The Potential Impact of Sino-Korean Bilateral Trade on Economic Growth and the Environment: A CGE Model Analysis

A consensus is still to be reached regarding the relationship between trade, growth, and the environment in either the existing theoretical models or previous empirical analyses. By using a Sino-Korean case study, we expect this work to contribute to the theoretical and empirical knowledge of the relationship between trade, growth and the environment. In this paper, four types of simulation are executed by applying a Sino-Korea CGE model. The results reveal that an increasing volume of bilateral trade boosts the real GDP at a decreasing rate. Different degrees in the volume of increase of bilateral trade produce welfare gains for Chinese households, i.e. more household spending. Welfare increases at a decreasing rate when the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently, while in Korea there are welfare losses (less household consumption) when the bilateral trade target becomes increasingly stringent. Moreover, the investment gains in the economy tend to rise more sharply as the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently in China. The investment tends to decrease at a proportional rate when the target bilateral trade volume becomes more stringent and the changes in the gross investment become more significant in Korea. In addition, the aggregate production shows a tendency to increase at a proportional rate with a more stringent target bilateral trade volume and when there are considerable changes in gross production. Furthermore, the impact of most production sectors can benefit China, but have a negative impact on Korea. Meantime, the simulations highlight that import growth increases carbon emissions at a decreasing rate, and export growth increases carbon emissions. According to our policy findings, policy makers should be advised to consider the third trade policy (Scenario c), which maintains a reasonable economic growth but at the expense of investment and welfare.     

Tariffication of a Distorted Economy: A CGE Analysis

This paper examines the consequences of the tariffication of a quota when there are several potential distortions present in a country, including domestic monopoly and wage rigidities. It is generally presumed that tariffs are superior to quotas because of their transparency and revenue-raising attributes. However, in the presence of multiple distortions, liberalization of a single policy instrument may result in net welfare losses. The findings suggest that, in a general equilibrium context, such a liberalization policy will have ambiguous effects upon aggregate domestic welfare in the country undertaking the tariffication.     

生态占用、绿色发展与环境税改革

将税收负担从劳动力和资本要素转移到自然资源的使用和污染的排放已成为环境税改革的基本思路。基于中国将资源税扩展到对自然生态空间的占用的改革,本文在量化自然生态空间占用及其价值核算基础之上,提出了基于生态赤字价值补偿的环境税方案(1),并运用CGE模型从区域层面分析了征收环境税和降低个人及企业所得税的政策效应。模拟结果表明,在短期内,各地区生态占用减少,东部地区和中部地区投资需求及就业人数增加,税收方案能够引导经济增长从生态占用转向资本和劳动力要素。总产出和中间投入普遍下降,但中间投入减少相对更大,因此各地区保持经济增长,其中西部地区增长率偏低。从长期看,东部和中部地区名义GDP增长率出现短期较大幅度的下滑,随后增长率逐年增长,其中东部地区增速的下降主要是因为第二产业总产出增速放缓,中部地区总产出及中间投入的波动与GDP增长的波动在时间上对应,西部地区增长率及总产出和中间投入稳定增长,各地区增长得益于第二产业投入产出效率的提高。因此,本文建议开征环境税约束生态超额占用,相应收入用于减轻所得税,其中东部地区侧重降低企业所得税,中部和西部地区侧重降低个人所得税。     

税制改革、经济效率和社会福利——基于A-KOLG框架下的动态CGE模拟分析

在经典的世代交叠动态一般均衡(A-K OLG)模型的基础上,建立了一个由一系列不等式方程组所构成的"跨期动态"模型,反现实地模拟了提高间接税同时降低直接税对我国社会福利、经济效率的影响。与基期相比,减少对资本征税会带来福利增长0.34%(纯经济效率提高0.25%),减少对劳动征税会带来福利增长0.1%(纯经济效率提高0.02%)。该实证结果证明了间接税比直接税更有利于实现经济效率的理论观点。因此,提高直接税的比重是需要以一定的经济效率损失为代价的,实行该项举措应该权衡好各方面利弊、把握好改革时机。     

Liberalizing NAFTA Rules of Origin: A Dynamic CGE Analysis

Most computable general-equilibrium (CGE) studies assessing the welfare impact of moving from a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to a deeper form of integration, for example a customs union (CU), typically proxy the integration as the adoption of a common external tariff toward the rest of the world. However, a CU is also an arrangement that allows for the elimination of FTAs' preferential rules of origin (ROO), which is typically not captured in CGE studies. This paper addresses the issue using a multicountry, multisector dynamic CGE model. Although the removal of distortionary ROO is likely to lower the unit costs of production within North America, it may also deteriorate North American terms of trade with the rest of the world. Thus, the net effect of the removal of NAFTA ROO on welfare is ambiguous and is an empirical issue.     

