Emptying the future: On the environmental politics of anticipation

Anticipation may be seen as structured by images and representations, an approach that has informed recent work in science and technology studies on the sociology of expectations. But anticipation, as a capacity or characteristic, is not solely manifested in the form of representations, even where such representations of the ‘not yet’ are performative in nature. It also comprises material capacities, technological, biophysical and affective in nature. The politics of anticipation is shaped by how these symbolic and material capacities, and the forms of agency they make possible, are distributed. As anticipation is an environmentally distributed capacity, it is suggested that the politics of anticipation is also an environmental politics. A conceptual framework for analysing anticipation as comprised of environmental capabilities is introduced, and fleshed out using a case study of energy infrastructure planning from the UK. Key elements of this framework include the concepts of anticipatory assemblages and future horizons or ‘styles’ of anticipation. Working through the case study as an empirical example of a conflict concerning the politics of anticipation and of ‘environments’, it is demonstrated how the relationships between styles of anticipation are materially constitutive of such conflicts.     

Metaphors,semiotics and futures studies

Metaphor belongs to key concepts of semiotics. I have made my career in the field of semiotics and I appreciate the possibility to tell to the scientific community of futurists how a semiotician sees the various functions of metaphors and their connections to the future. The edited volume CLA 2.0 (Inayatullah & Milojevic, 2015) shows that in addition to metaphors, many futures researchers have found the general language-based approach of semiotics. The paper deals with three issues: first the theory of metaphors as such, much discussed in the semiotic literature; then what semiotics says about the future; and finally, what kind of semiotics we are considering here. I would propose to scrutinise the problem of metaphors and future in light of my own new theory which I call ‘existential semiotics’.     

Hope and anticipation in education for a sustainable future

Global sustainability problems pose serious challenges for humanity. In handling these problems education for sustainable development (ESD) is seen as important. Different key competences that ESD should focus on have been introduced, such as the ability to deal with future dimensions. Still, studies indicate that future dimensions are not always included in ESD and that many young people are pessimistic concerning the global future. Therefore, one could argue that a focus on anticipatory emotions, especially hope, should be included in ESD. There is a worry, however, that hope will lead to unrealistic optimism and/or less engagement. The aim of this paper is to problematize the discussion about hope in relation to ESD and the global future by grounding it in theories from different disciplines and in empirical research about young people, hope, and climate change. The review shows that hope is a complex, multifaceted, and sometimes contested concept. Hope can be related to denial, but in other cases it can help people face and do something constructive with their worries about the global future. The close relation between hope and trust is emphasized and a need for critical emotional awareness in ESD is argued for.     

Bridging anticipation skills and intercultural competences as a means to reinforce the capacity of global citizens for learning to learn together

The view of the authors is that, in response to challenges created in many countries by the coexistence of communities of different origins and cultures, living together in peace requires a capacity to learn together and to navigate a plurality of cultures but also a plurality of futures.To explore this idea, a research has been conducted to identify future-oriented methodologies that can sustain activities in such fields as the culture of peace and global citizenship education. Such methodologies as Causal Layered Analysis, the Sarkar game, Transformative Scenario Planning and the framework of Futures Literacy are examined in relation to their added value for intercultural competences. The paper finishes on the presentation and analysis of a case study on a foresight participative workshop held with young people in Africa.The four methodologies and the case study presented in this paper provide, in our view, a strong impetus to further explore spaces where intercultural competences and the discipline of anticipation can be hybridized. Such hybridity seems to correspond to what is required of citizens in a globalizing world where solutions must not only be based on long term perspectives but also be shared across national, cultural, ethnic or religious boundaries.     

Alternative space futures: The next quarter-century

Space developments do not exist in a vacuum! The shape of future space activities will depend on a combination of social, economic and political forces, creating the determinants for different patterns of space utilization. Forecasts of alternative space futures can therefore be explored by integrating different scenarios of world development and space trends. Here, alternative world trends are related to the underlying dynamics of space development, in terms of the economic, military and scientific utilization of space. The importance of space as a political issue is thus emphasized, in that the outcomes of policy choices to be made both now and in the future will help shape the social and economic contexts in which space technology will be used in the decades ahead.     

