Bailouts in a Federation

The recent move towards decentralization in countries such as Spain, Hungary, and South Africa and the difficulties that central governments have had in dealing with fiscal irresponsibility on the part of regional governments in countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and India has made the study of transfer systems one of the most important areas of research in federalism today. A model of a federation is developed in which regional governments act as Nash competitors with each other but are first-movers in a Stackelberg game with the central government. The central government finds that it will maximize its expected votes by increasing transfers as regions borrow. This bail out of regional governments creates a regional soft budget constraint and results in two incentive effects, a common pool effect on tax payments and an opportunity cost effect. The soft budget constraint lowers the opportunity cost of borrowing for the region, but also increases the tax-cost since a portion of the borrowing must be paid for through increased taxes. The common property problem associated with tax payments implies that the increased tax cost must be less than the decrease in the opportunity cost (leading to excessive borrowing) unless the central government increases grants to other regions when it institutes a bailout. Somewhat surprisingly, in the latter case the additional increased taxes may increase costs enough to offset the lower opportunity cost resulting from the bailout, leading to efficient borrowing decisions as in the case of a hard budget constraint. The results are also useful for understanding the empirical estimation of soft budget constraints.     

个利驱动、合成谬误与宏观约束——关于当前金融创新价值回归的思考

通过梳理我国金融创新历程和现状发现,当前银行业基于各种目的开展的诸多金融创新看似符合自身理性,但总体形成合成谬误,本文以信托为例进行深入分析,并构建软预算约束动态博弈模型探索金融创新的驱动机理,对金融业完善金融创新路径和监管部门改进监管方式方法提出建议。     

政治联系、预算软约束与政府补助的配置效率——基于中国民营上市公司的经验研究

本文以2004～2008年的民营上市公司为样本,实证研究了民营企业的政治联系对预算软约束及政府补助效率的影响。研究发现,政治联系是一把双刃剑:一方面,政治联系的民营企业容易受到政府干预,由此承担了较重的雇员负担,也因此获得了较多的政府补助,从而支持了林毅夫等对预算软约束的政策性负担层面的解释。另一方面,虽然政治联系未直接发挥关系作用,但会增加雇员负担一定时的政府补助。进一步地,在政治联系的民营企业中,政府补助对公司绩效的促进作用显著低于无政治联系的民营企业,揭示了政治联系改变了政府补助的流向,降低了政府补助资金的配置效率。     

利率市场化对商业银行投融资行为的影响

随着利率市场化改革的深入，银行的投融资行为将受到利率波动增大的影响。更严格的资本充足性要求并不必然引导银行减少对风险项目的投资。银行利润更大的波动性加大了银行的破产风险，而预算软约束则减弱了破产威胁对银行投融资行为的警示作用，使银行更愿意冒自己不能承担的风险，从而给整个金融系统带来更高的潜在不稳定性。     

财政约束软化:表现、后果及其治理

财政约束主要表现在财政支出约束、财政收入约束和预算原则约束等几个方面.在财政约束软化的情况下,政府可能会产生这样几种倾向:公共物品的不合意供给、盈利化行为、过度负债.在处于经济转型期的中国,财政约束软化的现象大量存在,由此而引发了种种社会经济矛盾.若想解决矛盾,其根本出路就在于建立法治财政,实现财政约束的法治化.     

Asset pricing with heterogeneous preferences,beliefs, and portfolio constraints

Portfolio constraints are widespread and have significant effects on asset prices. This paper studies the effects of constraints in a dynamic economy populated by investors with different risk aversions and beliefs about the rate of economic growth. The paper provides a comparison of various constraints and conditions under which these constraints help match certain empirical facts about asset prices. Under these conditions, borrowing and short-sale constraints decrease stock return volatilities, whereas limited stock market participation constraints amplify them. Moreover, borrowing constraints generate spikes in interest rates and volatilities and have stronger effects on asset prices than short-sale constraints.     

