Sulfur Allowance Trading and the Regional Clean Air Incentives Market: A Comparative Design Analysis of two Major Cap-and-Trade Permit Programs?

This paper investigates in detail the design parameters of the two mostprominent US cap-and-trade permit program – the US EPA Sulfur AllowanceTrading Program and the South Californian Regional Clean Air IncentivesMarket (RECLAIM). In contrast to expectations the two programs turn out to be rather different in several important design parameter choices.Common elements emerge primarily in the existence of an ambitious, quantifiedenvironmental target, mandatory use of stringent emission monitoring methodsand stiff penalties for non-compliance, coexisting command-and-controlregulations, the creation of a competitive permit market structure, andsome distributional concessions in the initial permit allocation. Generalizing from these common features we find that provisions to assurepolitical acceptance, functional interdependencies and overlapping regulation are the most important influences on the design of applied cap-and-trade permit programs.     

Is Religion a Determinant of Financial Development?

International Advances in Economic Research - Studies on the determinants of financial development have been silent on the role of religion. Growing evidence in the literature about how financial...     

Foreign Direct Investment and the External Wealth of Nations: How Important Is Valuation?

While the balance sheet approach has increased the focus on position data, differences in valuation practices for foreign direct investment (FDI) make cross‐country comparisons difficult. To enhance comparability, the IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, sixth edition, which some countries have already implemented and others will implement in the coming years, recommends seven methods for valuation of unlisted FDI. This paper demonstrates that both the valuation method and simple differences in estimation techniques can fundamentally change a country's financial balance sheet. Using Denmark as an illustration, unlisted FDI equity liabilities vary from 22 to 156 percent of GDP when applying different estimation techniques, but just one valuation method, price to earnings. These measurement uncertainties can lead to important misunderstandings and affect policy recommendations, thus pointing to the need for further international harmonization. While the results are presented in an FDI context, the uncertainties also apply to other macroeconomic datasets, including national accounts statistics.     

Fire‐sale FDI? The Impact of Financial Crises on Foreign Direct Investment

We analyze the evolution of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to developing and emerging countries around financial crises. We empirically examine the Fire‐Sale FDI hypothesis and describe the pattern of FDI inflows surrounding financial crises. We also add a more granular detail about the types of financial crises and their potentially differential effects on FDI. We distinguish between mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and greenfield investment, as well as between horizontal (tariff jumping) and vertical (integrating production stages) FDI. We find that financial crises have a strong negative effect on inward FDI in our sample. Crises are also shown to reduce the value of horizontal and vertical FDI. We do not find empirical evidence of fire‐sale FDI; on the contrary, financial crises are shown to affect FDI flows and M&A activity negatively.     

Fund Portfolio Holdings and Affiliated Analyst's Objectivity: Do Equity and Employment Relationship Matter?

The author investigates how the equity relationship between fund company and brokerage firm as well as employment relationship between analyst and brokerage firm affect affiliated fund stock portfolio holding and the affiliated analyst's objectivity. By using the specific data of such equity and employment relationship, the author finds that equity and employment relationship do matter in fund portfolio holdings and analyst objectivity. Specifically, analysts tend to release more optimal ratings on stocks that have been hold by the funds, and the funds tend to significantly reduce the stocks in their portfolio once the analysts have announced high ratings on the stocks. Moreover, the analysts in employment relationships with majority shareholders of funds and with a low reputation reveal worse objectivity. In addition, from the point of abnormal return, analysts in employment relationships with majority shareholders of funds and with a low reputation damage the interests of common investors.     

Is Financial Fragility a Matter of Illiquidity? An Appraisal for Italian Households

We investigate household financial fragility in Italy, providing three main contributions. First, we propose a novel characterization of financial fragility that is not necessarily linked to indebtedness, distinguishes between expected and unexpected expenses, takes portfolio composition into account, and is free of subjectivity bias. Second, we use it to assess the importance of household portfolio composition for determining the difficulties related to coping with unexpected expenditures, besides socio‐economic and demographic factors. Third, we test its ability to forecast future conditions of financial distress. The empirical analysis is based on the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth. The results highlight the relevance of portfolio choices as determinants of financial distress, that is, they provide evidence that homeownership increases the likelihood of financial fragility while the presence of a mortgage decreases it. Moreover our measure is shown to act as an early warning indicator of distress.     

