The critical role of history in scenario thinking: Augmenting causal analysis within the intuitive logics scenario development methodology

The historian Eric Hobsbawm stated that ‘The safest empirical generalization about history is still that nobody heeds its obvious lessons much’. Whether at a macroeconomic level or within individual organisations there are numerous examples of this, such as the economic crash of 2008, the causes of which had many parallels with those that caused the great depression 80 years previously. On the other hand however, overly-relying on the past as a guide to the future has its own obvious dangers—not least that important future events may have no past precedent. As such, the present paper firstly provides a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of using the past as a guide to the future. It then examines the role of history in scenario work, arguing that history should receive greater emphasis as part of the scenario planning process. We suggest changes to the standard Intuitive Logics (IL) approach to scenario planning which would render learning from history a more central component of the scenario process, in contrast to its current peripheral role. Rather than diminishing scenario planning’s ability to facilitate a consideration of how the future may differ from the past, we show how a greater emphasis on history can enhance consideration of the causality of future change. An adapted IL that has more emphasis on historical analysis can augment scenario planning’s effectiveness as a tool for consideration of the future.     

Exploring the interaction between technology and morality in the field of genetic susceptibility testing: A scenario study

With the rise of genomics promises and concerns have emerged about future possibilities for screening of genetic susceptibilities to common diseases in the population. In this article we start from the assumption that for a better understanding of the future ethical implications of genetic susceptibility screening we need to address the interaction between technological and moral developments in society. We introduce a techno-ethical scenario approach and show how it may help us to explore more systematically potential future interactions between technological and moral developments in the field of genetic susceptibility screening. The first step is a historical account of population screening, focussing on the ways in which emerging practices of (genetic) screening have been mediated by an evolving moral landscape in our society. Based on this history we present a techno-ethical scenario of the future, showing how technological developments may shape conditions in our society in which the introduction and use of genetic susceptibility tests more and more become a matter of private decisions, reinforcing claims to individual self-determination as a deeply rooted value in the moral landscape of our society.     

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

The global container transport system is changing quickly. Ports can be severely affected by these changes; therefore, ports need insight into how the system might change and what the impact of this will be on their competitive position. Given the intrinsic complexity of the container transport system and the presence of a wide range of deeply uncertain factors affecting the system, we use an exploratory modeling approach to study future scenarios for the global container network. Using scenario discovery and worst-case discovery, we assess the implications of various uncertain factors on the competitive position of the port of Rotterdam. It is found that overall the competitive position of Rotterdam is quite robust with respect to the various uncertain factors. The main vulnerability is the quality of the hinterland connections. A modest deterioration of the quality of the hinterland connections, resulting in increased travel time, will result in a loss of throughput for Rotterdam.     

A pragmatist approach to transdisciplinarity in sustainability research: From complex systems theory to reflexive science

The importance of questioning the values, background assumptions, and normative orientations shaping sustainability research has been increasingly acknowledged, particularly in the context of transdisciplinary research, which aims to integrate knowledge from various scientific and societal bodies of knowledge. Nonetheless, the concept of reflexivity underlying transdisciplinary research is not sufficiently clarified and, as a result, is hardly able to support the development of social learning and social experimentation processes needed to support sustainability transitions. In particular, the concept of reflexivity is often restricted to building social legitimacy for the results of a new kind of ‘complex systems science’, with little consideration of the role of non-scientific expertise and social innovators in the design of the research practice itself.The key hypothesis of the paper is that transdisciplinary research would benefit from adopting a pragmatist approach to reflexivity. Such an approach relates reflexivity to collective processes of problem framing and problem solving through joint experimentation and social learning that directly involve the scientific and extra-scientific expertise. To test this hypothesis, the paper proposes a framework for analysing the different types of reflexive processes that play role in transdisciplinary research. The main conclusion of the analysis is the need to combine conventional consensus-oriented deliberative approaches to reflexivity with more open-ended, action-oriented transformative approaches.     

A geographically weighted approach to measuring efficiency in panel data: The case of US saving banks

This paper discusses a new approach to controlling for the environment when estimating efficiency. In response to the literature on the international comparison of bank efficiency, we draw the attention to a local dimension of comparison. By introducing geographical weights and estimating local frontiers for each US savings bank in the 2001–09 period, we find that the bank technical performance is higher for most banks in comparison to a fixed-effects approach. This result highlights the importance of taking into account the local environment and constraints while analyzing banks’ performance, so as not to consider the factors that are exogenous to these institutions as inefficiencies. Further analysis could improve the weighs calculation by employing other measures of interconnectedness besides geographical distance.     

A stopping time approach to assessing the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention: An application to Japanese data

I propose a new methodology to assess the effect of foreign exchange (FX) intervention, based on the probability of an FX rate reaching. The variable is the probability of an FX rate reaching a particular threshold before reaching another. Importantly, the probability depends on not only the level, but also the trend and volatility of a current FX rate. When an intervention changes the probability in a desired direction, the intervention is effective. The notable feature of the probability is that it considers both the level and volatility of an FX rate comprehensively, while previous studies have examined these effects of FX intervention separately. Empirical results based on regression and nearest-neighbor analyses applied to Japanese data indicate that publicity and size are significant in the effectiveness of intervention.     

