Efficiency in the Mortgage Market: The Borrower's Perspective

This paper uses mortgage history data from the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation to analyze the prepayment behavior of homeowners and to test whether borrowers exercise their prepayment options in a manner consistent with contingent claims models. A variety of hazard models are estimated from individual data on more than 6000 mortgages issued during the 1976–1980 period. In these models, it is clear that the extent to which the prepayment option is "in the money" has a strong effect on behavior. However, it is less clear that the option is exercised quite as ruthlessly as the theory predicts.     

Self-Selection in the Fixed-Rate Mortgage Market

This paper analyzes the effect of information asymmetry between the lender and the borrower (i.e., the borrower knows how long he will reside in his home, whereas the lender does not) on the borrower's choice among the interest rate-discount points combinations available in the fixed-rate mortgage market. The analysis shows that if the rate-points trade-off of the mortgage menu is either too steep or too flat, then all types of borrowers will choose the same loan contract from the menu. In addition, if the rate-points trade-off is not convex to the origin, then only the contracts with extreme rate-points combinations will be chosen by borrowers; all contracts with intermediate rate-points combinations are redundant and will not be chosen by any borrowers. Intermediate rate-points combination mortgage contracts would be chosen by some borrowers only if the mortgage menu were to provide a self-selection function. Several necessary conditions of a self-selection mortgage menu are depicted.     

Mortgage Pricing: Some Provisional Empirical Results

We test some of the qualitative properties of mortgage pricing models. The models use option pricing techniques, focusing on prepayment as a call option. They imply a quite nonlinear relationship between mortgage price and coupon, interest rates and volatility. We test for both the first and second derivatives of the effects of these variables using data on Ginnie Mae mortgage backed securities. We find that the model is largely supported by the data.     

Commercial Mortgage Pricing with Unobservable Borrower Default Costs

This paper develops a pricing model for commercial real estate mortgage debt that recognizes the influence of default transaction costs on the borrower's default decision. These costs are heterogeneous across borrowers and largely un-observable to the lender/investor at the time of origination or loan purchase. A recognition of these unobservable costs can explain why borrower default decisions may differ from those predicted by "ruthless" mortgage-default pricing models. We address the determinants of default choice and timing by replacing sharp default boundaries found in the ruthless models with "fuzzy" boundaries that account for investor uncertainty with respect to evaluating borrower default decisions. To implement our model, we estimate probabilities of default as a junction of time and net equity in the property. Then, given that default occurs, loss severities are modeled based on expected property value recovery net of foreclosure costs and time until the asset is actually sold. Under reasonable parameter value choices, resulting Monte Carlo simulations produce numerical mortgage price estimates as well as component default frequency and severity levels that realistically reflect default premiums and loss levels observed in the marketplace.     

Taxes, Points and Rationality in the Mortgage Market

This paper addresses the issue of why discount points exist in the mortgage market. In the process of resolving these questions, a number of insights into the mortgage market are achieved. An important principle is that changes in loan structure due to points, prepayments or other deviations in the typical mortgage have no impact on the competitive rate of return. Thus, the essential role of points is not to raise the effective rate of return nor are they the purchase price a risk-averter desires for an option to prepay. Instead it is taxes that play the critical role.     

FHA Terminations: A Prelude to Rational Mortgage Pricing

Recent models of pricing mortgages and/or mortgage insurance have used option-pricing models as their framework. The focus is usually on default, which is viewed as a put option (to sell the house to the lender in exchange for the mortgage) and prepayment, which is viewed as a call option (to buy the mortgage from the lender). Analysis then uses techniques like those used to price options in capital markets. Unfortunately, homeowners do not seem to exercise their option as quickly as do traders in organized markets. We estimate prepayment and default functions, which are meant to be a first step in developing modified, option-based models of mortgage pricing.     

An Empirical Investigation of the Contingent-Claims Approach to Pricing Residential Mortgage Debt

Despite the growth of theoretical mortgage-pricing research, few empirical tests have been published. The primary objective of this paper is to provide an empirical test of the contingent-claims approach to pricing residential mortgages. This is accomplished by examining the differences between contract mortgage rates generated by the theoretical contingent-claims model and corresponding actual rates observed for 121 consecutive months from January 1981 through January 1991. We find that the contingent-claims model produces an unbiased prediction of changes in actual rates.     

房地产抵押贷款二级市场初探

目前我国房地产抵押贷款金融机构中存在着抵押贷款资金缺乏，抵押风险大的两大问题，针对这一问题笔认为尽快建立房地产抵押贷款二级市场是解决上述两个问题的关键，本论述了二级市场在解决上述两个问题中所发挥的作用，以及建立房地产抵押贷款二级市场需要的条件。     

关于房贷利率上调对房地产市场影响的几点分析

本文在2006年4月28日央行出台新的住房贷款利率政策以控制目前房地产市场过热现象的背景下,对房地产政策加以分析。通过对以往政策的回顾和新出台的以金融手段抑制需求的政策的分析,得出长期控制房地产市场过热问题的关键是控制供给政策和控制需求政策的配套运用。     

关矛房贷利率上调对房地产市场影响的几点分析

本文在2006年4月28日央行出台新的住房贷款利率政策以控制目前房地产市场过热现象的背景下，对房地产政策加以分析。通过对以往政策的回顾和新出台的以金融手段抑制需求的政策的分析，得出长期控制房地产市场过热问题的关键是控制供给政策和控制需求政策的配套运用。     

Mortgage Pricing: What Have We Learned So Far?†

Much progress has been achieved in the valuation of call options and mortgages. Preliminary evidence suggests that the observed term structure of interest rates (the full structure, not just the end-points) and a reasonable estimate of the volatility of spot rates is sufficient for pricing purposes. Knowledge of the precise nature of the interest-rate process and the exact market price of interest-rate risk, the not-well-identified determinants of the term structure, are not necessary for pricing. Moreover, the number of interest-rate state variables is also of little import, again holding the term structure and rate volatility constant.     

