The politics of anticipation: On knowing and governing environmental futures

In this article we describe how the historical emergence and rise of future studies, since the founding issue of Futures in 1968, has been intricately connected to the emergence and development of environmental anticipation as discourse and practice. We trace a dialectical and inter-twined relationship between technologies of environmental anticipation and forecasting, and technologies of anti-environmentalist anticipation and counter-intervention, one which we argue shapes not only the contemporary politics of anticipation, but in a very material sense, the future conditions of biological and social life on Earth. In so doing we want to address the possible contributions that the field of futures studies can make to reimagining collective agency and ways of being on Earth, whilst reflecting critically upon its genealogical relations to the political reason and strategic horizons of powerful fossil fuel interests, from the crisis of the 1970s to the present. The article also offers a more in-depth contextualization to the other articles in this special issue of Futures on “The Politics of Environmental Anticipation”. The aim is to bring to the fore the role that social scientists play in environmental anticipation − i.e. drawing attention to the fact that the future could always have been otherwise.     

The future of small-scale mining: environmental and socioeconomic perspectives

Although small-scale mining provides innumerable benefits to the rural inhabitants and governments of the developing world, its operations have been responsible for a wide range of environmental and socioeconomic complications. This article examines the impacts of small-scale mining, and provides a perspective on the future of the industry. It first describes small-scale mining activity, emphasizing key definitional and locational characteristics. Next, it examines the socioeconomic impacts of the industry, along with its environmental problems. The article concludes by discussing the future of small-scale mining in developing countries.     

Bridging anticipation skills and intercultural competences as a means to reinforce the capacity of global citizens for learning to learn together

The view of the authors is that, in response to challenges created in many countries by the coexistence of communities of different origins and cultures, living together in peace requires a capacity to learn together and to navigate a plurality of cultures but also a plurality of futures.To explore this idea, a research has been conducted to identify future-oriented methodologies that can sustain activities in such fields as the culture of peace and global citizenship education. Such methodologies as Causal Layered Analysis, the Sarkar game, Transformative Scenario Planning and the framework of Futures Literacy are examined in relation to their added value for intercultural competences. The paper finishes on the presentation and analysis of a case study on a foresight participative workshop held with young people in Africa.The four methodologies and the case study presented in this paper provide, in our view, a strong impetus to further explore spaces where intercultural competences and the discipline of anticipation can be hybridized. Such hybridity seems to correspond to what is required of citizens in a globalizing world where solutions must not only be based on long term perspectives but also be shared across national, cultural, ethnic or religious boundaries.     

The role of future economic conditions in the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from the US and UK

Our study investigates the explanatory power of future economic conditions on individual stock returns in the US and UK equity markets. We analyse a new trading strategy that is based on rational forecasts of future real activity. In addition, we specifically examine the performance of this trading strategy applied to two different classifications of stocks – procyclical stocks and countercyclical stocks. Our findings indicate a strong persistence in the relationship between returns on pro-cyclical stocks and the business cycle. However, such persistence is not present when moving to counter-cyclical stocks in the US and the UK. From this we suggest that US and UK equity investors who predict future real activity accurately can improve their investment profitability by longing pro-cyclical stocks when they expect future economic conditions to be above the long-run trend and shorting those stocks when future activity is anticipated to be below the steady state.     

On the anticipation of IPO underpricing: Evidence from equity carve-outs

We investigate IPO market efficiency using a sample of equity carve-outs offered during the period of 1985–2005. Unlike IPOs examined in previous studies where trading during the pre-IPO book-building period does not exist and trading on the IPO date is rationed, in equity carve-outs, investors can trade in the non-rationed market for shares of the parent, which holds a significant fraction of the subsidiary. We find that the subsidiary's initial day return is significantly related to its parent's return over the book-building period, but unrelated to its parent's contemporaneous return. Neither the pre-IPO price revision of the subsidiary nor the return to the parent on the initial trading day can be predicted. While the portion of the subsidiary's initial return unpredictable from information available during the book-building period is significantly related to its parent's contemporaneous return, the predictable component of the initial return is not. We interpret these results as evidence consistent with market efficiency.     

Further evidence of the relationship between accruals and future cash flows

Focusing only on operating accruals in accrual‐based studies results in a loss of information and noisy measures of both accrual and cash flow components of earnings. Thus, we examine the relative importance of working capital accruals, non‐current operating accruals, and financing accruals with regard to future cash flows from operations (CFO). Using Australian data, we provide evidence that both working capital and non‐current operating accruals are important for explaining future CFO but that the contribution of financing accruals is not significant. Moreover, the asset component of accruals plays a more important role in explaining future CFO than the liability component.     

