Images of economic conditions in West Germany

With data from a December 1982 survey determinants of attitudes on general and personal economic conditions in West Germany are investigated. Such attitudes are differentiated into perceptions, evaluations, and expectations. Objective private living conditions, social background variables, regional economic context, and partisan affiliations are introduced as explanatory variables. Stepwise regression analysis is applied to estimate recursive models for endogenous variables. Apart from sizeable interrelations among components of individuals' images of economic conditions the findings indicate that evaluations and expectations of the private economic situation are strongly affected by social background and personal living conditions, whereas partisan sympathies mainly influence expectations of future general economic development.     

Crime,inequality and unemployment in England and Wales

A model of crime is developed based on principles from the existing literature with some original insight. The implications of the model are that income inequality and unemployment are important explanatory variables for crimes motivated by economic gain, but do not offer much explanatory power for other types of crime. Panel data of UK regions over the years from 2002 to 2007 are then used to test these predictions. The empirical results strongly support the hypothesis that crime is an economic phenomenon.     

事业满意感在我国销售员工离职倾向决定中的调节效应研究

用层级回归方法分析了员工离职倾向的主要结构化变量和环境变量,检验了事业满意感在员工离职倾向决定过程中的调节效应。主要结论包括 :第一,报酬满意感、晋升机会、工作自主性和上级支持与其它工作机会对员工的离职倾向具有显著的解释能力;第二,事业满意感与工作自主性之间的交互作用以及事业满意感与上级支持之间的交互作用对员工离职倾向有显著的解释作用。为员工离职倾向决定的权变主义观点提供了证据。讨论了研究结果的管理学含义。     

Women's Economic Participation on the Eve of Industrialization: Bizkaia,Spain, 1825

This contribution discusses, from the regional perspective of Bizkaia, Spain, adult women's labor force participation prior to industrialization, including the impact of economic, social, and demographic variables, such as family life cycle, marriage, and the presence of minor children in the household. Women's high level of participation – 68.6 percent for the entire province – varies considerably, depending on local economic conditions. Job opportunities for women and socioeconomic characteristics of households act as first-order explanatory factors. Women in proto-industrial economies, like Bizkaia's, which combined the extraction, transport, and marketing of iron with agriculture and fishing, show greater participation. Demand for women's labor was linked to jobs without recognized qualifications. The association of women's participation with demographic variables is not manifest in the historical data. The results show that supply factors do not explain the variance in women's activity.     

Industrial location and inter-industry linkages

This study provides a tentative explanation of the spatial distribution of economic activity in Canada, with a focus upon the role of inter-industry linkages. Location of economic activity for each of one hundred and nine three-digit S.I.C. manufacturing industries is explained by use of a “tobit” model incorporating backward and forward linkage variables. The two sets of linkage variables in each tobit equation were reduced by extraction of one principal component from each set, using the matrix of cosines of the variables. A set of control variables completes the set of explanatory variables. The overall explanatory power of our equations was remarkably high and the role of inter-industry linkages is unmistakable.     

Sex Differences in Labour Turnover in the Australian Public Service*

This paper reports the use of a large data set of Australian government employees in an analysis of the influence of sex on voluntary labour turnover. Estimates derived from a conventional quit model are used to obtain ceteris paribus sex specific quit probabilities. These suggest that once other relevant variables are held constant, the expected quit differences between men and single women are significantly reduced. The analysis indicates clearly that the use of aggregate statistics may substantially exaggerate turnover differences attributable to sex.     

Testing the exogeneity of economic time series: an application of innovation accounting

This paper proposes and presents an testable sufficient condition for testing the exogeneity of economic time series using Sims' (1980a) innovation accounting within an unconstrained vector autoregressive model. It is demonstrated that if each explanatory variable of a model is sequentially placed in the last position of the ordering of variables during orthogonalization, then strict exogeneity of the dependent variable with respect to each explanatory variable can be tested without any a priorirestrictions. The test is not biased by conditional correlations of other variables included in the model. The empirical demonstration within the VAR framework is based on a set of variables obtained by solving a macroeconomic model.     

