Political construction and control of technology: wave-power renewable energy technologies

Recognizing that gouernment-sponsored research, development and demonstration (R,D&D) is a rentral factor in the construction of new technologies, this paper analyzes selected aspects of the relationships between government officials, 'private' businesses and technologists, within the process of technolog development. Building on precious zoork in the social construction of technology tradition for example, of Hughes, Pinch and Biker) and in technology policy and decision-making theoy (for example, of Collingridge and Morone and Woodhouse), and using the case of wave-power R&D in the UK; the paper identifies characteristics of embryonic technological artefacts and their institutional contexts which tend to bias the socio-political construction process. The key to the paper is the extent to which such distortions lead to unwise, uneconomical and/or unfair innovations or hinder learning about seemingly inflexible technologies, which could help to reduce their complexity, scale or cost.     

Political construction and control of technology: wave-power renewable energy technologies

Recognizing that gouernment-sponsored research, development and demonstration (R,D&D) is a rentral factor in the construction of new technologies, this paper analyzes selected aspects of the relationships between government officials, ‘private’ businesses and technologists, within the process of technolog development. Building on precious zoork in the social construction of technology tradition for example, of Hughes, Pinch and Biker) and in technology policy and decision-making theoy (for example, of Collingridge and Morone and Woodhouse), and using the case of wave-power R&D in the UK; the paper identifies characteristics of embryonic technological artefacts and their institutional contexts which tend to bias the socio-political construction process. The key to the paper is the extent to which such distortions lead to unwise, uneconomical and/or unfair innovations or hinder learning about seemingly inflexible technologies, which could help to reduce their complexity, scale or cost.     

欧盟可再生能源技术的研发及发展趋势

从宏观角度,对欧盟促进可再生能源技术发展的战略及相关政策与措施进行分析解读。欧盟 2020 战略确定的促进能源安全及多元化发展和积极应对气候变化的总目标是：能源体系的可持续、可靠性和竞争力。能源技术必须为实现总目标服务,其研发的主要方向是：能源更清洁、更安全,价格更合理。欧盟战略能源技术行动计划（SET－Plan）,旨在制定欧盟中长期战略能源技术的研发创新、成果转化和创新产品及服务的发展战略,包括短期的具体行动计划,也包括建立战略能源技术发展的长效机制。SET－Plan 最重要的行动之一,就是加强成员国之间以及同世界主要能源伙伴国家的国际能源科技合作。     

Dynamics of the UK natural gas industry: System dynamics modelling and long-term energy policy analysis

We present a dynamic model of the indigenous natural gas industry in the UK. The model has been built using a system dynamics approach. Using the model several scenarios have been analyzed. We found that management of the supply-side policy alone cannot substantially postpone the discovery, production and consumption peak. We also found that the dynamics of the main variables, namely, exploration, production and consumption, are sensitive to initial demand conditions. Postponing the onset of gas price increases can therefore be achieved more effectively through efforts to reduce demand growth. One might expect that a low taxation policy would encourage more exploration and production of gas and thereby stimulate higher consumption rates. Instead, there was no overall net effect on production and consumption in the long term. The depletion effect on cost of exploration acts as counterbalance to low taxation policy. Depletion effect causes cost and thus price to rise further which depress consumption rate. The advances in exploration and production technology can delay the peak of exploration, production and consumption. Technological improvements mean lower cost of exploration and production which pressure down the long-term pattern of price dynamics.     

The organizational politics of information technology: Studies from the UK financial servies industry

The article critically appraises two recent contributions to studies of organizational change: processual analysis and the firm-in-sector perspective. These studies argue that managerial practice is intensely political. They also attempt to firmly locate that practice in its organizational and environmental or sectoral context. Drawing upon these studies the article examines the management of information technology (IT) in the UK life insurance sector. This examination uses a case study and sectoral research-in-progress. The article argues that organizational IT use and development is a politicla and social process characterized by tension and conflict between managers. This conclusion suggests that organizational studies of IT use need to develop more sophisticated theories of management and managerial practice. By so doing they may then be able to shed a more penetrating light on the relationships between managers, technologies and organizational change.     

