商品期货合约定价问题研究

在终期效用最大化约束条件下,参与商品期货市场的标的商品的生产商、加工商和投机者等三类交易主体存在最优期货头寸持有量.通过联立证券、商品期货和现货三个市场,一个商品期货合约定价的两期静态模型得以确立.商品期货合约价格由资本市场系统风险溢价和非市场风险溢价两个部分构成,其绝对值与参与商品期货交易的投机者数量呈反比,投机者数量越多,商品期货合约价格的绝对值越小,表明商品期货交易风险越小,商品期货价格越平稳,价格发现功能越突出.     

From metaphoric litany text to scenarios—How to use metaphors in futures studies

Metaphor and metonymy belong to the key concepts of semiotics and general linguistics. As illustrations of scenarios, metaphors already have a long history in the futures studies, too. Metaphors were discussed in the CLA Reader 1.0¹ (Inayatullah ed., 2004) but the CLA Reader 2.0 edited by Inayatullah and Milojevic (2015) gives metaphors the central role in futures research² that they deserve. The article compares the approaches of semiotics and the CLA and suggests practical steps for the analysis of metaphoric futures oriented texts and their use in the construction of scenarios. Assuming that the litany is a text, metaphors may be present on all levels of the CLA: litany, systemic causes, worldview and myth/emotion. Metaphors are suitable even for the illustration of the CLA second level quantitative causal relations between variables. As an illustrating case study, we analyze a text that suggests the great future of the Northern Sea Route. The deconstruction of the litany results in two narratives or scenarios. They are constructed utilizing proverbs and other metaphoric sayings that get many citations on the Internet.     

论P2P网络借贷平台的客户权益保护

在P2P网络借贷模式下,借贷双方均可利用网络平台,实现借贷的认证、记账、清算和交割等流程。本文分析了P2P网络借贷的发展模式、主要客户对象与积极意义,从客户权益保护的角度入手,对我国P2P网络借贷平台的监管、相关法律的制定与完善、技术手段的应用等方面提出了建议。     

Futures and forward price differential and the effect of marking‐to‐market: Australian evidence

The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of marking‐to‐market of futures contracts on the price differential between futures and forward contracts based on the predictions of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1981) (CIR) model. Cox et al ., (1981) derive a series of propositions with respect to the relationship between futures and forward prices and a set of testable implications. These are tested empirically in this paper using Australian data from November 1991 to June 1997. The results provide evidence of the presence of significant futures and forward price differences, where the futures price is consistently below the forward price. Only partial support is found for the Cox et al ., (1981) propositions, implying that the effect of marking‐to‐market is not able to fully account for the price differential. Therefore, it is not possible to rule out the influence of other institutional factors on the futures‐forward price difference.     

Futures and forward price differential and the effect of marking‐to‐market: Australian evidence

The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of marking‐to‐market of futures contracts on the price differential between futures and forward contracts based on the predictions of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1981) (CIR) model. Cox et al ., (1981) derive a series of propositions with respect to the relationship between futures and forward prices and a set of testable implications. These are tested empirically in this paper using Australian data from November 1991 to June 1997. The results provide evidence of the presence of significant futures and forward price differences, where the futures price is consistently below the forward price. Only partial support is found for the Cox et al ., (1981) propositions, implying that the effect of marking‐to‐market is not able to fully account for the price differential. Therefore, it is not possible to rule out the influence of other institutional factors on the futures‐forward price difference.     

进一步规范和发展我国期货市场的思考

目前,我国期货市场逐步进入规范发展的新阶段,处于从量的扩张向质的提升转变的关键时期。本文结合我国期货市场实际,从加快制定《期货法》、构建全国统一的期货市场结算体系、统一商品期货套期保值规则、扩大期货市场的对外开放、推进期货公司业务创新、建设外汇期货市场、加强期货居间人管理等七个方面进行了深入分析,提出了进一步规范和发展我国期货市场的建议。     

全球商品期货市场的发展趋势展望

本文从商品期货市场发展的现状出发,阐述了中国商品期货市场所取得的成就以及尚处于初级阶段的现实,并深入剖析当前宏观经济形势对大宗商品期货市场的复杂影响,展望了未来国际及国内商品期货市场的发展。     

Using futures contracts for corporate hedging: The problem of expiry and a possible solution

Companies using futures contracts for hedging purposes need to roll over their contracts if the maturity of their exposure exceeds that of the futures contracts. This entails basis risk that can reduce significantly the effectiveness of the hedge. In this paper an alternative form of futures contract is proposed. the contract never expires and can be used for long-term hedging without the need for rolling-over into a new contract. the contract is shown to be equivalent to a portfolio of conventional futures contracts of differing maturities. Its price is determined by arbitrage against the underlying asset.     

