The information content in implied idiosyncratic volatility and the cross‐section of stock returns: Evidence from the option markets

Current literature is inconclusive as to whether idiosyncratic risk influences future stock returns and the direction of the impact. Earlier studies are based on historical realized volatility. Implied volatilities from option prices represent the market's assessment of future risk and are likely a superior measure to historical realized volatility. Implied idiosyncratic volatilities on firms with traded options are used to examine the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and future returns. A strong positive link was found between implied idiosyncratic risk and future returns. After considering the impact of implied idiosyncratic volatility, historical realized idiosyncratic volatility is unimportant. This performance is strongly tied to small size and high book‐to‐market equity firms. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28: 1013–1039, 2008     

Is reversal of large stock‐price declines caused by overreaction or information asymmetry: Evidence from stock and option markets

The role of option markets is reexamined in the reversal process of stock prices following stock price declines of 10% or more. A matched pair of optionable and nonoptionable firms is randomly selected when their price declines by 10% or more on the same date. The authors examine the 1,443 and 1,018 matched pairs of New York Stock Exchange/American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations firms over the period from 1996 to 2004. It was found that the positive rebounds for nonoptionable firms are caused by an abnormal increase in bid–ask spread on and before the large price decline date. On the other hand, the bid–ask spreads for optionable firms decrease on and before the large price decline date. An abnormal increase in the open interest and volume in the option market on and before the large price decline date was also found. Overall, the results suggest that the stock‐price reversal neither is a result of overreaction nor can it be simply explained by the bid–ask bounce. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:348–376, 2009     

The economic significance of conditional skewness in index option markets

This study examines whether conditional skewness forecasts of the underlying asset returns can be used to trade profitably in the index options market. The results indicate that a more general skewness‐based option‐pricing model can generate better trading performance for strip and strap trades. The results show that conditional skewness model forecasts, when combined with forward‐looking option implied volatilities, can significantly improve the performance of skewness‐based trades but trading costs considerably weaken the profitability of index option strategies. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:378–406, 2010     

Asymmetric information in commodity futures markets: Theory and empirical evidence

This article examines the theoretical and empirical implications of asymmetric information in commodity futures markets. In particular, it formulates and tests a theoretical model that recognizes two distinct categories of traders: hedgers, who participate in both spot and futures markets, and speculators, who participate only in the futures market. Speculators are assumed to possess differential information about the realized values of selected random variables. Multiperiod futures market equilibria are derived under competitive conditions, and the ability of futures markets to forecast changes in equilibrium spot market prices are examined. The key variable is shown to be the randomness and informational asymmetry in the aggregate supply by participating hedgers in the spot market, whose absence turns out to be the major determinant of the revelation of informational asymmetry. Moreover, under the assumption of independence of error forecasts for prices and spot market supplies, it is shown that futures market equilibrium ends up with linear expressions for prices and futures contract volumes. These linear expressions are then used to develop empirically testable models. The main empirical implications in these models revolve around the role of the basis as a predictor of future spot price changes. The paper provides an empirical investigation of these implications, using three commodities traded on the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE). © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:803–825, 1998     

Competition and competitive groupings: An exploratory study in information technology markets

The focus of the research is upon the means by which firms can both create and sustain a competitive advantage. The paper addresses the relationship between shifting patterns of competitive rivalry and the emerging structure of a volatile, but growing branch of the Information Technology Industry. The concept and existence of competitive groups of firms is explored from three perspectives: those of the research analyst, the competitive suppliers and the customers of the service. The first perspective draws upon and applies previous work in the field of strategic groups, mobility barriers and company competences; the second perspective is operational, based upon the perception of the competitive environment by practising managers; the final perspective draws upon field research into customer organisation rooted in the notion that differentiation by suppliers will only be manifest in competitive advantage when it matches customers needs.

Different patterns of competition are identified and strategic management choices are highlighted in a product market undergoing turbulent development with the onset of telecommunication networks for the transmission of computerised data bases.     

The information content of implied volatility in agricultural commodity markets

In this article we compare the incremental information content of lagged implied volatility to GARCH models of conditional volatility for a collection of agricultural commodities traded on the New York Board of Trade. We also assess the relevance of the additional information provided by the implied volatility in a risk management framework. It is first shown that past squared returns only marginally improve the information content provided by the lagged implied volatility. Secondly, value‐at‐risk (VaR) models that rely exclusively on lagged implied volatility perform as well as VaR models where the conditional variance is modelled according to GARCH type processes. These results indicate that the implied volatility for options on futures contracts in agricultural commodity markets provides relevant volatility information that can be used as an input to VaR models. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:441–454, 2003     

Transmission and production of information in imperfectly competitive financial markets

This paper studies the problem of information sharing among insiders in a financial market with traders who are not price takers, but act strategically. The different types of associations are ranked from the viewpoint of insiders' profits. As a byproduct, I also consider the decision problem faced by a monopolistic producer of information who is able to control the quality of the information he sells.     

Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets

This paper examines the co-movement dynamics of ten emerging and four frontier government bond markets with the US market and the impact of macroeconomic factors and global bond market uncertainty on the time-varying co-movement. We find that macroeconomic factors play important role in explaining time variations in the bond return co-movement. Specifically, domestic macroeconomic factors have higher relative importance than global factors, with domestic monetary policy and domestic inflationary environment identified as the most influential factors. The global bond market uncertainty, based on an implied volatility measure, has explanatory power in driving co-movement dynamics in emerging and frontier bond markets.     

