Unmasking scenario planning: The colonization of the future in the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program

In the Netherlands, the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program has been introduced by the Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations in 2014, in the context of the ongoing transformation of the Dutch welfare state; more specifically, the transformation of the social care sector. Scenario planning is a major preoccupation in this program and two major reports have been published in this connection. In this article, the authenticity of the scenario planning of the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program is questioned. It is found that the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program’s scenario planning is not a real scenario planning but, instead, a continuation of the neoliberal discourse by hegemonic stakeholders that seek to ‘close’ the future. It is concluded in this article that in the ‘Local Governments of the Future’ program the future is colonized and presented as an impersonal trend in which governmental agency for creatively negating and transcending the neoliberal discourse is irrelevant.     

A critical review of the application of environmental scenario exercises

Scenario exercises have become instrumental across multiple fields, from their original usage in business and military planning, to being ubiquitous in environmental planning and policy formation. This article critically reviews whether there are explicit and imminent divisions between how scenario exercises are used and discussed, with particular focus on the literature of qualitative scenarios concerning environmental challenges. The authors interrogate what scenario exercises are in actual practice, in the context of what they are used for and how they are designed, before then considering the criteria for determining ‘success’ for a scenario exercise. The particular focus of the literature analysed is in the emergence of the discipline of ‘environmental scenarios’, being scenarios concerned with 21st Century environmental challenges such as the influence of climate change on the notion of natural hazards.     

Complexities of Productivity Policies in the Finnish Public Sector: Knowing How to Do More with Less?

This paper examines public sector productivity policies as complexities between what is ‘known’ in policy principles and what is ‘done’ in everyday policy practice. Such complexities are explored in two productivity policy cases within Finnish local government: municipal amalgamations, and the low‐threshold concept of healthcare service. Utilising quantitative and qualitative data from Finnish local government the paper demonstrates the tensions between productivity policy principles, interpretations for productivity improvement (‘knowing’) and final outcomes for actually applying (‘doing’) productivity policy. The paper argues in favour of a new understanding for the research and practice of public policy and management.     

Book Reviews

References to ‘customers’ have become commonplace in the policy discourses within UK government and other public sector bodies. It is a working assumption of UK public sector management that the concept of the ‘customer’ can be applied to any public sector service agency or department; and this paper analyses how the UK government's revenue department, formerly titled the Inland Revenue (IR), re-characterised firstly taxpayers and latterly tax claimants as ‘customers’, rather than ‘users’, of IR services. This paper identifies some problems, dilemmas and ambiguities associated with this reconceptualisation in the context of an organisation that is predominantly a regulating department. Far from being merely a reclassification of the taxpayer as customer, the emerging discourse and associated practices of the IR were in part embedded in organisational change, including the merger with HM Customs and Excise to form the present-day HMRC. Thus this case analysis illustrates the limits of consumerism as a strategic tool of a government revenue department and raises wider questions for public management.     

New development: Parliamentary ‘watchdogs’ taking a higher profile on government programme performance and accountability?

The ‘Holy Grail’ of decades of public sector reform has been the public availability of readily-understandable, reliable and meaningful performance information about government activities and programmes. Maps have been drawn; processes have been developed; some actual progress has been made in a number of countries; but the end is not in sight. Put simply, particularly in Westminster government-type systems, it remains the case, at least in broad terms, that the government is responsible for policy; the public service for administration and service delivery; and the parliament for oversight and review. In reality, the situation has become more complicated with the growth of the ‘information economy’, internationalization, the greater involvement of the private sector in government activities generally and changing public views and expectations of government, not least in respect of trust and confidence in politicians and public institutions. At the very least, it is still a situation of ‘work-in-progress’ trying to catch up with the changing national and international environment.     

