Projecting World Economic Growth: The Contribution of Information Technology

This paper introduces a new framework for projecting potential world economic growth, taking into account the critical contribution of information and technology. We apply this framework to project the potential growth of labor productivity, GDP, and per capita GDP over the ten-year period 2006-2016 for 122 economies. Relative to historical growth for the period 1996-2006, our base-case projections are slightly higher for productivity growth, but lower for growth of GDP and GDP per capita. By comparison with the World Bank forecasts, our projections are less optimistic for all groups of economies except for Eastern Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa. Our projections are also below the Goldman Sachs forecasts for all economies except for the U.S.     

启迪创新研究院为中国城市创新创业环境“体检”——《中国城市创新创业环境排行榜》子榜发布

清华大学启迪创新研究院通过“政、产、学、研、金、介、贸、媒”等软硬环境指标对GDP过千亿、人均GDP排名前100的城市进行创新创业环境对比分析。以期为区域政府完善创新创业环境提供借鉴和参考。     

A Conjoint Analysis of Demand for the Japanese Mobile Phone Market

The Japanese mobile phone market is 55.8% of the total market in the telecommunications industry. This paper is a conjoint analysis on Japanese consumer preferences for Japanese mobile phones. The analysis in this paper is presented after a questionnaire survey was given to 3,412 Japanese mobile phone users over 15 years old. The results of this analysis show that a decline in the price of mobile phone sets, an increase in transmission speed, the application of family discounts, and the continuation of contracts with the same telecommunication companies, all raise demand for mobile networks. In addition, the author found that user groups of NTT DOCOMO, au (KDDI), Softbank, and MVNO have different utility functions. According to the estimation of Mean Willingness to Pay (MWTP) in this paper, suppliers of mobile phone networks may be able to optimize and maximize demand by adjusting attributions and their levels.     

Research Note: Analysis of the Characteristics of Victims in Information Security Incident Damages: The Case of Japanese Internet Users

In this article, the authors investigate the attributes of victims in information security incident damages for the purpose of reducing the damages. The Information-Technology Promotion Agency, Japan, in 2010, conducted an Internet survey targeted to Japanese Internet home users entitled, “Survey of awareness toward information security incidents” that is used in this article. Using micro data collected from this survey, they employed multinomial logit regression analysis to show factors affecting the user’s experience of the incidents of damage through particular incidents. They concluded that the overconfidence regarding information security knowledge increased the probability for phishing and spoofing.     

The Effect of Information Communication Technology and Corporate Organizational Reforms on Productivity in Japan: Firm- level Evidence

Our main objective in this paper is to understand how Japanese firms can increase productivity by utilizing Information and Communication Technology (ICT). E-commerce, BPO (Business Process Outsourcing), and SCM (Supply Chain Management) are popular in Japan, so a new type of ICT might offer an opportunity for Japanese firms to change current business relations or to start up new ones. The novelty of this paper is in its empirical study of the combination of ICT promotion and a variety of business organizational changes needed to discover which type of business organizational change is suitable for raising productivity in Japan. For workplace organization within firms, we discuss the decentralization or centralization of decision-making power and the flattening of the corporate hierarchy. For business relational changes, we discuss the outsourcing of the business process and the start up of new business relations. Our main result is that in general, the promotion of ICT has better effects in reforms related to changes in business relations among business partners, rather than to reforms within a firm. Starting up new business relations that require planning and R&D show the best chances of raising productivity using ICT promotion.     

Facebook e-Portfolios for Career Education Focused on Japanese Employment Practice: A Case Study

The authors propose the effectiveness of Facebook functions in the promotion of career education. In recent years, career education in Japanese universities has differed slightly from that in other countries. Japanese students are trained to be competitive in the job-hunting process; they need to obtain the technical skills and knowledge necessary to pass a company entrance examination or a university oral interview. This practice is in stark contrast with the intrinsic meaning of vocational/career education, which is the process by which students acquire the abilities and independence required by a certain industry. This meaning is manifested in the purpose of the career education program of Hokkai-Gakuen University’s Faculty of Business Administration. The program’s purpose is to foster independence in its students rather than the acquisition of skills for the job-hunting process. The professional independence of every student is important to their career development after graduating from the university. On the other hand, it is known that e-portfolios generally encourage students to record and assess their activities. To promote the activities that students tackle in the program, we introduced an e-portfolio using Facebook. This study shows the characteristics and achievements of our e-portfolio.     

