Certain socioeconomic problems of development of the Arctic territories

The article discusses general problems of sustainable socioeconomic development on the foreign and Russian Arctic territories. We revealed examples of the Arctic territories where the best results in balanced socioeconomic development are achieved, i.e., Iceland, the northern provinces of Norway, and Sweden. The main challenges and risks for sustainable development of the Russian Arctic zone are indicated.     

The Russian Far East: Searching for a demographic development strategy

The paper analyzes the population dynamics in the Russian Far East, the economic, social and demographic factors of migration processes in the region; the consequences of migration for the social and economic development of the region, the situation in its labor market, etc.     

Asian Currency Crisis and the Generalized PPP: Evidence from the Far East

The present paper investigates the effects of the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998 on the generalized PPP between several real exchange rates of the Far East countries. Monthly log of real exchange rates of the currencies of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea vis-à-vis the US dollar and the Japanese yen during 1990–2004 are applied in the investigation. Further tests are conducted between exchange rates vis-à-vis the Thai baht. Tests are conducted for periods before and after the crisis. Results from the Johansen method of multivariate cointegration show a substantial change in the relationship between these real exchange rates before and after the Asian currency crisis. This result is found using rates based on three currencies: US dollar, yen and baht.     

西部离东部还有多远

在新的世纪，随着中国的改革与发展步入全新的发展阶段，党和国家的发展理论与发展战略创新也取得了重大突破。从全面建设小康社会战略目标的确定。到科学发展观的树立，再到构建社会主义和谐社会命题的提出，这一系列的理论创新体现了鲜明的以人为本的发展主旨和全面统筹的发展取向     

Brazilian socioeconomic development: Issues for the eighties

Since 1964 Brazil has experienced rapid economic growth, exclusionary politics and a persistently unequal distribution of income. After 1973 rapid growth was maintained only at the cost of accelerating inflation and massive foreign borrowing, while a process of political liberalization was begun. A change in economic development strategy could increase the number of jobs created per unit of capital invested, concentrate benefits on those who have least profited from the growth process to date, decrease imports, and increase the productivity of the poor. Such a strategy, the outlines of which can be found in Brazil's Third National Development Plan, makes good social as well as economic sense.     

Problems of the long-term planning of the development of a core transport network in the Far East and Baikal region

The report outlines the problems that occur during preparation of long-term plans for development of the transport infrastructure of the east of the country and are associated mainly with uncertainty of the global environment. The methodological approach is proposed, consisting in orientation of the budget capital investments for the most diversified projects that will pay off under different scenarios, and partially laying on the business the risks for those transportation projects that focus on certain exports. The need to account both direct and indirect effects of each project is emphasized.     

Modern Trends and Problems of Migration in a Russian Border Region: The Far East

The article has analyzed trends and problems in migration processes in the Far East of Russia in the 2010s. There are restrictions on population growth in the Far East due to migration. It has been determined that the implementation of modern policy decisions with regard to the Far East region does not create real prerequisites for increasing the incomes of the population. It has been proved that, in order to attract population to the Far East, it is necessary to institute economic development in the region that can increase incomes and make them comparable to other more successful federal districts.     

洋山深水港区建设与远东国际集装箱枢纽港

一、上海港现状与远东港口竞争的核心 上海港是我国大陆最大的港口.2003年货物吞吐量完成3.16亿吨;集装箱吞吐量完成1128.2万标准箱,约占长江三角洲地区港口集装箱吞吐总量的78%.今年上半年,集装箱吞吐量完成675万标准箱,同比增长29.4%,全年可望完成1400万标准箱.     

Development Trajectories of the Russian Far East: Evaluation Based on the Dynamic Model of Economic Interactions

The article discusses the possible development trajectories for the Far East formed under the influence of the policy of creating preferences for economic activities in the region. A dynamic model of economic interactions has been proposed for identifying these trajectories. Based on the model calculations, the complementarity of various incentive schemes for economic activity in the Far East is analyzed and the dependence of economic growth on the scale of the state support is assessed.     

