Economic costs and impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise and storm surge in Canadian coastal provinces: a CGE approach

We estimated the economic costs and impacts of future sea-level rise (SLR) and storm surge due to climate change in Canada’s coastal provinces using regional, dynamic computable general equilibrium models that track provincial welfare, GDP, trade, prices and inputs over the 2009–2054 period. We also assessed the economic costs of coastal adaptation investments, to determine whether such investments can be justified on economic grounds. Results indicated that SLR and storm surge could cost Canada in the range of $4.6–$25.5 billion in present value welfare, and between $53.7 and $108.7 billion in present value GDP. We found significant variation in costs and impacts across coastal provinces, with some provinces such as Newfoundland and Labrador experiencing only marginal costs/impacts, and others such as British Columbia experiencing costs as high as $21 billion in welfare over the period. Coastal adaptation investments were supported on economics grounds. Overall, this study provides the first (and preliminary) provincial economic impact estimates of climate-induced SLR and storm surge, as well as adaptation investments, in Canada. Additional research is needed to refine the analysis in order to produce reliable estimates that can be used to guide coastal adaptation policies in Canada.     

产业生态化协同集聚的绿色经济效应与空间溢出效应

协同集聚作为现阶段产业发展的主要组织方式，对区域经济和生态均存在多方面影响。环保产业与一般制造业共聚是产业协同集聚的一种细分模式，通过对比其与一般协同集聚在动因、效应和关联方式等方面异同，依据其显著的生态闭环功能和环境正外部性特征，将其命名为生态化协同集聚，并基于2013—2019年短面板数据，采用杜宾模型（SDM）考察生态化协同集聚的绿色经济效应和空间溢出效应。结果表明，全国范围内生态化协同集聚对绿色经济效率的促进作用总体呈现U型特征，且存在显著的空间异质性和空间溢出效应；沿海地区生态化协同集聚程度较高，对绿色经济效率已形成有效促进作用，而内陆地区生态化协同集聚水平较低，集聚对绿色经济效率表现为抑制作用；环境规制对生态化协同集聚的绿色经济效应具有显著影响。结论可为生态化协同集聚促进区域绿色经济效率提升和高质量发展提供决策参考。     

Symposium onMarket development and inequality in China1

After three decades of market development, the problem in China is no longer how to achieve growth but how to manage its consequences and how to sustain it. One of the most important consequences is the growing inequality – between skilled and unskilled workers, between the genders, between rural and urban areas, and between inland and coastal regions. The papers in this symposium shed light on the important issue of inequality during rapid market development in China. Analysis based on ground level empirical studies can help us to understand better the sources of the rising inequality and to illuminate the nature of the future challenges.     

湖北省高新技术产业应对全球经济危机的思考与建议

由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机已演变为席卷全球的经济危机,对中国实体经济的影响已由沿海向内地传导,湖北省部分经济指标的增速从2008年第四季度开始明显下滑。湖北省应创新发展模式,着力推动“资源节约型、环境友好型”高新技术产业快速发展,引导高新技术产业为先导带动全省产业结构调整与升级。建议将湖北省高新技术产业带的建设与武汉城市圈“两型社会”建设相结合,进行产业内与产业间的联盟,加强人才队伍建设,完善技术创新体系,大力推动高新技术产业实现规模化、产业化。     

加速东部沿海欠发达地区发展的有效路径研究

依据众多的经济发展理论分析沿海欠发达地区存在着五方面的问题：技术创新与制度创新能力弱,生产力发展水平低下;农业比重过大,产业缺陷较明显;地理位置偏僻,中心城市的经济辐射作用相当有限;经济发展落后,人口规模相对偏低;平均国民收入水平低,消费与投资均陷入不足的恶性循环。因此,应该改善当地的交通条件,促进制造业产业集群的形成,加快沿海欠发达地区城市化发展进程,扶持服务业,大力发展旅游业,以加速东部欠发达地区的发展。     