A Comparative Study on Interday Market Volatility and Intraday Price Transmission of Nikkei/JGB Futures Markets between Japan and Singapore

Using both daily and intraday data, this paper investigates the impact of different futures trading mechanisms employed by TSE/OSE (automated system with Saitori matching) in Japan and SIMEX (open outcry) in Singapore. In order to examine the relative performance, we compare interday return volatility and intraday price transmission of Nikkei/JGB futures between Japan and Singapore. Regarding Nikkei futures, we find no significant difference in the performance measurements between OSE and SIMEX. We find both OSE and SIMEX have significant higher variances and negative first-order autocorrelation at the open than at the close. We also find Granger causality in both directions of intermarket price transmission between OSE and SIMEX. Regarding JGB futures, empirical results are different between TSE and SIMEX. JGB futures on SIMEX has a lower volatility at the open and first-order autocorrelation at the open is not significant. In addition, we find unidirectional lead from Japan to Singapore in JGB futures. In conclusion, since Japanese trading system does not reduce return volatility and causes delay in the open, the benefit of Saitori matching is questionable. On the other hand, we find weak evidence that the Japanese trading system is more efficient in price reporting. There is no conclusive evidence that either SIMEX open outcry or TSE/OSE Saitori matching dominates the price discovery process.     

Intraday Returns and the Frequency of Trading at the Ask on the Sydney Futures Exchange: A Research Note

This article documents and provides explanations for intraday patterns in returns for the Share Price Index (SPI) futures contract traded on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE). Consistent with overseas futures markets research, a positive and significant overnight return is documented. Unlike overseas futures markets, we find little evidence of an end of day price rise. Our evidence suggests that overnight returns for the SPI contract are largely driven by the way returns are typically measured, which ignores the fact that there is a significantly greater frequency of sellers at the market close and buyers at the start of the day. These patterns are consistent with hedging behaviour by futures traders with long positions in the underlying stock.     

Metaphor as fundamental to future discourse

In a time of information overload, increasing invasiveness, and questionable strategic coherence for individuals and collectivities, the question is whether metaphors have an especially important role to play. Thinking and engaging otherwise through metaphor therefore merits particular consideration. The argument focuses on the possibility of a meta-strategy by reframing the interweaving of themes through emerging implications of “meta” and “para”. This should enable forms of self-reflexive dialogue in “parameta space” to be envisaged.     

碳排放权期货市场流动性特征分析及启示

碳排放权期货品种已成为世界期货市场研究和发展的重要战略品种。根据碳排放权期货市场的发展现状,本文选取欧洲气候交易所的交易品种作为研究对象,分阶段、分品种对其交易品种的流动性特征进行了分析。通过总结碳排放权市场流动性特征变化,得出碳排放权期货市场的发展经验,为今后我国碳排放权期货市场的建立奠定基础。     

全球新兴市场黄金期货的崛起:现状、挑战与发展

随着黄金消费和投资需求近年来持续强劲,全球各主要新兴市场经济体陆续推出了黄金期货品种,其在全球黄金市场中的地位和重要性日益突出。在取得长足进步的同时,新兴市场黄金期货的发展依然面临诸多挑战,本文对此进行了研究分析,并提出了全球新兴市场黄金期货进一步发展的相关建议。     

股指期货推出前后股市反应的国际比较研究

本文运用香港、日本和韩国三个国际金融市场上股指期货推出前后现货市场的有关数据,从现货市场指数走势、现货市场波动性和成交量等方面对股指期货推出前后股市反应的变化进行比较研究。实证结果表明:股指期货推出前后每个国际金融市场股市受到的影响各有不同,很大程度上取决于股指期货推出前现货市场的态势。     

美国CFTC对期货交易的信息监管及其启示

美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)建立了完整的期货信息监管体系.该体系包括期货交易信息的报告与披露体系、监测体系以及交流与合作机制.信息监管模式的构筑已成为CFTC维护期货市场公平和提高市场效率的基本保障.与美国监管模式相比,我国期货交易的信息监管体制存在诸多不足.本研究以美国模式为参考,提出了我国期货交易信息监管体系的若干改进方向.