Goal-based socio-technical scenarios: Greening the mobility practices in the Stockholm City District of Bromma,Sweden

This paper presents a new five-part method for developing goal-based socio-technical scenarios. In the first part, Scenario ‘Seeds’ are identified or created. The Scenario Content part focuses on the question of what could be changed and by whom, a fundamental element being iterative identification of objects and actors of change. Scenario Outcome focuses on the question of how to assess the potential contribution of these changes, estimated through modelling the scenario in terms of energy usage systems. Scenario Process explores the question of how to develop and represent a scenario in terms of a process of governance. Scenario Content, Outcome and Process are then combined into a Final Scenario which is further assessed and evaluated using qualitative methods. The development of Scenario Content is tested and exemplified in this paper through a scenario study of green mobility in the district of Bromma in Stockholm, Sweden. Preliminary findings indicate that by supporting explicit inclusion of actors and ‘the social’ aspect, the what-who iteration in Scenario Content also helps identify opportunities and obstacles of a social character, thus contributing to creation of socio-technically more consistent and comprehensive scenarios.     

Time for interactive control systems in the public sector? The case of the Every Child Matters policy change in England

The present study employs the Simons, 1990, Simons, 1995 to analyse a shift in the use of control systems by government in the policy area of children and young people in England. At a time when the public is becoming increasingly disillusioned with the government's control over the work of the agencies in this policy area, high-profile cases of crises involving children (e.g. Department of Health, 1991, Laming, 2003) have raised doubts about the effectiveness of the conventional systems of control in place to keep these organisations accountable. Indeed, there is a growing body of evidence suggesting that the traditional type of control systems in government, meant to strengthen public accountability, consistently fail to promote high standards of care.This paper utilises a middle range thinking methodology (Broadbent and Laughlin, 1998) to describe and interpret changes in the policy area of children and young people in England highlighting implications for inter-organisational control. Through the lens of the Simons's levers of control (LOC) framework (1995), it advances the argument that the government is complementing their traditional diagnostic control systems with more interactive ones, principally in an attempt to manage more effectively the risk and uncertainty increasingly present in their environment. An in-depth study of a Local Safeguarding Children Board (LSCB) in ‘Brempton’, North West England, balanced with case evidence from policy documents, extends existing research in the area of control of inter-organisational relationships in the public sector.     

Hired Guns: Local Government Mergers in New South Wales and the KPMG Modelling Report

Across the developed world, including Australia, public policymaking now rests heavily on commissioned reports generated by for‐profit consultants, contrasting starkly with the earlier customary reliance on the civil service to provide informed policy advice to political decision makers. Dependence on commercial consultants is problematic, especially given the moral hazards involved in ‘hired guns’ providing support for policy ‘solutions’ desired by their political paymasters. This paper provides a vivid illustration of some of the dangers flowing from the use of consultants by examining the methodology employed by KPMG in its empirical analysis of the pecuniary consequences of proposed municipal mergers as part of the New South Wales’ (NSW) Government's Fit for the Future local government reform program. We show that the KPMG (2016) modelling methodology is awash with errors which render its conclusions on the financial viability of the NSW merger proposals fatally flawed.     

New development: Breaking out or hanging on? Internal audit in government

Public audit is in transition. On the one hand, professional organizations claim it is time ‘to break out’ and develop new roles for auditors that ‘add more value’. On the other hand, critics are concerned about public sector accountability deficits necessitating more control and urging auditors to hold on to their traditional role. This article discusses tensions and relevance between these positions and their implications for auditing in government. The article will help policy-makers in their strategic decision-making on the role and focus of internal audit in government.     

Strategy in the public sector

The public sector, including its non‐trading organisations, has to face complex demands and is subject to increasing competition in various forms. Nevertheless, the sector, particularly central government, finds strategy difficult. The findings of the Efficiency Unit's ‘Next Steps’ report provide an added impetus to the development of strategic thinking. The agencies proposed, as well as their sponsoring Departments, will require a strategic framework.     