会计准则国际趋同的经济后果:一个分析框架

全球目前已有超过130个国家和地区要求或允许采用国际财务报告准则(IFRS)。采纳IFRS既有直接后果,又有间接后果,直接后果即采用IFRS会对会计信息可比性、相关性和可靠性等信息质量特征产生影响;间接后果则是IFRS通过影响会计信息质量特征,进而影响分析师行为、资本市场发展、委托代理成本以及公司内部经营决策效率等。本文提出了两个推论:一是制度差异调节论;二是小国受益论。本文认为,会计准则国际趋同对会计信息有用性的影响,一方面取决于一国资本市场和发达资本市场中投资者结构的差异,这影响了会计信息需求特征;另一方面取决于一国的投资者产权保护体系和准则执行力度,这影响了会计信息供给特征。同时,小国更可能从IFRS采纳或趋同中获益。     

应用CGE模型分析中国征收燃油税的经济影响

本文利用作者构建的"能源-经济-环境"CGE模型模拟了中国征收燃油税的经济影响.模拟结果表明,征收燃油税会在一定程度上对我国的经济增长、居民福利以及部分产业的发展带来负面影响,但却将有效促进国内成品油需求量的降低,有利于减少石油进口和保障我国能源安全.当前,我国应该在采取有效措施积极应对燃油税负面影响的前提下稳步推进燃油税改革.     

Biofuels and Climate Change Mitigation: A CGE Analysis Incorporating Land-Use Change

We examine the impact of a “green network effect” in a market characterized by consumers’ environmental awareness and competition between firms in terms of both environmental quality and product prices. The unique aspect of this model comes from the assumption that an increase in the number of consumers of green (brown) product increases the satisfaction of each green (brown) consumer. We show that, paradoxically, when the network effect of a green product is higher than that of a brown product, this externality reduces product environmental quality and raises consumption of the green product. Conversely, when the network effect of the brown product is higher, the externality improves product environmental quality and raises consumption of the brown product. In both cases, the network effect does not affect the overall pollution level. The externality correction requires the use of three optimal fiscal policies: an ad valorem tax on products, an emission tax, and a subsidy or a tax on the green purchase. A second-best optimum can also be reached through the green taxation.     

The Economic Consequences of Dollar Appreciation for US Manufacturing Investment: A Time‐Series Analysis

This article analyses the effects of the real value of the dollar on investment in US domestic manufacturing using aggregate data for 1973–2004. Econometric estimation shows a negative effect that is much larger than has been found in any previous study. The exchange rate affects investment mainly, although not exclusively, through the channel of financial or liquidity constraints, rather than by affecting the desired stock of capital. Counterfactual simulations show that US manufacturing investment would have been 61% higher and the capital stock would have been 17% higher in 2004 if the dollar had not appreciated after 1995.     

Green Throughput Taxation: Environmental and Economic Consequences

According to optimal taxation theory, raw materials should be taxed to capture the embedded scarcity rent in their value. To reduce both natural resource use and the corresponding emissions, or the throughput in the economic system, the best policy may be a tax on material inputs. As a first approach to throughput taxation, this paper considers a tax on intermediates in the framework of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with environmental feedbacks. To balance the budget, payroll taxes are reduced. As a result, welfare indicators as material consumption and leisure time consumption are reduced, while on the other hand all the environmental indicators improve.     

人民币国际化的动态CGE研究

人民币国际化将对我国的经济发展产生深远的影响.本文沿用李稻葵、刘霖林设计的三种预测人民币国际化程度的情景,运用一个中国动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型-MCHUGE模型分析人民币国际化对中国经济的影响,研究不同人民币国际化程度下的经济走势.仿真结果表明:人民币国际化对贸易条件的改善、就业及产业优化都具有正向作用.但目前人民币国际化程度还相当低,人民币从初步国际化到完全国际化可能需要相当长的时间.     

