A Computational Model of Coordination for the Design of Organizational Decision Support Systems

The Information Technology (IT) for realizing Organizational Decision Support Systems (ODSS) is in a nascent stage of development. This is particularly true in the area of coordination, which is a critical element of ODSS, and which distinguishes ODSS research from earlier research in Group DSS and individually oriented DSS. As a first step in ODSS coordination research, alternative representation schemes need to be examined in terms of both their match with the prevailing needs of organizations and of existing IT approaches that can be brought to bear. Matching ODSS needs with coordination representation requirements is examined by using several supporting reference disciplines including foundational DSS and recent ODSS research frameworks/architectures. Existing IT approaches are adapted from the reference disciplines of Active DSS, Distributed Artificial Intelligence (DAI), and Mathematical/Computational Organization Theory (MCOT) to operationalize a computational model of coordination that: (1) embodies the philosophies of Active DSS—including the idea that automated intelligent agents can play a significant role in supporting decision makers by independently carrying out rudimentary tasks to support the various phases of a decision making process; (2) adapts DAI and IT approaches to reflect practical human organizational realities including what we refer to as the ‘Open-Ended Knowledge World‘, and the evolutionary nature of organizations—whereby ODSS coordination representations will be subjected to almost constant revision due to both external environment disruptions and internal events that require adjustments to a preliminary plan; and (3) reflects the fact that organizational goals are often vague, which implies that a coordination representation should be sufficiently robust to reflect ad hoc analysis accommodating of strategy changes.     

Management control of complex,mission-critical processes

Because the failure of complex, mission-critical systems—such as certain process control and manufacturing operations—can be exceptionally costly to an organization, appropriate management control of these systems is imperative. This paper presents a theory of management control of complex systems that is the potential basis for an intelligent DSS, which would be capable of supporting human agents monitoring complex systems. The theory is derived from field studies of agent decision making under procedural guidance, and it focuses on the most crucial—and interesting—aspect of agent behavior, i.e. the decision to deviate from a procedure when the procedure is considered detrimental to the achievement of organizational goals. The theory is instantiated in a computer model of the agents' decision processes. The computer model in turn embeds a simulation of the agents' situation and goal assessment processes that produce procedural non-compliance. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Valuing Companies with Cash‐Flow@Risk

The classic DCF approach to capital budgeting—the one that MBA students in the world's top business schools have been taught for the last 30 years—begins with the assumption that the corporate investment decision is “independent of” the financing decision. That is, the value of a given investment opportunity should not be affected by how a company is financed, whether mainly with debt or with equity. A corollary of this capital structure “irrelevance” proposition says that a company's investment decision should also not be influenced by its risk management policy—by whether a company hedges its various price exposures or chooses to leave them unhedged. In this article, the authors—one of whom is the CFO of the French high‐tech firm Gemalto—propose a practical alternative to DCF that is based on a concept they call “cash‐flow@risk.” Implementation of the concept involves dividing expected future cash flow into two components: a low‐risk part, or “certainty equivalent,” and a high‐risk part. The two cash flow streams are discounted at different rates (corresponding to debt and equity) when estimating their value. The concept of cash‐flow@risk derives directly from, and is fully consistent with, the concept of economic capital that was developed by Robert Merton and Andre Perold in the early 1990s and that has become the basis of Value at Risk (or VaR) capital allocation systems now used at most financial institutions. But because the approach in this article focuses on the volatility of operating cash flows instead of asset values, the authors argue that an internal capital allocation system based on cash‐flow@risk is likely to be much more suitable than VaR for industrial companies.     

What Public Company Directors Should Know About Going Private

In a panel moderated by the President of the New York Chapter of the National Association of Corporate Directors, a prominent M&A banker and a veteran independent director discuss the role of “special committees” in managing conflicts of interest faced by top management when faced with (or seeking) bids to take their companies private. Among the board's most important responsibilities are establishing and maintaining a competitive bidding process—one that is equally open to all potential buyers—while regulating the flow of information in such a way that the amount released is commensurate with the “seriousness” of the bid. In the end, the special committee must satisfy itself that its decision to sell—or not to sell—the company reflects the diverse preferences and risk profiles of its unaffiliated shareholders.     

