Inflation bias and markup shocks in a LAMP model with strategic interaction of monetary and fiscal policy

This paper investigates the effects generated by limited asset market participation on optimal monetary and fiscal policy, where monetary and fiscal authorities are independent and play strategically. It shows that: (i) both the long run and the short run equilibrium require a departure from zero inflation rate; (ii) in response to a markup shock, fiscal policy becomes more aggressive as the fraction of liquidity constrained agents increases and price stability is no longer optimal even under Ramsey; (iii) overall, optimal discretionary policies imply welfare losses for Ricardians, while liquidity constrained consumers experience welfare gains with respect to Ramsey.     

How much to share: Welfare effects of fiscal transfers

Recent sovereign debt crisis has challenged policy makers to explore the possibility of establishing a fiscal transfer system that could alleviate the negative impact of asymmetric shocks across countries. Using a simple labour production economy, we first derive an analytically tractable solution for optimal degree of fiscal transfers. In this economy, fiscal transfers can improve welfare by moving the competitive equilibrium with fiscal transfers closer to the social planner's solution. We then extend the model to a DSGE setting with capital, international bond and linear taxes, and we analyze how implementation of a simple revenue sharing rule affects welfare and macroeconomic variables over time. Simulation results show that risk sharing through fiscal transfers always improves welfare in the long run. However, under certain model specifications, short‐run transitional welfare loss can outweigh the long‐run benefits. These results suggest that, in designing fiscal transfers across countries, government should take into consideration the intertemporal nature of welfare gains.     

OPTIMAL FISCAL POLICY IN THE DESIGN OF SOCIAL SECURITY REFORMS*

The quantitative literature has documented that a privatization of the social security system generates large long‐run welfare gains at the cost of welfare losses for transition generations. In this article, we maximize over the entire policy space, following the optimal fiscal policy approach. The resulting allocation, by construction, lies on the constrained Pareto frontier. We find that the optimal design of reforms exhibits sizeable welfare gains arising from a reduction in labor supply distortions. In contrast, the welfare gains coming from the reduction of savings distortions are relatively small.     

Monetary and fiscal policies in a heterogeneous‐agent economy

We study the effects of long‐run inflation and income taxation in an economy where households face uninsurable idiosyncratic risks. We construct a tractable competitive‐search framework that generates dispersion of prices, income and wealth. We analytically characterize the stationary equilibrium and the policy effects on individual choices. Quantitative analysis finds that monetary and fiscal policies have distinct effects on macro aggregates, such as output, savings and wealth, income and consumption inequalities. There is a hump‐shaped relationship between welfare and the respective policies. Overall, welfare is maximized by a deviation from the Friedman rule, paired with distortionary income taxation.     

Fiscal policy reforms in general equilibrium: The case of Greece

This paper quantifies the macroeconomic and welfare implications of (i) changes in the tax-spending mix and (ii) debt consolidation policies. The setup is a neoclassical growth model augmented with a relatively rich public sector. The model is calibrated to the Greek economy. The results suggest that, if the goal of fiscal policy is to stimulate the economy and increase welfare by changing the tax mix, then it should decrease the tax rate on labour income and increase the consumption tax rate. While higher public investment spending is good for the economy, it is lower public consumption spending that is found to be expansionary. The results also suggest that both tax- and expenditure-based debt consolidation policies lead to worse economic activity in the short run, but they have strong beneficial effects in the medium and long run when the consolidation period finishes.     

Fiscal Policy in a Growing Economy with Financial Frictions and Firm Heterogeneity

This paper constructs a tractable model of endogenous growth with financial frictions and firm heterogeneity. We introduce factor income tax, consumption tax as well as the government consumption into the base model and explore the growth effect of fiscal policy. We show that from the qualitative perspective, the long‐run effects of fiscal actions in our model are similar to those obtained in the representative agent models. However, the quantitative impacts of fiscal policy on long‐run growth in our setting can be substantially different from those established in the model where agents are homogeneous and there is no financial frictions.     

Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: An ARDL Bounds Testing approach

The aim of this paper is to investigate the semi-strong market efficiency hypothesis with respect to fiscal policy information, in the context of the Bucharest Stock Exchange. Taking into account that macroeconomic data series of emerging countries usually have a limited size and may be plagued by inconsistencies and structural breaks, this paper proposes an ARDL Bounds testing approach for studying the relationship between stock returns and lagged macroeconomic variables. Moreover, this approach allows us to examine both the long and short-term relationship between fiscal policy and stock returns. The results indicate that, in the long run, stock prices fully and efficiently reflect information on past fiscal policy. However, in the short run, the Romanian stock market reacts efficiently only to unexpected fiscal policy news, while anticipated fiscal policy information displays a significant lagged relationship with current stock returns. In addition, the results also showed that monetary policy information is not incorporated efficiently into stock prices, both in the short and the long run, and its impact on stock returns is larger than the one exerted by fiscal policy.     