Accruals and ‘accounting numbers management’ in UK executive agencies

Public sector reforms have implemented business techniques, including management by results, cost management and accrual accounting, to make public entities more efficient and accountable. As a consequence, ‘accounting numbers management’ has become a way for managers in the public sector to adapt accounting figures to their interests. This study focuses on ‘earnings management’ (manipulation of earnings) in government agencies. The authors provide evidence of earnings management in which agencies try to keep net operating costs to around zero. The authors' findings question the effectiveness of financial targets associated with accrual-based measures.     

Continuity,contingency and context: Bringing the historian's cognitive toolkit into university futures and public policy development

This paper explores the affinities between the cognitive approaches of historical study and those of strategic foresight, specifically, scenario planning, drawing out their capacity to problematise perceived certainties and challenge deterministic beliefs. It suggests that “thinking with history” has the potential to enhance strategic understanding and decision-making. Two high-level decision-making contexts – university executives and Government Departments – are then discussed with regards to the barriers to such strategic thinking. The paper draws on a wider research project exploring the role for historical thinking in public policy development.     

How do medical managers strategize? A strategy-as-practice perspective

ABSTRACT

Strategic planning (SP) is a widely-used practice within public sector organizations. However, SP does not only take place in strategy workshops and senior management levels. This paper explores how medical managers of English hospitals ‘do’ SP in their clinical directorates. The authors investigate the practices, the usage of strategy tools and the implications of medical managers’ strategizing. The paper argues that what makes financial sense to medical managers strategizing in the local circumstances of their directorates does not always equate to value for patients, the hospital or for the public sector as a whole.     

Barriers to the investment in the Concentrated Solar Power sector in Morocco: A foresight approach using the Cross Impact Analysis for a large number of events

The Scenario Analysis methods have often been used by policy makers as an instrument to manage uncertainty and to support the shaping of long-term economy policies. In this research, we apply Scenario Analysis in order to identify the barriers affecting the decision to invest in the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) sector in Morocco. Our results aim at facilitating the process of defining different paths in strategic political and policy actions. Using data from a survey on a panel of experts, the Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) and the Cross Impact Matrix System (SMIC) techniques are applied. The advantage of these techniques is that they allow including in the analysis the interlinkages between the events that will define the future scenarios. However, their limitation is that the number of events analyzed cannot be too high since the information collected from the experts increases exponentially according to the number of events introduced. We thus expand our analysis with a new methodological approach, combining the use of prospective and statistics techniques. This approach allows addressing the mentioned limitation and applying these techniques, initially restricted to 6 events in its common application, to a large number of events. The results show that uncertainty and informality would be key factors in promoting the arrival of companies in this sector. Additionally, regarding companies that already have a presence in Morocco’s renewable energy sector, an increase in activity would be achieved through improvements in the easing of financial and legal barriers.     

Talent management in government in times of economic instability: selected cases from the BRICS countries

This paper explores the policies that three BRICS countries used to tackle the growing problem of attracting and retaining talent in public sector institutions. The authors trace the changes in these countries’ strategies and approaches resulting from growing budgetary constraints; labour market shifts; new demographic trends; increasing demands for higher performance by public servants; and complex challenges faced by governments worldwide. Although talent management in public sector institutions was a government priority for the three countries—Brazil, China, and Russia—the results achieved have been modest. The authors draw lessons for other governments from their analysis.     

Keeping secrets? Or what government performance auditors might not need to know

This paper examines the claims made in a recent paper in Critical Perspectives on Accounting by Vaughan Radcliffe about the way in which public sector auditors report their findings. Drawing upon the work of Taussig, he argues that while public sector auditors may know the truth, as may others, they choose not always to tell the truth in their reports and instead to treat what may be publicly unpalatable as a public secret. They modify their findings to ensure that these will be more acceptable to governments and, thereby, enhance their opportunity to influence government. These claims are shown in this paper to overstate the public sector auditor's response to difficult issues. Rather than keeping secrets, the contents of the auditor's reports may instead reflect the constitutional and institutional limitations in which they must work. Most importantly in most jurisdictions they are not to comment on matters of policy which are the domain of the government.     