论黑龙江省对俄罗斯远东的经贸合作

俄罗斯近年来更加重视发挥其东部地区的优势,积极发展多领域的合作.我国尤其是黑龙江省应抓住机遇,积极开拓远东市场.进一步推动中俄边境贸易,必须加强政府宏观调控,拓宽境外合作领域.     

An overview of the state and priorities of the iron and steel industry in the Russian Far East

This article considers the problems of the Russian Far East for which a new course of strategic development has been proclaimed. The growing demands of the region’s economy for diverse metal products make it necessary to initiate organizational reforms determined by the actual state of things. The reforms will include the construction of new iron and steel works and the development of a full-range iron and steel industry in the region.     

The relationship between china and Siberia/Russian Far East: Economic cooperation and security conflicts*

This paper analyzes the current relationship between China and Siberia/Russian Far East from the economic and political‐security perspectives. The relationship between China and Siberia/Russian Far East is that of cooperation and conflict. China gains natural resources and energy from Siberia/Russian Far East, while Siberia/Russian Far East secures consumer goods, food and labor to fill its shortage from China. The two regions are in an economically complementary relationship. However, they show differences in their interests in issues such as the Tuman River Development Project. If their economic cooperation could be called the “bright” side of their relationship, there exists the “dark” side of their relationship, which is the border dispute. The paper argues that as a way to reduce conflict and increase cooperation in Northeast Asia, a multilateral security/economic organization, tentatively called the “Organization for Security and Cooperation in Northeast Asia,” should soon be established.     

East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends

Countries throughout the world are experiencing changes in their population age structure, but they are particularly rapid in East Asia. During the last part of the 20th Century the region benefited from an increased concentration of population in the working ages. Population aging is now the increasing rapidly with potentially adverse economic effects. The evidence presented here shows that population aging can lead to a second demographic dividend because population aging may lead to rapid capital accumulation. This appears to have occurred in East Asia because public support systems for the elderly are smaller and because family support systems are in decline.     

Long-term development credits and socialist trade

Zusammenfassung Langfristige Entwicklungskredite und sozialistischer Au\enhandel. —Die chronischen Ungleichgewichte auf dem Comecon-Markt haben unter anderem zu betr?chtlichen langfristigen Kreditstrómen für genau bezeichnete Zwecke (long-term credits for well-defined purposes, abgek. CWDP) unter den Comecon-Mitgliedern geführt. Sozialistische Kommentare haben diese Transaktionen als nützlich für alle beteiligten Partner erkl?rt, ohne die Bedingungen für die Wirksamkeit und Nützlichkeit dieser Abmachungen n?her zu untersuchen. Darüber hinaus mu\ die sozialistische Interpretation dieser Kredite als langfristige L?sung der Ungleichgewichte als au\erordentlich kurzsichtig bezeichnet werden; CWDP-Kredite lassen die okonomischen Ursachen dieser schwierigen Entwicklungsprobleme unberührt. Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht die wichtigsten Ursachen der Ungleichgewichte und die besonderen Umst?nde der Kreditabkommen (Abschnitt I). Eine der seltenen kritischen überprüfungen durch M. Tardos stellte die heilsamen Wirkungen dieser Kredite in Frage, aber die Analyse zog aufkl?rende Schlu\folgerungen aus unzureichend und ungenau dargestellten Bedingungen. Abschnitt II enth?lt eine verbesserte und erweiterte Darstellung des Problems von Tardos. Der au\erordentlich niedrige Zinssatz für Kredite zwischen Comecon-L?ndern (Intra-CMEA-Kredite) liefert auf den ersten Blick den Beweis für eine Benachteiligung der Kreditgeber. Abschnitt III prüft die wichtigsten relevanten Grundzüge der Intra-CMEA-Kredittransaktionen und führt zu einer vorsichtigeren Bewertung der Kosten und Vorteile. Im Abschnitt IV werden schlie\lich das Problem der Ausdehnung gebundener Kredite im allgemeinen und die Frage der Vor- und Nachteile für die direkt am Comecon beteiligten L?nder ebenso wie für die Drittl?nder im besonderen erortert. Im Anhang werden die wichtigsten bekannt gewordenen Kredite und, soweit als m?glich, auch Einzelheiten über die Bedingungen der Abmachungen zusammengestellt.