The Reform of Planning and Investment System

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The Analysis and Modification of Opportunity Cost of Investment

We think we should use basic return rate of industry to measure the opportunity cost of capital and use the rule of Maximum NPV （Net Present Value） to modify the wrong solution in the book.     

Financial deepening and income inequality: Is there any financial Kuznets curve in China? The political economy analysis

The interconnectedness of financial deepening and income inequality has been a highly controversial discussion which has not been concluded despite many empirical and theoretical studies up to date. One of the basic building blocks for many research designs is the reliance upon the Kuznets inverted U-shaped curve which postulates that in the first phase of economic growth income inequality increases, peaks and then decreases to a tolerable level in the later phase after a certain income level had been attained. The role of financial deepening in financing economic growth is an indispensable and necessary condition enabling us to easily draw an analogy between financial deepening and income inequality in a financial version of the Kuznets curve. In spite of 30 years of economic and financial reforms in China, which represents a fairly young history of economic growth and development, there are many indicators that Chinese experience significantly deviates from the presupposed inverted U-shaped curve trajectory and its final equalizing effect. This paper relies on financial deepening data measured by monetary aggregate M2/GDP and domestic banking credit/GDP ratios in its claim that they significantly correlate with rising income inequality. The author’s intention consists not in claiming that financial deepening per se causes income inequality, but provides a political economy analysis of the specific institutional and power configuration which leads to their positive relationship. This configuration is determined by the prevailing banking model, the hukou system, financial repression and the decentralized authoritarian system. On the other hand, the absence of inequality-narrowing institutitons further aggravate the problem. All the aforementioned factors are geared at avoiding mechanical and spurious claims that financial deepening increases or decreases income inequality across countries. A historical institutionalism approach to explain China’s path related to the Kuznets curve prediction shows the central validity of open and inclusive institutions in generating inequality-narrowing benefits of financial deepening.     

ICT Investment and Economic Growth in the 1990s: Is the United States a Unique Case?: A Comparative Study of Nine OECD Countries

This paper compares the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) capital accumulation on output growth in Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Over the past two decades, ICT contributed between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage point per year to economic growth, depending on the country. During the second half of the 1990s, this contribution rose to 0.3 to 0.9 percentage point per year. Despite differences between countries, the United States has not been alone in benefiting from the positive effects of ICT capital investment on economic growth nor was the United States the sole country to experience an acceleration of these effects. ICT diffusion and ICT usage play a key role and depend on the right framework conditions, not necessarily on the existence of a large ICT-producing sector.     

ACE versus CBIT: Which is Better for Investment and Welfare?

This article analyses the switch to an Allowance for CorporateEquity (ACE) or to a Comprehensive Business Income Tax (CBIT)type of tax system starting from the present German tax system.We show that in case an ACE type of reform is financed by anincrease in the VAT and not in the profit tax, it might be preferredto a CBIT even in the context of an open economy. Moreover,the required exogenous increase in the profit tax rate cannotensure revenue neutrality on its own due to the negative generalequilibrium effects it triggers on the whole economy. For aCBIT, the exogenous reduction in the tax rates on corporateand non-corporate profits leads to better results than whenwe allow for an endogenous change in the VAT. The best resultsarise when the CBIT is accompanied by a provision for immediatewrite-off and a lower profit tax or when the ACE with no additionalcapital gains taxation on household side is financed by an increasein the VAT. (JEL-Classification: C68, D58, D92, E62, H25.)     

Financial development and long-run growth: is the cross-sectional evidence robust?

In a seminal paper, Levine, Loayza and Beck (LLB, 2000) provide cross-sectional evidence showing that financial development has positive average impact on long-run growth, using a sample of 71 countries. We argue that the evidence is sensitive to the presence of outliers.     

Monetary and Financial Integration in the EMU: Push or Pull?

