The reflective futures practitioner: Balancing salience,credibility and legitimacy in generating foresight knowledge with stakeholders

This paper explores how foresight researchers involved in environmental, nature and planning issues attempt to balance salience, credibility and legitimacy while generating knowledge in interaction with policy-makers and other social actors. Engaging stakeholders in foresight processes can increase the robustness of foresight knowledge, broaden the spectrum of issues addressed, and create ‘ownership’ of the process. While in foresight practices stakeholder participation becomes more and more popular to resort to as enabling factor for generating salient, legitimate and credible foresight knowledge, participation can also compromise these qualities. We analysed two foresight projects conducted at the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, one that developed future visions for Dutch nature policy and another that focused on future pathways for Dutch urban sustainable development policy. We illustrate that the dynamics of the research setting – changes in the socio-political context and the internal dynamics of the participatory efforts – complicated the balancing process. We conclude that one of the main challenges for futures practitioners is, therefore, to work within the dynamics of the research setting, and to position themselves strategically in this setting; by acting as ‘reflective futures practitioners’.     

Designing a foresight exercise for the future of rural communities in Romania

The paper aims to offer a good guideline for anyone who intends to do a futures or a foresight exercise for rural communities. The case presented is the one of the future of rural communities in Romania. The article begins with a brief presentation of the prevailing rural situation in Romania followed by a dialogue regarding suggestions for the possible objectives of a foresight exercise and the methods used (e.g. visioning, alternative futures, scenarios).     

The impact of foresight on environmental science and technology policy in the Netherlands

Globalisation, high tech development and environmental issues have made policy makers aware again of the possibilities of future studies for policy making. However, the lack of systematic knowledge about their impact is a major obstruction to a proper use of future studies. Especially since future studies no longer claim to predict the future, but are seen as a strategic tool for improving strategic interaction between key actors and for anticipatory policy making, insight in the dynamics of future studies is indispensable. In this article we review four future studies in the Netherlands with an eye on their methods and related impact on research in sustainable technology. Although in content the four studies were quite similar, they were complementary in linking research strategies and policy objectives.     

The moderating effects of hierarchy and control systems on the relationship between budgetary participation and performance

This study investigates the moderating effects that an organizational unit's hierarchical level and control systems have on the relationship between budgetary participation and performance. Using moderated regression analyses, we find a three-way interactive effect on performance between hierarchical levels, types of control systems, and budgetary participation. Further analyses reveal that at the high level of a hierarchy, budgetary participation has a positive relationship with performance and this relationship is stronger for organizational units that use output control than for those that use behavior control. By contrast, at the low level of a hierarchy, budgetary participation has a negative relationship with performance and this relationship is stronger for organizational units that use output control than for those that use behavior control.     

The future of food: countering globalisation and recolonisation of Indian agriculture

India, with a billion plus population, has put agriculture at the heart of its economy and food security at the centre of its agriculture policy. However, all the decisions and policies of a free and independent India which replaced colonial policies of land alienation, and concentration on ownership of land, super exploitation of the peasantry, the creation of famines are being undone through globalisation. These policies are bringing back “zamindari” and land monopolies of colonial times. The public distribution system (PDS) is being dismantled. Farmers are committing suicides, reports of starvation deaths have become common, foreboding a return of famines last experienced under British rule. Biodiversity is being rapidly eroded, and food, the very source of health and nutrition has become a major source of health hazards caused by toxic chemicals in factory farming and new genetically engineered foods and crops. This paper examines these developments in detail and proposes an agenda for creating an alternative future of food and highlights the current practices that are working towards this alternative.     