Command-and-control: Alternative futures of geoengineering in an age of global weirding

In July 2012, Russ George, the founder of Planktos Inc., organized efforts to dump 100 tons of iron sulfate off the coast of Canada to engineer a plankton bloom that would, ostensibly, absorb carbon dioxide and store it in the depths of the Pacific Ocean. As George's geoengineering experiment is one of the largest and first of its kind, many were quick to denounce his rogue action while others were delighted to see that he succeeded as a large algae bloom was reported to have emerged. Using the George event as a point of entry for exploring alternative futures of geoengineering in an age of global weirding, this project fuses the 2 × 2 scenario modeling technique with the “Mānoa School” four-futures method by situating command and control, along X (control) and Y (command) axes as two critical uncertainties and key drivers of change that will impact the design, development, and diffusion of climate mitigation engineering initiatives, which some see as holding the only solution to avert global catastrophe and others condemn as a postnormal remedy.     

The future of small-scale mining: environmental and socioeconomic perspectives

Although small-scale mining provides innumerable benefits to the rural inhabitants and governments of the developing world, its operations have been responsible for a wide range of environmental and socioeconomic complications. This article examines the impacts of small-scale mining, and provides a perspective on the future of the industry. It first describes small-scale mining activity, emphasizing key definitional and locational characteristics. Next, it examines the socioeconomic impacts of the industry, along with its environmental problems. The article concludes by discussing the future of small-scale mining in developing countries.     

Colour the future green?: The uncertain significance of global green politics

A major value shift in industrialized countries in the same direction as the core values of the Greens movements suggests that there is a cultural phenomenon involving far more people than the overt political manifestation of it. This article links such a value shift with something more fundamental, namely a movement away from confident scientific positivism towards some kind of ill-defined transcendentalism. Related cultural and social movements in the industrialized countries and global attitudes in the developing world are examined. It appears that even if the Greens movements weaken or disappear in their present form, they are political manifestations of a broader cultural thrust that seems unlikely to diminish.     

环境责任保险在环境保护中的经济优势及依存条件分析

环境责任保险是一种运用现代保险制度解决环境问题的经济政策,在众多的环境保护措施中,环境责任保险凭借自身的经济优势得到了人们越来越多的关注和重视。本文在深入剖析其经济优势的基础上详细阐述了环境责任保险的依存条件,以期推动环境责任保险在我国能够顺利发展,并在环境保护中发挥重要作用。     

Environmental outlooks: How they frame futures and long term uncertainty

Futures studies intend to structure our knowledge and our judgement about the future by handling facts and values in a certain way. In other words, futures studies frame futures. These frames might be powerful, triggering social action and societal transformation, yet they risk to be criticised and provoke scepticism. The environmental field has a long tradition in futures studies: environmental outlooks. Some of these outlooks, e.g. those published by the IPCC are among the most prominent examples of outlooks that provoke scientific, social and political debate, create commotion and provoke action. Part of these discussions deal with how outlooks frame the future and how they handle the uncertainty inevitably linked to framing futures. The way these challenges are dealt with may affect the overall assessment of an environmental outlook. This article attempts to identify the way environmental outlooks frame futures. We do not strive for exhaustiveness, but deliberately restrict to an in-depth analysis of a handful of recent environmental outlooks. We conclude that environmental outlooks reflect a lack of clarity and argumentation upon how they frame futures and how they deal with uncertainty. This epistemological and methodological ambiguity risk to affect the outlooks’ credibility and impact.     

Social and environmental accounting,organisational change and management accounting: A processual view

Consistent with calls for in-depth studies of social and environmental accounting and reporting (SEAR) intervention (Bebbington, 2007, Fraser, 2012, Contrafatto, 2012), our paper focuses on the interrelationship between organisational change and SEAR practices, as well as the involvement of management accounting in such organisational dynamics. Drawing insight from both Laughlin (1991) and Burns and Scapens’ (2000) theoretical frameworks, we explore the processes of change through which SEAR practices become elevated to strategising status, in the context of broader organisational and extra-organisational developments, but we also illuminate how institutionalised assumptions of profit-seeking limit the extent to which broader sustainability concerns become infused into day-to-day business practice. Our paper highlights the importance of management accounting in facilitating and shaping the cumulative path of SEAR practices (and sustainability more generally); however, we also heed caution against uncritical reliance upon conventional management accounting tools. The following paper extends our understanding of SEAR practices as cumulative process over time, an awareness of the potential limits to such developments in profit-seeking organisations, and stresses a need to be circumspect when involving management accounting.     