The Effectiveness of Social Media for Business Activities in Japanese Firms

A large number of firms use social media for various business activities. This paper clarifies how social media has become effective to sales in Japanese firms. To this purpose, the following are addressed: (i) whether social media is useful for company activities, (ii) what kinds of business activities are affected using social media, and (iii) how social media improves the final outcomes of sales for firms. This study uses data of business activities and social media conducted in 2014. Probit analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM) are employed. Probit analysis clarifies the relationships between the effects of social media and its use in sales. The SEM model clarifies the relationships among the effects of social media use in business. In the SEM, a model is examined by taking sales caused by use of social media as an explained variable, while the explanatory variables are the first and intermediate effects of social media. The results indicate that social media is effective for business activities such as promoting sales. This study may help to promote social media in Japanese firms.     

Investment Literacy and Individual Investor Biases: Survey Evidence in the Japanese Stock Market

In this paper, we analyzed the results of our survey on Japanese stock investor’s asset risk management and empirically examined the effect of their investment literacy on their decision-making biases. This paper revealed that the higher the investors’ investment literacy, the lower their overconfidence bias. This suggests that high investment literacy can prevent investors from being influenced by an overconfidence bias and consequently making biased decisions in investment. Therefore, efforts to improve investors’ investment literacy by enhancing social systems such as investment education could be beneficial in guiding investors to make unbiased investment decisions.     

中关村核心区：创新驱动托起“绿色GDP”

多管齐下打造绿色”GDP”．一直是中关村核心区追逐的梦想．近年来也切实付诸于行动。2013年9月30日上午，中共中央政治局以实施创新驱动发展战略为题．首次将集体学习“课堂”搬到红墙外．在中关村举行第九次集体学习。习近平在主持学习时强调，实施创新驱动发展战略决定着中华民族前途命运。习近平指出，     

Technological Progress and the Wage Growth of Older Japanese Workers

Declining birth and mortality rates are leading to population aging throughout the OECD countries. This paper examines one possible consequence for national productivity – we ask: Are older workers able to take advantage of new technologies as effectively as their younger counterparts? Using Japanese data for 1973-2000, we find that if we ignore job tenure, workers beyond the age of 50 do not seem as able to benefit from total factor productivity growth as their younger colleagues. However, Japanese workers past age 50 move to lesser paying positions more frequently than is common elsewhere, and we believe that the complete answer to our question depends upon whether an inability to keep up with new technologies induces late-in-career job changes or whether the changes follow, in practice, from other factors.     

在日企就餐

2010年底,我随国内生产企业考察团去日本九州磋商技术合作事宜。第一天如约前往。双方交谈兴趣甚浓,不知不觉到中午十二点,技术课长田中先生盛邀我们在职工食堂吃工作餐,有机会见证了日本企业员工的就餐情况。     

绿色财富：从名义GDP到绿色GDP

什么是财富？《辞海》对财富的定义是：具有价值的东西。由英国著名经济学家戴维·W·皮尔斯主编的《现代经济学词典》对财富下的定义是：“任何有市场价值并且可用来交换货币或商品的东西都可被看作是财富。它包括实物与实物资产、金融资产。以及可以生产收入的个人技能，当这些东西可以在市场上换取商品或货币时，它们被认为是财富。财富可以分成两种主要类型：     

Subcontracting Structure and Productivity in the Japanese Software Industry

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the factors determining the productivity of the software industry in Japan, using individual data from the Survey of the State of the Information Service Industry conducted in August 2006 by IPA (Information-Technology Promotion Agency, Japan). This paper focuses on the relationship between the subcontracting structure and productivity in the Japanese software industry. Software enterprises are classified as prime contractors, intermediate subcontractors, end-contractors, and independent enterprise. A comparison of their productivity levels reveals that intermediate subcontractors are the least productive. However, it is observed that the intermediate subcontractors possessing a high quality of human resources measured the proportion of employees passing the Information Technology Engineers Examination (ITEE), or the intermediate subcontractors adopting the IT skill standard which defines the skills for IT human resources clearly and systematically, has a high productivity level. It can raise the productivity in software industry as a whole.     

A Microsimulation Model for Projections of Japanese Socioeconomic Structure

The Integrated Analytical Model for Household Simulation (INAHSIM) is a microsimulation model for the Japanese population that was first developed in the 1980s as a tool for household simulation. This study attempted to improve the conventional INAHSIM in order to construct a more comprehensive alternative that incorporates a larger number of social and economic elements. It also overcame the problem for simulation—the lack of kinship relations in the initial population—by imputing parent-child relationships between those parents and children who do not live together. This paper provides an overview of INAHSIM and adds certain details of the imputation that is essential for simulating the life event of “adult children resettling to care for their aged parents.” In addition, I will show the importance of the said life event in Japan by comparing the difference in the family type of elderly people between its future distribution with or without this life event. Finally, I will discuss the future possibilities for research on microsimulation models that will play an important role in policy making.     

