Regional currency arrangements: insights from Europe

This paper focuses on the requirements and features of a successful monetary union on the basis of the optimum currency area theory, the “logical roadmap” for integration as proposed by Balassa as well as the economic and institutional framework of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The analysis suggests that monetary union is contingent upon high economic integration and strong political commitment. However, political union is not an ex-ante requirement. Outside factors such as systemic shocks and globalization seem to speed up the pooling of sovereignty in the economic domain. A firm commitment to stability-oriented monetary and fiscal policies is a precondition for gaining credibility and trust within and outside a monetary union. Last, but not least, convergence criteria, fiscal rules and strong institutions are necessary to help ensure and monitor the participants’ compliance. However, the European experience is not a blueprint for regional integration that can be directly and entirely applied to other regions.     

The Norwegian debate on the gold standard and monetary integration in the 1870s

Abstract

The origin of the gold standard and the desire for monetary integration shared the same root, the prevailing liberal worldview of Norwegian elites. The actual timing of the final move, however, was strongly influenced by fear of foreign exchange volatility in the wake of the German monetary unification rather than the fear of inflation highlighted in earlier studies. The diminished prospect for a single “world money” after the Franco-Prussian war made monetary integration a dividing issue. In 1873, the attempt by the government to safeguard some of the advantages of integration by joining the Scandinavian Currency Union (SCU) was defeated by the parliamentary majority. The opposition was based both on a more optimistic view of the prospect of even further monetary integration and on fears of political opposition to Scandinavianism and the government. However, eighteen months later, parliament conceded and Norway joined the SCU.     

A Preconceived Formula for Sovietization: The Communist Takeover of North Korea

Abstract

This article examines an endogeneity issue within the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) theory. According to the cost-benefit analysis, we found that there are the upper and the lower bounds in the degree of monetary integration for a monetary union to be created. We also found that a country may secede from the monetary union, depending on its degree of integration. A country may also secede when production specialization is facilitated with monetary integration within a framework of the “OCA line”. We also consider the endogeneity of the “OCA Index”, and applied our analysis to the optimum number of world currencies.     

One world money, then and now

The case for monetary simplification and unification has been made since the middle of the nineteenth century. It rests on four principal arguments; reduced transaction costs; establishing credibility; preventing bad policy in other states; political integration via money. In this paper we argue that the case for monetary integration is becoming increasingly less persuasive. In making our case we posit a different concept of money to the one that underlay the nineteenth century discussions which we term “Newtonian” since it was based on the assumption of a single reference external to the state reflected in the definition of value in terms of precious metals. In the twentieth century, views of money have shifted to a more “Einsteinian” or relativistic conception. Measures of value that move relative to each other are helpful in terms of dealing with large shifts in relative prices that affect different countries very differently. In the current age of globalization, “Einsteinian” money is capable of accommodating shifts that were politically destructive in the “Newtonian” world.     

FINANCIAL AND MONETARY AUTONOMY AND INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND THE OTHER SACU COUNTRIES

The paper uses cointegration and error correction modelling techniques together with tests of weak exogeneity, and monthly interest rates for the period 1990 to 2005, to examine the degree of financial and monetary autonomy and interdependence between South Africa and the other Southern African Customs, Union (SACU) countries. The results reveal a high level of dependence of the other SACU countries' financial systems on South Africa's financial system, which suggests that a monetary unification with a single central bank (South African Reserve Bank) and monetary policy for the union is feasible.     

Convergence of EMU Equity Portfolios

This paper demonstrates that, after integration, equity portfolios of countries that joined the European Monetary Union have converged at faster rate than those of NON EMU countries. This outcome can be interpreted as a combination of the convergence of inflation rates and the convergence of investment barriers. On the one hand, the common monetary policy might have driven a stronger comovement in inflation rates, leading to increasingly similar hedging strategies among member countries. On the other hand, exposure to the common currency might have homogenized bilateral investment barriers, thus inducing increasingly similar portfolio allocations among member countries. We find that the comovement of inflation rates has not significantly increased after EMU inception, pointing toward an exclusive role for convergence in investment barriers.     

The determinants of increasing equity market comovement: economic or financial integration?

This paper investigates to what extent the substantial increase in exposures of local European equity market returns to global shocks is mainly due to a convergence in cash flows (“economic integration”), to a convergence in discount rates (“financial integration”), or to both. We find that this increased exposure is nearly entirely due to increasing discount-rate betas. This finding is robust to alternative ways of calculating discount-rate and cash-flow shocks.     

