治理整顿期间价格改革的启示与回顾

1988年夏天，国家曾下决心在价格改革方面再迈出较大步伐，但由于前几年经济过热，需求过旺，经济结构失衡，货币发行过多，使我国经济生活中出现了明显的通货膨胀。全国零售物价总指数逐月上升，当年八月份与上年同期比较的上涨率已高达23．2％，群众对涨价的恐慌心理加剧，市场上出现了建国以来少有的“挤兑”、“抢购”风潮。面对这种局面。当年九月党的十三届三中全会决定适当放慢价格改革的步伐首先着力于治理经济环境，整顿经济秩序，把抑制通货膨胀当作整个经济环境，整顿经济秩序，把抑制通货膨胀当作整个经济工作的首要任务，为顺利推进价格改革创造条件。实践证明，这一决策是正确的。经过两年多的艰苦努力，治理整顿取得了显著的成效，宏观环境有了明显的改善，价格改革也取得了长足的进展，并积累了丰富的经验。     

谈市场价格调控体系的构建

谈市场价格调控体系的构建李东方通过１４年以市场为基本取向的价格改革，我国逐步放开了大部分商品价格，让绝大多数商品和劳务的价格回归市场，由市场形成，但放开价格并不是价格形成机制转换的全部内涵，并不意味着我国价格改革任务的完成。社会主义市场价格体制的建立...     

苏联价格改革的理论与实践

在社会主义国家的经济改革中,一般都可能出现物价上涨,甚至通货膨胀。苏联虽然未能例外,但物价上涨的幅度较小,相对比较好一点。这与他们的指导思想是密切相关的。本文拟就下列几个问题作些探索。     

论操纵价格型通货膨胀

论操纵价格型通货膨胀□纪显举对于需求拉上型通货膨胀、成本推进型通货膨胀和结构性通货膨胀，经济理论界已进行了较多探讨，但对于操纵价格型通货膨胀尚未探讨过，这不能不说是理论上的缺憾，本文拟对这一问题进行探讨，以弥补这一缺憾，并希冀对实际经济工作有大的助益...     

在治理整顿中推进“八五”时期价格改革

面对日益严重的通货膨胀，党的十三届三中全会及时作出了治理经济环境，整顿经济秩序的决定，并在短短两年取得成效，控制了物价高涨，抑制了通货膨胀，创造了较为宽松的价格改革环境。     

CPI预警：通胀幽灵下的中国经济

第一个问号结构性上涨是否会导致通货膨胀？ 背景板：针对今年的物价上涨，有人认为这是结构性上涨，中国不会出现恶性通胀，因为通胀的压力已经在价格改革中释放了。     

理顺工农产品比价对通货膨胀的影响研究

一方面农产品价格的长期抑制，工农产品价格“剪刀差”问题的累积成为制约中国经济转型与农业经济发展的主要问题：另一方面，理顺工农产品比价，农产品价格上涨，会通过食品价格的传导，引起居民消费价格总水平上涨，进而形成通货膨胀压力。“谷贱伤农、谷贵伤民”，调整农产品价格与引发通货膨胀的矛盾非常突出。本文研究了农产品价格上涨的客观性与逐步理顺工农产品比价的必要性，分析在此过程中引发通货膨胀的可能性，并提出在理顺工农产品比价的同时维持物价总水平基本稳定的对策措施。     

我国资产价格影响通货膨胀研究

通货膨胀一般是指物价普遍上涨，常用居民消费价格总指数(CPI)这一指标来表示，资产价格主要是指房地产、股票、国债、外汇等的价格。在我国的经济现实中，通货膨胀与资产价格是否存在相关性，或者诸如房地产与股票等资产价格是否有助于预测未来的通货膨胀，在制定宏观调控政策时如何把二者结合起来考虑，是一个值得研究的问题。     

