Prospect theory,mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Prospect theory (PT) is a widely accepted theory for decisions under uncertainty. However, so far a systematic application to climate policy (CP) does not exist. One important postulation of PT is that outcomes are perceived as gains or losses, relative to the reference point. When it comes to CP, different decision-makers may have different reference points. For example, one decision-maker perceives the current climate as the reference point whereas another decision-maker may have another one, say climate in 100 years. For the former, climate damages are losses and the benefits of CP are reductions of losses. For the latter, benefits of CP are gains. PT suggests that the former places a higher value in CP than the latter. After a critical review whether and how PT may be applied to CP, the paper systematically presents this and other cases where PT offers new insights into climate-related analyses, notwithstanding the importance of well-known aspects such as discounting, altruism, political and economic costs. It is shown that accounting for PT may contribute to a better understanding of some well-known puzzles in the climate debate, including different preferences for CP amongst individuals and nations, the role of technical vs. financial adaptation, and the apparent preference for hard protection measures in coastal adaptation. Finally, concrete possibilities for empirical research on these effects are proposed.     

The role of accounting in supporting adaptation to climate change

The study is one of the first concerned with the topic of accounting and climate change adaptation. It proposes that the accounting role can support organisational climate change adaptation by performing the following functions: (i) a risk assessment function (assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity), (ii) a valuation function (valuing adaptation costs and benefits) and (iii) a disclosure function (disclosure of risk associated with climate change impacts). This study synthesises and expands on existing research and practice in environmental accounting and sets the scene for future research and practice in the emerging area of accounting for climate risk.     

Detecting local environmental change: the role of experience in shaping risk judgments about global warming

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events (e.g. flooding, heat waves, and wildfires). As a result, it is often reasoned that as more individuals experience unusual weather patterns that are consistent with changing climate conditions, the more their concern about global warming will increase, and the more motivated they will become to respond and address the problem effectively. Social science research evaluating the relationships between personal experiences with and risk perceptions of climate change, however, show mixed results. Here, we analyze a representative statewide survey of Floridians and compare their risk perceptions of five-year trends in climate change with local weather station data from the five years preceding the survey. The results show that Floridians are unable to detect five-year increases in temperature, but some can detect changes in precipitation. Despite an inability to detect the correct direction of change, respondents were significantly more likely than not to correctly identify the season in which most change occurred. Nevertheless, compared to local experience, risk perceptions of climate change were more strongly predicted by subjective experiences of environmental change, personal beliefs about climate change, and political ideology. Results from the study suggest that long-term changes in climate patterns and extreme weather events need to be interpreted by weather and climate experts within the context of climate change; individuals cannot be expected to detect or comprehend such complex linkages directly.     

Bounding the future: The use of scenarios in assessing climate change impacts

This paper investigates the contribution of socio-economic scenarios to improve decisions and policies in climate assessments. We specifically looked at adaptation projects in the Dutch Climate changes Spatial Planning programme. Based on the four decision failure criteria neglect of internal information, bounded rationality, insufficient expansion of existing mental models and stickiness and lack of friction of information and knowledge, it was concluded that in these projects, socio-economic scenarios appear to generate useful data, but that their full potential to reduce decision failure is not likely to be exploited. Therefore adaptation options suggested by these studies may not be ‘future-proof’: they may be appropriate in some future societies, but fail in others. We believe similar results would be obtained in other contexts. Possible decision failures are caused by neglecting socio-economic developments, limiting the number of storylines generated by scenario studies to one or two, lack of stakeholder involvement in the scenario development and ignoring discontinuities.     

Climate change,risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature

This article reviews how climate change could be considered an additional source of market risk. I discuss the types of data needed to analyse the climate risk drivers that shape the dynamics of the equity market. I present empirical evidence at both the macro and micro-level, analysing whether and to what extent the equity market prices climate change and related risks. Top-down and bottom-up approaches are compared to understand which climate risk is more likely to affect the cross-section of stock returns, both within and across sectors. Emphasis is also placed on investors’ beliefs about climate change risks, and the related asset pricing implications are analysed. I conclude by illustrating further directions for both empirical and theoretical research in the field of climate finance.     