A longitudinal study of applicable decision aids for detailed tasks in a financial audit

This paper reports on changes in the extent to which decision aids are perceived to be useful for performing detailed financial audit tasks. The decision aids investigated were automation (AU), decision support systems (DSS), and knowledge-based expert systems (KES). Data were collected from highly experienced mangers and partners from various international accounting firms in 1988 and 1996. The participants were asked to select the decision aid they viewed as applicable for each task in a comprehensive inventory of audit tasks. While the data indicate an increase in the choice of tasks for decision aids use between the two years, the fact remains that a majority of the responses (79% in 1988 and 69% in 1996) indicated human processing (HP) only. We present a list of detailed tasks for which at least 50% of the responses indicated some form of an applicable decision aid in 1996. We also discuss implications for practice and research. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Knowledge-based management support: an application of diagnostic reasoning to corporate financing decisions

The corporate finance application domain is studied as part of designing a diagnostic decision support system (DSS) for analyzing the financial ‘health’ of a modern corporation. A conceptual model of the financial management application domain is developed to capture the inherent interactions among financial domain objects. We view the objective of financial management to be to maintain a balance among financial performance measures, such as profitability, liquidity, dividend policy, and capital structure. We represent knowledge regarding these performance measures together with the related financial accounting data. A high-level structure to the diagnostic reasoning process is introduced via a classification scheme that identifies the relevant problem categories. The proposed approach supports the interpretation of domain relationships when formulating corrective measures. More importantly, it provides proactive management support by facilitating the analysis of domain facts for probable contingencies. The approach is illustrated with examples. Copyright © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investment in concealable information by biased experts

We study a persuasion game in which biased—possibly opposed—experts strategically acquire costly information that they can then conceal or reveal. We show that information acquisition decisions are strategic substitutes when experts have linear preferences over a decision maker's beliefs. The logic turns on how each expert expects the decision maker's posterior to be affected by the presence of other experts should he not acquire information that would turn out to be favorable. The decision maker may prefer to solicit advice from just one biased expert even when others—including those biased in the opposite direction (singular)—are available.     

The determinants of Norwegian exporters’ foreign exchange risk management

Abstract

This paper examines foreign exchange (FX) hedging by Norwegian exporting firms to provide empirical evidence on the determinants of the hedging decision. The paper contributes to prior studies by, first, focusing on exporters to ensure that the companies in the sample have FX exposure, thereby allowing a more rigorous test of the theoretical determinants of hedging, and, secondly, in contrast to most previous studies that have focused on FX external hedging instruments, the use of both internal and external instruments is examined. Univariate, multivariate and multinominal analyses all provide evidence consistent with the firm value maximization hypotheses of underinvestment and risk aversion. Also, the following characteristics of firms—size, extent of internationalization and liquidity—are found to be related to the decision to hedge FX risk. However, the evidence on the links between the firm characteristics and the decision to hedge is not consistent across internal and external FX hedgers, and also varies for individual hedging instruments. Therefore it is argued that the empirical evidence on the theoretical determinants cannot be generalized to cover the full range of FX hedging strategies (which includes internal hedging instruments). Unlike empirical studies for other countries the evidence for Norwegian firms does not support the hypothesis that the avoidance of financial distress and the need to resort to external capital markets is a significant determinant of the hedging decision. Whilst the evidence suggests that country-specific factors may play a role in determining the use of FX hedging, it does not imply that the different policies adopted are necessarily inconsistent with the firm value maximization hypothesis.     

Individual versus institutional investing

This paper first describes the analytic approach that Markowitz used in developing his portfolio theory. Developing a game-of-life simulation is a parallel approach for modelling individual financial management. To develop a realistic simulator will require deciding what goals are essential to the family planning process, formulating optimizable subproblems, using technology to interpret and record decisions, and developing decision rules which prove robust in the model and can be implemented in practice.     

AMTexpert: An Expert Decision Support System for the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax

AMTexpert is a prototype of an expert decision support system (EDSS) for the corporate alternative minimum tax (AMD. The corporate AMT was introduced as part of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 in order to force US corporations to pay more tax. The complicated and interrelated nature of the AMT system has made compliance and planning even more difficult for corporate taxpayers. Given the complexities of the corporate AMT, significant benefits may accrue from the development of an EDSS. In effect, an EDSS combines the judgmental benefits of an expert system (ES) with the computational benefits of a decision support system (DSS). AMTexpert is menu driven with six interdependent phases. The heart of the system is a ‘scoreboard’ used to compare and evaluate alternative tax positions. Context-sensitive advice and explanations are provided to guide the user. The system was validated and evaluated by two groups of outside experts. AMTexpert demonstrates that an EDSS may be developed from existing tax and systems software.     