人民币少发下的价格膨胀

通货是钱的意思,通货膨胀就是钱多了,这本身并没有什么不对,但学术上的通货膨胀却不是这个意思。大家平时所讲的通货膨胀是价格上涨的意思,指标就是CPI。CPI高了,就高呼通货膨胀来了。     

通货膨胀与汇率升值并存的分析——人民币对内贬值和对外升值的原因

中国通货膨胀和人民币对美元汇率上升同时出现,人民币对内贬值和对外升值形成了鲜明的对照。这一现象意味着购买力平价不成立,人民币的实际汇率正在上升。本文证明,人民币实际汇率上升反映了中国产品国际竞争力的提高和巴拉萨-萨谬尔森效应的逐渐显示。     

公众预期、通胀成因与经济波动牵扯

针对金融危机冲击下各国宏观经济政策所导致的新的世界经济波动,结合中国当前通货膨胀两难局面,运用古典模型中的二分法解构中国通货膨胀,得出名义变量引致了通胀的结论,并将古典增长模型与利率平滑规则有机结合,推断出现阶段通胀背景下仍应坚持适度从紧的货币政策规则,引导公众心理形成稳定的期望收入预期,才能真正意义上在稳定通胀的同时,形成社会理性消费预期,从而使扩大内需成为可能,这才是解决现阶段增长困境所在。     

货币错配与通货膨胀目标制的不可行性：针对我国现实

现阶段我国正面临人民币汇率稳定与物价稳定的"两难冲突",国内外一些学者主张我国应该采用通货膨胀目标制。从货币错配的角度探讨通货膨胀目标制在我国的可行性表明,由于存在较严重的货币错配及特殊的国情,现阶段我国尚不具备实行通货膨胀目标制的条件,短期内,通货膨胀目标制在我国并不具有可行性,货币政策适合以货币供应数量和价格作为混合使用的政策调控目标。     

我国通胀持久性的区间转换分析及其政策启示

抗通胀是当前一个阶段我国经济面临的重要难题。本文通过非线性小波变换阀值去噪和双区间Markov转移模型的分析表明,无论高通胀区还是低通胀区,我国通货膨胀的持久性均在0.9以上,通胀率偏离预期后受到随机冲击所需的回复时间较长,通货膨胀的治理成本较高。为有效降低我国通胀的高持久性,提高央行货币政策制定的透明度和政策施行的信用度是首要解决的问题。     

The role of import prices in flattening the Phillips curve: Evidence from Korea

Are global inflation synchronization and the flattening of the Phillips curve across the globe related? The globalization hypothesis has been proposed to explain the relationship but questions remain on its quantitative role. Focusing on South Korea, one of Asia-Pacific supply chain hubs, this paper investigates the extent to which import prices affect domestic price inflation over the period between 2002 and 2020. Specifically, we conduct the regression decomposition method to identify major sources of variation in domestic inflation, followed by a subsequent set of comparative analyses across various inflation forecasting models. Our findings confirm a tight link from import prices to domestic prices, with a 10pp increase in IPI inflation passed onto PPI and CPI inflation by 3.9pp and 3.4pp over time, respectively. The main finding of this study is consistent with the recent global inflation surge that has been driven largely by imported food and energy price channels.     

Child mortality under Chinese reforms

This paper looks at the impact of China's economic reforms on its health performance. Based on an appropriate health outcomes indicator, the logit of infant survival, it appears that while still out-performing most countries, China's relative advance decreased during the reform period. Consistent with the fact that the health system had to rely increasingly on private expenditures, we find an increasing impact of income on infant survival. We also show that relative prices at the provincial level matter for infant survival: for a given increase in income per capita, a real currency depreciation lowers survival. Focusing on poverty reduction still seems to be a major means to significantly improve infant survival in China.     

