The Norwegian debate on the gold standard and monetary integration in the 1870s

Abstract

The origin of the gold standard and the desire for monetary integration shared the same root, the prevailing liberal worldview of Norwegian elites. The actual timing of the final move, however, was strongly influenced by fear of foreign exchange volatility in the wake of the German monetary unification rather than the fear of inflation highlighted in earlier studies. The diminished prospect for a single “world money” after the Franco-Prussian war made monetary integration a dividing issue. In 1873, the attempt by the government to safeguard some of the advantages of integration by joining the Scandinavian Currency Union (SCU) was defeated by the parliamentary majority. The opposition was based both on a more optimistic view of the prospect of even further monetary integration and on fears of political opposition to Scandinavianism and the government. However, eighteen months later, parliament conceded and Norway joined the SCU.     

Why didn't Canada have a banking crisis in 2008 (or in 1930, or 1907, or …)?

The financial crisis of 2008 engulfed the banking system of the US and many large European countries. Canada was a notable exception. In this article we argue that the structure of financial systems is path‐dependent. The relative stability of the Canadian banks in the recent crisis compared to the US in our view reflected the original institutional foundations laid in place in the early nineteenth century in the two countries. The Canadian concentrated banking system that had evolved by the end of the twentieth century had absorbed the key sources of systemic risk—the mortgage market and investment banking—and was tightly regulated by one overarching regulator. In contrast, the relatively weak, fragmented, and crisis‐prone US banking system that had evolved since the early nineteenth century led to the rise of securities markets, investment banks, and money market mutual funds (the shadow banking system) combined with multiple competing regulatory authorities. The consequence was that the systemic risk that led to the crisis of 2007–8 was not contained.     

The international political economy of early modern copper mercantilism: Rent seeking and copper money in Sweden 1624–1776

In 1624–1776 Sweden minted intrinsic value copper coins, alongside silver coins. One purpose behind introducing the copper standard was to use its monopoly position at the European markets to manipulate the international copper prices, implementing a kind of copper mercantilism. This paper presents a model of an early modern copper monopolist that could price discriminate between two different uses for copper: copper for export and copper for minting. The paper concludes that authorities did not completely conform to this rent-seeking model, since there were also other considerations behind minting policy, such as providing a stable monetary system. The model shows that under profit-maximisation minting should have been even higher and the price of copper money lower, but at periods minting and prices approached the optimal state. In the 17th century, the market for copper money was probably too small relative the huge copper production, but by the 1720s and 1730s, when copper production had declined, the copper standard functioned more smoothly.     

A Preconceived Formula for Sovietization: The Communist Takeover of North Korea

Abstract

This article examines an endogeneity issue within the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) theory. According to the cost-benefit analysis, we found that there are the upper and the lower bounds in the degree of monetary integration for a monetary union to be created. We also found that a country may secede from the monetary union, depending on its degree of integration. A country may also secede when production specialization is facilitated with monetary integration within a framework of the “OCA line”. We also consider the endogeneity of the “OCA Index”, and applied our analysis to the optimum number of world currencies.     

Brussels on a single money

This review article discusses the recent document titled “One Market, One Money” in which the European Commission develops its case for European monetary union. After examining the monetary issues as such, the article focuses on the reasons for the Commission's very worried attitude about fiscal policy autonomy. The closing section considers the problem of the transition to a single money. Attention is also called to the issue of a lender of last resort.     

Central Bank Policy in a More Perfect Financial System

Financial innovation increases markets' liquidity and provides economic agents with new instruments to better handle risks, but it reduces the efficacy of monetary policy while strengthening the logic and force of the “unholy trinity”. Increased liquidity of financial markets and increased leverage of financial positions imply that speculators can attack unsustainable fixed exchange rates faster and more powerfully than ever. The rapid innovation of new financial instruments in these markets also implies the futility to “throw sand in the wheels” through regulation or the introduction of transaction taxes. The higher asset substitutability generated by the emergence of derivatives makes the definition of “money,” particularly of broad monetary aggregates, increasingly difficult. In a more complete financial market system central banks find it harder to predict the effect of a given monetary impulse on real output and employment with any reasonable precision. Discretionary monetary policies aimed at output and employment become more uncertain. Consequently, central banks should focus on the long-run goal of price stability.     

Inflation and globalisation: The Tawney Lecture 2022

The paper examines the causal relationships and interdependence between inflation and globalisation over centuries: in the sixteenth century, in the age of Spanish silver; then in the first age of modern globalisation from in the middle of the nineteenth century; and finally in the new globalisation that took off in the 1970s. In the latter cases, inflation was a response to a negative supply shock, and eventually generated policy decisions on economic opening. Both recent globalisations may be explained as technologically driven, and some of the most important productivity gains involved the cost of transport, but the fundamental innovations substantially pre-dated the moment at which they were economically transformative. Scarcity dramatically changes relative prices, but not the overall price level. Initially inflation became a policy solution, an attractive way of meeting the challenges of scarcity, but then its increasing costs became apparent, and more, rather than less, global integration looked like a way of reducing costs and minimising social pressure. Policy choices were involved in generating the globalised world: not only the removal of impediments to commerce, but also a consensus around a stable and internationally applicable monetary framework, whether the gold standard in the late nineteenth century or a modern inflation targeting regime in the late twentieth century.     