The effect of government industrial policies on corporate accounting conservatism

This study examines whether and how firms adjust their accounting conservatism in response to government support through industrial policies, which reduce firms’ dependence on external financing from the capital market. Based on China’s unique economic programme called ‘Five-Year Plan’ from 1991 to 2015, we observe a decline in accounting conservatism among firms covered by government industrial policies. The decline is more pronounced in covered firms, which face higher ex-ante financial constraints, and in the subsample of firms which receive higher government support. These findings are robust to alternative specifications of accounting conservatism and policy timing. Our evidence implies that government industrial policies can have unintended consequences for corporate financial reporting.     

Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning's role as a catalyst for urban policy integration

Policy integration has become a high-priority objective for urban planning and management. At the same time, the transportation and urban planning fields have increasingly employed scenario planning approaches, not only to develop long-term strategy, but also—potentially—to strengthen organizational networks and encourage collaborative action. Yet these latter supposed outcomes of scenario planning remain under-theorized and largely untested. In this study, we propose a methodology, based on established theories of collaboration, to test the ability of a particular type of scenario planning to encourage collaboration between participants. We demonstrate the approach using a scenario planning process undertaken within the transportation and urban planning community in Portugal. The pre-/post-test experimental design uses a survey designed to assess participants’ propensity for future collaboration by measuring change in individuals’ perceptions and understandings. The results suggest that the process likely modestly increased participants’ propensity to collaborate, primarily by strengthening inter-agency networks. The effects on participants’ views and understanding remain inconclusive. We suggest that specific challenges in applying this specific scenario planning approach to public sector contexts may limit the method's potential in achieving inter-organizational collaboration. Nonetheless, only more widespread efforts to formally test the scenario planning rhetoric will reveal the true impacts on organization change.     

Experiences of the development and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish environmental quality objectives

This paper presents and evaluates a method for encouraging long-term thinking and for considering a variety of scenarios in environmental policy processes. The Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental quality objectives (EQOs) that national authorities are obliged to observe. These objectives are reviewed annually and evaluated in depth every four years. Here we describe and explore a futures study project for introducing more long-term thinking into work on the EQOs, which we tested in the in-depth evaluation in 2008. We found it difficult to design a collective scenario for a case with a wide variety of objectives and individuals with different backgrounds. However, this difficulty makes it even more important to incorporate futures studies into the work of the relevant authorities. Scenario work is often subcontracted, leading to a constant lack of futures studies expertise and thinking within authorities. Despite the difficulties, we found that experts within the authorities did begin to recognise the opportunities provided by futures studies. The project revealed an interest and need for futures studies within the authorities in charge of Swedish environmental quality objectives and our findings show that the authorities need to build up their own skills in futures studies.     

Co-design,evaluation and the Northern Ireland Innovation Lab

Around the world there are more than 100 policy labs—multi-disciplinary government teams developing public services and policies using innovation methods to engage citizens and stakeholders. These policy labs use a range of innovation methods and approaches, including co-production, co-creation, co-design, behavioural insights, systems thinking, ethnography, data science, nudge theory and lean processes. Although the methods may vary, one element is consistent: policy labs actively, creatively and collaboratively engage the public and a wide range of stakeholders in jointly developing solutions. The Northern Ireland Public Sector Innovation Lab (iLab) is part of a growing UK and international community of policy labs using co-design to engage with users for value co-creation, aiming to improve public governance by creating a safe space to generate ideas, test prototypes and refine concepts with beneficiaries. Drawing on iLab’s experience, this paper explores three questions: What are the main determinants of effective co-design? What are the unintended consequences of co-design? And what lessons can be learned from iLab and shared with other policy labs?