Regressive Interest Rate Expectations and Mortgage Instrument Choice in the United Kingdom Housing Market

The paper considers the choice of mortgage instrument when the rate of interest is fixed for a short duration, with reversion to a variable (bullet) rate mortgage contract. The research is the first direct test for regressive interest rate expectations using United Kingdom data while testing for wealth and portfolio effects. The econometric modeling uses a variety of nonparametric and parametric techniques to control for classification error in the dependent variable. There is evidence that households adopt regressive interest rate expectations. The lack of statistical significance of wealth and portfolio effects confirms the short run cash flow perspective of United Kingdom mortgage choices.     

Collusive Communication and Pricing Coordination in a Retail Gasoline Market

This paper studies how communication is used by a retail gasoline cartel in Australia to coordinate price increases, a role of communication in collusion not highlighted by Genesove and Mullin (Am Econ Rev 91(3): 379–398, 2001). A unique data set from the trial record allows for quantifying not only the pricing dynamics, but also the communication patterns. Both empirical and narrative evidence suggests the collusive communication and pricing behavior is well captured by the price cycle equilibrium of the Maskin and Tirole (Econometrica 56(3): 571–599, 1988) model.     

Effects of New Product Pricing on the Evolution of Market Structure

Conventional wisdom suggests that market structure is a determinant of marketing strategy; however, in the case of market pioneers, no market structure exists prior to product introduction. William Redmond examines strategy influences on market structure by assessing the effects of pioneer firms' initial price strategies (penetration pricing versus skim pricing) on the development of subsequent market concentration during the growth stage of the product life cycle. The article describes the analysis of longitudinal data, leading to the detection of significant differences in the evolution of concentration resulting from the different price strategies. Markets pioneered by skim pricers tended to have lower levels of concentration during the growth stage but rose to levels comparable to penetration markets by the onset of market maturity.     

Valuation and Efficiency in the Market for Creatively Financed Houses

This paper examines two alternative approaches to valuing the impact of creative financing on housing prices. The cash equivalence adjustment which is the generally accepted approach is compared to an approach known as the financed fee valuation adjustment which is argued to be theoretically superior. A sample of 45 matched pairs of condominium sales in which one of the units is creatively financed and the other is conventionally financed is employed to test which model is most effective at explaining the market adjustment for creative financing. The authors are unable to reject the hypothesis that the housing market being examined is efficient and that the financed fee valuation adjustment is a superior model for valuing the impact of creative financing.     

市场化条件下我国天然气定价原则浅议

我国天然气产品的生命周期处于市场成长期,在市场化条件下,作为可替代产品,我国天然气的定价将不可避免地采用竞争性定价原则,与可替代产品价格进行比较。天然气与可替代能源的比价原则是等热值等价。天然气按热值计量的经济性和科学性是不容忽视的,这也一定是我国未来天然气计量的发展趋势。天然气的热值随组分中各成分含量的不同有很大区别。因此,有必要根据天然气的组分计算其热值。     

中国市场结构和市场绩效关系实证研究--从消费者角度识别两者的关系

本文利用我国44个行业中的367家企业共计103616位消费者的满意度数据，以及这44个行业的产业集中度数据，通过结构方程模型，实证研究了我国市场结构和市场绩效之间的关系。研究结果表明，与美国等西方国家不同，处于市场经济条件下转型过程中的中国市场，主要是市场绩效决定市场结构，而不是市场结构决定市场效率。     

Market Power,Efficiency and the Dispersion of Systematic Risk

A number of studies have used the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to integrate product market and financial theories of the firm. We reexamine the relationship between product market structure and systematic risk at the firm and industry level. We show that theory yields no testable implications at the firm level. We show, however, that there is a relationship between the intraindustry dispersion of systematic risk and industry concentration which depends on the causes and consequences of concentration. Estimates of the relationship between the intraindustry variance of and concentration for a 1987 cross-section of U.S. industries suggest that concentration allows larger firms to exercise market power.     

Excess Returns, Inflation and the Efficiency of the Housing Market

This paper examines the influence that unexpected inflation has on the reported time pattern in housing returns. Two alternative models of expected inflation are used to study its effect: a rational expectations model and an adaptive expectations model. Findings indicate that both estimates of unexpected inflation are positively correlated with excess returns to housing. If inflation expectations are assumed to have been adaptive during the 1970s and early 1980s, serial correlation in the excess returns is shown to be greatly diminished when adjusted to control for unexpected inflation. However, substantial inertia in the pattern of the adjusted return series remains.     

改革过渡期南方电力市场定价机制与交易模式探讨

通过分析南方电网联网运行以来的电力交易情况,提出在电力体制改革过渡期,得到潜在联网效益最有效的办法是建立一个基于成本定价的电力市场。这种市场有四种交易模式,其中分级的区域电力市场模式投入最省,获得的效益较多。