Choosing diverse sets of plausible scenarios in multidimensional exploratory futures techniques

Morphological analysis allows any number of dimensions to be retained when framing future conditions, and techniques within morphological analysis determine which combinations of those dimensions represent plausible futures. However, even a relatively low number of dimensions in future conditions can lead to hundreds or even thousands of plausible future scenarios. Creating highly diverse but conceivable visions of the future in which to explore decision-making, exploratory futures techniques rely on the selection of a small number of plausible scenarios from the larger set. In this paper we describe a new method for finding maximally diverse sets containing a small number of plausible scenarios from a multi-dimensional morphological analysis. It is based on a mathematical optimization of diversity that is robust to the uncertainty in the framing of future factors and states and in what stakeholders might consider diverse combinations of those factors and states. We also describe implementation of the method as a software tool and its performance in recent exploratory scenario development by CGIAR and partners for regional environmental change, food security and livelihoods.     

The history of Western futures studies: An exploration of the intellectual traditions and three-phase periodization

The main purpose of this paper is to present a three-phase periodization of modern Western futures studies to construct historical classification. In order to reach this goal, the following intellectual traditions are introduced to review the philosophical and historical contexts that affect the very foundations of futures studies: (a) religions, (b) utopias, (c) historicism, (d) science fiction, and (e) systems thinking. The first phase (beginning in 1945 to the 1960s) was the era of scientific inquiry and rationalization of the futures characterized by the prevalence of technological forecasting, the rise of alternative futures in systematic ways, and the growth of professionalization of futures studies. In the first phase, futures had become objects of rationalization removed from the traditional approaches such as utopia, grandiose evolutionary ideas, naive prophecies, science fiction, religious attitudes, and mystical orientation. The second phase (the 1970s and the 1980s) saw the creation the global institution and industrialization of the futures. This era was marked by the rise of worldwide discourse on global futures, the development of normative futures, and the deep involvement of the business community in futures thinking. In the second phase, futures studies-industry ties were growing and the future-oriented thoughts extensively permeated the business decision-making process. The third phase (the 1990s – the present) reflects the current era of the neoliberal view and fragmentation of the futures. This phase is taking place in the time of neoliberal globalization and risk society discourses and is characterized by the dominance of foresight, the advance of critical futures studies, and the intensification of fragmentation. In the third phase, futures practice tends to be confined to the support of strategic planning, and hence is experiencing an identity crisis and loss of its earlier status of humanity-oriented futures.     

Corporate environmental disclosure and political connection in regulatory and leadership changes: The case of China

With a rapid increase of corporate environmental disclosure in developing countries, more attention is drawn to the extent to which this increase is influenced by corporate political connection. This paper focuses on China, a country experiencing increasing tensions between fast economic growth and heavy environmental pollution, complicated by high levels of political connections. A more important context in China is a historical leadership change entangled with significant regulatory reform to tackle corruption in 2013–14. Using hand-collected data from heavily polluting companies in 2012 and 2015 respectively, this study finds that there is a positive association between political connections of corporate chairmen and environmental disclosure levels in 2015 but not in 2012, suggesting that corporate disclosure behaviour has become more politically motivated after the regulatory and leadership change. There has been a significant improvement in environmental disclosure quality and this improvement is prominent in firms with politically connected chairmen. Although the regulatory change to eliminate corruption has led to substantial reductions in political connections of CEOs and senior executives, change associated with corporate chairmen is marginal. These results imply that the improvement of environmental disclosure is related more to the greater political intervention enabled by the leadership shift and power consolidation during the anti-corruption campaign than to the regulatory change to reduce political shield.     