Short selling,margin buying and stock return in China market

It is well argued that short sellers are informed traders, and short interests predict future stock returns significantly. However, most researches neglect margin buyers, as twin sisters of short sellers, and keep silent about their impact on stock returns. In this article, we demonstrate that margin buyers significantly impact predictive power of conventional short measures. We document that conventional short measures neglecting margin‐buying activities, short interest ratio (SIR) and days to cover (DTC) fail to predict stock return unless our analysis is confined to lightly margin bought stocks. We also show that short‐margin trading ratio (SMTR), revised short measure with consideration of margin buying, predict stock return more sharply. What is more, we can form profitable portfolios by the new short measure.     

内部营销、员工满意、服务质量与顾客满意关系研究

为了确定内部营销、员工满意、服务质量和顾客满意之间的因果关系,本文在文献研究的基础上构建了内部营销—员工满意—服务质量—顾客满意关系模型,并以35家商业银行的员工和顾客为实证样本,采用因子分析、结构方程模型检验了模型的假设关系。研究发现:内部营销不能直接影响顾客满意,但可以通过员工满意和服务质量而间接影响顾客满意;员工满意不但直接影响顾客满意,并通过服务质量间接影响顾客满意;服务质量既直接影响顾客满意,也是内部营销和员工满意发挥作用的中间环节。     

农业供应链金融视角的农户信贷约束缓解效应研究——来自湖南农户的经验证据

采用多元多值非条件Logistic回归方法,依据湖南省50个县(市、区)1059个农户样本数据,考察农业供应链金融对农户信贷约束的缓解效应。结果显示：农户参与农业供应链金融能够缓解供给型与需求型农户信贷约束,缓解效应随着农户收入增长、金融发展和农户社会资本提升而减弱,机制检验证实了信息对称、信用等级、交易成本、抵押替代在缓解农户信贷约束过程中起到部分中介效应。鉴于此,需要在创新模式、优化环境以及加强引导上着力发展农业供应链金融。     

Does environmental labeling exacerbate heavily polluting firms’ financial constraints? Evidence from China

The Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection has enacted an environmental policy that restricts the investment activities of heavily polluting firms by increasing their financial constraints. In this paper, we examine the impact of environmental labeling on firms’ financial constraints. We document that the financial constraints of heavily polluting firms increase more than those of other firms after the issuance of environmental labeling. The debt and equity financing channels of heavily polluting firms are restricted, with smaller bank loans and less equity issuance in the future. The effect is stronger in firms that make a smaller contribution to the local government’s gross domestic product, receive greater media coverage, and are located in heavily polluted provinces. The environmental regulation is effective in increasing the environmentally friendly practices and decreasing the performance growth of heavily polluting firms. Our findings not only contribute to the growing literature on the factors influencing financial constraints, identifying the effects of non-monetary factors on financial constraints, but also provide more evidence for the underlying mechanism of efficient environmental policy. Our results also provide practical suggestions for investors and institutions on evaluating firms and for regulatory authorities on further implementing environmental policy.     

Inventories,sales uncertainty,and financial strength

We investigate the empirical linkages between sales uncertainty and firms’ inventory investment behavior while controlling for firms’ financial strength. Using large panels of manufacturing firms from several European countries we find that higher sales uncertainty leads to larger stocks of inventories. We also identify an indirect effect of sales uncertainty on inventory accumulation through the financial strength of firms. Our results provide evidence that financial strength mitigates the adverse effects of uncertainty.     

中国农村金融服务高质量发展主要障碍是供给约束吗？

农村金融服务质量相对不高是制约\"三农\"发展的重要障碍之一.基于金融资源空间配置实证模型和农户融资意愿Probit模型,考察当前我国农村金融服务高质量发展的制约因素,结果表明,供给约束是当前农村金融服务高质量发展的主要障碍,影响农民收入水平及农村经济发展.鉴此,解决供给约束问题宜通过政府政策\"自上而下\"调节,提高农村金融服务水平.     