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Résumé Crédits de développement à long terme et commerce extérieur socialiste. — Les déséquilibres chroniques dans le marché CAEM ont amené, entre autres, des flots remarquables de crédits à long terme pour fins bien définis (longterm credits for well-defined purposes = CWDP) entre membres du marché CAEM. Les commentaires socialistes ont considéré ces transactions avantageuses pour tous les interéssés, mais sans avoir examiné bien profondément leurs conditions d’efficacité et d’utilité. D’ailleurs, l’interprétation socialiste de ces crédits comme solution durable des déséquilibres manque, évidemment, de discernement. Les crédits CWDP ne remédient pas aux causes économiques de ces problèmes de développement bien compliqués. L’article que voici met au jour les causes les plus importantes des déséquilibres et les circonstances spéciales des accords de crédit (section I). Il est vrai qu’une étude critique rare de M. Tardos a mis en question les effets avantageux de ces crédits, mais son analyse appliqua un raisonnement clair à des conditions insuffisamment et inexactement exprimées. Section II présente une correction et une extension des problèmes de Tardos. Le taux d’intérêt extrémement bas pour les crédits entre membres du CAEM est une preuveprima facie de ce qu’il y a désavantage aux créditeurs. Section III examine les traits les plus importants des accords intra-CAEM de crédit, ce qui permet une évaluation mieux considérée des co?ts et des bénéfices. Section IV, enfin, examine la question générale des crédits fixés et s’occupe du problème des co?ts et bénéfices pour les pays qui ont part aux crédits CWDP, aussi bien que pour des tiers. Dans un appendice, une liste des crédits les plus importants qu’on conna?t est donnée avec des détails — si disponibles — des conditions des accords.

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Resumen Créditos de desarrollo a largo plazo y comercio exterior de los países socialistas. — Los desequilibrios crónicos en el mercado del COMECON han dado lugar a importantes corrientes de créditos a largo plazo para usos exactamente definidos (long-term credits for well-defined purposes = CWDP) entre los países miembros. Los comentaristas socialistas subrayan las ventajas que estas transacciones tienen para todos los países, pero no analizan los condicionantes de la eficacia y utilidad de las mismas. Además, esperar de estos créditos una solución duradera de los desequilibrios es mostrar poca perspicacia; pues los créditos CWDP no afectan a las causas económicas de estos difíciles problemas de desarrollo. El presente artículo comienza por estudiar las principales causas de los desequilibrios y las circunstancias especiales bajo las que se llegó a estos acuerdos crediticios. Es cierto que uno de los pocos análisis críticos existentes, de M. Tardos, puso en duda los efectos útiles de estos créditos, pero las conclusiones se basaban en condiciones insuficientes e inexactas. Por ello, la segunda parte del artículo contiene una presentación revisada y ampliada del problema de Tardos. El tipo de interés extraordinariamente bajo para créditos entre países miembros del COMECON demuestra que estas transacciones perjudican a los países donantes. En la tercera parte se analizan las características más importantes de dichas transacciones y se intenta una evaluación de costes y beneficios. Finalmente, en la cuarta parte, el autor discute el problema de la ampliación de creditos sujetos a un uso determinado en general, así como la cuestión de las ventajas y desventajas para los países miembros del COMECON y terceros países en particular. El anexo contiene los principales créditos conocidos y, donde es posible, los pormenores de los acuerdos correspondientes.

