1948 and not nineteen eighty-four

This article marks the return of I.F. Clarke to the pages of Futures. Those readers who have followed Futures since our first number in September 1968 will recall his long-running series on the development of futuristic fiction and the coming of modern forecasting techniques. He likes to be known as the oldest inhabitant of Futures so far. Professor Clarke was once described, with some accuracy, as ‘Mr Future’ by a Glasgow newspaper. The style recognized the work he has done in the investigation of the many ways in which our ideas about the future have evolved and have found expression in science fiction, imaginary wars, ideal states, Orwellian nightmares and in the proliferation of futurological studies that have swept the world since Ossip K. Flechtheim coined the term futurologist in 1943. This specially commissioned article on Orwell's true place in futures studies serves as an hors d'oeuvre to a new series in Futures by Professor Clarke: “An almanac of anticipations” will begin in the next issue.     

Students staying home: Questioning the wisdom of a digital future for Australian universities

The understanding of the role of global digital technologies in the future of Australian universities mirrors the international debate as exemplified by some of the articles in this special issue of Futures. However, this debate between cautious optimists on the one hand and supreme optimists on the other is misleading, because the future for universities lies neither in a grudging acceptance of technology's inevitability nor a mindless embrace of it. The complex evolution to a true ‘knowledge supernetwork' requires an understanding of the socially constructed nature of technologies including the social technology known as learning. Moreover, it requires us to reinstate a perspective missing from both the articles in this issue and from the debate in Australia, namely that of students.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

Prometheus unbound

Professor Nicholas Onuf argued in the February 1984 issue of Futures that those participating in the revival of interest in long waves of economic activity had generally failed to relate their analyses to the debate on growth spawned by Limits to Growth. The challenge is taken up in this article, which relates the two debates in terms of the role of technology in long-term growth and cycles; changes in ‘technological paradigm’ are seen as a major feature of each successive growth cycle. The article finally discusses the effects of paradigm change on employment and investment, and confronts the central issue of Onuf's paper—the social and political effects of the micro-electronics revolution.     

First steps: towards purposeful activities in scenario thinking and future studies

In this paper, we contribute to the understanding of the field of scenario development and future studies, which has been a key debate in Futures over the past three of four years. Our contribution is less on the philosophical issues surrounding future studies, but more on the hurdles faced by those interested in practising in the area of scenario planning and future studies. The issues presented and discussed in this article arise from a number of action learning research projects that we have conducted with small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in Scotland, who have embraced scenario development for the first time as part of their strategic management and learning process.Our contribution is targeted at identifying and understanding the hurdles to be overcome when (such) organisations consider adopting scenario development or future studies. The contribution is designed to first, help those in the field of scenario development and future studies be mindful of these hurdles and to build a trusting relationship between the scenario practioner and the client, and secondly, help those managers willing to engage in such activities to better understand the purpose of such work.First we identify three key hurdles: (a) organisational culture (i.e. tacit assumptions on scenario development and future studies); (b) “client” state of mind; (c) fear of engaging with the outside/fear of the future. We argue that these hurdles are a serious threat to the relevance and effectiveness of futures work. We argue that these hurdles need to be better understood as a basis for improving the impact and contribution that scenario development and future studies can make.Later in this article we propose a framework to help understand the purpose of scenario development or future studies work. This framework can be used at the outset of any engagement or study, to help the “client” to identify the purpose of such work and to understand its role and scope. We argue that this framework contributes to more purposeful, relevant and actionable scenario development and future studies in the future.Unless you changed something in the minds of managers, a scenario project had failed (Harvard Bus. Rev. 63(6) (1985) 139). Going one-step further, we would argue that unless something tangible happens as the result of the scenario development and future studies work, we have wasted our time.     

Events and economic forecasting models

In the June 1972 issue of Futures, Olaf Helmer developed the idea of cross-impact analysis to include both events (singular occurrences) and trends (gradual developments).¹ The present article pursues further this idea, using an econometric forecasting model to represent the economic trends in an economy, and a sequential cross-impact method to analyse the events which could change its course. The application of this idea, also described in the article, suggests a procedure for improving the communication between model builders and final users.     

Is the future a political economy? Functional analysis of three leading foresight and futures studies journals

This article tests whether the field of foresight and futures studies shows significant variable selection biases in the modelling of the future in general and the impact of function systems in particular. We performed a word frequency analysis to measure the relative importance of the political system, the economy, science, art, religion, law, sport, health, education, and the mass media to three pertinent journals in the field of futures studies and foresight. The results show that Futures, Long Range Planning, and Technological Forecasting and Social Change have different and changing preferences for the above function systems, an information which authors may find helpful in supporting decisions on where to submit. Our results also show that all journals feature a highly significant bias to the triple helix systems – the political system, the economy, and science. While the latter bias may be adequate to scientific journals, the dominant focus on the political system and the economy as well as the corresponding neglect of the other systems points at implicit presumptions about the importance of the individual systems that may not be in line with their importance to the larger society.     

