The future imagined: Exploring fiction as a means of reflecting on today’s Grand Societal Challenges and tomorrow’s options

European science policy (so-called Horizon 2020) is guided by Grand Societal Challenges (GSCs) with the explicit aim of shaping the future. In this paper we propose an innovative approach to the analysis and critique of Europe’s GSCs. The aim is to explore how speculative and creative fiction offer ways of embodying, telling, imagining, and symbolising ‘futures’, that can provide alternative frames and understandings to enrich the grand challenges of the 21st century, and the related rationale and agendas for ERA and H2020. We identify six ways in which filmic and literary representations can be considered creative foresight methods (i.e. through: creative input, detail, warning, reflection, critique, involvement) and can provide alternative perspectives on these central challenges, and warning signals for the science policy they inform. The inquiry involved the selection of 64 novels and movies engaging with notions of the future, produced over the last 150 years. Content analysis based on a standardised matrix of major themes and sub-domains, allows to build a hierarchy of themes and to identify major patterns of long-lasting concerns about humanity’s future. The study highlights how fiction sees oppression, inequality and a range of ethical issues linked to human and nature’s dignity as central to, and inseparable from innovation, technology and science. It concludes identifying warning signals in four major domains, arguing that these signals are compelling, and ought to be heard, not least because elements of such future have already escaped the imaginary world to make part of today’s experience. It identifies areas poorly defined or absent from Europe's science agenda, and argues for the need to increase research into human, social, political and cultural processes involved in techno-science endeavours.     

Cities of the imagination: Science fiction, urban space, and community engagement in urban planning

Stories, dreams, histories and myths, Michel de Certeau argues, connect people to particular places and makes place concrete and inhabitable. These narratives generate an imaginary, poetic geography that haunts the abstract city of street maps and development plans, and makes it socially meaningful. This paper is concerned with one particular kind of story-telling - science fiction - and its relationship with the city, urban planning, and questions of community engagement. The paper argues that the ‘cities of the imagination’ generated by science fiction and other forms of narrative provide a powerful means of understanding, communicating and enriching the connections to place in urban communities. Moreover, science fiction is often characterised by its ability to explore the future of cities. This gives the genre a fascinating and potentially useful resonance with urban planning as a discourse and set of practices; and, in particular, strategies for engaging communities in the design process and, thus, designing for future social sustainability. These ideas will be tested through a reading of near-future urban spatiality in the cyberpunk stories of William Gibson. The theorisation of the relationship between urban space and narrative in the work of de Certeau and other theorists will be used to help frame this discussion.     

Always coming home: Towards an archaeology of the future

This paper reports on a research project which facilitated a group of socially committed educators to clarify the nature of their desirable futures and to identify their sources of hope. This work is set within the normative tradition of futures studies and an account is given of how the research process was arrived at and the way in which people responded to this. A participatory and experiential focus group format enabled participants to explore these issues in a fruitful and synergetic way. Key elements of their preferable futures and primary sources of hope are identified and then compared with previous research findings. Finally these concerns are located within wider contemporary debates about revisionary postmodernism, sustainable futures and the utopian tradition.     

Action oriented futures studies in Hungary

The significant social changes and unstable social-economic processes we are undergoing require more participation and more future oriented grassroots activity both in designing the possible future alternatives and in the actions for the realization of them. Action oriented futures studies and participatory futures studies are in close connection, because orientation towards actions and participation of non-professionals can be strengthened by their mutual interdependence in futures work. This study gives—as examples—summaries of four Hungarian case studies using participatory futures methods: one case from the field of vocational training, two cases concerning regional development, and one about national social-economic development. Our experience shows that such selected groups have evaluated the present issues in their environments as well as the closer and broader regional issues in authentic ways. The future alternatives that were outlined regarding the future of vocational training, acceptable future alternatives of domestic social-economic development, and future living conditions of a smaller settlement and in a larger town, reflected obligation, responsibility and personal interest. That non-professionals lack sufficient future orientation, and do not see possibilities to take serious actions for the future is a read problem. Fortunately, it seems that the future and action oriented attitude of the individuals might be further developed by the use of partnership education.     