Extending foresight: The case for and nature of Foresight 2.0

This a programmatic paper with all of the frustrations thereof [1]. We point beyond the well-tilled ground of foresight as commonly practiced (called Foresight 1.0) to an emerging understanding of the work and character of foresight (called Foresight 2.0). By definition, as of today, this new territory is not well mapped, much less carefully worked-over. The question that drives this commitment to Foresight 2.0 was the heart of the 2007 Strathclyde Organizational Foresight Conference—Learning the Future Faster: “Can foresight as commonly practiced enable us to learn the future fast enough to meet and deal with the unique strategic challenges of the 21st Century?” The view taken is that Foresight 1.0 cannot meet this challenge; that it leads to small victories and major disasters. An explanation is offered: Foresight 1.0 was developed, and is still largely practiced, with the eyes and mind of management, whereas sustained success in the unique conditions of the 21st Century requires Foresight 2.0—seeing, thinking and acting with the eyes and mind of Leadership. This distinction is explained. Evidence is offered that futures research and foresight are slowly moving towards this new practice. The hope is expressed that, if we grasp the need for it, the nature of it and have explicit mental maps of the journey to it, we who are professional foresight researchers and practitioners will move faster and more effectively to develop Foresight 2.0. Several steps towards this end are outlined.     

The food problem and the evolution of international income levels

In most poor countries, large fractions of land, labor, and other productive resources are devoted to producing food for subsistence needs. We show that a model incorporating the “food problem” can provide new and useful insights into the evolution of international income levels. In particular, we find that the food problem can explain why some countries started to realize increases in per capita output more than 250 years later in history than others. We also show that the food problem has important implications for growth miracles and the speed at which a country converges to its balanced growth path.     

New development: Complexity and rhetoric in social impact investment

ABSTRACT

Existing public policy approaches to the social impact investment market take a linear view of both social innovation and economic markets. This article analyses the rhetoric of the market to explain both the persistence of a linear view and its inadequacy for dealing with the complexity of bridging social and financial goals. It then outlines complexity-sensitive theories of social innovation and economic markets and their import for social impact investing.     

The forthcoming Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution: Its impact on society and firms

The impact of the industrial and digital (information) revolutions has, undoubtedly, been substantial on practically all aspects of our society, life, firms and employment. Will the forthcoming AI revolution produce similar, far-reaching effects? By examining analogous inventions of the industrial, digital and AI revolutions, this article claims that the latter is on target and that it would bring extensive changes that will also affect all aspects of our society and life. In addition, its impact on firms and employment will be considerable, resulting in richly interconnected organizations with decision making based on the analysis and exploitation of “big” data and intensified, global competition among firms. People will be capable of buying goods and obtaining services from anywhere in the world using the Internet, and exploiting the unlimited, additional benefits that will open through the widespread usage of AI inventions. The paper concludes that significant competitive advantages will continue to accrue to those utilizing the Internet widely and willing to take entrepreneurial risks in order to turn innovative products/services into worldwide commercial success stories. The greatest challenge facing societies and firms would be utilizing the benefits of availing AI technologies, providing vast opportunities for both new products/services and immense productivity improvements while avoiding the dangers and disadvantages in terms of increased unemployment and greater wealth inequalities.     

Privatization,coordination and agency costs: The case for participation in Eastern Europe

In the paper, the interdependency between privatization and the growth of a new private sector is examined. While the dismantling of the omnipotent economic role of the state is a sine qua non for massive private investment, a vigorous private sector is needed to reduce unemployment and thus make further privatization possible. Since privatization is a lengthy process associated with a medium-term goal, while getting private investment started is important at the very beginning of the transition, this linkage constitutes a serious dilemma for the transformation. Multiple expectational equilibria arise and appropriate beliefs are crucial for the success of the reforms. Voucher schemes are shown to reduce agency costs of private investment and in this way may help to ensure coordination on the optimistic equilibrium.     

A methodology for the identification of strategic technological competences: An application in the sheet metal equipment industry

This paper proposes a technology foresight methodology based on the development of a complementary approach to the Delphi method that enables the identification of strategic technological competences, and presents its application in a sheet metal processing equipment manufacturer. The proposed methodology takes into consideration synergies between future events through a modified QFD matrix, and the application involved a panel of experts from industry and academia. The proposed methodology can benefit organizations by promoting a homogeneous perspective on existing relationships between external drivers and technology diffusion. This study contributes for the understanding of the links between foresight and technology strategy formulation. Further implementations in industrial environments should be performed to refine the methodology and increase the confidence level on the expected results that these findings can signify.     