On Liu estimators for the logit regression model

This paper introduces a shrinkage estimator for the logit model which is a generalization of the estimator proposed by Liu (1993) for the linear regression. This new estimation method is suggested since the mean squared error (MSE) of the commonly used maximum likelihood (ML) method becomes inflated when the explanatory variables of the regression model are highly correlated. Using MSE, the optimal value of the shrinkage parameter is derived and some methods of estimating it are proposed. It is shown by means of Monte Carlo simulations that the estimated MSE and mean absolute error (MAE) are lower for the proposed Liu estimator than those of the ML in the presence of multicollinearity. Finally the benefit of the Lie estimator is shown in an empirical application where different economic factors are used to explain the probability that municipalities have net increase of inhabitants.     

FDI、对外贸易与经济增长的协整性研究——以山东省为例

关于利用外资、进出口贸易与经济增长关系的研究一直以来备受关注,但近年来的研究大多致力于两者间关系的独立性研究,其结果往往会使得理论与实证研究的解释力受到影响。对于多个同阶序列变量之间是否存在长期稳定的均衡关系的研究,协整理论具有重要的应用,其既可充分利用信息资源,还有效避免了“伪回归”问题。另外鉴于不同区域问经济发展模式、发展水平的差异性,各经济要素之间的关系也不尽相同,本文采用山东省1984～2007年间24年的统计数据,对该省的外商直接投资、进出口贸易与经济增长之间的相互关系进行了协整性检验和误差修正模型分析,总结得到有关结论：山东省利用外资、进出口贸易与其经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,但具有区别于其他地区的自身特点。最后,针对山东经济的协调发展提出了若干政策建议。     

THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF FAMILY INCOME IN U.S. SMSAs, 1959*

An attempt is made in this paper to identify and quantify the relative influence of several economic, social, and demographic factors on variations in the size distribution of family incomes in 208 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) in the United States in 1959. Using a simple ordinary least squares model with Gini's concentration ratio (R) as the proxy for family income inequality, the estimating equations explain up to 89 percent of the SMSA-to-SMSA variation. The “best” explanatory variables are those having to do with size of nonwhite population, occupational structure, and median years of education. City size and region—which are represented by dummy variables—are also revealed as playing an important role, both on their own and in conjunction with other of the independent variables.     

Growth,convergence and public investment. A Bayesian model averaging approach

The aim of this study is twofold. First, the determinants of economic growth are studied among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). Among others, various types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors are included. Also, it is analysed whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in recent decades. The second objective is to obtain cross-section and panel data parameter estimates that are robust to model specification. For this purpose, a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach is used. Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimate is given by the posterior probability of each model.     

Trade union growth and decline in the Federal Republic of Germany

The paper constructs a time-series model of trade union growth and decline in the Federal Republic of Germany (1955–1984) by testing and combining ten economic and socio-political hypotheses prevalent in the German and international trade union literature. It employs wages, prices, unemployment, strikes, and the proportion of foreigners in the workforce as explanatory variables. The model proves to be satisfactory when judged in terms of usual statistical criteria such as overall goodness of fit and signs, magnitudes, and significance of the estimated regression coefficients as well as in terms of its structural stability, data sensitivity, and predictive ability.     

影响FDI在安徽分布的因素分析——基于区位选择模型

通过对已有FD I区域分布研究成果的梳理,选择11个指标作为FD I在安徽区域分布影响因素的解释变量,采用区位选择模型方法,进行逐步回归分析,最终剔除8个,认为影响安徽省FD I分布的因素主要有3个,即FD I的聚集效应、基础设施建设和各市社会消费品零售总额。     

Labour market characteristics and profitability: An econometric analysis of Hugarian exporting firms, 1986-951

This paper follows through an aspect of microeconomic restructuring in Hungary during the transition period. This restructuring brought about substantial changes in the behaviour of all economic agents. Our study combines labour market and corporate financial information to explore the effect of the quality of labour employed on the profitability of the firm. The quality of labour is measured as that portion of wage differentials that cannot be explained by a standard human capital model. The profitability of Hungarian exporting firms can be explained by economic factors during transition. In addition the quality of labour, export share, wage and bank costs, payables, receivables, foreign ownership, inventories, amortization and equity are all significant explanatory variables.     

