared to that of traditional credit quality determinants (real GDP growth and real growth in loans), the consideration of a credit commitments measure may improve timely recognition of credit risk accumulation episodes.     

On the nature of credit demand and credit rationing in competitive credit markets

Conventional analyses of the credit rationing problem seek to explain that problem within the context of classic demand analysis. In this paper we demonstrate that it is generally inappropriate to apply the notion of classic demand to credit markets, consequently, conventional notions of credit rationing must be rejected. In providing a new definition of credit rationing we also establish the previously rejected characterized by credit rationing.     

Counter-cyclical substitution between trade credit and bank credit

This paper explores the substitution relationship between trade credit and bank credit, and its counter-cyclic dynamic pattern through economic cycles. We propose a new theoretical model, using a mechanism design method, which predicts the substitution between the two credits and its counter-cyclic behavior, subject to the condition of technological efficiency not less than one. This model also helps explain the somewhat contradictory evidence in the literature, on the relationship between the two credits. We present empirical evidence on the substitution effect and its counter-cyclic behavior, by using a balanced panel data set of 284 listed Chinese companies for the period 1998-2006. We further find that the substitution behaves counter-cyclically with respect to the coincident macroeconomic indicator, namely, GDP. Our empirical analysis also has some new features such as treating endogeneity carefully and incorporating the lag-effect of trade credit coherently.     

Bilateral credit valuation adjustment for large credit derivatives portfolios

We obtain an explicit formula for the bilateral counterparty valuation adjustment of a credit default swaps portfolio referencing an asymptotically large number of entities. We perform the analysis under a doubly stochastic intensity framework, allowing default correlation through a common jump process. The key insight behind our approach is an explicit characterization of the portfolio exposure as the weak limit of measure-valued processes associated with survival indicators of portfolio names. We validate our theoretical predictions by means of a numerical analysis, showing that counterparty adjustments are highly sensitive to portfolio credit risk volatility as well as to the intensity of the common jump process.     

Counterparty credit risk and the credit default swap market

Counterparty credit risk has become one of the highest-profile risks facing participants in the financial markets. Despite this, relatively little is known about how counterparty credit risk is actually priced. We examine this issue using an extensive proprietary data set of contemporaneous CDS transaction prices and quotes by 14 different CDS dealers selling credit protection on the same underlying firm. This unique cross-sectional data set allows us to identify directly how dealers' credit risk affects the prices of these controversial credit derivatives. We find that counterparty credit risk is priced in the CDS market. The magnitude of the effect, however, is vanishingly small and is consistent with a market structure in which participants require collateralization of swap liabilities by counterparties.     

Exploring the components of credit risk in credit default swaps

In this paper, we test the influence of various fundamental variables on the pricing of credit default swaps. The theoretical determinants that are important for pricing credit default swaps include the risk-free rate, industry sector, credit rating, and liquidity factors. We suggest a linear regression model containing these different variables, especially focusing on liquidity factors. Unlike bond spreads which have been shown to be inversely related to liquidity (i.e., the greater the liquidity, the lower the spread), there is no a priori reason that the credit default swap spread should exhibit the same relationship. This is due to the economic characteristics of a credit default swap compared to a bond. Our empirical result shows that all the fundamental variables investigated have a significant effect on the credit default swap spread. Moreover, our findings suggest that credit default swaps that trade with greater liquidity have a wider credit default swap spread.     

Sovereign credit spreads

The paper develops a structural credit risk model to study sovereign credit risk and the dynamics of sovereign credit spreads. The model features endogenous default and recovery rates that both depend on the interaction between domestic output fluctuations and global macroeconomic conditions. We show that sovereigns choose to default at higher levels of economic output once global macroeconomic conditions are bad. This yields to default rates and credit spreads that are substantially higher compared to normal times. We derive closed-form expressions for sovereign debt values and default times and focus on the dynamics of sovereign credit spreads. As opposed to standard theories of sovereign debt, this paper’s structural model generates much richer default patterns and non-linearities through regime-shifts in the global macroeconomic environment. Moreover, changes in the global environment reveal the interconnectedness of the financial system.     

Politicizing consumer credit

Powerful politicians can interfere with the enforcement of regulations. As such, expected political interference can affect constituents’ behavior. Using rotations of Senate committee chairs to identify variation in political power and expected regulatory relief, we study powerful politicians’ effect on consumer lending to communities protected by fair-lending regulations. We find a 7.5% reduction in credit access to minority neighborhoods in states with new committee chairs. Larger reductions occur in Community Reinvestment Act-eligible neighborhoods and when Senators serve on committees that oversee the enforcement of fair-lending laws. Banks headquartered in powerful Senators’ states are responsible for the reduction in credit access.