Futures dreaming outside and on the margins of the western world

In this article, we challenge the hegemony of western science fiction, arguing that western science fiction is particular even as it claims universality. Its view remains based on ideas of the future as forward time. In contrast, in non-western science fiction the future is seen outside linear terms: as cyclical or spiral, or in terms of ancestors. In addition, western science fiction has focused on the good society as created by technological progress, while non-western science fiction and futures thinking has focused on the fantastic, on the spiritual, on the realization of eupsychia—the perfect self.However, most theorists assert that the non-west has no science fiction, ignoring Asian and Chinese science fiction history, and western science fiction continues to ‘other’ the non-west as well as those on the margins of the west (African–American woman, for example).Nonetheless, while most western science fiction remains trapped in binary opposites—alien/non-alien; masculine/feminine; insider/outsider—writers from the west’s margins are creating texts that contradict tradition and modernity, seeking new ways to transcend difference. Given that the imagination of the future creates the reality of tomorrow, creating new science fictions is not just an issue of textual critique but of opening up possibilities for all our futures.

Science fiction has always been nearly all white, just as until recently, it’s been nearly all male

(Butler as quoted in [1]).

Science fiction has long treated people who might or might not exist—extra-terrestrials. Unfortunately, however, many of the same science fiction writers who started us thinking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial life did nothing to make us think about here-at home variation—women, blacks, Indians, Asians, Hispanics, etc [1].

Is all science fiction western? Is there non-western science fiction? If so, what is its nature? Does it follow the form and content of western science fiction, or is it rendered different by its own local civilizational historical processes and considerations? Has western science fiction moulded the development of the science fiction of the ‘other’, including feminist science fiction, in such a way that anything coming from outside the west is a mere imitation of the real thing? Perhaps non-western science fiction is a contradiction in terms. Or is there authentic non-western fiction which offers alternative visions of the future, of the ‘other’?     

Enhancing the role of participatory scenario planning processes: Lessons from Reality Check exercises

This paper critically assesses a series of scenario planning exercises in the Washington Metropolitan region and the State of Maryland within a broad and evolving framework of participatory planning. Reality Check, as the exercises were called, were a daylong set of activities using tools that encouraged stakeholder participation to develop scenarios focused on long-term regional sustainability. The paper draws upon planning theory, participant reactions, media reports, post-exercise outcomes and author's experiences of shaping the process. It illustrates how the model was adapted to multiple scales and contexts, and variations in desired technical complexity. The paper concludes that such processes have an inherent value in capturing the issues of the future and in creating awareness and knowledge. It argues that certain considerations such as early strategic engagement of stakeholders, flexibility of technical tools and diversity among organizers, all played a role in enhancing the dialogue. Furthermore, it suggests that when timed with favorable external conditions and designed within suitable institutional frameworks, they have the potential to provide a foundation from which tangible regional benefits can be realized.     

“Foresight process impacts: Beyond any official targets,foresight is bound to serve democracy”

Foresight is usually criticised for having a limited direct impact on policy-making. Although contexts play a significant role, this may be true to a certain extent. It is also true, however, that the value of foresight has been under-explored. The purpose of the paper is to show the value of foresight in contributing to the development of more participatory societies irrespective of the specific ‘official’ objectives it is designed to serve. The methodology included the creation of a specific impact assessment framework and the assessment of certain foresight exercises (FNR Foresight and eFORESEE Malta) in terms of contribution to more participatory societies through case studies. The assessment showed that although contributing to more participatory societies was not among the main aims of the particular exercises, they managed to achieve certain impacts facilitating increased public participation or directly improving democratic processes in policy-making. Foresight is ‘by default’ devised to promote democratic processes through inclusiveness, openness, transparency, public engagement, and multi-stakeholder approaches.     

The reflective futures practitioner: Balancing salience,credibility and legitimacy in generating foresight knowledge with stakeholders

This paper explores how foresight researchers involved in environmental, nature and planning issues attempt to balance salience, credibility and legitimacy while generating knowledge in interaction with policy-makers and other social actors. Engaging stakeholders in foresight processes can increase the robustness of foresight knowledge, broaden the spectrum of issues addressed, and create ‘ownership’ of the process. While in foresight practices stakeholder participation becomes more and more popular to resort to as enabling factor for generating salient, legitimate and credible foresight knowledge, participation can also compromise these qualities. We analysed two foresight projects conducted at the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, one that developed future visions for Dutch nature policy and another that focused on future pathways for Dutch urban sustainable development policy. We illustrate that the dynamics of the research setting – changes in the socio-political context and the internal dynamics of the participatory efforts – complicated the balancing process. We conclude that one of the main challenges for futures practitioners is, therefore, to work within the dynamics of the research setting, and to position themselves strategically in this setting; by acting as ‘reflective futures practitioners’.     