Risk regulation,community pressure and the use of management accounting in managing climate change risk: Australian evidence

This exploratory study is amongst the first to investigate how companies perceive the regulation of carbon emissions and the pressure exerted by the community in an environment characterised by risk and uncertainty. Semi-structured interviews were conducted among 39 executives who were directly involved in carbon emissions management in 18 large listed Australian companies. Consistent with Prospect Theory, we find that decision-makers are threat biased and are more likely to take immediate actions when climate change issues are framed as threats as opposed to opportunities. From the interview data, it is seen that managers use management accounting techniques as a risk management tool in mitigating risks associated climate change issues. Furthermore, this use of management accounting appears to be driven primarily by the protection of economic interests, regulatory pressure and reputational pressure. The study provides insights into how perceptions of climate change uncertainties and external pressure for disclosure of emissions information influence companies to use management accounting in managing climate change risk.     

Climate-change lore and its implications for climate science: Post-science deliberations?

Using of the results of survey questionnaires distributed to climate scientists who focus on the German Baltic coast, regional political decision makers on the German Baltic coast and weather observations from the same region, this paper assesses the existence of developing climate-change lore and the implications for the role of climate science in the science–policy interface. The Oxford Dictionary (1993) provides one definition of lore as ‘A doctrine, a precept; a creed, a religion.’ This is the definition adopted for this paper. The paper concludes that the discrepancies among weather observations, scientific assessments and decision makers’ perceptions suggest that climate-change lore exists, or is coming into existence. The paper then discusses the implications for the science–policy interface and suggests that given current trajectories, science could come to play a secondary role to climate-change lore in regional political decision making concerning climate change. To the truth-to-power model of the science–policy interface and the tenets of post-normal science, three additional possibly evolving science–policy configurations (as pertaining to the climate change issue) are offered.     

我国财政政策与货币政策协调配合问题研究

建立科学合理的财政-货币政策协调配合机制,是完善中国宏观经济调控所面临的一项重要任务.本文首先分阶段简要回顺中国财政政策和货币政策协调的历史过程,然后分析两种政策的协调配合存在的问题,认为集中表现为国债市场存在的缺陷以及财政投融资体系小完善这两个方面,最后有针对性地提出改善两种政策协调配合机制的政策建议.     

Disclosure on climate change: Analysing the UK ETS effects

The objective of this paper is to explore the nature of disclosure on climate change in annual and standalone reports of organisations who took part in the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS). This article uses content analysis to codify disclosure in order to compare disclosure in different media as well as the possible effect that membership in an emissions trading scheme may have had on reporting. The results suggest the UK ETS was associated with differences in disclosure. This study contributes to the literature by providing a longitudinal study in two disclosure media in the UK ETS context.     

Accounting for climate change and the self-regulation of carbon disclosures

Adopting a form of “critical dialogic engagement” (Bebbington et al., 2007), this paper explores how dominant environmental discourses can influence and shape carbon disclosure regulation. Carbon-related disclosures have increased significantly in the last five years, and many of these disclosures remain voluntary. This paper considers both the construction of self-regulated carbon disclosure practices and the role that this kind of carbon information may have in climate change-related decision making. Our preliminary findings indicate that the methodological diversity underpinning carbon disclosures may inhibit the usefulness of climate change-related data. To explore these issues, this paper focuses on the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) and the use of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Protocol as a reporting model within it.     

When science meets strategic realpolitik: The case of the Copenhagen UN climate change summit

This paper argues that the impasse over tackling climate change at the 2009 climate change summit is a result of the outcome of the prevailing power and politics at the summit. The paper discusses the sociological literature on power and notes that the failure of the summit illustrates the fragility of legitimacy and authority. The paper rehearses key parts of the chronology of the summit and argues that the politics of domination often prevail over the politics of legitimacy. Moreover, the way in which both science and politics have failed to legitimate the issue of climate change is explored. The paper closes with a discussion of what is required to fix the issue as legitimate and meriting serious action by major international agencies and economies.     