The impact of state ownership on performance differences in privately-owned versus state-owned banks: An international comparison

This paper examines how government ownership and government involvement in a country’s banking system affect bank performance from 1989 through 2004. Our study uncovers an interesting pattern of changing performance differences between state-owned and privately-owned banks around the Asian financial crisis. We find that state-owned banks operated less profitably, held less core capital, and had greater credit risk than privately-owned banks prior to 2001, and the performance differences are more significant in those countries with greater government involvement and political corruption in the banking system. In addition, from 1997 to 2000, the 4-year period after the beginning of the Asian financial crisis, the deterioration in the cash flow returns, core capital, and credit quality of state-owned banks was significantly greater than that of privately-owned banks, especially for the countries that were hardest hit by the Asian crisis. However, state-owned banks closed the gap with privately-owned banks on cash flow returns, core capital, and nonperforming loans in the post-crisis period of 2001–2004. Our findings can best be explained by Shleifer and Vishny’s [Shleifer, A., Vishny, R.W., 1997. A survey of corporate governance. J. Finance 52, 737–783] corporate governance theory on state ownership of firms and Kane’s [Kane, E.J., 2000. Capital movement, banking insolvency, and silent runs in the Asian financial crisis. Pacific-Basin Finance J. 8, 153–175] life-cycle model of a regulation-induced banking crisis.     

The impact of state ownership on share price informativeness: The case of the Split Share Structure Reform in China

This study examines the impact of state ownership on share price informativeness using the unique setting of the Split Share Structure Reform in China. This reform abolishes the trading restriction on shares held mainly by state shareholders. In doing so, it renders state shareholders' wealth more sensitive to share price movements and decreases their conflict of interests with private shareholders. This change is expected to strengthen the corporate governance incentives of state shareholders and reduce the information asymmetry in Chinese listed firms. This prediction is confirmed through empirical evidence of increased share price informativeness among firms that are more sensitive to the impact of this reform, i.e. those with more state ownership or restricted shares. These findings imply that this reform benefits the information environment and minority shareholders in the Chinese stock market.     

The Rise and Rise of Public Private Partnerships: Challenges for Public Accountability

The increasing popularity of public private partnerships (PPPs) thrusts on to centre stage the inherent tension between accountability and transparency on the one hand, and efficiency and commerciality on the other. This paper explores a number of accountability issues that are exacerbated by a public private partnership structure. The organisational structure of a PPP, where much of the activity associated with the delivery of a public service is embedded in a private-sector entity, increases the likelihood that public scrutiny of decisions and actions is significantly inhibited     

我国数字贸易发展:现状、挑战与策略研究

借助互联网新技术的发展与应用推广,全球数字贸易得以快速发展,市场规模增速已经超过传统货物贸易及服务贸易,成为世界贸易发展新动能。我国数字技术和数字经济的高速发展使传统制造业与服务业融合加深,贸易服务性更强,因此我国数字贸易正面临着前所未有的发展机遇。但数字贸易作为数字经济的重要表现形式,其经营模式以及国际间的冲突摩擦,又致使其面临诸多发展挑战,由此提出从内部制度和外部环境两方面同时进行改进与完善,进而推动我国数字贸易发展。     

广西国库集中收付制度改革存在问题及建议

随着广西国库集中收付制度改革的进一步深化,改革涉及的相关部门不同程度存在一些亟待解决的问题,影响了改革的深入推进。本文对相关部门存在的问题进行了分析,并提出相应建议,以促进国库集中收付制度改革全面深化。     

Past and future of backcasting: The shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a methodological framework

This paper deals with the past, present and future of backcasting. After having reviewed the origin and developments since the 1970s, it is concluded that several varieties can be distinguished and that a shift has been made to broad stakeholder participation and towards a focus on realising follow-up and implementation. A methodological framework for participatory backcasting is proposed consisting of five stages and four groups of tools and methods that can be applied and are necessary in such a framework, while different type of goals are possible. The paper reports on two cases in which participatory backcasting was applied, the Novel Protein Foods project at the Sustainable Technology Programme in the Netherlands and the Nutrition case study of the Sustainable Households (SusHouse) project. The paper concludes that these have resulted in broad stakeholder involvement, sustainable future visions, analyses and construction of follow-up agendas, but that follow-up and impacts are quite different. A research agenda is proposed to compare and evaluate backcasting studies and their impacts after a couple of years, while the future of participatory backcasting is also briefly discussed.