The choice of maturity and additional covenants in debt contracts: A panel data approach

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis for the choice of contract terms in UK Eurobonds. Typically, the theory associates the choice of debt contract terms to firm and market characteristics, arguing that an adequate choice of these terms allows for the reduction of debt contracting costs. We use a panel data approach to examine the validity of extant predictions concerning the choice of maturity, call options, convertible options and protective covenants. Findings provide support to the agency prediction that debt contract terms function as alternative control mechanisms. Additionally, complementary role is found for the use of convertible and call options. Evidence that managers follow a maturity-matching rule, favour capital structure's flexibility in high growth scenarios and use protective covenants when firm's credibility is low corroborates further agency predictions.     

Financial factors in foreign direct investments: A dynamic analysis of international data

In contrast to existing empirical foreign direct investment (FDI) studies that examine the static effects of strategic or real economic variables, this paper focuses on the impacts of financial variables on FDI outflows for four largest industrial countries using dynamic time series methods. The results show that FDI outflows are non-stationary but have a long-run cointegrating relationship with real exchange rates. In addition, there are causal effects of exchange rates on direct investments in the short run. Multivariate cointegration analysis shows the significance of financial channels such as cost of capital and real wealth through which the real exchange rate effects operate. The effects of financial channels are comparable to those of the real wage rate channel. Overall, the present paper provides significant and methodologically consistent international evidence for dynamic interactions between FDIs and financial variables.     

The dynamics of U.S. REITs returns to uncertainty shocks: A proxy SVAR approach

This paper investigates the impact of uncertainty shocks on REITs returns over a monthly period from 1972:01 to 2015:12, and sub-samples from 1972:01 to 2009:06, and 2009:07 to 2015:12, to accommodate for the possible effects of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and unconventional monetary policy decisions. We use the recently-proposed variations in the price of gold, around events associated with unexpected changes in uncertainty as an instrument to identify uncertainty shocks in a proxy Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model. Moreover, to control for news-related effects associated with these events, uncertainty and news shocks are jointly identified based on a set-identified proxy SVAR, as recently suggested in the VAR literature. Our results show that the uncertainty shock generates a larger negative impact on REITs returns over the post-GFC period to the extent that it also outweighs the impact of the otherwise dominant news (productivity) shocks. In addition, the impulse response dynamics related to the recursively identified uncertainty shock, as is standard in the literature, resembles the effects of a news shock, and somewhat contrary to intuition suggests that the impact of the uncertainty shock on REITs returns were higher during the pre-GFC era.     

Applying free random variables to random matrix analysis of financial data. Part I: The Gaussian case

We apply the concept of free random variables to doubly correlated (Gaussian) Wishart random matrix models, appearing, for example, in a multivariate analysis of financial time series, and displaying both inter-asset cross-covariances and temporal auto-covariances. We give a comprehensive introduction to the rich financial reality behind such models. We explain in an elementary way the main techniques of free random variables calculus, with a view to promoting them in the quantitative finance community. We apply our findings to tackle several financially relevant problems, such as a universe of assets displaying exponentially decaying temporal covariances, or the exponentially weighted moving average, both with an arbitrary structure of cross-covariances.     

On the drivers of technical analysis profits in cryptocurrency markets: A Distributed Lag approach

The cryptocurrency literature on technical analysis has largely ignored drivers of technical analysis return adjusted by transaction costs (i.e., adjusted returns). To that end, we propose a Heterogeneous Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of Returns (HARDL-R) to examine the impact from EPU, VIX, and SP500 returns to adjusted returns. We provide evidence that these three drivers matter during bubble periods compared to non-bubble periods. When not differentiating bubble periods, we find that VIX is the only driver influencing the dynamics of adjusted returns from 2016 to 2021. These findings remain relatively stable after controlling for the volume of transactions.     

The term structure of banking crisis risk in the United States: A market data based compound option approach

We use a compound option-based structural credit risk model to estimate banking crisis risk for the United States based on market data on bank stocks on a daily frequency. We contribute to the literature by providing separate information on short-term, long-term and total crisis risk instead of a single-maturity risk measure usually inferred by Merton-type models or barrier models. We estimate the model by applying the Duan (1994) maximum-likelihood approach. A strongly increasing total crisis risk estimated from early July 2007 onwards is driven mainly by short-term crisis risk. Banks that defaulted or were overtaken during the crisis have a considerably higher crisis risk (especially higher long-term risk) than banks that survived the crisis.     

A response surface analysis of critical values for the lead-lag ratio with application to high frequency and non-synchronous financial data

Granger causality tests are being supplanted by new methods such as the Lead-Lag Ratio, particularly in finance where data arrives at random times and systematic sampling often produces spurious results. Existing approaches are insufficient; outside of block-sampling using a bootstrap, the lead-lag ratio has generally been assessed against a benchmark of 1 without regard for statistical significance. We use simulations to generate a response surface for the Lead-Lag Ratio. Our modelled critical values are applied to reassess the findings of three previous studies of lead/lag relations between financial return series with high frequency data. Our response surface method proves to be a convenient and efficient alternative to using a bootstrap.     