New technology and the economic organization of the clothing industry

The economic organization of an industry is ultimately determined by the cost functions of its component firms. The costs that matter for the competitive state of an industry are not just long-run variable costs but also the costs of entry to and exit from the industry, and the joint costs of different products that the firms in the industry produce. In the clothing industry the costs of creating and implementing new designs is a further important factor affecting competition between firms. Since costs are largely determined by technology, we expect repercussions on the organization of the industry when technology changes. Application of the new information technologies in the clothing industry will encourag agglomerations by growth and by merger, with larger firms producing a wider range of products and introducing new products faster than hitherto. Trends in the geographic organization of production will also be reversed.     

Competitive strategy and the implementation of a new network technology: the case of EFTPOS in the UK

This article analyses competrtion and cooperation between UK banks, as they attempted to develop a national syitem jor electronic funds transfer at the point of sale (EFTPOS) The banks formed a {epanste company, EFTPOS UK Ltd, to develop a technically sophisticated national system, but soon interbank divisions led the larger banks to develop national schemes from pnwourly 'exfierzmental' networks. Over a period of two years, competition came to be defined as that between banks supporing the Switch scheme and banks supporting a Visa afebit turd senme. During this period the banks made repeated public declarations of the commritment to EFTPOS UK and represented nascent, proprietary EFTPOS networks as computible with the national scheme. The process by which the banks attempted to make sente of that ambiguous competitive environment is described and we use the idea of metastable' competive rategies to represent the successive temporary commitments the banks made to particular ways of understanding thew competitiue environments. 'strategic maps are drawn to represent stages in bank thinking on the possible competitive outcomes of EFTPOS development.     

英国的创意产业技术战略

英国技术战略委员会(TSB)于2009年发布的《创意产业技术战略(2009-2012)》报告,在深入分析创意产业特点及发展环境变化、影响创意产业发展的技术方向及其创意产业发展新趋势的基础上,提出了支持创意产业技术创新的系列举措.本文在该报告的基础上,结合英国对创意产业特征的新认识,对英国创意产业发展战略进行了解析,并提出了对我国发展创意产业的几点建议,如应密切关注产业发展新特点和发展机遇、 高度重视创意产业技术创新、关注重要技术方向以及为创新营造良好环境等.     

论可再生能源的开发与利用

能源是经济发展和社会进步的重要物质资料，从利用方式可把能源分为不可再生能源和可再生能源，不可再生能源在世界经济发展和人类进步中发挥着非常重要的作用。同时，却又给人类制造着生态危机，而且不可再生能源储量有限，终有一天会枯竭，由此引发的世界能源冲突不断加剧，这决定着人类要去开发利用可再生能源，可再生能源除了拥有不可再生能源的一切优势外，并不会给人类构成任何危害，能够满足人类对能源的长远需求，为人类创造和平、自由、平等和繁荣，中国的强盛，中华民族的复兴，决定着我们必须拥有稳定的，越来越多的能源，然而，中国的不可再生能源储量低，远远不能满足自身日益增长的能源需求，而且，不可再生能源已经使我们面临着严重的生态危机，因此，我们应该积极开发利用可再生能源，应把可再生能源开发利用列为我国的一项基本国策。     

Options in technology investment games: The real world TFT-LCD industry case

The Thin Film Transistor-Liquid Crystal Display (TFT-LCD) industry has demonstrated that the investment of huge amounts of capital in new plants is a key factor for success. Decisions about investing in the latest generation of plant involve billions of dollars and a great deal of uncertainty. Moreover, the industry shows distinct oligopolistic characteristics, so the first mover's reactions must be considered when making capital decisions in such competitive environments. The traditional net present value (NPV) rule is a ‘now-or-never’ concept that fails to capture the need for managerial flexibility, which is especially important when investments are irreversible and involve a great deal of uncertainty. In this paper, we use a combination of real options and game theory to analyze the investment strategies of a case company in the TFT-LCD industry. The results show that real options reveal the value of flexibility, which NPV fails to consider. In addition, we apply game theory analysis to different investment strategies to demonstrate the decision-making processes used by competing companies.     

