Modeling CLV: A test of competing models in the insurance industry

Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is one of the key metrics in marketing and is considered an important segmentation base. This paper studies the capabilities of a range of models to predict CLV in the insurance industry. The simplest models can be constructed at the customer relationship level, i.e. aggregated across all services. The more complex models focus on the individual services, paying explicit attention to cross buying, but also retention. The models build on a plethora of approaches used in the existing literature and include a status quo model, a Tobit II model, univariate and multivariate choice models, and duration models. For all models, CLV for each customer is computed for a four-year time horizon. We find that the simple models perform well. The more complex models are expected to better capture the richness of relationship development. Surprisingly, this does not lead to substantially better CLV predictions.

A generalized framework for estimating customer lifetime value when customer lifetimes are not observed

Measuring customer lifetime value (CLV) in contexts where customer defections are not observed, i.e. noncontractual contexts, has been very challenging for firms. This paper proposes a flexible Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based data augmentation framework for forecasting lifetimes and estimating customer lifetime value (CLV) in such contexts. The framework can be used to estimate many different types of CLV models—both existing and new. Models proposed so far for estimating CLV in noncontractual contexts have built-in stringent assumptions with respect to the underlying customer lifetime and purchase behavior. For example, two existing state-of-the-art models for lifetime value estimation in a noncontractual context are the Pareto/NBD and the BG/NBD models. Both of these models are based on fixed underlying assumptions about drivers of CLV that cannot be changed even in situations where the firm believes that these assumptions are violated. The proposed simulation framework—not being a model but an estimation framework—allows the user to use any of the commonly available statistical distributions for the drivers of CLV, and thus the multitude of models that can be estimated using the proposed framework (the Pareto/NBD and the BG/NBD models included) is limited only by the availability of statistical distributions. In addition, the proposed framework allows users to incorporate covariates and correlations across all the drivers of CLV in estimating lifetime values of customers.

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Cost of small business banking: a New Zealand study

The research reported in this article develops a model for assessing the cost of banking services faced by small businesses. The lack of price competition in the provision of small business banking services combined with limited transparency concerning actual fee levels prevents small businesses from readily estimating likely fee levels. Prior research and government reports note the difficulties faced by small business in relation to banking services and this research contributes to an understanding of the potential dead weight losses incurred resulting from poor signalling and information asymmetry and potentially a deficient public policy framework.

Testing a Model of Behavioral Intentions in the Republic of Macedonia: Differences Between the Private and the Public Sectors

In this study, we developed a model of unethical behavior intentions, collected data from managers of the private (n = 208) and the public (n = 307) sectors in the Republic of Macedonia, and tested our model across these two sectors. Results suggested that for both sectors, unethical behavior intentions were not related to the love of money and corporate ethical values, whereas irritation was negatively related to life satisfaction. Moreover, corporate ethical values were related to life satisfaction for the private sector only, whereas the love of money and unethical behavior intentions were related to irritation for the public sector only. Managers in the private sector had higher corporate ethical values, lower unethical behavior intentions, lower irritation, and higher life satisfaction than those in the public sector. There was no difference in the love of money. There were more bad apples in the public sector (34.85%) than in the private sector (23.56%). The strongest factor of unethical behavior intentions in the private and the public sectors␣was theft and corruption, respectively. Finally, for the culture-free (etic) model, the love of money was positively related to irritation. Corporate ethical values had a positive “double-whammy” effect: reducing irritation and enhancing life satisfaction. Unethical behavior intentions were positively related to irritation (a mediator), which was negatively related to life satisfaction. Our theory provides new insights regarding doing business in the Republic of Macedonia.

The shipping strategies of internet retailers: Evidence from internet book retailing

Managing the shipment of goods to consumers is one of the central aspects of retail competition on the internet. In this article, we analyze internet retailers’ shipping strategies using data from the internet book retailing industry. We find that, controlling for a variety of observable firm characteristics, firms with lower product prices offer lower shipping fees and higher quality shipping in terms of average delivery time, compared to firms with higher product prices. These patterns cannot be readily reconciled with a large class of models of competition under perfect consumer information. Theories based on imperfect consumer information can explain the findings better.

The impact of offshored and outsourced call service centers on customer appraisals

Firms are increasingly relying upon offshored and/or outsourced call centers to provide post-sales assistance to their customers. Although the motivation to engage in these practices is efficiency gains, the possibility exists that offshored and outsourced call centers may have a detrimental impact on customer appraisals. The aim of this research is to posit the conceptual reasons as to why differences may arise in customer evaluations from these practices. To this end, we rely on the homophily principle and hybrid organization theory to provide conceptual grounding, and utilize a company dataset of customer post-call evaluations to offer an initial test of the hypotheses.