Entering Eastern European markets : Lessons from Kmart

Kmart completed its purchase of 13 stores in the Czech Republic and Slovakia in May/June 1992. Using interviews conducted in June 1993 with directors of Kmart-Czech Republic and Slovakia and a vice director of its major Prague competitor, Kotva, this paper analyzes the strategies Kmart is using to position itself in Eastern Europe for both retail sales and product acquisition and distribution. Four lessons to be learned from Kmart were identified: (1) internationalize what you do well; (2) know your customers by listening to them and adapting to their needs; (3) be flexible and change if a strategy does not work; and (4) balance short-and long-term gains.     

Improving volatility prediction and option valuation using VIX information: A volatility spillover GARCH model

We develop a new generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model that accounts for the information spillover between two markets. This model is used to detect the usefulness of the CBOE volatility index (VIX) for improving the performance of volatility forecasting and option pricing. We find the significant ability of VIX to predict stock volatility both in-sample and out-of-sample. VIX information also helps to greatly reduce the option pricing error. The proposed volatility spillover GARCH model performs better than the related approaches proposed by Kanniainen et al. (2014, J Bank Finance, 43, pp. 200-211) and P. Christoffersen et al. (2014, J Financ Quant Anal, 49, pp. 663–697).     

The effect of multiple listings on the bid–ask spread in option markets: The case of Montreal Exchange

In this article, we examine the effect of multiple listings of options on their bid–ask spread, by comparing options contracts listed only on the Montreal Exchange with those interlisted on that exchange and on a U.S. exchange as well. Using a statistical procedure adapted to panel data and two models for the determination of the bid–ask spread, we find that the bid–ask spreads of Montreal options interlisted in U.S. markets are narrower than those of non‐interlisted options. That advantage tends to disappear, however, with an increase in option price and to increase with its volatility, but is not affected by the volume of transactions in the option market. The analysis also shows that interlisting may result in time lags in the convergence of quotes between Montreal and the U.S. markets. Moreover, our evidence shows that with interlisting, volume shifts to the option market where trading in the underlying security is concentrated, irrespective of the location where the option was first introduced. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:939–957, 2002     

Recovering from bond market distress: Good luck and good policy

This paper focuses on the resolution of bond market crises. Episodes of bond market distress are identified using secondary market sovereign bond spreads. Duration models are used to assess the role of the global environment, domestic policy, IMF programs and political events in explaining the length of distress episodes. We find a rich set of interactions between favourable external conditions, sound macroeconomic policies and the presence of an IMF program which contribute to shorter bond market crises.     

Volatility,global information,and market conditions: a study in futures markets

This study examined the behavior of return volatility in relation to the timing of information flow under different market conditions influenced by trading volume and market depth. We emphasized information flow during trading and nontrading periods that may represent domestic and offshore information in the global trading of currencies. Test results show that volatility was negatively related to market depth; that is, deeper markets had relatively less return volatility. Additionally, the effect that market depth had on volatility was superseded by information within trading volume. Test results focusing on the timing of information flow reveal that in low‐volume markets, the volatility of nontrading‐period returns exceeded the volatility of trading‐period returns. However, when trading volume was high, this pattern was reversed and conformed to the observations of earlier articles. Our findings proved to be robust across time, different currency markets, and different measures of return volatility. We also observed a trend toward greater integration between foreign and U.S. financial markets; the U.S. market increasingly emphasized information from nontrading periods to supplement information arriving during trading periods. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:173–196, 2001     

Digital distribution and the prohibition of resale markets for information goods

An existing theoretical literature finds that frictionless resale markets cannot reduce profits of monopolist producers of perfectly durable goods. This paper starts by presenting logical arguments suggesting this finding does not hold for goods consumers tire of with use, implying the impact of resale is an empirical question. The empirical impact is then estimated in the market for video games, one of many markets in which producers may soon legally prevent resale by distributing their products digitally as downloads or streamed rentals. Estimation proceeds in two steps. First, demand parameters are estimated using a dynamic discrete choice model in a market with allowed resale, using data on new sales and used trade-ins. Then, using these parameter estimates, prices, profits, and consumer welfare are simulated under counterfactual environments. When resale is allowed, firms are unable to prevent their goods from selling for low prices in later periods. The ability to do so by restricting resale outright yields significant profit increases. Renting, however, does not raise profits as much due to a revenue extraction problem.     

The impact of customer-generated evaluation information on sales in online platform-based markets

As the online platform-based market expands, research into the impact of consumer-accessible information in this market on performance has received significant attention in recent years. In this study, we focus on customer-generated evaluation information (CGEI). The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the effect of CGEI—both quantitative (i.e., star rating, star rating volume) and qualitative (i.e., customer review content) aspects—on actual sales in an online platform-based market. We analyze the regression of quantitative GCEI on sales and for qualitative GCEI we apply the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic modeling. We discover that star ratings do not always lead to increased sales, implying that star ratings and sales have an inverted U-shaped relationship. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that star rating volume has a positive effect on sales. We reveal that the review contents of product quality and added value have a positive effect on sales, whereas those of seller service have no effect on sales. This study provides some insight into how customer-generated information can increase actual sales in online platform-based markets.