货币政策对房地产市场的传导效应:理论、方法与政策

从货币政策传导理论、货币政策传导主要研究方法(VAR向量自回归)以及各国研究学者对货币金融政策研究评价三个方面对国内外学者关于货币政策对房地产市场的研究完成初步的归纳与讨论,认为目前国内相关研究应在借鉴国外学者的研究方法和研究思路上,向实证研究发展.     

Drivers of tight carbon control in the context of climate change regulation

Our study examines the drivers of tight budgetary control in carbon management in the context of climate change regulation. Using the setting of New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), our study explores how firms manage their carbon performance using carbon-focused budgetary control. Based on a survey data from New Zealand firms, including both those with and those without an ETS compliance obligations, our results suggest that economic and regulatory environmental pressures, the level of proactiveness of emissions management strategy, the level of integration of carbon issues in strategic and operational processes and the perceived importance of carbon issues are the significant drivers of tight carbon-focused budgetary control.     

Command-and-control: Alternative futures of geoengineering in an age of global weirding

In July 2012, Russ George, the founder of Planktos Inc., organized efforts to dump 100 tons of iron sulfate off the coast of Canada to engineer a plankton bloom that would, ostensibly, absorb carbon dioxide and store it in the depths of the Pacific Ocean. As George's geoengineering experiment is one of the largest and first of its kind, many were quick to denounce his rogue action while others were delighted to see that he succeeded as a large algae bloom was reported to have emerged. Using the George event as a point of entry for exploring alternative futures of geoengineering in an age of global weirding, this project fuses the 2 × 2 scenario modeling technique with the “Mānoa School” four-futures method by situating command and control, along X (control) and Y (command) axes as two critical uncertainties and key drivers of change that will impact the design, development, and diffusion of climate mitigation engineering initiatives, which some see as holding the only solution to avert global catastrophe and others condemn as a postnormal remedy.     

Public priorities and expectations of climate change impacts in the United Kingdom

Irrespective of the success of climate mitigation efforts, societies worldwide face the challenge of adapting to a changing climate. In this paper, we examine UK residents’ expectations of future threats and opportunities associated with climate change impacts, along with willingness to prioritise different climate change impacts for investment. Using a national survey (n = 2007), we report on three main findings. First, UK residents tend to expect threats related to flooding and wet weather to be more likely and concerning than heat extremes or opportunities. Second, UK residents’ expectations of climate change impacts do not align with expert assessments, especially showing lower estimates of heat-related threats as compared to experts. Third, willingness to allocate resources to potential climate change impacts tends to be more strongly associated with anticipated concern should they occur than climate change belief or the expected likelihood of them occurring. We discuss the implications of our findings for policies and communications about climate change adaptation in the UK and elsewhere.     

Puzzling,powering and perpetuating: Long-term decision-making by the Dutch Delta Committee

Long term policy issues like climate change adaptation are considered wicked in the sense that uncertain knowledge and volatile societal understandings associated to the issue might jeopardize long term sustainment of adaptation policies. Uncertainty or sudden societal opposition might politically be employed to dismantle earlier made policies or investments and therefore threaten long term adaptive capacity. This article highlights how successful long-term decision-making can be understood as a matter of puzzling over uncertainty and powering for getting things done, but above all requires sustainment of these decisions on the long term. For doing so the paper analyses the decision-making process of the Dutch Delta Committee in 2008, which firmly put the climate adaptation issue on the Dutch political agenda and subsequently sustained the issue on the policy agenda through the creation of a Delta Commissioner, a Delta Fund and a Delta Act. Our analysis illustrates how the crucial actors in and around the Second Delta Committee deployed strategies of puzzling, powering, and what we define as perpetuation to deal with the long-term policy issue of climate adaptation. The latter is especially important for policy issues that require a long-term continued effort by policy-makers, or will only manifest themselves on the long term. Then, it is not only important to create meaning and organize power now, but also to maintain and ensure that meaning and power for time to come.     