Exchange rate volatility and first-time entry by multinational firms

The model and related empirical examination in this paper demonstrate one reason why previous studies document both positive and negative correlations between exchange rate volatility and observed levels of foreign direct investment. Using a simple model of cross-border mergers and acquisitions, it argues that the source of the volatility is important in resolving the puzzle. An empirical analysis of mergers and acquisitions by individual firms reveal that first-time foreign direct investment is discouraged by monetary volatility originating from the source-country, but can be encouraged by monetary volatility originating in the host country, especially when compared to domestic investment or expansion by existing multinationals. The regressions also reveal a large and positive “euro effect” on the number of first-time cross-border mergers within the European Monetary Union, even when controlling for domestic merger activity.     

China's Free Trade Ports: Effective Action Against the Threat of De‐globalization

With sluggish external demand and increasing trade protectionism by the USA and the European Union, China is facing severe challenges in implementing its deeper, ongoing reforms. To respond actively to such challenges, the Communist Party of China's 19th National Congress proposed to “promote a new pattern of all‐round opening up.” In particular, the establishment of free trade ports is considered an important means to realize deeper integration with the world economy. This paper discusses the background, the motivation, the possible challenges as well as a feasible path for the successful implementation of free trade ports in China. Based on the international experience, the construction of free trade ports in China requires freer trade in goods, high mobility of talent and free capital flow.     

REER Imbalances and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the Proposed West African Monetary Union

With the spectre of the euro crisis hunting embryonic monetary unions, we use a dynamic model of a small open economy to analyse real effective exchange rate (REER) imbalances and examine whether the movements in the aggregate real exchange rates are consistent with the underlying macroeconomic fundamentals in the proposed West African Monetary Union (WAMU). Using both country‐oriented and WAMU panel‐based specifications, we show that the long‐run behaviour of the REERs can be explained by fluctuations in the terms of trade, productivity, investment, debt and openness. While there is still significant evidence of cross‐country differences in the relationship between underlying macroeconomic fundamentals and corresponding REERs, the embryonic WAMU has a stable error correction mechanism, with four of the five cointegration relations having signs that are consistent with the predictions from economic theory. Policy implications are discussed, and the conclusions of the analysis are a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate over whether the creation of a sustainable monetary union should precede convergence in macroeconomic fundamentals that determine REER adjustments.     

Interest-Rate Spread and Public-Debt Dynamics in a Two-Country Monetary-Union Portfolio Model

Tracking, monitoring and steering the evolution of public debt over time will be a major policy challenge for almost all governments in the advanced countries in the years to come, in particular for those belonging to the European Monetary Union. In this paper I study public debt dynamics in a two-country monetary union where a representative, risk-averse wealth-owner optimizes his/her portfolio of sovereign bonds issued in the common currency. I obtain two main results with respect to the standard country-by-country approach. First, the interest-rate spread between the two countries is endogenized as the higher-debt country pays a risk premium which is proportional to the level of its own debt with respect to the debt of the other. Second, its debt dynamic path becomes nonlinear and dependent on the evolution of the other country’s debt. The most important policy implication is that “dynamic interdependence” is not fully considered in the implementation of EMU fiscal rules, but it may may jeopardize their goal of convergence and stability of debt stocks.     

Do Monetary Policy Announcements Affect Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility of Returns? Some Evidence from High‐Frequency Intra‐Day South African Data

This paper examines the temporal effect of domestic monetary policy surprises on both returns and volatility of returns of the South African rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate. The analysis in this “event study” proceeds using intra‐day minute‐by‐minute exchange rate data, repo rate data from the South African Reserve Bank's scheduled monetary policy announcements, and market consensus repo rate forecasts. A carefully selected sample over the period August 2003 to November 2017 ensures that the change in monetary policy is exogenous to the exchange rate. We find statistically and economically significant responses in intra‐day high‐frequency South African rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate returns and volatility of exchange rate returns to domestic interest rate surprises, but anticipated changes have no bearing on exchange rate returns and their volatility. The empirical results also indicate that there is an instantaneous response of the rand/dollar exchange rate to monetary policy surprises and that monetary policy news is an important determinant of the exchange rate until at least 42 minutes after the pronouncement – suggesting a high degree of market “efficiency” in its mechanical sense (although not necessarily in the deeper economic‐informational sense) in processing this information. Essentially, the asymmetric GARCH results exhibit no leverage effects – positive and negative information shocks have symmetric effects on conditional variance.     

PRICE FLEXIBILITY IN THE COMMON MONETARY AREA

This paper examines the presence of flexibility within the common monetary area (CMA) as compared to a selected group of Southern African Development Co-operation (SADC) countries. The study tests for the readiness of SADC countries towards macroeconomic convergence and monetary unification. The methods followed examine the concept of (relative) purchasing power parity and test for the speed of adjustment of prices after a shock. The results suggest that the level of price flexibility is high within the CMA as opposed to the control group. The implication is that the CMA arrangement has managed to foster price flexibility among its member countries. Furthermore, Botswana could be a potential candidate for a monetary union with the CMA group.     