Optimal fiscal policy with environmental tax and pollution abatement spending in a model with utility-enhancing environmental quality: lessons from Bulgaria

This paper characterized optimal fiscal policy in the presence of pollution, and evaluated it relative to the observed one in Bulgaria. To this end, a dynamic general-equilibrium model is calibrated to Bulgarian data. The main findings are: (i) The optimal steady-state income tax rate is zero; (ii) the benevolent Ramsey planner provides 20% higher utility-enhancing environmental quality; (iii) the optimal level of carbon taxes is almost three times higher, and the optimal level of abatement spending is six times higher; (iv) the optimal steady-state consumption tax is twice lower.     

Tone at the top: CEO environmental rhetoric and environmental performance

In this study we attempted to ascertain the environmental leadership and commitment of the CEO as evidence of “tone at the top” in the belief that this would lead to enhanced environmental performance. We measure “tone at the top” by the environmental disclosure score which is collected from a content analysis of CEO letters to shareholders. We adopt the two environmental performance measures: (1) Environmental Impact Score (EIS) from Newsweek Green Ranking and (2) Modeled Hazard Population Results (MHPR) based on Risk-Screening Environmental Indicator (RSEI) models built by EPA. The results indicate that the environmental disclosure score from the CEO letter is inversely correlated with environmental performance. The overall findings support legitimacy theory in that CEOs essentially “spin” firms' environmental performance so it looks better than it actually is.     

Work and nonwork : Europe in the 1980s and beyond

Through an understanding of major trends in employment, unemployment and informal work and in patterns of life, possible alternative futures in work and nonwork may be identified. Communications and information technologies (IT) may themselves transform the recent transformations in work and nonwork, and already disadvantaged groups may further suffer unless fully involved in the policy processes relating to IT and its products.     

The Form. Measurement and Management of Inflation Anticipation

通货膨胀是影响各国经济发展和社会稳定的重要问题,而通胀预期又是影响实际通货膨胀的重要因素。我国通货膨胀随着社会转型开始呈现周期性变化,对我国通货膨胀基于成本推动型、需求拉动型、结构型等等的研究也已经较多,但不容忽视的是,我国通货膨胀的惯性特征很强,通货膨胀的滞后效应十分明显,究其原因是通胀预期的作用。本文基于对通胀预期形成的认识,对其影响因素进行研究,然后通过实证分析,得到通胀预期形成的相关结论,最后对通货膨胀的管理提出政策建议。     

The impact of interactive and diagnostic levers of eco-control on eco-innovation: The mediating role of employee environmental citizenship behaviour

The study contributes to the management control system (MCS), environmental and behavioural reaction literature by examining the mediating role of employee environmental citizenship behaviour on the association between the interactive and diagnostic use of eco-control with eco-innovation. Based on an empirical analysis of 406 Australian organisations, the results indicate that employee environmental citizenship behaviour mediates the effect of both the interactive and diagnostic use of eco-control on eco-innovation (specifically, eco-product innovation). The findings highlight the importance of eco-controls and employee behaviour, specifically employee environmental citizenship behaviour, in influencing eco-innovation.     

Modeling board governance,environmental expertise,and social engagement effects on firm environmental performance: Panel data evidence

Prior research establishes that board governance quality measures positively impact firm environmental performance. In this study, we propose an empirical model using structural equation modeling (SEM) to explore additional enhancements to board governance, namely board environmental expertise (BEE) and board social engagement (BSE) and show that they incrementally improve firm environmental performance (EN). Our proposed latent construct measure, BEE, goes beyond traditionally dichotomous measures used in the literature. BEE has a total effect on firm environmental performance that is over two thirds the size of effects arising from traditional governance quality measures (GOV). The second enhancement of our model is the focus on BSE, a novel construct to the CSR literature. In addition to possessing environmental knowledge enabling expertise, we demonstrate that a board with a deeper commitment to society will further improve firm environmental performance. Using SEM, we find that the indirect effects of GOV, BEE, and BSE on EN represent a substantial portion of the total effects on EN. Hence, ignoring these indirect effects would result in substantial understatement of the effects of improvements to governance on environmental performance.