Trends in the chemical industry

In March 1970, Futures published an analysis of the major trends affecting the chemical industry's general structure and an assessment of its future operations and market potential. Although the authors score highly for the correct identification of trends within the chemical industry itself—apart from seeing a trend towards even bigger chemical complexes—they assumed a continuing development of major postwar social, political and economic trends in the industry's environment. The major shifts which occurred in the 1970s served to undermine the basic assumptions on which the authors' projections were made.     

An other view of integral futures: De/reconstructing the IF brand

This paper points to some limitations of the narrow version of integral futures (IF) as represented in the recent special issue of Futures (2008, vol. 40, issue 2). I also propose several ways that the IF brand could be refreshed through a broader and deeper approach to integral futures by way of a scholarly engagement with other kindred discourses. The main focus of this paper is to open out beyond the “myth-of-the-given” in relation to the notion of integral and in this way broaden and deepen possibilities for integral futures.     

The chronospace: A proposed methodology for futures studies

In a recent article in Futures, ¹ eclectics was presented as the first part of a methodology of futures studies. In this second article, time is introduced as a variable and expressed in a diagram entitled the chronospace. Time is treated both as a subjective perception and as a vehicle for causality. The passage of time is perceived as a “scenario”, the content of which must vary with the scenario writer and the medium used. The perceived symmetry between historical and futures studies leads the author to propose the construction of a new science of time—chronosophy —to use with eclectics as an operational methodology for futures studies.     

Green accounting: Reflections from a CSR and environmental disclosure perspective

In this commentary, we reflect on Thornton's (2013) extension to his original CA Magazine article on environmental accounting (Thornton, 1993) as well as the original contribution. Given our background in social and environmental disclosure research, we question Thornton's narrow focus on environmental accounting as it relates to the debits and credits of financial reporting, and we attempt to illustrate the problems that voluntary environmental disclosure creates with respect to reduced incentives for companies to improve environmental performance. We conclude by identifying our concerns with the future of environmental accounting given the recent ‘rediscovery’ of the topic by mainstream accounting researchers.     

The general-purpose model: observations on SARUM 76

In the February 1977 issue of Futures, P.C. Roberts described the structure and philosophy of the global modelling work being carried out at the Systems Analysis Research Unit (SARU) at the Department of the Environment, UK. During 1976, the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) carried out an evaluation of the model under a contract awarded by the Department of the Environment, and we would like to present some of our views on the model, and some results obtained during the evaluation. This is done largely with reference to points made in Roberts' paper.     

Inventing a sustainable future: Australia and the challenge of eco-innovation

Australia's possible futures depend on choices that are made now. One key to Australia's directions and success will be its capacity to shape an environment for innovation which meets its broader economic, social and environmental goals. We argue from both past successes and future potentials that opportunities are available for Australians to frame for themselves an economically attractive and globally constructive role by shaping their strategies to facilitate eco-innovation directed towards environmental sustainability.We contrast the role of past innovations in facilitating critical developments in the amelioration of the destruction of stratospheric ozone with current opportunities for Australia to contribute through innovation to resolving the problem of anthropogenic global warming and climate change. In particular, we focus on the powerful potential role of information technology in facilitating technological and social innovation towards sustainability through eco-innovation, and discuss key strategic principles in the context of the potential of technologies already under development. Such technologies offer exciting and important choices for Australians over the next few years.     

Building bridges: Institutional perspectives on interdisciplinarity

There have been a number of contributions to this journal (Futures) that discuss interdisciplinarity and transdisciplinarity (see our reference list), several of which refer to the institutional character of academic disciplines. The exact nature of this institutional character, however, is generally not discussed in great detail. Our contribution draws on W. Richard Scott's synthetic reconstruction of the many approaches to institutional analysis, aiming to elucidate what an institutional perspective on interdisciplinarity would entail.Without knowledge from several academic disciplines, important problems in contemporary society cannot be solved. Consequently, the quest for interdisciplinary is gaining support among many scientists and funding agencies. In this article, we argue that even if we can understand the ambitions of interdisciplinarity, we also need to be aware of the barriers involved. Interdisciplinary approaches to framing and solving problems will almost inevitably stumble into barriers that are of a structural, cultural and a cognitive nature and problems related to disciplines as social institutions. The question to be discussed is if and how these barriers can be overcome. We claim that it is the structural barriers that are the easiest ones to address, whereas the cultural barriers are more difficult to overcome because they require more than a regulatory fix.     