Neighborhood effects and trial on the internet: Evidence from online grocery retailing

For traditional retailers the customer pool is largely bounded in space, whereas an Internet retailer can obtain customers from a wide geographical area. We examine customer trials at Netgrocer.com, and drawing on studies in marketing and economics conjecture that exposure spatially to proximate others (through direct social interaction or observation), can influence decisions of those who have yet to try. Trials arise from utility-maximizing behavior and the model is estimated as a discrete time hazard. The data span: (1) 29,701 residential zip codes, (2) 45 months of transactions since inception, and (3) zip code contiguity relationships. The estimated neighborhood effect is significantly positive and economically meaningful.

Estimating demand for cellular phone service under nonlinear pricing

Cellular phone carriers typically offer complicated nonlinear tariffs. Consumers make a discrete choice among several rate plans. Each plan has a nonlinear price schedule, and price is usually lower for in-network calls. I present an empirical framework to estimate demand under such nonlinear pricing schemes by using parsimonious carrier-level data and apply the estimation method to analyze the market in Taiwan. I evaluate the impacts of termination-based pricing schemes on the market structure by counterfactual simulations. There is no evidence showing that the network effect resulting from termination-based pricing has significant effects on market structure.

A Structural Model for Evaluating the Sector-specific Impacts of Preferential Trade Agreements

This paper develops and estimates a structural model of imperfect competition in international markets. The model incorporates a flexible non-linear demand framework with structural price equations. A general Conjectural Variation approach is developed to characterize strategic interaction. This allows the simultaneous evaluation of the sector-specific terms of trade effects of a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA), and the extent of international competition in the sector under consideration. The model is then used to evaluate the impact of the Lebanese–Egyptian PTA on the iron and steel import sector in Lebanon. Results confirm the need for a structural approach in the empirical assessment of PTAs.

Beyond plain vanilla: Modeling joint product assortment and pricing decisions

This paper investigates empirically the product assortment strategies of oligopolistic firms. We develop a framework that integrates product choice and price competition in a differentiated product market. The present model significantly improves upon the reduced-form profit functions typically used in the entry and location choice literature, because the variable profits that enter the product-choice decision are derived from a structural model of demand and price competition. Given the heterogeneity in consumers’ product valuations and responses to price changes, this is a critical element in the analysis of product assortment decisions. Relative to the literature on structural demand models, our results show that incorporating endogenous product choice is essential for policy simulations and may entail very different conclusions from settings where product assortment choices are held fixed.

Customer Relationship Management: A Strategic Perspective

Over the last decade and a half Customer Relationship Management (CRM) has developed into an area of major significance. However, there is considerable confusion in the academic and managerial literature about what is meant by CRM and how if differs from relationship marketing. Further, despite heavy investment by organizations in CRM, there is extensive reporting of CRM’s failure to achieve anticipated results in the literature. This article reviews the conceptual differences between CRM and relationship marketing and defines these terms. It argues that, in many organizations, CRM failures have occurred through a lack of strategic focus. Key strategic issues are identified. A CRM Strategy Matrix is presented which considers the strategic context of companies and the implications for the development of their CRM strategies. Four alternative approaches towards building customer relationships are identified and migration paths between them are reviewed. Implications for implementing CRM strategy and future research are discussed.

Quality of past performance: Impact on consumers’ responses to service failure

The conceptual model developed in this paper for the airline industry examines the relationship between quality of past service performance and consumers’ responses to service failures (causal attributions, emotions and satisfaction). The empirical results obtained indicate that for those consumers with higher perceptions of quality the causes underlying service failures are seen as less stable and less controllable by the firm than the causes identified by consumers with lower perceptions of quality. Attributions about the failure not only influence satisfaction directly but also moderate the effect of quality on satisfaction. We also analyse the mediating effect of negative emotions on the relationship between service failure attributions and consumer satisfaction.

R&;D in SMEs: a paradox?

This paper has three objectives: (1) to survey the relevant literature addressing the (apparent) paradox of Research & Development investments carried out within Small and Medium Enterprises; (2) to provide focused summaries of the articles in this special issue; (3) to draw some general conclusions in terms of policy implications.