煤炭价格下降对我国宏观经济的影响

煤炭在我国能源结构中居于主体地位,由于产能过剩和进口煤大量冲击,煤炭价格下降幅度较大。而煤炭价格已经接近完全市场化,电力价格仍然受政府管制,中央财经领导小组已经定调推动能源体制革命,电价市场化将是我国全面深化改革的重要内容,因此研究电价市场化和受政府管控下煤炭价格下降对宏观经济的影响具有重要的意义。论文利用CGE模型研究了两种情境下我国煤炭价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响,对不同的煤炭价格冲击进行情景模拟并进行了分析,结论表明两种情境下煤炭价格波动对宏观经济变量和21个产业影响是不同的,并据此提供一些政策建议。     

A nonlinear ARDL model of inflation dynamics in the Philippine economy

This study investigated whether global oil price changes, exchange rate, interest rate, and economic output exert symmetric or asymmetric pass-through effects on inflation in the Philippines. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model was fitted to the observable data using quarterly observations from 1998 to 2019. Knowledge of these relationships is important in monetary policy setting in achieving targeted inflation; the Philippines adopted inflation targeting in 2002. The finding shows that world oil price shocks are still prominent and the most important determinants of inflation variations in the country. There is prima facie evidence on the short-run asymmetry of oil price changes to inflation. Exchange rate pass-through to inflation was very minimal in the short-run, and there is no long-run effect. Evidence that interest rate and demand shocks have a long-run asymmetric effect on inflation was found. These findings imply that monetary policy setting should account for the asymmetric effects of inflation determinants. Study results provide a deeper understanding of how positive and negative changes of inflation determinants affect actual inflation, which aids policymakers in achieving targeted inflation.     

Emerging markets, evolving institutions, and the new opportunities for growth in China's rural economy

In this essay, our goal is to assess the state of China's rural economy and examine whether rural China is capable of participating in the sequence of economic events that will lead to modernization. We examine how agricultural productivity has changed, the nature of the shift of labor moving from rural to urban areas, how commodity markets have evolved, and how the rural industrial sector is adjusting the recent reforms. According to our own work and that of others, we show how the rural economy is beginning to be fundamentally transformed and is contributing to China's modernization.     

Why China Should Invest Its Foreign Exchange Reserves in the Major US Banks

The subprime mortgage crisis and the resultant inflationary monetary policy in the USA have left the Chinese economy subject to four risks in particular. First, China＇s exports to the USA might continue to decline. Second in the medium term, the higher US inflation rate will lead to a weak dollar, which will negatively affect China＇s exports. Third in the long term, when the US Federal Reserve decreases money supply to control inflation, the US economy might enter another recession, hurting China ＂s exports further. Fourth, China＇s foreign exchange reserve assets might suffer heavy losses when the US inflation rate rises. Conventional foreign exchange investment strategies are insufficient for dealing with these four risks. Investment by China in the major US banks is suggested in the present paper. This strategy would mitigate if not eliminate all four risks. China could gain considerable financial returns on investments with only moderate risk.     

中国通货膨胀的内在周期波动与外在水平波动的驱动机制研究

无论是从有关中国宏观经济周期性文献,或者还是从有关中国通货膨胀文献来看,它们均普遍忽略了中国通货膨胀的内在周期与外在水平波动的分析。为此,文章首先从内部时域和频域视角,通过"谷-谷"划分法和谱分析方法对1990年到2016年的CPI进行了周期划分和波动成分分解;随后从外部视角通过对驱动通货膨胀水平波动的系统因素,进行因子提取,采用FAVAR方法研究了价格变动的影响机制。主要发现：（1）中国以CPI为度量标准的通货膨胀在1990年1月到2016年12月完整经历了6轮周期。在有些轮次周期中,上升跨越度和下降跨越度有明显的不对称性。（2）内在成分中,食品项的主周期长度和次周期长度均与CPI指数保持高度一致,食品对CPI总指数的影响相对较大,长期保持同向变动。（3）外在机制中,外部冲击因素因子、通货膨胀自身惯性和预期对中国通货膨胀变动具有较为重要的驱动贡献。中国通货膨胀不仅是货币现象,而且也是外部冲击、自身惯性与预期波动的重要驱动结果。