沿海欠发达地区产业结构演进和经济增长关系实证——以山东省菏泽市为例

改革开放以来,我国沿海省市经济虽取得了举世瞩目的发展,但其内部仍有欠发达地区。促进沿海欠发达地区经济发展,缩小区域经济差异是一个具有重大理论价值和现实意义的课题。依据产业结构的演进规律及其与经济增长关系的基本理论和利用偏离—份额分析法（Shift-Share Method,SSM）对山东省菏泽市进行实证分析,揭示菏泽产业结构的演变特征及其与区域经济发展的关系,分析菏泽产业结构演进的机理,提出今后菏泽产业结构演进的态势,以期为菏泽市及与其相似的沿海欠发达地区产业结构调整和区域经济的可持续发展提供决策参考。     

Analysis of nutrient content and assessment of economic value for major salt-tolerant plants in coastal areas: a case study of Dongying City,Shandong Province

Salinization of soil is a worldwide problem concerning resources and ecology,especially serious in coastal areas.Testing of 26 sorts of data or parameters are carried out on leaves of 22 plant species (in 24 plant variety) of existing main salt-tolerant plant of the Yellow River Delta region.Data or parameters include the following elements:contents of K+,Na+,Ca2+,Mg2+ and Cl-,contents of protein,fat,total energy,ash and contents of 17 amino acids.The results show that these tested plants have economic values.For example,according to their uses,they can be divided into edible plants,forage plants,medicine or health plants,and some of them can be used for multipurposes.These plants have played important roles in the sustainable utilization of plant resources in coastal areas.This paper has taken evaluations on the economic uses of salt-tolerant plants and given suggestions for saline soil improvement and resource utilization in coastal areas.Based on the results of investigation and experiments,we suppose that the salt-tolerant plants in coastal areas can be grouped into 9 main groups according to their eeonomic value:pioneer plants for saline land improvement,medicine,edible and forage plants,industry material forestation,breeding material,energy plants and eco-tourism resources.     

The international potential of traditional resource systems in marginal areas

Marginal areas of the world, including tropical highlands, tropical coastal zones, and arid lands, are problematical for development. They are ecologically special areas, often of vital consequence to the stability of more populated regions nearby. Commonly, their peoples are culturally distinct. To develop marginal areas it is suggested that “transformational” development may be appropriate. Transformational development recognizes the importance of equity and of working with existing resource systems already ecologically and culturally appropriate to the area. In marginal areas, a special application of transformational development could include incremental changes in existing systems and their connection to modern international systems so as to benefit the inhabitants of marginal areas and to supply commodities and goods demanded in the rest of the world. By rethinking ideas about resources, an exploratory framework for such transformation is examined. This framework uses the concept of “resource system”, a concept which might play an important part in the application of equitable future global development efforts.     

Estimates of the Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise

Regional estimates of direct cost (DC) are commonly used to measure the economic damages of sea level rise. Such estimates suffer from three limitations:(i) values of threatened endowments are not well known, (ii) loss of endowments does not affect consumer prices, and (iii) international trade is disregarded. Results in this paper indicate that these limitations can significantly affect economic assessments of sea level rise. Current uncertainty regarding endowment values (as reflected in two alternative data sets), for example, leads to a 17 percent difference in coastal protection, a 36 percent difference in the amount of land protected, and a 36 percent difference in DC globally. Also, global losses in equivalent variation (EV), a welfare measure that accounts for price changes, are 13 percent higher than DC estimates. Regional EV losses may be up to 10 percent lower than regional DC, however, because international trade tends to redistribute losses from regions with relatively high damages to regions with relatively low damages.     

Resource abundance and regional development in China1

Over the past several decades, China has made tremendous progress in market integration and infrastructure development. Demand for natural resources has increased from the booming coastal economies, causing the terms of trade to favour the resource sector, which is predominantly based in the interior regions of the country. However, the gap in economic development level between the coastal and inland regions has widened significantly. In this paper, using a panel dataset at the provincial level, we show that Chinese provinces with abundant resources perform worse than their resource‐poor counterparts in terms of per capita consumption growth. This trend that resource‐poor areas are better off than resource‐rich areas is particularly prominent in rural areas. Because of the institutional arrangements regarding property rights of natural resources, most gains from the resource boom have been captured either by the government‐ or state‐owned enterprises. Thus, the windfall of natural resources has more to do with government consumption than household consumption. Moreover, in resource‐rich areas, greater revenues accrued from natural resources bid up the price of non‐tradable goods and hurt the competitiveness of the local economy.     