Relational delegation

We analyze a cheap talk game with partial commitment by the principal. We first treat the principal's commitment power as exogenous and then endogenize it in an infinitely repeated game. We characterize optimal decision making for any commitment power and show when it takes the form of threshold delegation—in which case the agent can make any decision below a threshold—and centralization—in which case the agent has no discretion. For small biases, threshold delegation is optimal for any smooth distribution. Outsourcing can only be optimal if the principal's commitment power is sufficiently small.     

Investment Policy and Exit-Exchange Offers Within Financially Distressed Firms

This article examines the conflict of interest between shareholders and bondholders in a setting in which firms can renegotiate the terms of existing debt with public debtholders. In particular, we consider one of the most common types of debt restructuring: the exit-exchange offer. Our analysis explores the relation between exit-exchange offers and investment choice by the manager, and it concludes that managers, acting strategically on behalf of shareholders, may select inefficient investment projects in order to enhance their bargaining position vis-a-vis creditors. Holding the upside potential of an investment project fixed, managers/shareholders prefer projects with lower payoffs in states of bankruptcy because it induces individual bondholders to accept poorer terms in a debt-for-debt exit-exchange offer, thus generating a greater residual for shareholders in states of solvency. Additionally, we show how the investment inefficiencies in our analysis depend on (i) the inability of bondholders to coordinate their actions; (ii) the ability of managers to commit to suboptimal investment projects; and (iii) the coupling of an individual bondholder's decision to tender and her decision to consent to allow the firm to strip fiduciary covenants. We suggest conditions under which a ban on coupled exit-exchange offers—or alternatively, constraints on “debt-for-debt” exchanges—would be efficiency-enhancing.     

The Next Wave of ESG Integration: Lessons from Institutional Investors

In this panel that also took place at the recent SASB Symposium, senior representatives of four leading institutional investors—BlackRock, Ca lPERS, Ca lSTRS, and Wells Fargo—emphasize the relevance of ESG data for “mainstream” investors and the importance of integrating it with traditional fundamental analysis rather than viewing it as a separate set of reporting responsibilities. Moreover, the logical place for integrating ESG information is in the most forwardlooking section of financial reports, the “Management Discussion and Analysis,” or “MD&A,” which would be strengthened by including more and better information about the companies' ESG risks and initiatives. Some panelists noted that ESG information is likely to be valued by investors because of its ability to shed light on “idiosyncratic” risks that are not captured by the traditional risk factors that have long dominated asset pricing models. Others described ESG information as helpful in evaluating and comparing the “quality” of management in portfolio companies. But all agreed that efforts like the SASB's to standardize ESG data are essential to successful integration of that data into the decision‐making process of large mainstream investors. And as the panelists also made clear, there is an important generational component to the growing movement to integrate ESG into mainstream investing, with Millenials—and particularly Millenial women—showing especially strong support.     

The Economics of Organizational Architecture

Drawing on the work of Michael Jensen and William Meckling, the co‐formulators of “agency cost theory,” the authors argue that there are two main challenges in designing the structure of organizations: (1) the “rights assignment” problem—that is, ensuring that decision‐making authority is vested in managers and employees with the “specific knowledge” necessary to make the best decisions; and (2) the “control” or “agency” problem—designing performance‐evaluation and reward systems that give decision‐makers strong incentives to exercise their decision rights in ways that increase the long‐run value of the organization. The authors provide a number of instructive applications and extensions of the Jensen‐Meckling organizational framework. Using a series of short case studies that range from the Barings Brothers' debacle in the early 1990s and the decade‐long restructuring of ITT to the cases of McDonald's and Century 21, the authors demonstrate the importance of designing performance‐measurement and reward systems that are consistent with the assignment of decision rights. In so doing, the authors also work to dispel the widespread notion, popular among advocates of Total Quality Management, that the widespread use of performance measures and incentives undermines efforts to promote teamwork within large organizations. A number of brief case histories of companies like Xerox and Mary Kay Cosmetics are used to show the critical role of performance measurement and individual rewards in reinforcing a quality‐centered corporate culture. As the authors conclude, “It is a mistake to think of the ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ aspects of organizations as mutually exclusive or even as competing.”     

Bank acquisition of mortgage firms and stockholders' wealth: An empirical analysis

This paper examines the behavior of the returns on the securities of bank holding companies (BHCs) acquiring mortgage firms after the announcement of such an acquisition and the release of the Federal Reserve Board's decision. The stockholders of acquiring BHCs do not realize abnormal returns following the announcement of the acquisition of a mortgage firm. This reconfirms previous findings in unregulated industries and is consisten with the hypothesis that any economic rent which is generated by such an acquisition is captured by the acquired mortgage firm: This implies that there exist BHCs — other than the acquiring one — that could also affect a profitable merger with the mortgage firm. Another finding is that stockholders of BHCs that were 3enied permission to acquire mortgage firms sustained significant losses during the five weeks following the Board's decision.     