AN ANALYSIS OF MACRO‐ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE IN SADC1

One of the goals of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is macro‐economic convergence leading to monetary unification and a single central bank. This goal is aligned with the goal of the African Union to build a monetary union for the entire continent in stages, starting with each of the subregions, of which SADC forms one important region. Despite views to the contrary, the current degree of compliance with the Maastricht criteria for convergence and membership of the European Union, shows that the challenges facing a SADC monetary union would not be insurmountable if the convergence criteria are viewed as permanent goals, rather than preconditions.     

Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: A Latin American perspective

During the last few years there has been a renewed analysis in currency unions as a form of monetary arrangement. This new interest has been largely triggered by the Euro experience. Scholars and policy makers have asked about the optimal number of currencies in the world economy. They have analyzed whether different countries satisfy the traditional “optimal currency area” criteria. These include, among other: (a) the synchronization of the business cycle; (b) the degree of factor mobility; and (c) the extent of trade and financial integration. In this paper I analyze the desirability of a monetary union from a Latin American perspective. First, I review the existing literature on the subject. Second, I use a large data set to analyze the evidence on economic performance in currency union countries. I investigate these countries’ performance on four dimensions: (a) whether countries without a national currency have a lower occurrence of “sudden stop” episodes; (b) whether they have a lower occurrence of “current account reversal” episodes; (c) what is their ability to absorb international terms of trade shocks; and (d) what is their ability to absorb “sudden stops” and “current account reversals” shocks. I find that belonging to a currency union has not lower the probability of facing a sudden stop or a current account reversal. I also find that external shocks have been amplified in currency union countries. The degree of amplification is particularly large when compared to flexible exchange rate countries.     

Europe’s hard fix: the Euro area

One of the most important economic policy issues is the selection of exchange rate regime. The possible choices range from the hard peg to a freely floating nominal exchange rate. Since the early 1990s a move towards the two corners of the exchange rate regime spectrum has been observed, especially in Europe with the creation of EMU. The move towards the corners is discussed from the perspective of Mundell’s “impossible trinity” which states that among the three desirable objectives (1) stabilisation of the exchange rate, (2) free international capital mobility, and (3) an effective monetary policy oriented towards domestic goals, only two can be mutually consistent. Issues related to economic integration and EMU are reviewed, focusing on the famous question: Does one size fit all? Since monetary union raises some interesting issues of political nature, not present in other exchange rate arrangements, the paper ends with a discussion about some political aspects of monetary union.     

Credibility of European economic convergence

Credibility of European Economic Convergence. — The authors analyze economic convergence and its relation to European real interest rate differentials using a clustering method on seven macroeconomic key variables for 1979–1995. The results indicate that monetary convergence has progressed considerably but that there is hardly any real convergence in the EU. They also perform pooled nominal and real interest rate regressions with the individual cluster indicators as explanatory variables. The authors find significant positive effects of external (current account) and internal (unemployment ratios, government finance) imbalances on real interest rates. They also group countries according to economic reputation and find that real indicators remain significant for the high-reputation countries.     

Projecting the development of the international transport corridor of the Customs Union between Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia

The paper analyzes the basic tendencies and directions of international freight traffic within the Custom Union of the Republic of Belarus, Republic of Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation. The “bottlenecks” are determined in terms of the potential loading level of the international transport corridor of integration.     

Fiscal and monetary policy in a monetary union: Credible inflation targets or monetized debt?

Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union: Credible Inflation Targets or Monetized Debt? —The paper examines the interrelationship between fiscal and monetary policy in a two-country monetary union. The worst scenario occurs when an independent central bank sets the nominal interest rate and responds to rising government debt/GDP ratios by monetization. The result is high inflation, high debt/GDP ratios and a large public sector. Government debt and inflation are contained if the governments bear sole responsibility for solvency, but the public sector remains excessively large. The best scenario occurs if the central bank removes the incentive for the governments to engineer surprise inflation by credible inflation targeting.     

Regional monetary integration in the presence of two large countries: What modality makes sense for East Asia?

This paper analyzes the modalities of East Asian monetary integration by taking note of the relevance of two large economies, one outside the region (the United States) and one inside (Japan), for monetary policy making. Within the framework of a three-country model, it derives the social welfare of two regional economies and uses numerical calibration to show how it crucially depends on the specific modality of monetary integration. By using parameters obtained from the actual macroeconomic data for 1981–1996, we find that the smaller regional economy (Korea) always benefits from monetary integration, while the large regional economy (Japan) benefits from monetary integration only when it is asymmetric (such as a peg to a common basket or yenization), so that it can continue to enjoy some monetary autonomy. Symmetric integration, while not a viable option for East Asia in the short run, may become feasible in the long run if economic integration deepens sufficiently to produce convergence in economic structure and synchronization of business cycles.