Economic evaluations in migraine: systematic literature review and a novel approach

Abstract

Background: For novel migraine therapies, economic evaluations will be required to understand the trade-offs between additional health benefit and additional cost. The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic literature review (SLR) to identify previous economic evaluations in migraine from the United Kingdom or Irish perspective to critically appraise these evaluations and to propose, if necessary, a novel modelling approach that can be used for future economic evaluations of migraine therapies.

Methods: An SLR was conducted to identify previous economic evaluations of preventive migraine treatments. Key opinion leaders were consulted to determine the criteria for a robust migraine economic evaluation. Economic evaluations identified in the SLR were appraised against these criteria, and a novel cost-effectiveness model structure was then proposed.

Results: Eight records reporting on published economic evaluations were identified and critically appraised for general quality. Expert consultation provided 6 recommendations on the ideal model structure for migraine that is both clinically and economically meaningful. A decision-tree plus Markov structure was then developed as a cost-effectiveness model for migraine therapies where each health state is associated with a patient distribution across monthly migraine day (MMD) frequencies.

Conclusions: Future migraine economic evaluations should allow for assessments across the full spectrum of migraine, a response-based stopping rule, and the estimation of benefits and resource costs based on MMD frequency. The approach proposed in this paper captures all of the desired elements for an economic evaluation of migraine therapy and is suitable to assess new migraine therapies.     

中国企业家精神时空演化及驱动因素分析

基于空间计量经济学视角,探究了1998-2016年中国企业家精神时空演化特征,构建了空间杜宾模型,分析了企业家精神驱动因素。研究结果表明：中国的企业家精神在时间和空间上呈现不均衡发展特征,地区差异显著,甚至存在两极分化现象,整体呈现出自东部沿海地区向西部内陆地区阶梯性递减态势,且邻近省域企业家精神相近,具有一定空间集聚性;企业家精神的空间正相关性逐渐增强,空间依赖性增大;人力资本、经济发展程度、创新和教育水平是省域企业家精神的主要驱动因素,其中,人力资本、经济发展程度和教育水平对本省域企业家精神存在显著正向驱动作用,创新水平对邻近省域企业家精神存在显著正向驱动作用,教育水平对邻近省域企业家精神存在显著负向驱动作用。     

Episodic flooding and the cost of sea-level rise

Previous studies of the cost of sea-level rise focus on the economic loss to inundated property rather than increased damage from episodic flood events to non-inundated property above sea level. This study uses a unique GIS database of three geographically diverse Chesapeake Bay communities that includes 1-ft elevation contours from remote sensing data, local tax assessment records, and aerial photographs of property location. Hedonic property value models estimate the loss from complete inundation, closely following the methodology of previous studies. Increased damage from episodic flooding is estimated using elevation-rated, actuarially fair flood insurance rates. Using a 3-ft sea-level rise over 100 years scenario, damage from episodic flooding averages 9 times the estimated loss from complete inundation, and is an average of 28 times greater under a 2-ft sea-level rise scenario. Although the study areas are not representative of all coastal areas, the results suggest that current studies may substantially underestimate the cost of sea-level rise.     

中国海洋经济预测研究

海洋经济发展目标的确定是制定国家海洋发展战略、国家级海洋经济发展规划和沿海地方海洋经济发展规划中必须解决的问题之一。因此,海洋经济预测是海洋经济研究领域不可回避的问题之一。对适于进行海洋经济预测的灰色系统模型、趋势外推法、成长曲线法、组合预测法等进行深入探讨,对组合预测结果的最有效性给出可靠的数学证明,并运用所建立的模型对2015年和2020年我国海洋经济和主要海洋产业发展水平进行预测。     

基于大数据背景的中国区域经济协调性聚类分析研究

改革开放以来,我国在经济建设和社会发展方面都交出了令人满意的答卷,但由于历史、地理等各方面原因,我国的经济发展十分不平衡,一些东部沿海地区的年度GDP是西部落后地区的数十倍,同时各省一级行政区经济水平和与之对应的金融生态系统不匹配现象十分普遍。本文以2018年我国内陆地区各省一级行政区经济发展状况为研究对象,分析了造成区域经济发展不平衡的宏观因素和微观因素,并用聚类的方法分析了区域经济的协调性,将各省一级行政区经济分为8类,最后根据分类结果给出了发展区域经济的建议。     