The liquidity trap: Japan, 1996–2001 versus the United States, 1933–1940

Keynes’ “liquidity trap” rarely occurs. But when it does, it has a tremendously adverse effect on the economy concerned. Such was the case of the United States in the 1930s and now that of contemporary Japan. In a liquidity trap, monetary policy pushes the money interest rate to the zero level while expanding the money supply (M1) at a faster rate than nominal GDP. Conventional theory explains this phenomenon as the result of money demand that becomes infinitely interest-elastic at the zero rate, rendering ineffective the rapidly expanding money supply established by the monetary authorities.In this paper, we show that the liquidity trap is a multifaceted phenomenon not limited to the money market. It involves the bank loan market, the bank deposit market, and the bond market interacting together. Of these, the most important is the bank loan market and the least important is the bank deposit market, whose deposit supply becomes horizontal at the zero rate. They are met by relatively interest-inelastic bank loan demand and bank deposit demand. Hence, the causality is completely reversed from the conventional understanding.We give empirical evidence in support of our theory based on data from the United States, 1933–1940 and Japan, 1996–2001. Far apart in time and space, the two cases are remarkably alike and, hence, provide strong supporting evidence.     

Monetary Policy in the Industrial World: Reflections on some Basic Issues

Abstract

This paper is a general assessment of monetary policy in major OECD countries during the 1990s. Within a simple policy framework that combines money growth, nominal income, and an open economy IS-LM type Mundell-Fleming model, the paper discusses the major strands in the conduct of monetary policy in developed industrial economies. It throws light on such problems as “rules versus discretion”, management of exchange rates, the effect of monetary changes on income and prices, and the rupture of monetary policy with other instruments of economic policy that also affect the economy.     

Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: A Latin American perspective

During the last few years there has been a renewed analysis in currency unions as a form of monetary arrangement. This new interest has been largely triggered by the Euro experience. Scholars and policy makers have asked about the optimal number of currencies in the world economy. They have analyzed whether different countries satisfy the traditional “optimal currency area” criteria. These include, among other: (a) the synchronization of the business cycle; (b) the degree of factor mobility; and (c) the extent of trade and financial integration. In this paper I analyze the desirability of a monetary union from a Latin American perspective. First, I review the existing literature on the subject. Second, I use a large data set to analyze the evidence on economic performance in currency union countries. I investigate these countries’ performance on four dimensions: (a) whether countries without a national currency have a lower occurrence of “sudden stop” episodes; (b) whether they have a lower occurrence of “current account reversal” episodes; (c) what is their ability to absorb international terms of trade shocks; and (d) what is their ability to absorb “sudden stops” and “current account reversals” shocks. I find that belonging to a currency union has not lower the probability of facing a sudden stop or a current account reversal. I also find that external shocks have been amplified in currency union countries. The degree of amplification is particularly large when compared to flexible exchange rate countries.     

Intra- and international commodity market integration in the Atlantic economy, 1800-1913

In this paper, the course of intra- and international market integration in the nineteenth century Atlantic economy is investigated. The most fundamental contribution of the paper is in consistently sketching the course of commodity market integration over the long run. Additionally, this study suggests that the nineteenth century has been somewhat misread in terms of the development of markets as the evidence, especially on price convergence, points to dramatic improvements in intra- and international market integration in the years prior to the mid-century. A collective task for economic historians, then, is to link these developments with the revolutionary commercial and technological developments of the post-1850 period.     

Credit Markets and the Propagation of Korea's 1997 Financial Crisis

We consider the roles of monetary shocks and tightening credit market conditions in the transmission of South Korea's 1997 financial crisis to the real sector, and compare the relative impacts of these factors on production in light and heavy industries. Using structural regression equations, vector autoregressive models, and the accompanying dynamic forecasts, we find that the ratio of commercial bills dishonored to the total value of bills to be cleared can explain the decline in industrial production more fully than either the decline in the real stock of money or the spread between yields on corporate and government bonds. These results are most emphatic in light industry, for which small and medium-sized firms account for more than 70% of the total value added. Since fluctuations in the dishonored bills ratio may reflect components related to increases in the cost of credit intermediation and its effect on small and medium-sized firms more precisely than the corporate-government bond spread, we interpret the evidence as suggestive of a credit channel and “flight to quality” at work.     