Crowdsourcing urban sustainability. Data,people and technologies in participatory governance

The aim of this paper is to prefigure the future of urban sustainability governance by implementing crowdsourcing-based solutions for governance processes.We explore the convergence between recent research in urban sustainability governance and crowdsourcing. This is done by reviewing the literature in order to acquire important evidence to support the inductive process of theory building, and to highlight the upcoming trends in participatory research and policy-making that exploit ICT and Web 2.0 social software.Our analysis indicates that a transformative relationship between data and people creates new forms of distant search for solutions and decision making. We argue that interest in crowdsourcing has expanded from computing researches to social and environmental applications. This new practical dimension unlocks the futures of integration of crowdsourcing into best practices in the governance of sustainability in an urban context.Building on evidence that implementing crowdsourcing into the forthcoming governance of urban sustainability is increasingly recognised as a common priority, the paper suggests policy makers to devote more resources to ensure openness, transparency, interoperability and adaptability of crowdsourcing platforms.     

Quality evaluation framework (QEF): Modeling and evaluating quality of business processes

Business process modeling is an important part of information systems design as well as of any business engineering or reengineering activity. Business process modeling languages provide standard ways of presentation and communication between different stakeholders. A business process model is the externalization of the conceptualization of some parts of the object world that deal with those aspects that pertain to the way business transactions are carried out and supported by an information system. This paper deals with an essential issue in this context, namely the assessment of the quality of business processes through their models. This objective raises two major issues, (a) the identification of the quality factors relevant to business processes, and (b) the definition of the metrics that provide a means for objectively measuring quality of business processes. These two issues are addressed in this paper through a quality evaluation framework, known as QEF that enables business process modelers to explicitly incorporate a wide variety of requirements corresponding to quality factors. Quality factors of business processes are defined in this paper and categorized into different quality dimensions. Application of the quality framework as well as proposed quality dimensions, factors and metrics are discussed through an illustrative example.     

Towards Analytic‐deliberative Forms of Risk Governance in the UK? Reflecting on Learning in Radioactive Waste

While participatory forms of risk assessment and management have been the focus of much conceptualisation, experimentation, and evaluation, relatively less effort has gone into understanding how so called ‘analytic‐deliberative’ processes are developing across policy‐for‐real decision contexts. This paper develops a novel typology of citizen‐science interaction as a basis for analysing the nature and extent of recent participatory risk assessment practice in the UK. It draws on the reflections of professional actors operating across the UK environmental risk domain, focusing down on practice in the area of radioactive waste between 1998 and 2003. Compared with past science‐centred approaches, analysis shows an ‘opening up’ of risk decision processes to extended actors, knowledges, and values, with particular importance placed on public involvement in front‐end framing. This is being constrained by a failure to integrate engagement throughout decision processes, the exclusion of publics from assessing/evaluating environmental risks, and the upholding of a strict separation between citizens/science. These patterns of analytic‐deliberative practice — determined by contextual influences, barriers and challenges operating across UK environmental risk issue‐areas — highlight the need for further methodological development and systematic evaluation of relations between processes and outcomes.     

Stakeholder participation in environmental knowledge production

Participatory approaches in environmental knowledge production are commonly propagated for their potential to enhance legitimacy and quality of decision-making processes, especially under conditions of uncertainty. This paper describes the development of the Stakeholder Participation Guidance for the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency as an attempt to put the rather theoretical ambitions of the participation literature into practice. The study includes an analysis of theories of ‘new production of knowledge’ and of the agency's position as an intermediary organization between science and policy, together with its participatory activities, to date. The Guidance is meant to suit different contexts, products and modes of assessments by the agency. Therefore, it cannot be a like a recipe book, but is intended to support and guide project leaders in their choices around stakeholder participation. The paper emphasizes the context dependency of participatory knowledge production and stresses the importance of reflection and transparency regarding the role of scientific advisors in the science-policy process.     

Participation in environmental spatial planning: Structuring-scenario to manage knowledge in action

Participatory planning experiences highlight the crucial role of cognitions produced, shared and used throughout participatory processes. The construction of spatial plans is more and more intended as a socio/political activity producing highly cognitive visions able to guide collective action and make a common good of it.In accordance with the view that a relevant portion of such knowledge is revealed only through action, the paper proposes the idea of structuring-scenarios as open entities able to structure action and, consequently, to bridge participatory knowledge to the impetuous practice of action.The paper first presents and discusses the role of structuring-scenarios in the work carried out while developing an environmental plan for the delta area of the Po River in Italy. Then it reflects on the main features of content and structure of such scenarios. Finally, the paper analyses the ‘structuring properties’ of these scenarios and their role in structuring action.     

Accounting and gender across times and places: An excursion into fiction

The focus of this paper is on changing perceptions of accounting in different times and in different cultural contexts, with the special emphasis on the issues of gender. The material used is a combination of fiction and research results, and the scope of analysis extends from the end of the 18th century in Central Europe through the birth of capitalism in Poland to the contemporary global economy, as portrayed in the novels of Douglas Adams.     