New development: Managing and accounting for sustainable development across generations in public services—and call for papers

Social and environmental justice across generations is a fundamental attribute of sustainable development. In this article, which is also a call for papers for a future theme in Public Money & Management (PMM), we develop our case for further research on how governments and public service organizations seek to address sustainable development in their decision-making processes. We believe that accounting for social and environmental aspects is an underdeveloped area of research and practice that is worthy of further critical enquiry. We therefore call on researchers and practitioners to submit their research to a themed issue of PMM on managing and accounting for sustainable development in public services.     

Reprint of “Discourses of transdisciplinarity: Looking back to the future”

The current ascendancy of transdisciplinarity (TD) is marked by an exponential growth of publications, a widening array of contexts, and increased interest across academic, public and private sectors. This investigation traces historical trends, rhetorical claims, and social formations that have shaped three major discourses of TD: transcendence, problem solving, and transgression. In doing so, it also takes account of developments that have emerged or gained traction since the early 21st century when a 2004 issue of Futures on the same topic was being written.The epistemological problem at the heart of the discourse of transcendence is the idea of unity, traced in the West to ancient Greece. The emergence of transdisciplinarity was not a complete departure from this historical quest, but it signalled the need for new syntheses at a time of growing fragmentation of knowledge and culture. New synthetic frameworks emerged, including general systems, post/structuralism, feminist theory, and sustainability. New organizations also formed to advance conceptual frameworks aimed at transcending the narrowness of disciplinary worldviews and interdisciplinary combinations of approaches that did not supplant the status quo of academic structure and classification.The discourse of problem solving is not new. It was fundamental to conceptions of interdisciplinarity in the first half of the 20th century. Heightened pressure to solve problems of society, though, fostered growing alignment of TD with solving complex problems as well as trans-sector participation of stakeholders in society and team-based science. The discourse of transgression was forged in critique of the existing system of knowledge and education. TD became aligned with imperatives of cultural critique, socio-political movements, and conceptions of post-normal science and wicked problems that break free of reductionist and mechanistic approaches. It also became a recognized premise in interdisciplinary fields, including cultural studies, women's and gender studies, urban studies, and environmental studies. And, calls for TD arrived at a moment of wider crisis in the privileging of dominant forms of knowledge, human rights accountability, and democratic participation.Even with distinct patterns of definition, though, discourses are not air-tight categories. Transcendence was initially an epistemological project, but the claim of transcendence overlaps increasingly with problem solving. The imperatives of transgression also cut across the discourses of transcendence and problem solving. Broadly speaking, though, emphasis is shifting from traditional epistemology to problem solving, from the pre-given to the emergent, and from universality to hybridity and contextuality.     

The mismanagement of evil

This article stretches the boundaries of Futures' coverage. It may be taken as a satire on either world order thinking or on the responses of those who oppose such Utopian visions, or both. The ‘scientific management of evil’ considered here may be the best definition of 20th century totalitarian systems yet devised—although some may consider it inapposite to worry about what evil may be possible in a steady-state peaceful world which still seems so distant at present.     

Islamic Banking Sustainability: A Review of Literature and Directions for Future Research

This study reviews literature on the Islamic banking sustainability and presents directions for future research. The article discourses scholars’ and practitioners’ views on the two perspectives of sustainability in relation to the objectives of Islamic banking and finance. That there are limited studies on Islamic banking sustainability is one of the major issues presented in the article. The study highlights essential issues on the sustainability without in-depth empirical analysis. The needs for long-term economic, social, and environmental sustainability are not a compromising issue. Therefore, Islamic banks must strike a balance between the institutional, societal, and environmental sustainability in order to achieve the objective of Sharia.     

Environmental issue entrepreneurship: a Schumpeterian perspective

In this paper, the recent growth in national and international environmental legislation and the subsequent emergence of rather vague ecological concepts like sustainable development and the precautionary principle, are analyzed from a Schumpeterian perspective in which polical issue entrepreneurschip plays a central role. Schumpeter wrote that the emergence of unfavorable circumstances in capitalist societies will activate strong opposition from social critics and intellectuals. Is modern environmentalism one of the most powerful recent forces that will further impact capitalism? Did Schumpeter foresee this evolution and what are the mechanisms that did lead to this situation? We discuss aspects of Schumpeterian issue entrepreneurship and relate these to theories on the emergence of environmental regulation, the expansion of environmental organizations, the use of new instruments in environmental policy and pro-active business strategies.