Regulatory design and incentives for renewable energy

Increasing electric power production from renewable energy sources is currently one of the major objectives of energy policy. The intermittent nature of renewables, such as wind and solar, necessarily imposes complex trade-offs for regulatory objectives, such as resource adequacy (and system reliability) versus reductions in green house gas emissions. We develop a highly stylized model of investments in order to derive insights regarding the workings of regulatory incentives for increased renewable energy. We first show that incentives are indeed needed when there are significant economies of scale in the form of “learning by doing” or alternatively, when there is excess capacity in conventional technology due to legacy investments. We analyze two different regulatory schemes (feed-in tariffs and renewable portafolio standards) aimed at increasing investment in renewable capacity. We show that neither scheme is capable of inducing the socially optimal level of investment in renewable capacity. A single feed-in tariff fails to induce optimal investment as a feed-in tariff exceeding marginal costs of conventional technology incentivizes over-development of the most attractive sites which preempts investment in less attractive, yet socially valuable sites. A renewable portfolio standard that promotes increased investment in renewable technology induces under-investment in the conventional technology. These results suggest that a “clinical” regulatory design, that is, one that promotes the right amount of renewable capacity without affecting conventional capacity is a challenging proposition.     

New UK interdisciplinary research centres: reorganization for new generic technology

This article considers the various strategic and organizational problems connected with the UK's introduction of university-based Interdisciplinary Research Centres (IRCs) to develop the knowledge bases underlying key new generic technologies—such as biotechnology and high temperature superconductivity. The new IRCs are set against the context of the UK's declining economic competitiveness and the UK's present rationalization of higher education, including the further concentration of university scientific research in fewer departments and centres. The origins of the IRC model are examined and related to similar cantres now being introduced in the USA. Mobility between the IRCs, university departments and participating firms is seen as a key issue, as is the question of whether a balance of resources can be maintained. A sensitive issue is whether or not the sort of strategic management of research resources envisioned will result in long-term distortions of organizational decelopment—and of the overall intellectual directions, shape and standing of UK universities.     

A model of technological breakthrough in the renewable energy sector

Models with induced technological change in the energy sector often predict a gradual expansion of renewable energies, and a substantial share of fossil fuels remaining in the energy mix through the end of our century. However, there are historical examples where new products or technologies expanded rapidly and achieved a high output in a relatively short period of time. This paper explores the possibility of a ‘technological breakthrough’ in the renewable energy sector, using a partial equilibrium model of energy generation with endogenous R&D. Our results indicate, that due to increasing returns-to-scale, a multiplicity of equilibria can arise. In the model, two stable states can coexist, one characterized by a lower and one by higher supply of renewable energy. The transition from the low-output to the high-output equilibrium is characterized by a discontinuous rise in R&D activity and capacity investments in the renewable energy sector. The transition can be triggered by a rise in world energy demand, by a drop in the supply of fossil fuels, or by policy intervention. Under market conditions, the transition occurs later than in the social optimum. Hence, we identify a market failure related to path-dependence and technological lock-in, that can justify a strong policy intervention initially. Paradoxically, well-intended energy-saving policies can actually lead to higher emissions, as they reduce the incentives to invest in renewable energies by having a cushioning effect on the energy price. Hence, these policies should be supplemented by other instruments that restore the incentives to invest in renewable energies. Finally, we discuss the influence of monopoly power in the market for innovations. We show that market power can alleviate the problem of technological lock-in, but creates a new market failure that reduces static efficiency.     

Determining the going market value of a business in an emerging information technology industry: The case of the cellular communications industry

Given the phenomenal growth or the anticipation of growth in certain information technology industries, concerns for economy of scale, market access and expansion, and the need for ongoing research and development are resulting in mergers, acquisitions, and strategic alliances. A key question in such industries is what is, or should be the going market value of a business? This paper suggests an approach to imbed market penetration models in the popular value-based planning approach suggested by Rappaport [36] to obtain the going market value of a business. The model developed in implementing the approach is tailored for the cellular communications industry. Limitations and adaptations of the approach to other industries are discussed.     

Determinants of renewable energy adoption in China and India: a comparative analysis

This article examines the dynamic relationships among output, carbon emission and renewable energy generation of India and China during the period 1972 to 2011 using a multivariate vector error correction model (VECM). The results for India reveal unidirectional short-run causality from carbon emission to renewable energy generation and from renewable energy generation to output, whereas in the long run, the variables have bidirectional causality. Causalities in China give a rather different scenario, with a short-run unidirectional causality from output to renewable energy and from carbon emission to renewable energy generation. In the long run, for China, unidirectional causality is found from output to renewable energy generation, while bidirectional causality is found between carbon emission and renewable energy generation.     