Monitoring in Multiagent Organizations*

This paper studies how to assign “monitors” to productive agents in order to generate signals about the agents' performance that are most useful from a contracting perspective. We show that if signals generated by the same monitor are negatively (positively) correlated, then the optimal monitoring assignment will be “focused” (“dispersed”). This holds because dispersed monitoring allows the firm to better utilize relative performance evaluation. On the other hand, if each monitor communicates only an aggregated signal to the principal, then focused monitoring is always optimal since aggregation undermines relative performance evaluation. We also study team‐based compensation and randomized monitoring assignments. In particular, we show that the firm can gain from randomizing the monitoring assignment, compared with the optimal linear deterministic contract. Furthermore, under randomization, the conditional expected utility for the agent is higher when the agent is not monitored compared with the case where the agent is monitored. That is, the chance of being monitored serves as a “stick” rather than a “carrot”.     

The economics of convergence: Towards monetary union in Europe

The Economics of Convergence: Towards Monetary Union in Europe. —In this paper, the literature on monetary integration has been surveyed in order to discover the economic rationale of the Maastricht convergence requirements. The traditional theory of optimum currency areas is silent on the need for Maastricht-type convergence requirements. Similarly, the “new” view of monetary integration using credibility concepts cannot easily be used to justify these convergence requirements. It is also argued that the dynamics of the convergence requirements will almost certainly lead to a “Great Divide” of the European Union. The paper concludes that less emphasis should be put on prior convergence conditions and more on strengthening the functioning of the future monetary institutions in the Union.     

Causes of Inflation in China： Inflation Expectations

This paper argues that the main causes of inflation in China since the early 21st century are changes in the public's inflation expectations. The conventional wisdom, the quantity theory of money, may not be adequate to capture the relationship between price changes and money supply growth, as the economic system evolves and people's income and wealth grow. An examination of China's GDP deflator and broad money supply relative to nominal GDP shows that the relationship between the two series is relatively weak. A further examination of China's monthly CPI series over the period 2001–2010 reveals that the autoregressive models are a better fit than the moving average models, which suggests that the role of CPI expectations has been significant and important. Because of the importance of inflation expectations in CPI movement, we believe the Central Bank's monetary policy that targets CPI inflation should emphasize the use of policy instruments that have direct and strong communication links with the public. Quantitative measures would have their own use, but their effectiveness would be unlikely to match that of interest rate measures, especially from a short‐term perspective.     

Regional currency arrangements: insights from Europe

This paper focuses on the requirements and features of a successful monetary union on the basis of the optimum currency area theory, the “logical roadmap” for integration as proposed by Balassa as well as the economic and institutional framework of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The analysis suggests that monetary union is contingent upon high economic integration and strong political commitment. However, political union is not an ex-ante requirement. Outside factors such as systemic shocks and globalization seem to speed up the pooling of sovereignty in the economic domain. A firm commitment to stability-oriented monetary and fiscal policies is a precondition for gaining credibility and trust within and outside a monetary union. Last, but not least, convergence criteria, fiscal rules and strong institutions are necessary to help ensure and monitor the participants’ compliance. However, the European experience is not a blueprint for regional integration that can be directly and entirely applied to other regions.     

财政政策与货币政策的动态搭配和组合模式

基于经济周期的不同阶段,从IS-LM曲线和供求理论的双重视角解析利用财政政策与货币政策对宏观经济进行调控的内在机理,揭示两类政策搭配组合的理论逻辑,分析制约财政政策与货币政策调控效应的现实因素。研究发现,财政政策与货币政策的搭配组合要根据经济发展的不同阶段进行动态供给,以满足经济周期不同阶段的需求,如此方能实现经济的稳定增长。现阶段,我国应采取“更加积极的财政政策与稳健适度的货币政策”这一政策组合。产品市场与货币市场对利率的弱敏感性使政策刺激经济的效果受到制约,因而两类政策不仅要在总量层面“对冲”经济增速减缓的压力,而且要在结构层面增强协调性。     

Analysis and Management of Indonesian Money Supply Growth

This paper reviews Indonesia's record of monetary management over the last quarter century, showing that there has been a lack of stability in money growth, and that average growth rates have been higher than is consistent with low inflation. The source of monetary expansion is located primarily in growth of base money, which is here disaggregated into three components reflecting government policy in respect of the budget, the exchange rate, and interest rates, respectively. Exchange rate policy, through its effect on the balance of payments, is shown to have been the main cause of rapid and unstable monetary growth during this period. A contrast is also drawn between the author's preferred technique of analysing monetary movements and the 'accounting approach', based on money formation tables and favoured by previous writers in this field.     

Risk attitude in lotteries offering real products and monetary outcomes

Using two auction mechanisms, the second price auction and the Becker, DeGroot, and Marschak mechanism, we examined individuals’ buying and selling bidding patterns in three types of binary lotteries: a lottery offering only real products, a lottery offering only monetary outcomes and mixed lotteries offering both real products and monetary value outcomes. Participants’ willingness to pay and willingness to accept for the product lottery suggest risk neutrality. In contrast, participants’ bidding prices for the monetary and mixed lotteries suggest risk aversion. These findings suggest that an individual's risk attitude depends upon the type of lottery, perhaps indicating a “product illusion.”