《尤利西斯》诗学精神的分层化管窥

乔伊斯不仅是一位敢于创新的小说革命家，还是一位善于构建文论体系的小说理论家，《尤利西斯》的诗学精神研究是一种真正靠近“文本真实”中心的多元化研究，它的理论形态（小说艺术）、批评形态（诗学学理）、实践形态（文学创作）是有机统一、庞杂并蓄的。换言之，对《尤利西斯》小说诗学之谜的无尽探幽和集中诘疑为真正的小说家提供了广博深厚的文学理论背景和高尚恒久的自由艺术精神，用非人格化的诗性语言以超然于世的高姿态对蕴意无穷的人类无意识领域进行了缜密而坦直的索解。     

Selection of participatory formats as success factor for effective risk communication and decision-making processes. Conclusions from a systematic empirical format comparison

The article contributes arguments to the discussion about the effectiveness of dialogue and participation within the field of risk communication and decision-making, considering the special issue of societal resilience. The contribution summarises selected empirical findings of a systematic comparison of participatory formats based on a multi method and a multi concept approach as well as a comprehensive data base. The analyses detected systematic differences between the formats according to their internal impact on the persons involved and their external impact. These differences can be explained by procedural features of the formats. Appropriate format selection turned out to be an important success factor for developing effective participatory projects. The article sketches the opportunities for synthesising research findings to assess and compare formats. In addition, the potentials of how integrative research can structure and refine the available knowledge are illustrated, so that coordinators and organizers in the field are supported, for instance in selecting formats appropriately. Systematic knowledge of success factors does not only facilitate the practical field work. A couple of arguments from interdisciplinary literature indicate that effective interactive communication and decision-making can be seen as a functional and relevant resource in democratic systems to strengthen the society to react effectively against threats, and to cope with development issues. Effective dialogue and participation, therefore, can be understood as resources for strengthening the social resilience of modern democratic societies.     

Dark trends: Psychology,science fiction,and the ominous consensus

Many science fiction authors predict that the world will continue moving towards an environment characterised by a combination of high population density and advanced technology. Psychologists and writers of fiction both appear to be in general agreement that such an environment will result in an information overload, intolerable time pressures, overwork for a minority with a lack of meaningful work for the majority, and the loss of privacy and autonomy. Futurists should note the agreement between artistic vision and scientific research—that human civilisation appears to be moving towards conditions that are unpleasant and deleterious.     

Lasting impacts and perceived inequities: community reappraisal of the siting of a regional biosolids processing facility in rural Ontario

This paper presents a comparative study of the shift in community perceptions pre- and post-siting of a biosolids processing facility – the Organic Material Recovery Centre – in the rural Township of Southgate, Ontario. The study responds to the need for comparative studies examining residents’ perceptions of contested noxious facilities during acrimonious siting processes and later during facility operations. Interviews were conducted before and after the techno-industrial facility was sited to compare community perceptions of the proposed and operational facility, and further examine residents’ experiences with residual impacts and reflections on the siting process. Results reveal that once the facility began operations and residents had the opportunity to understand its operational mandate and directions, many residents seem to accept the facility as less threatening to well-being, quality of life and core values. Nonetheless, sustained community concerns shifted to invisible impacts and long-term uncertainty. Findings highlight lingering intra-community conflict between those supporting and those who remained concerned about negative impacts. As a result of the hostile community conflict, the local politics seems to have morphed into a ‘one-issue’ political scene, whereby all issues are divided along the lines of municipal councillors opinions of the facility These findings make methodological contributions with pre- and post-siting comparative qualitative research and contribute theoretically to our understanding of residents’ reappraisal of contested noxious techno-industrial facilities, show sustained divisive social impacts within the community, and call for meaningful consultation and increased participatory siting processes that accounts for the diversity of values and expectations during facility siting.     

Digitization,digitalization, and digital transformation in accounting,electronic commerce,and supply chains

This paper provides some basic definitions associated with digital transformation in organizations and applies those definitions to accounting, electronic commerce, and supply chains. I also drill down on the dimensions associated with digital transformation, including digital everywhere, integration (across applications and with customers and partners), and the need to reengineer processes. I examine several examples of processes ranging from digitization to digital transformation. I also examine the role of people in digitally transformed organizations and some technologies that are important to continued evolution of digitally transformed organizations. Further, we explore a number of scenarios of digital transformation. Finally, these investigations result in the determination of a number of emerging research issues.