Contracting for information under imperfect commitment

We study optimal contracting under imperfect commitment in a model with an uninformed principal and an informed agent. The principal can commit to pay the agent for his advice but retains decision‐making authority. Under an optimal contract, the principal should (i) never induce the agent to fully reveal what he knows—even though this is feasible—and (ii) never pay the agent for imprecise information. We compare optimal contracts under imperfect commitment to those under full commitment as well as to delegation schemes. We find that gains from contracting are greatest when the divergence in the preferences of the principal and the agent is moderate.     

On the time series measure of conservatism: a threshold autoregressive model

In this note we propose an alternative test specification for Basu’s (1997) time series measure of conservatism that is related to the threshold unit root test of Enders and Granger (1998). We argue that a regression of changes in earnings on the lagged levels—rather than lagged changes—, including an interaction term for negative values, has three conceptual advantages compared to the conventional setup: (1) a smooth, non-oscillating impulse-response pattern to an unexpected shock in earnings (2) a more efficient estimate of persistence in the long run and (3) it can be extended to higher order autoregressive processes. We apply both approaches to a common dataset of firms from the S&P500 index. We confirm the conventional finding that negative shocks are transitory and display stronger mean reversion than positive shocks. However, while most of the literature reports mixed evidence on positive shocks, we find clear evidence that positive shocks are transitory as well. In a Monte Carlo simulation we explain this finding by documenting that larger standard errors in the Basu specification can lead to incorrect inference when the decision between persistent and transitory shocks is close.     

Corporate Insurance Strategy: The Case of British Petroleum

The authors provide a fundamental rethinking of how corporations should evaluate various kinds of risks and risk management solutions—a rethinking that leads to a major shift in British Petroleum's approach to insuring property and casualty losses, product liability suits, and other insurable events. Conventional corporate practice—and until the early 1990s (when this article was written) the longstanding policy of BP and most large oil companies—was to insure against large losses while self‐insuring against smaller ones. In this article, the authors explain why BP has chosen to go against the conventional wisdom and instead buy insurance for mainly smaller losses while self‐insuring larger ones. The BP decision came down to factors affecting the market supply of insurance as well as the corporate demand for it. On the demand side, the authors demonstrate that the primary source of demand for insurance by large public companies is not, as standard insurance textbooks assume, to transfer risk away from the corporation's owners. Because corporate stockholders and bondholders effectively manage the effects of such risks by diversifying their own portfolios, the corporate demand for insurance in BP's case stems from the insurers' comparative advantage in evaluating and monitoring BP's smaller risks and in processing claims. On the supply side, the authors explain why the capacity of insurance companies and markets to underwrite very large or highly specialized exposures—when compared to the industry expertise and financial resources of companies like BP—is quite limited, and likely to remain so. Since premiums would be experience‐rated and prior years' losses simply rolled into the following years' premiums, there would be no effective transfer of risk, and so no gain to BP from buying insurance.     

支出周期:构造政府预算会计框架的逻辑起点——兼论我国政府会计改革的核心命题与战略次序

用以刻画预算运营流程的支出周期概念是构造预算会计框架最适当的逻辑起点。这一框架能清楚简明地表达各预算运营阶段的关键预算信息,并形成一个循环往复、逻辑严密的完整信息链,为监控预算执行过程、管理财政风险、改进决策制定和强化受托责任提供极大便利。主要由于缺乏清晰的支出周期概念,目前学界对预算会计的概念框架和信息结构的认识依然存在不少误区,可能导致对政府会计改革的核心命题和战略次序的迷失与偏差。     

CAPITAL ADEQUACY AND THE VALUATION OF LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKING ORGANIZATIONS

Bankers argue that regulatory agencies require excessive capital adequacy. As a consequence, banks cannot achieve optimal capital structure. This study investigates the capital adequacy issue for bank holding companies over the 1974—1983 period, one of the most turbulent periods in recent banking history. During this time, capital is never excessive from the stockholders' viewpoint, and financial markets, on average, perceive capital levels as inadequate. Assuming the public wants no lower capital levels than shareholders, recent regulatory action to require higher capital ratios is a Pareto superior decision.