Subsidies for renewable energy in inflexible power markets

This paper analyses how short-term operational efficiency and the \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions of a power system depend on different subsidies for wind power and on the flexibility of the power system. This is analysed in the framework of a numerical power market model, calibrated to Danish data, where the start-up costs and other constraints in fossil-fuelled power plants are taken into account. The main conclusion is that flexibility is crucial for the costs of integrating wind power in an existing system. If thermal power plants are inflexible, subsidies for wind power should strive to increase the flexibility of the market by passing market signals to wind power. A subsidy that conceals market signals from wind power producers (a production subsidy) or disconnects wind power incentives from the market signals altogether (a fixed price) increases costs considerably. An inflexible power system should aim to introduce optimal subsidies (an investment subsidy) instead of production subsidies or a fixed price. The design of the subsidy scheme should take into account both the characteristics of the existing system and the characteristics of renewables.     

Forecasting of electricity costs based on an enhanced gray-based learning model: A case study of renewable energy in Taiwan

This work presents a novel gray-based cost efficiency (GCE) model that integrates the gray forecasting model into a two-factor cost efficiency curve model for renewable energy (RE) technologies and identifies the optimal forecasting model for power generation cost of RE technologies. The analytical framework of proposed GCE model improves short-term prediction of power generation cost, and can be applied during the early developmental stages for RE technologies. Empirical analysis is based on wind power data for Taiwan. Time lag of knowledge stock was simulated to represent the actual relationship between R&D expenditures and cost reductions in power generation by knowledge stock. Analytical results demonstrate the GCE model is a useful tool to quantify the influences of cost reductions in power generation. The implications of analytical results are that institutional policy instruments play an important role in RE technologies achieving cost reductions and market adoption. The proposed GCE model can be applied to all high-technology cases, and particularly to RE technologies. The study concludes by outlining the limitations of the proposed GCE model and directions for further research.     

Finance and industry: the case of Greece

This article argues that the Greek banking system contributed to the emergence of a weak, uncompetitive, and ultimately highly inefficient industrial sector. This inefficiency is quantified with the help of translog cost-curve estimates for 68 firms in eight industries. The estimation shows that Greek firms operate at too small a scale, relative to their capacity, and do not exploit scale economies. It was the structure of the financial sector, as it operated within the specific political context, that led to processes that dampened competition and ultimately distorted the country's development. The financial sector's behaviour is conditioned by three structural facets: it is an oligopoly; it possesses an internal hierarchy which is fully vertical; and it is state-owned. That the financial process led to inefficiency is confirmed by examining the counterexample of efficient industrial configurations. In this case, efficient industries were able to deny the potentially harmful policies of the financial sector. In conclusion, the structure of the financial sector, and by extension the structure of the state itself, played an important role in the Greek economy.     

Capacity utilisation and corporate restructuring: a comparative study of the US, UK and other EU countries

This paper compares and contrasts capacity utilisation in themanufacturing sectors of the US, UK and other EU countries overthree decades. It argues that corporate governance and the pressuresof globalisation have led to a tighter capacity stance in theUK but not generally in the US or Europe. The paper furtherexplores the nature of the UK experience, in particular, therival theories that efficiency in capital use has increasedversus the view that firms have simply tightened their capacitystance in line with higher hurdle rates of return. The evidenceof the paper supports the view that UK firms adopted a ‘submissive’response to the pressures of globalisation by shutting capacityand retreating from new investment.     

Roadmapping a disruptive technology: A case study: The emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry

If technological roadmapping is important in the process of rapid technology commercialization, and if a method tailored to roadmapping nascent disruptive technologies does not exist, and if these very same disruptive technologies portend to be the future economic engines for firms, countries, and regions, then there is cause for concern. This article seeks to shed some light on the process in industrial disruptive technology roadmapping by focusing on the fundamental differences between sustaining and disruptive technologies. This article investigates the utility of theoretical and practitioner traditional technology roadmapping tools in an international industrial roadmapping effort focusing on microtechnology and top-down nanotechnology. I then modify the traditional technology roadmapping approaches generating a model for an industrial worldwide disruptive technology roadmapping process. I utilize the International Industrial Microsystems and Top-Down Nanosystems Roadmap (IIMTDNR) effort, which included nearly 400 people, from nearly as many firms, from over five continents and was developed over a 5-year period. The IIMTDNR process is used to provide the basis for a model for a commercial disruptive technology roadmapping process.