This paper examines the channels through which monetary union increased financial integration, using panel data on bilateral international commercial bank claims from 1998–2006. I decompose the increase in claims into three channels: a "borrower effect," as a country's EMU membership may leave its borrowers more creditworthy in the eyes of foreign lenders; a "creditor effect," as membership in a monetary union may increase the attractiveness of a nation's commercial banks as intermediaries, perhaps through increased scale economies or through an improved regulatory environment after the advent of monetary union; and a "pairwise effect," as joint membership in a monetary union increases the quality of intermediation between borrowers and creditors when both are in the union. Isolating these three channels through a series of difference-in-differences specifications, I find that the pairwise effect is the primary source of increased financial integration. This result is robust to a number of sensitivity exercises.     

Asset Prices and the Financial Crisis of 2007–09: An Overview of Theories and Policies

The financial crisis of 2007–09 has led to a rethinking of the role of monetary and financial regulatory policy. It has also called into question the benefits of financial innovation and monetary policy that focuses solely on inflation and the output gap. This paper discusses financial instabilities in general, the recent financial crisis as well as the appropriate role of monetary and financial regulatory policy in dealing with asset bubbles. The paper concludes by evaluating appropriate policies to reduce the economic impact of future financial crises.     

Asset Prices and the Financial Crisis of 2007–09: An Overview of Theories and Policies

The financial crisis of 2007–09 has led to a rethinking of the role of monetary and financial regulatory policy. It has also called into question the benefits of financial innovation and monetary policy that focuses solely on inflation and the output gap. This paper discusses financial instabilities in general, the recent financial crisis as well as the appropriate role of monetary and financial regulatory policy in dealing with asset bubbles. The paper concludes by evaluating appropriate policies to reduce the economic impact of future financial crises.     

Is China Living a Minsky Moment? Between the “Lender of Last Resort” and the Chinese Shadow Financial System

After Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008, the Central Bank of China (PBOC) created a big 1.8 trillion dollars package to boost the Chinese economy. It was a necessary key measure not only to prop up the economy, but also to try to preserve the two-digit growth of the GDP that existed before the Great Recession. The financial instability of international financial circuits made necessary the involvement of the central bank. Ten years later, China’s debt explosion went up during the financial crisis, from six to twenty-eight trillion dollars between 2007 and 2016. In other words, it went up from 148 to 260 percent of GDP during the same period. The goal of this article is to analyze whether China is living a “Minsky moment” or not, and what its implications are for international financial markets.     

Gender Equality and Economic Growth: Is it Equality of Opportunity or Equality of Outcomes?

This article explores the impact of gender equality on economic growth. In particular, we focus on the multidimensional nature of gender equality with the object of identifying the relative salience of different aspects of equality. Using exploratory factor analysis on five measures of gender equality, we identify two distinct dimensions: equality of economic opportunities and equality in economic and political outcomes. Regression analysis conducted on an unbalanced panel of 101 countries taken over nonoverlapping five-year periods from 1990 to 2000 reveals that a standard deviation improvement in equality in economic opportunity increases growth by 1.3 percentage points and a corresponding improvement in participatory equality improves growth by an average of about 1.2 percentage points. However, this impact is contingent on a country's stage of development: while developing economies experience significant improvements in growth from greater equality in opportunity, developed societies see significant improvements resulting from greater equality in outcomes.     

Foreign Aid,Incentives and Efficiency: Can Foreign Aid Lead to the Efficient Level of Investment?

This paper develops a two‐period model in which the recipient faces borrowing constraint and the donor is a Stackelberg follower to address two important policy questions: (i) whether foreign aid can lead to the efficient level of capital investment in the recipient country and (ii) how does the form (e.g. budgetary transfers, capital transfer) and the timing of aid affect the recipient's financial savings and capital investment. It finds that the disincentive effect of the capital transfer on the capital investment by the recipient is larger than the budgetary transfers. It makes financial savings more attractive relative to the capital investment for the recipient. In the absence of capital transfer, the multi‐period budgetary transfers not only lead to the efficient level of capital investment by the recipient, but also achieve the same allocation as under commitment. The capital transfer can lead to the efficient level of capital investment, but in this case, it completely crowds out the recipient's own capital investment.