Optimal insurance in the presence of reinsurance

This paper studies an optimal insurance and reinsurance design problem among three agents: policyholder, insurer, and reinsurer. We assume that the preferences of the parties are given by distortion risk measures, which are equivalent to dual utilities. By maximizing the dual utility of the insurer and jointly solving the optimal insurance and reinsurance contracts, it is found that a layering insurance is optimal, with every layer being borne by one of the three agents. We also show that reinsurance encourages more insurance, and is welfare improving for the economy. Furthermore, it is optimal for the insurer to charge the maximum acceptable insurance premium to the policyholder. This paper also considers three other variants of the optimal insurance/reinsurance models. The first two variants impose a limit on the reinsurance premium so as to prevent insurer to reinsure all its risk. An optimal solution is still layering insurance, though the insurer will have to retain higher risk. Finally, we study the effect of competition by permitting the policyholder to insure its risk with an insurer, a reinsurer, or both. The competition from the reinsurer dampens the price at which an insurer could charge to the policyholder, although the optimal indemnities remain the same as the baseline model. The reinsurer will however not trade with the policyholder in this optimal solution.     

How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data

Housing is a major component of wealth. Since house prices fluctuate considerably over time, it is important to understand how these fluctuations affect households’ consumption decisions. Rising house prices may stimulate consumption by increasing households’ perceived wealth, or by relaxing borrowing constraints. This paper investigates the response of household consumption to house prices using UK micro data. We estimate the largest effect of house prices on consumption for older homeowners, and the smallest effect, insignificantly different from zero, for younger renters. This finding is consistent with heterogeneity in the wealth effect across these groups. In addition, we find that regional house prices affect regional consumption growth. Predictable changes in house prices are correlated with predictable changes in consumption, particularly for households that are more likely to be borrowing constrained, but this effect is driven by national rather than regional house prices and is important for renters as well as homeowners, suggesting that UK house prices are correlated with aggregate financial market conditions.     

国有企业负债与预算软约束

本文分析了作为所有者的政府、最大债权人的国有银行对国有企业预算软约束的状况。试图从这个角度 ,为国有企业高负债型的资本结构提供一个解释。     

中国收入等级不同的城镇居民预防性储蓄动机研究

将流动性约束条件纳入Dynan(1993)模型对其进行扩展,构建出包含流动性约束、不确定性、实际利率变量的新预防性储蓄模型。理论与实证结果表明:该模型更能体现我国收入等级不同城镇居民的储蓄行为特征;在不确定性存在条件下,新引入的流动性约束变量会对面临流动性约束不同居民的储蓄行为产生不同程度、甚至不同方向的影响,其影响程度随居民面临流动性约束的不同而变化。同时发现转轨时期仍然偏紧的流动性约束和日益增强的不确定性是抑制我国消费需求增长,加大居民预防性储蓄动机的根源。     

The Mirrlees Approach to the Theory of Economic Policy

This paper summarizes James Mirrlees' key contribution to the theory of tax policy. It argues that the Mirrlees approach of viewing government as being constrained by imperfect information has changed profoundly how we look at the normative public policy. In this view, asymmetric information provides the limit to redistribution by restricting the efficiency-equity trade-off. It leads to consideration of other policy instruments for relaxing incentive constraints and improving the efficiency of redistributive policies. Some of these instruments include quantity controls, in-kind transfers and public provision or mandating of insurance, things we observe in practice.     

LEAPS introductions and the value of the underlying stocks

We examine the change in the value of the underlying stock associated with long-term option introduction. Analysis of the abnormal returns associated with LEAPS (Long-Term Equity Anticipation Security) introductions indicates a decline in firm value even after we control for the endogenous nature of the listing decision. However, the evidence does not support previously-offered explanations for the price change associated with option introductions. In particular, we do not find the predicted relations between the cumulative abnormal returns and variables associated with loosening of short sale constraints such as beta, proxies for the dispersion in investor beliefs, and change in relative short interest.