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Riassunto Crediti per lo sviluppo a lungo termine e commercio estero socialista. — I cronici squilibri sul mercato del Comecon hanno condotto tra i soci del Comecon, tra l’altro, a considerevoli correnti di credito a lungo termine per scopi ben definiti (long-term credits for well-defined purposes, abbrev. CWDP). Commenti socialisti hanno dichiarato utili queste transazioni per i soci partecipanti senza esaminare più da vicino le condizioni per l’efficacia e l’utilità di questi accordi. Inoltre l’interpretazione socialista di questi crediti come soluzione a lungo termine degli squilibri deve essere definita straordinariamente miope; CWDP-crediti lasciano intatte le cause economiche di questi difficili problemi di sviluppo. Il presente contributo esamina le cause più importanti degli squilibri e le condizioni particolari degli accordi di credito (capitolo I). Una delle rare verifiche critiche condotta da M. Tardos pose in dubbio gli effetti benefici di questi crediti, ma l’analisi tirò illuminanti conseguenze da condizioni insufficienti e non esattamente rappresentate. I1 capitolo II contiene un’esposizione ampliata e migliorata del problema di Tardos. Il tasso d’interesse per crediti straordinariamente basso tra i Paesi del Comecon (Intra-CMEA-crediti) fornisce a prima vista la prova di uno svantaggio per il sovventore. I1 capitolo III esamina le più importanti e rilevanti caratteristiche delle Intra-CMEA-transazioni di credito e conduce ad una più cauta valutazione dei costi e vantaggi. Nel capitolo IV infine sono discussi il problema dei crediti vincolati in generale e la questione degli svantaggi e vantaggi per i Paesi direttamente partecipanti al Comecon altrettanto come per i Paesi terzi. In appendice sono raccolti i crediti più importanti divenuti noti e, per quanto possibile, anche particolari sulle condizioni degli accordi.

     

东亚产业内贸易发展状况及原因分析

近年来,东亚地区产业内贸易发展十分迅速。本文对东亚10个主要经济体1992-2005年的产业内贸易发展状况进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,产业内贸易已经成为东亚的主要贸易形式。在各类产品中,机械和运输设备(SITC7)的产业内贸易程度最高,且提高最快。产业内贸易发展的原因在于东亚地区产业内分工的不断深化以及基于生产环节专业化分工的产品零部件贸易的迅速发展。     

Long-term development prospects of the Russian information and communications sector

This paper presents a development forecast for the Russian information and communications sector. Two scenarios-inert and innovative investment—are explored for each period. According to the results of our study, in the period from 2010 to 2030, the output of the Russian information and communications sector will increase by a factor of 3.52–4 under the investment scenario and by a factor of 2–2.5 under the inert scenario. This is due to the limited private and public resources that could be invested in the sector on a large scale, as well as to the absence of basic innovation in the area of information and communication technologies, which could have a significant economic impact and provide a basis for a new technological order. It is concluded that the information and communications sector is running out of its market expansion potential.     

Irrigation development and its socioeconomic impact on rural communities in Malawi

The ‘green revolution’ of the 1950s advocated irrigation schemes as one way of achieving food security globally. Evidence from the Likangala and Domasi irrigation schemes in Malawi suggests, however, that irrigation schemes that were developed after the pattern of the ‘green revolution’ had adverse effects on the socioeconomic status of Malawi's rural communities, disrupting local economies, exposing local farmers to water related diseases, and relocating communities away from their ancestral land without due compensation. The production of rice, expansion of rural sources of income, and growth of towns associated with irrigation schemes were limited in quality and quantity and benefited only a few privileged farmers on the schemes. This paper strongly recommends the recognition of local structures and systems, and minimal dependency on donor support, if irrigation farming is to improve the welfare of rural communities in Malawi.     

Forecast of mortgage-lending development in Russia subject to socioeconomic factors

Trends observed in mortgage lending in Russia between 2005 and 2012 are discussed in the paper, as well as their correlation with changes in the unemployment rate, one of the major indicators of socioeconomic development. The analysis is carried out at two levels, national and regional. The nationwide analysis employed an approach developed to reconcile scenario-based forecasts of the development of mortgage lending with different scenarios of unemployment forecast. It is argued that, going forward, there is a possibility of a pessimistic scenario with growing unemployment and a slowdown of growth in the mortgage debt levels. The differences in the degree of correlation between mortgage and unemployment rate by the regions of the Russian Federation, as well as factors behind them, are discussed at the regional level.