Learning towards system innovation: Evaluating a systemic instrument

In this paper we develop an analytical framework for studying learning processes in the context of efforts to bring about system innovation by building new networks of actors who are willing to work on a change towards sustainable development. We then use it to evaluate two specific intervention programmes carried out by a self-proclaimed ‘system instrument’. The framework integrates elements from the Innovation Systems approach with a social learning perspective. The integrated model proposes essentially that these kinds of systemic instruments can serve to enhance conditions for social learning and that such processes may result in learning effects that contribute to system innovation by combating system imperfections. The empirical findings confirm the assumption that differences in learning can be explained by the existence or absence of conditions for learning. Similarly, the existence or creation of conducive conditions could be linked to the nature and quality of the interventions of the systemic instrument. We conclude that the investigated part of the hypothesised model has not been refuted and seems to have explanatory power. At the same time we propose that further research is needed among others on the relation between learning, challenging system imperfections and system innovation.     

高学历新员工多路径离职理论的实证研究

为探析中国高学历的新员工主动离职率高的原因,本文在阅读和评述了国内外大量离职模型后,选取Lee等员工主动离职多路径演进模型为研究基础,以浙江大学毕业1年内并且有过离职经历的毕业生作为研究对象,对该模型在中国背景下进行了实证检验。结果表明该模型在中国背景下同样适用;工作单位的性质对决策路径的选择有显著影响;不同路径展开速度不同,但工作满意度并无显著差异。并提出了对管理者有助益的建议。     

Military Spending, Government Disarray, and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis

Recent years have seen a spate of empirical studies that have used cross-country regressions to examine a variety of possible determinants of long-term economic growth. The present study considers an additional, largely overlooked, explanatory variable: military spending. Consistent with Thompson’s (1974) hypothesis that enhanced national defense fosters economic growth by increasing the security of property rights, the military expenditures share of GDP is found to have a statistically significant positive impact on the growth rate of per capita GDP. This result is obtained for two alternative model specifications, a Barro-regression and a LISREL variant of that regression. The LISREL variant is motivated by Sala-i-Martin’s (1994) claim that the impact of government economic policies jointly, rather than extant government policies individually and separately, is "the phenomenon that really matters" for long-term economic growth.     

股票市场发展与经济增长——从流动性的视角

基于前人的重要结论,从流动性的角度,将流动性分为成交量、换手率两个方面。通过向量自回归（VAR）建立模型进行进一步的研究,得出股票交易成交量与经济增长的长期均衡关系,并通过VECM模型与Granger因果关系检验对所建立的模型进行进一步验证。研究结果显示,股票市场的流动性与经济增长存在显著的关系。进一步研究换手率对股票流动性的影响可得出的结论是,股票市场的流动性与经济增长存在长期的均衡关系,并且流动性中,成交额与经济增长存在正向关系,而换手率与经济增长存在负向关系,两者都是通过影响股票市场的总市值来进一步影响经济增长的。     

Economic inefficiency in a revenue setting: the Norwegian whitefish fishery

The main focus in the inefficiency literature is on suboptimal input use and how this causes increased costs, due to technical and allocative inefficiency. Production or cost functions are then typically used to describe the underlying technology of the firm. The possible revenue loss, due to lower than maximum production levels and suboptimal output mix, has received substantially less attention. By using a revenue function to measure inefficiency, the focus, model and estimation technique presented in this article differ from those of previous studies. A shadow revenue model is used to decompose revenue inefficiency into its technical and allocative components, in which the allocative inefficiency is due to a suboptimal output mix. The approach is illustrated using panel data of Norwegian whitefish trawlers. The results reveal large inefficiencies, with respect to output levels as well as output mix, indicating that this can be an important part of the picture when investigating economic inefficiency. To identify the determinants of revenue inefficiency, we conduct a second-step regression, in which technical and allocative inefficiency is regressed upon a set of explanatory variables. The inefficiencies are partly explained by the management system and fleet structure.     

中国财产保险需求影响因素的实证研究

运用中国1980-2009年的相关数据,引入六个解释变量,采用逐步回归方法,对中国财产保险需求的影响因素进行了实证分析,结果表明:与人寿保险需求截然不同,经济增长、人均收入、风险意识对财产保险需求未发现有显著影响;而固定资产投资、汽车拥有量和货物运输量对财产保险需求有着显著的推动作用.实证结果进一步解释了财产保险市场结构严重失衡的状况.