Research Note: Statistical Analysis on E-mail Magazines used by Japanese Prime Ministers

This paper presents a multiple regression analysis of the relationship between the frequencies of political keywords on cabinet e-mail magazines and cabinet approval ratings from the period of April 2001 to September 2009 in Japan. The authors found that Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was the only Prime Minister who utilized a cabinet e-mail magazine as a strong political tool. Other prime ministers from the Liberal Democratic Party failed to utilize this type of magazine as a tool. In addition, we concluded that Japanese voters did not highly value the Koizumi Cabinet’s economic performance, but highly evaluated its message in the electronic information space of political economy.     

Dynamic Microsimulation Modeling for Policy Support: An Application to Belgium and possibilities for Japan

This paper provides an overview of dynamic microsimulation modeling as well as its recent developments. It then discusses in detail a recent trend in microsimulation research, which uses alignment methodologies to simulate microsimulation models in conjunction with macro-economic models. The goal of this ??top down-integrated approach?? is to jointly assess the budgetary costs of demographic ageing and pension reform, as well as their consequences on the adequacy of pensions. This paper then discusses, also in detail, how such an integrated approach using shared demographic and macroeconomic assumptions has been developed in Belgium. It describes the dynamic microsimulation model MIDAS, highlighting how it aligns to the simulation results of the semi-aggregate model MALTESE. Finally, this paper suggests that the joint assessment using the joint application of two similar models might be useful to assess pension reform in the Japanese context.     

The Effect of Changes in Nuptiality Behavior after the 1980s on the Poverty Rate for the Elderly in Japan -Analysis Using a Dynamic Microsimulation Model-

The social security system in Japan was developed under the premise that postwar families represented the most common type of family. A “postwar famil” refers to a family in which: (1) men and women are married; (2) husbands work as regular employees and wives are dependent homemakers; and (3) husbands and wives seldom get divorced. Therefore, the social security system is particularly generous towards dependent wives and widows. However, these premises are no longer valid because Japanese nuptiality behavior has completely changed since the 1980s. Marriage rates have decreased and divorce rates have significantly increased. Nevertheless, society still suffers from a wage inequality between men and women. As a result, the number of never-married or divorced elderly women will increase, and these women might face a serious poverty risk in the future. In this study, the author makes simulations of the living arrangements and poverty rates for the elderly in Japan and evaluates the effect of changes in nuptiality behavior on these poverty rates using a dynamic microsimulation model. The simulation results indicate that changes in nuptiality behavior will affect the poverty rate for elderly women, but not for elderly men.     

撤销街道办是财政减负的必须

因为缺少真正意义上的公民自治组织．公民自治精神得不到发育和培养的土壤,民主意识甚至在社区范围内都无法进行像样的实际训练。这将日益造成城市社区的碎片化和居民对公共事务的冷漠化。     

The Effects of Proposals for Basic Pension Reform on the Income Distribution of the Elderly in Japan

The aging of the population in Japan is a serious problem, and the reform of the public pension scheme is a major political issue. Although the 2004 pension reform was enforced to ensure a sustainable pension system in such an aging society, people remain quite apprehensive about the pension system. Consequently, various sectors have created new proposals for pension reform to overcome these problems, and it has become a recent policy debate. The objective of this article is to prepare projections for the income distribution of households containing elderly people using the Japanese microsimulation model, INAHSIM (Integrated Analytical Model for Household Simulation), and to evaluate the effect of the proposals on the living standards of the elderly. According to the simulation results, the problem of very low pension amounts for the elderly does not appear to be growing. However, changes in co-resident families of the elderly, such as the increase in the number of people living alone, may cause a decline in their standard of living. The author points out the problems of the previously proposed reform plans and proposes an alternative reform plan based on the perspective used in this paper.     

Agent-based simulation approach for disaster rescue using active RFID

After the 2004 earthquake in Japan’sNiigata Prefecture, there were many difficulties finding the victims. The earthquake caused a wired network disconnection. In addition, fixed-phone and cell-phone service systems crashed due to the rapid increase in the volume of communications. The systems’ collapse was due to the large number of users who were worried about the safety of their relatives. The same situation happened during Hurricane Katrina in the USA. Reflecting on these situations, the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is trying to adopt several methods to correct these communications problems. Although these methods have not been disclosed precisely yet, we think that a predominant goal of one of the methods is most likely to find victims using RFIDs (Radio Frequency Identification) with computer sensors. To do this, the RFID method would have to be incorporated in the following ways: 1) by scattering sensor devices from helicopters when a large-scale disaster such as an earthquake occurs, 2) by making RFIDs self-organized into a network, and 3) by making the self-organized network pinpoint the position of victims. A certain amount of field-testing may be necessary to confirm the effects of this plan. However, such testing requires a great amount of time and high costs. Therefore, we adopt an agent-based simulation for such a test. In this paper, we pay specific attention to a simple and assured algorithm for discovering victims using RFIDs. First, we explain our method to confirm the location of victims. Second, we explain our method for pinpointing the position of victims using trilateration. Finally, we present our simulation results.