The evolution and future of the BRICS: Unbundling politics from economics

Under the current global forces, economics muddled with politics is exerting undue pressures on the BRICS countries and is challenging the sustainability of their accord. Unanticipated problems are increasingly inhibiting economic and social prosperity. This paper analyzes the current difficulties that the BRICS are facing, scrutinizes their unique individual economic and political environments, and ventures to anticipate their prospects. Our consensus is that the future prosperity of these countries depends not only on their individual political and economic environments, but also on the major global powers. Furthermore, the current inevitable interconnectivity of politics and economics provides foresight into their future role on the world stage.     

Colour the future green?: The uncertain significance of global green politics

A major value shift in industrialized countries in the same direction as the core values of the Greens movements suggests that there is a cultural phenomenon involving far more people than the overt political manifestation of it. This article links such a value shift with something more fundamental, namely a movement away from confident scientific positivism towards some kind of ill-defined transcendentalism. Related cultural and social movements in the industrialized countries and global attitudes in the developing world are examined. It appears that even if the Greens movements weaken or disappear in their present form, they are political manifestations of a broader cultural thrust that seems unlikely to diminish.     

In search of future alternatives for family business: Family law contributions through Civil and Common Law comparison

One of the major issues in family business field is the understanding of what makes family businesses different. Despite an increasing development of research during the last 30 years, little attention has been paid to the legal component of the family. The aim of this article is to explore the way legal attributes of the family, comparing Civil Law and Common Law, foresight the heterogeneity and the future of family business. The identification of a Civil Law specificity, No Exit Option, and the Common Law specificity, Exit Option, supports the formulation of different alternatives for family business futures.     

The role of biosolar technologies in future energy supply making scenarios for the Netherlands: Energy port and energy farm

This paper assesses the possible roles of biosolar energy systems in the Netherlands in the coming years. The appraisal is made in the light of EU Directives on renewable energy and reduction of CO₂ emissions, and the new Dutch Energy Agreement for Sustainable Growth. The assessment is made within the Dutch BioSolar Cells (BSCs) research programme on photosynthesis and its application in fuel production. Part of the programme is committed to societal debate by considering different options and uses of biosolar technology. To provide building blocks for these discussions, we conducted a comprehensive desk study supplemented with key expert interviews, and we identified and articulated the main drivers for the Dutch transition towards more sustainable energy supply. Next, these drivers were used to develop two futures: energy port and energy farm, representing institutional settings in which BSC technology could be implemented. Both represent fundamentally different types of innovation and are useful in assessing the effect of policies on future energy systems. Both scenarios were used in workshops with BSC researchers and policymakers. Their possible implications for the BSC programme itself, as well as the broader policy significance of the use of biosolar technologies in the Netherlands, are indicated.     

The siren call of probability: Dangers associated with using probability for consideration of the future

Many tools for thinking about the future employ probability. For example, Delphi studies often ask expert participants to assign probabilities to particular future outcomes. Similarly, while some scenario planners reject probability, others insist that assigning probabilities to scenarios is required to make them meaningful. Formal modelling and forecasting methods often also employ probability in one way or another. The paper questions this widespread use of probability as a device for considering the future, firstly showing that objective probability, based on empirically-observed frequencies, has some well-known drawbacks when used for this purpose. However, what is less-widely acknowledged is that this is also true of the subjective probability used in, for example, Delphi. Subjective probability is less distinct from objective probability than proponents of its use might imply, meaning it therefore suffers from similar problems. The paper draws on the foundations of probability theory as set out by Kolmogorov, as-well-as the work of Keynes, Shackle, Aumann, Tversky and Kahneman, and others, to reassert the essential distinction between risk and uncertainty, and to warn about the dangers of inappropriate use of probability for considering the future. The paper sets out some criteria for appropriate use.     

On the asymmetric relationship between stock market development,energy efficiency and environmental quality: A nonlinear analysis

It has been widely documented in the literature that financial development drives up the impact of CO₂ emissions through increases in real economic activities and the consumption of polluting fossil fuel energy. However, when dealing with stock market development, such upward effects on economic growth, energy efficiency, and carbon emissions seems to give away to a positive impact especially in emerging markets. This paper contributes to this debate by exploring both the symmetric and asymmetric responses of CO₂ emission to changes in stock market development indicators. Using both the panel linear and nonlinear ARDL, our results demonstrate the asymmetric effects of stock market development indicator son carbon emissions in the context of emerging markets. In particular, the long-run elasticities results suggest that positive and negative shocks on stock market indicator decreases environmental quality by increasing carbon emissions. Based on these empirical findings, this study offers some crucial policy implications. Especially, policy makers should implement strong environmental policies in emerging markets economies to reduce carbon emissions of industrial companies without significantly affecting the development of financial markets.     