产业政策、创新行为与企业加成率——基于战略性新兴产业政策的研究

本文基于1998-2013年中国工业企业数据和专利数据,采用双重差分方法评估战略性新兴产业政策对企业加成率的影响程度、作用机制和有效实施空间。研究发现:(1)对生产率和研发水平较高的行业实施战略性新兴产业政策,总体上显著增加了企业专利申请量,有效激发了创新主体活力。(2)由于影响企业生产率的成本效应大于影响产品质量的价格效应,导致战略性新兴产业政策一定程度上降低了企业加成率。(3)行业技术差距对战略性新兴产业政策的加成率效应具有显著负向调节作用,随着行业技术水平接近前沿,战略性新兴产业政策实施效果呈渐进式优化。(4)由于企业主体异质性,战略性新兴产业政策具有的“选择性”特征会引致“重数量轻质量”创新陷阱,这是造成企业加成率下降的重要原因。本文有助于更好理解产业政策对制造业高质量发展的推动作用,对产业政策实施效果的进一步优化具有一定参考价值。     

论行为公共政策及其在财政治理中的应用:逻辑、案例与对策

行为公共政策尚处于全球学术研究的前沿领域,而其应用特别值得中国中等收入发展阶段财政治理的重视和探讨。本文首先论述了行为经济理论四个阶段的发展逻辑,并对每个阶段进行了简要述评。基于理论逻辑所揭示的从"经济人"到"人类"的假设条件变化,在对公共政策进行简要回顾的基础上,本文阐述了行为经济为其带来的改变,并对行为政策与传统政策进行了比较分析。接着,在提出行为政策的五点特征及其对财政治理的启示后,本文较详细阐述了行为政策在全球实践的典型案例,并在最后为中国当下财政治理提出了五个方面的对策建议。     

Climate change financial risks: Implications for asset pricing and interest rates

In addition to tail macroeconomic events (e.g. wars, financial crises and pandemics), climate change poses a threat to financial stability — with extreme climatic events increasing in frequency and intensity and policy risks putting pressure on asset valuations. We study the effect of a changing climate on asset prices and interest rates through the lens of a dynamic CAPM with rare disasters, time-varying risk and recursive preferences. In our model, a changing climate makes tail events more frequent and less predictable, increasing the premium of climate risk; interestingly, this change may not be fully reflected in the overall market risk premium that includes both components of risk: macroeconomic and environmental. Our results also support the hypothesis of a declining real rate of interest as the planet warms, while the increasing risk of climate policy reduces the participation of brown assets in the market portfolio.     

Climate change impacts and its implications on future water resource management in the Meghna Basin

Copious precipitation in the Meghna Basin has remarkable consequences for floods in the north-eastern region of Bangladesh. In addition, due to climate change more frequent extreme precipitation may also increase the frequency and intensity of flash floods. In this study, a hydrologic model H08 has been applied over the basin at a relatively fine grid resolution (10 km). The impacts of climate change are assessed by using the super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S with A1B scenario through three time-slice experiments; the base-period (1979–2003), the near-future (2015–2039), and the far-future (2075–2099) periods. This study investigates the spatio-temporal changes and the changes in the frequency of precipitation and runoff with different magnitude ranges and finds the implications for water resources management under climate change. Results show that, (a) the projected maximum increment of mean annual precipitation (runoff) is +23% (+34%) and +31% (+39%) during the near-future and the far-future, respectively, (b) the projected increment of median value of monthly discharges at basin outlet is significantly high in wet period (May-July), ranging from 38 to 44% and 25–104% in the near-future and the far-future, respectively. Moreover, the monsoonal peaks are expected to come about 1 ∼ 1.5 month earlier, which ultimately lead to higher possibility of earlier flash flood in the future. This anticipated higher increment in peak discharge as well as future shifting of seasonal cycle of river discharge will have significant implications for agriculture and flood disaster management. Findings will also contribute to enhance water resource management in the basin and improve the design of adaptive measures.