中国人口老龄化对人身保险市场发展的影响分析——基于省际面板数据的经验分析

本文基于我国30个省、市、自治区(除西藏外)1997年～2008年度面板数据,运用面板回归的计量分析方法,对中国老龄化背景下人身保险市场的发展情况进行了研究.中国人口老龄化的到来,为人身保险市场的发展既创造了机遇,也带来了挑战,本文经过反复的实验估计,认为老龄化对人身保险市场的推动作用要大于其阻碍作用,并且老龄化程度越...     

The Evolution of Standard Costing in the U.K. and U.S.: From Decision Making to Control

Decision making and control are two fundamental components of industrial management that are aided by accounting information. This article traces the evolution of standard costing in the U.K. and U.S. and describes how it has served these two purposes over time. At the start of the industrial revolution, standard costing, in the form of past actual costs, aided managers in make-or-buy, pricing, outsourcing and other routine and special decisions. In the late nineteenth century, as the mass production of homogeneous products became more common, predetermined, norm-based standard costs were promoted as the means to control operations and reduce waste. The use of predetermined costs was recommended by both academic and professional branches well into the twentieth century. Since the mid-1980s, norm-based standards have come under fire for not providing appropriate strategic signals in an era of global competition, continuous improvement and perpetual cost reduction.
This article compares the nature of standard costing practices in the British Industrial Revolution with those that evolved in the U.S. under scientific management. The enquiry is not limited to double-entry systems and, like Miller and Napier (1993), the domain is broadened to include other forms of cost-keeping practices. We utilize primary and secondary sources to argue that the environment and rationales for standard costs have changed fundamentally over time. It is speculated that in the future standard costing will be used far less for individual accountability or operational control, but will return to its decision-making roots in the form of long-run cost targets that benchmark the success of continuous cost-reduction efforts.     

A new approach to estimate concentrations of alcohol ethoxylate in rivers in Japan for screening-level risk assessment

Alcohol ethoxylate (AE) is a widely used household detergent that is ubiquitous in aquatic environments. To assess and manage the risk of AE, its environmental exposure concentrations must be evaluated in rivers nationwide; however, very few AE monitoring data are currently available. Furthermore, developing a rigorous exposure model that would cover rivers nationwide would require a great deal of time, human resources, and money. We developed a new approach to estimate AE concentrations in rivers throughout Japan for screening-level risk assessment. In this approach, five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅) data were used as a surrogate indicator of the AE concentration in river water. The Tama and Nikko Rivers were ranked according to their BOD₅ data, and the AE concentrations of the Nikko River were then estimated using the Standardized Hydrology-based Assessment tool for chemical Exposure Load (AIST-SHANEL) model. For each river, the concentrations of AE in its waters were projected based on that river’s reported BOD₅ values, its ranking, the approximation formula for AE and BOD₅, and estimated AE concentrations in water of the Nikko River from the model. The accuracy of the projected values was validated by comparing the projected AE concentrations in water from the Tama River with its monitoring data. There are various technical uncertainties associated with this approach; however, our results suggest that this new approach can be applied in screening-level exposure assessment of other chemical substances that have properties similar to AE.     

In defence of triangulation: A critical realist approach to mixed methods research in management accounting

The notion of triangulation constitutes a key component of mixed methods research but has been contested on ontological and epistemological grounds, especially where this entails integration of theories and/or methods rooted in different philosophical assumptions (or paradigms). Drawing on critical realism, this paper addresses two criticisms of the use of triangulation in mixed methods research straddling between the functionalist and interpretive paradigms, namely (1) its propensity to suppress variations in situated meanings and (2) its treatment of empirical observations as objectively verifiable rather than inherently theory-related. The modified notion of triangulation advanced in this paper counters these criticisms by re-conceptualizing it as firmly grounded in abductive reasoning. This provides a foundation for maintaining researchers’ sensitivity to context-specific variations in meanings in efforts to derive theory-related explanations. The possibilities of using such a modified notion of triangulation in management accounting research are illustrated through a review of two empirical studies straddling between the functionalist and interpretive paradigms.     

U.S. Airways merger: A strategic variance analysis of changes in post-merger performance

This case provides students the opportunity to apply strategic variance analysis (SVA) methodology in analyzing the performance changes realized in an airline merger. The U.S. Airways–America West merger provides an example of a complex, strategic action that simultaneously impacts firm size, unit pricing and costs, efficiency, and capacity for the combining airlines. This merger provides a rich example for the analysis since it combines U.S. Airways, a higher cost network airline that is geographically focused on the Eastern U.S., with America West, a low cost airline operating primarily along the Western U.S. The case includes merger and acquisition (M&A) theory discussing market power vs. efficiency motives for mergers and discusses the role of the U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission in evaluating M&As and their impact on markets. The case asks students to serve as consultants applying the SVA methodology to the past U.S. Airways–America West merger and provide conclusions.