Studying Ethical Judgments and Behavioral Intentions Using Structural Equations: Evidence from the Multidimensional Ethics Scale*

The linkage between ethical judgment and ethical behavioral intention was investigated. The Multidimensional Ethics Scale (MES) was used to measure ethical judgment ratings of hypothetical behaviors in retail, sales, and automobile repair scenarios. Confirmatory factor analysis on a sample of 300 undergraduate business students showed that a model with three latent variables representing three correlated ethical dimensions of moral equity, relativism, and contractualism, three correlated scenario latent variables, and correlated residuals presented a good fit to the data. Further, structural models of the relationship of ethical judgment to behavioral intentions revealed that behavioral intentions were more highly related to the scenario factors than to the ethical dimensions across three scenarios. Adding a method factor to the model improved goodness-of-fit and changed some structural model conclusions.

Fighting off the big guys: comparing competitive retail services strategies in industrialized and developing world settings

As global trends regarding increased mergers and acquisitions continue, small local retailers must learn how to fend off these strong attackers. We assess key services strategies when small-local retailers compete against large-national retailers in industrialized (USA) and developing world (black South African township) retail settings. Of key interest is how theories generated from industrialized world research apply in developing world settings. We found that small retailers fend off large national retailers using virtually identical strategies regardless of the level of economic development.

The business-to-business relationship dimensions in financial services markets

This paper discusses the nature of financial business relationships by drawing on the IMP Group’s theory of industrial relationships. It discusses, among other aspects, the interaction process between banks and their corporate clients, the longevity of relationships, the interdependence between both sides, and the atmosphere of financial services relationships. The conclusions are thought to be interesting and useful for the managers of firms and financial services when setting relationship marketing policies and for academic research on business-to-business services relationships. The field research was done in Portugal and the case method was used.

Measuring experienced emotions during service recovery encounters: construction and assessment of the ESRE scale

The role of emotions is increasingly gaining attention as a central element in understanding customer evaluations of service failure and recovery experiences. Despite the importance of emotions for service organizations, however, empirical investigations of customers’ emotional response to service recovery encounters remain scarce. A reason for this has been the absence of a valid and reliable measurement instrument for analyzing and comparing the emotions associated with different recovery experiences. Addressing this issue, the current paper presents the development and validation of a new scale specifically designed to measure experienced emotions during service recovery encounters (ESRE). The results show that the ESRE scale is a valid and reliable instrument, which should be helpful for empirically studying the role of emotional responses to service failure and recovery encounters.

The importance of non-linear relationships between attitude and behaviour in policy research

The relation between consumers’ attitude and behaviour is of importance in designing marketing and public policy measures. However, many empirical studies find only low effects of attitudes on behaviour. In this paper, we suggest that the conflicting evidence on the attitude-behaviour link is partly due to only extreme attitudes impacting behaviour. That is, possible non-linearities not detected by standard linear models could occur in the relationship between attitudes and behaviour. We present and compare alternative model specifications to assess the non-linear relationship. We test our view using empirical examples relating to the link between environmental concerns and the purchase of organic products, and the link between privacy concerns and the possession of loyalty cards. We find strong support for the appearance of a non-linear relationship between environmental concern and the purchase of organic products, while only weak support for such a relationship between privacy concern and the possession of loyalty cards.

Firm growth in industrial clusters of the United Kingdom

This article examines how firm growth is influenced by the strength of the industrial cluster in which the firm is located. It presents econometric estimates of firm growth for 56 two-digit industries in the UK. In about half of these industries, there is a positive and statistically significant association between firm growth and own-sector employment. Significant associations between firm growth and other-sector employment are less common, but where these arise they are generally negative. We find that a weak rule of thumb applies in most industries: own-sector effects are positive or insignificant, while other-sector effects are negative or insignificant. Cluster effects are strongest in manufacturing, manufacturing-related, and infrastructure, but weaker in services.

Moving from customer lifetime value to customer equity

We study the consequence of moving from Customer Lifetime Value maximization to Customer Equity maximization. Customer equity has traditionally been seen as the discounted sum of the lifetime earnings from all current and future customers and thus it has been largely assumed that maximizing customer lifetime value would lead to maximum customer equity. We show that the transition from CLV to CE is not that straightforward. Although the CLV model is appropriate for managing a single non-replaceable customer, the application of a CLV model to the acquisition and valuation of customers as an ongoing concern for the firm leads to sub-optimal customer relationship management and acquisition strategies. This leads the firm following a CLV maximization approach to have a smaller and less profitable customer base than one that follows a CE maximization strategy.

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Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.