我国区域海洋科技创新与海洋经济发展协调度研究

海洋科技创新与海洋经济协调发展现已成为区域海洋经济持续健康发展的关键性因素。通过构建海洋科技创新指标体系和海洋经济发展水平指标体系,运用动态因子分析模型来研究中国 2006-2015年 11个沿海省市的海洋科技创新能力和海洋经济发展水平的动态变化趋势,并建立协调度模型评价沿海省市海洋科技创新与海洋经济发展之间的协调度。结果表明：从协调度等级来看,沿海省市的协调性有较大差异,可分为 4个等级;从协调发展类型来看,多数沿海省市海洋科技创新滞后。     

江苏省南北经济发展差距及其协调研究 --兼与鲁南和中国东西部地区的比较

作为我国沿海地带的一个发达省份,江苏历史上就存在着十分显著的区域经济发展差距,并由此产生了一系列突出的区域问题。文章以统计资料分析为基础,对江苏境内南北两大板块的经济发展差距进行了较为全面的动态比较,并将苏北与鲁南、江苏南北与我国东西经济发展状况作了对照,得出一些重要结论：①20多年来江苏南北经济发展差距呈现出迅速扩大趋势;②苏北经济发展水平略高于鲁南,但增长速度相对滞缓;③江苏南北经济发展差距比我国东西还要大。同时,文中还就有关现象和问题形成的主要原因,从自然、人文和历史等视角进行了剖析;对促进苏南与苏北经济协调发展提出了一些有针对性的建议,认为积极推进苏北大发展,不仅是缩小江苏南北经济发展差距的关键所在,也是实施江苏省区域共同发展战略的重大举措,更是实现“两个率先”的必然选择。     

HABITAT–FISHERY LINKAGES AND MANGROVE LOSS IN THAILAND

The article develops a dynamic model of habitat–fishery linkage in which the habitat is being converted. The basic model is applied to a case study of the impacts of mangrove deforestation on the artisanal marine demersal and shellfish fisheries in Thailand. The comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on the long-run equilibrium level of effort and fish stocks, as well as on the resulting market harvesting supply of the fishery, are determined. By estimating parameters through pooled timE-series and cross-sectional data over the 1983–96 period for the five coastal zones along the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea, the welfare impacts of mangrove deforestation are estimated. Mangrove conversion is expected to be a function of the return to shrimp farming and the input costs to farming shrimp, plus exogenous economic factors. The resulting aggregate reduced-form level of mangrove clearing by all farmers in coastal areas is empirically estimated across the five coastal zones in Thailand over 1983–96. The policy implications of the findings are discussed with respect to Thailand and the modeling of habitat–fishery linkages.     

基于ESDA的江苏省县域经济发展空间模式解析

利用1988—2009年江苏省县域人均GDP数据,基于邻接和距离规则定义空间权重矩阵,采用ESDA全局和局部空间关联分析方法,对江苏省县域经济发展的空间发展模式进行了研究。结果表明：在基于邻接规则的空间关联模式分析下,江苏省县域经济发展的空间相互联系强度可划分为四个阶段：①1988—1993年,苏南与苏中、苏北空间差异并不显著;②1994—1996年,全省经济布局极化现象显著增强;③1997—2003年,极化现象有所缓解;④2004—2008年,苏南与苏中、苏北区域经济差距进一步拉大。在基于距离规则的空间关联模式分析下,初步推断江苏省县域经济之间正的空间关联性影响范围在240 km之内。苏南经济的快速发展对沿江地带经济起到了较大的推动作用,但沿海地区的经济发展在2009年前还有很大改观,还需要进一步挖掘和带动。     

太原大都市区城市化特征,问题与对策

大都市区的形成与发展是现代城市化进程的一个重要特征。近年来,有关我国沿海发达地区大都市区的实证研究成果较多。本以内陆资源型省区中心城市太原市为案例,通过与发达地区都市区发展的比较来揭示其发育特征。结果表明：太原大都市区发育尚处于初期阶段,无论人口、经济集聚水平还是城市化进程与我国发达地区同类城市都市区相比仍有较大差距。其滞后的原因在于中心城市产业结构转换滞缓,扩散力弱;城市资本集聚有效发挥等方面