中概股公司私有化研究:动机与经济后果

文章研究了中概股公司私有化的动机与经济后果.研究发现,从私有化前一年这个特定时点来看,中概股公司私有化的动机主要是避免企业价值被低估、减少自由现金流和降低交易成本.而且,管理层持股比例越高,公司越有可能采用管理层收购方式进行私有化.从上市到私有化的长期角度来看,中概股公司私有化的动机主要是避免企业价值被低估和降低代理成本.进一步的研究还发现,中概股公司宣布私有化具有显著的正向溢出效应,具体表现为同行业未私有化的中概股公司股票获得了显著为正的超额回报,而且溢出效应对于估值水平较低和自由现金流较多的同行业中概股公司更加显著.     

The Economic Rise of China: Challenges and Opportunities for ASEAN

This paper looks at the economic rise of China and its impacts and implications for the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) region. The issues of complementarities and competitiveness of ASEAN and China in trade and investment and the opportunities and challenges arising from China's emergence and the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area are discussed. The message from China's emergence is clear and strong; it is that size does matter. To increase ASEAN competitiveness, the paper highlights the need for a deeper and more rapid economic integration of ASEAN in order to exploit scale economies. The important role of Japan in this process is highlighted. Finally the issue of ASEAN economic diversity is discussed. It is suggested that while ASEAN is fairly diverse, this should not be a critical stumbling block to a more rapid economic integration of ASEAN.     

政治制度不确定性及其风险的经济学思考

政治制度的不确定性是我国财政风险的一个重要原因.从经济学角度,特别是根据公共选择理论,分析我国的政治制度运行中的不确定性以及由此产生的财政风险,从而得出结论,为防范和化解财政风险,必须对我国的政治制度进行变革.     

中国碳减排政策的模拟分析——基于中国能源CGE模型的研究

通过构建中国能源CGE模型,在模型中引入碳税和碳排放变量,细化出能源部门,并将煤炭、石油和天然气三种主要能源作为生产要素,设定节能减排基准情景,针对碳减排、碳税和能源结构调整这三个不同的能源政策对经济发展以及碳排放的冲击效果进行了模拟分析.模拟结果表明,单一的能源政策总有不足之处,要么减排效果欠佳,要么严重制约经济发展,因此国家应该将减排政策系统化,构造一个适应现实需要的低碳经济政策体系.     

国债旅游基础设施投资效应：基于CGE模型的研究

利用国债资金进行旅游基础设施建设所产生的经济效应问题是政府和学术界都极为关心的重大现实问题。在构建“整合”的旅游生产函数的基础上,利用CGE模型对2000--2005年中国国债旅游基础设施投资对于旅游业以及全社会价格水平、总产出、总消费、居民收入、就业以及私人部门投资等方面的经济影响进行了定量研究。研究表明,国债旅游基础设施对于中国旅游业以及社会经济的发展均产生了积极的影响,有必要继续实施,为充分发挥基础设施条件改善对于目的地社会经济发展的推动作用,各地在旅游发展战略和旅游规划制定方面也需要有所调整。     

Trade liberalisation and inequalities in Nepal: A CGE analysis

In this paper we examine the effects of trade liberalisation on inequality in the small developing country of Nepal. We use a Computable General Equilibrium approach applied to a newly developed social accounting matrix, simulating three liberalisation scenarios: (i) import liberalisation; (ii) export liberalisation; and (iii) import and export liberalisations implemented together under different exchange rate regimes. Outcomes reveal that industry reallocation following liberalisation does not respond to classical trade theory expectations about factor intensity and abundance. On the distributive side, liberalisation seems to increase the high-skilled/low-skilled gap and favour rich households relatively more. However, since under fixed exchange rate also the two poorest household groups increase their income levels, liberalisation may also expected to be beneficial for poverty alleviation.     

财税政策调整与财政风险预警研究——基于CGE模拟分析

在我国中央财政赤字增加和地方债务不断累积的情况下,观察财政风险的变化情况尤其重要。本文首先总结财政风险预警研究的最新进展,构建了一个在复杂现实背景下分析财税政策调整对财政风险影响的CGE模型,模拟了增加财政支出、提高税负和提高利率的三种情形,研究发现:在宏观经济运行的内外部条件没有改变的前提下,今后五年的财政风险都将继续加大。因此,建议对后金融危机时代的财政风险状况变化给予高度关注,提高财政透明度,设立财政偿债基金,建立风险管理及预警机制,确保风险在可控的范围内。