长期资金市场对能源强度的影响研究——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

依据中国30个省(市)自治区1998~2013年面板数据,考量长期资金市场对能源强度的影响。结果表明,长期资金市场发展对东部地区能源强度下降影响较大,产业结构升级、人均 GDP 提高均有利于各地区能源强度下降,技术进步、对外贸易度对各地区能源强度的影响呈现出分化态势。鉴此,应充分发挥长期资金市场优势、促进产业结构升级、重视研发投入产出技术成果转化等,多渠道降低能源强度。     

Designing a foresight exercise for the future of rural communities in Romania

The paper aims to offer a good guideline for anyone who intends to do a futures or a foresight exercise for rural communities. The case presented is the one of the future of rural communities in Romania. The article begins with a brief presentation of the prevailing rural situation in Romania followed by a dialogue regarding suggestions for the possible objectives of a foresight exercise and the methods used (e.g. visioning, alternative futures, scenarios).     

Thinking about the future of technology: Rates of improvement and economic feasibility

This paper uses data on rates of improvement to discuss when new technologies or systems composed from them might become economically feasible. Technologies must provide some level of performance and price for specific applications before they will begin to diffuse and technologies that experience rapid rates of improvement are more likely to become economically feasible for a growing number of applications than are other technologies. Drawing from a large data base on rates of improvement, this paper describes a set of plausible futures that are very different from ones that are presented in public forums.     

The changing technological environment and the future of behavioural research in accounting

In an era where the pace of change continues to escalate, behavioural research provides an ongoing avenue for explaining the likely effects of emergent changes on decision‐making by providers, users and assurers of accounting information, and for providing ex ante enlightenment for policy‐makers. The purpose of this discussion is to identify contemporary changes affecting the accounting environment, discuss the potential impact to individual and organisational decision‐making, and explore how behavioural research can be utilised to examine these changes. Specifically, this discussion focuses on the impact that technological changes have had on financial reporting, external auditing and managerial accounting, with an eye towards the potential for these changes to radically alter the future of accounting and auditing research.     

TPP谈判进程中的不确定因素

为了提升美国在亚太地区的主导权进而使美国获得政治、经济等领域的战略利益,美国积极推动＂跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定＂（TPP）的发展和扩大。该协定将对亚太区域经济一体化进程以及中国未来的经贸活动甚至政经形势都产生不可忽视的影响。目前,TPP谈判取得了一定进展。然而,日本、东盟各国的利弊权衡和担忧,尤其是中国所持的态度和立场,都成为影响TPP未来发展的不确定因素。     

Cargo cult science and the death of politics: A critical review of social and environmental accounting research

We present here an extensive literature review delineating the main theoretical parameters that have shaped the discursive field of Social Accounting/Social and Environmental Reporting (SER). In doing so, we reflect upon the way in which theory is used in SER focusing particularly on its political character. We show that SER theories have been developed in isolation from, and in contradistinction to, other organisational literatures and the social sciences more generally. This self-referentiality has precluded consideration of whether accountability is a realistic or desirable demand to make of corporations. In an age where political antagonism has been seriously eroded in the Western World, we argue that if SER is to avoid complicity in this, then SER research must break free from its self-imposed theoretical limitations and embrace a goal beyond accountability.     

The future of Muslim politics : Critique of the ‘fundamentalist’ theory of the Islamic state

This article considers the future of Muslim political thought in the context of growing de-Islamization and the dominance of Western institutions. The ‘fundamentalist’ theory of the Islamic state—total mobilization of Muslim societies under a universal state—is criticized as religiously an immanentist heresy, and politically a totalitarian nightmare. Proposed here is a way out of the moral and intellectual crisis in Islamic political thought through the principle of Shura—meaning that Muslims must evolve their own form of representative government.     

On the role of market insurance in a dynamic model

Durables like cars or houses are a substantial component in the balance sheets of households. These durables are exposed to risk and can be insured in the market. We build a dynamic model in which agents have three possibilities to cope with the risk exposure of the durable stock: (i) purchase of market insurance, (ii) buffer-stock saving of the riskless asset or (iii) adjustment of the durable stock. We calibrate our model to the US economy and find a small role for market insurance.