A TALE OF TAX POLICIES IN OPEN ECONOMIES

To evaluate fiscal policy reforms for Euro‐area countries, this article develops and calibrates a small open economy model. Debt reduction reforms require higher tax rates in the short term in exchange for lower rates in the long term as the debt‐servicing burden falls. Using the capital income tax to implement such a policy leads to welfare gains; the consumption tax, a very small welfare gain; and the labor income tax, a welfare loss. Holding fixed the long‐run debt–output ratio, offsetting a lower capital income tax with either a higher labor income or consumption tax generally yields welfare gains.     

Regime changes and fiscal sustainability in Kenya

Kenya's fiscal policy landscape is characterized by primary deficit spending forcing the government to rely on debt to meet its objectives. The justification often being that as a developing economy, annual growth rates and future prospects may in the short run justify the uptake of debt to finance infrastructural development. However, given potential fiscal limits, fiscal cycles usually alternates between sustainable and unsustainable regimes and this has a bearing on long run sustainability. This study therefore sought to investigate the nature of fiscal policy regime in Kenya and the extent to which fiscal policy is sustainable in the long run taking into account periodic regime shifts. Markov switching models were used to endogenously determine fiscal policy regimes. Regime switching tests were used to test whether No-Ponzi game condition and debt stabilizing condition were met. The results established that regime switching model was suitable in explaining regime sustainable and unsustainable cycles. An investigation of fiscal policy regimes established that both sustainable and unsustainable regimes were dominant, and each lasted for an average of four years. There was evidence to imply the existence of procyclical fiscal policy in Kenya. Regime switching tests for long run sustainability suggested that the No-Ponzi game condition weakly holds in the Kenyan economy. Regime-based sensitivity analysis indicated that persistence of unsustainability regime for more than 4 years could threaten long-run fiscal sustainability.     

When does financial integration matter for fiscal policy in a currency union? A welfare-based approach

We use a two-country new open economy macroeconomics model describing a currency union with imperfect financial integration. We assume that household preferences are biased towards the goods produced within the country. We use this setup to show how the degree of financial integration and the home bias affect the welfare efficiency of fiscal policy. This is particularly important for the implications of a fiscal policy launched by a member of the euro zone where the home bias is in a decreasing trend due to higher goods market integration and where there are explicit efforts to enhance financial integration. The results show in particular how the effects of an increasing financial integration on the impact of a fiscal policy can be mitigated or amplified by a decreasing home-product bias. Moreover, under certain conditions, the degree of financial integration has no effect on the welfare efficiency of fiscal policy despite its non-negligible effects on the components of welfare.     

Stabilization policy,infrastructure investment,and welfare in a small open economy

Using a two-sector neoclassical growth model in an open economy setting with heterogeneous agents, this paper studies the distributional effects and welfare implications of a joint monetary and fiscal policy response to public infrastructure expansion in emerging market economies. The results show that fiscal stabilization policy is critical for achieving fiscal sustainability and price stability. With joint support of monetary and fiscal policy, government infrastructure investment provides significant welfare gains to the economy, and the choice of fiscal instruments has major distributional effects across agents: saving households accrue the highest welfare gains with new bond issuance, while hand-to-mouth consumers are better off when non-distorting taxes are adjusted. These potential tradeoffs in welfare due to households’ differing responses to infrastructure expansion have important implications for policy making.     

Balanced-Budget Rules: Welfare Loss and Optimal Policies

Most economic models do not suggest an optimal fiscal policy in which the government's budget is balanced each period. Conventional wisdom suggests that the government run surpluses and deficits to smooth taxes. In this paper, I use an approach which brings together real business cycle theory and the theory of public finance to evaluate the effects of a balanced-budget restriction. Four fiscal policies are investigated in a model with growth. All models are solved numerically using a multidimensional collocation parameterized expectations algorithm. The welfare consequences of each policy are measured, and the optimal Ramsey policies are characterized. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: E62.     

FISCAL POLICY IN AN ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL WITH PUBLIC CAPITAL AND POLLUTION

This paper studies the growth and welfare effects of fiscal policy in an endogenous growth model with public capital and environmental pollution. I assume that pollution is due to aggregate production, and that it does not have a direct effect on production but only reduces household utility. I study the growth effects of fiscal policy for the model on the balanced growth path, taking transition dynamics into account. I then analyse the welfare effects of fiscal policy along the balanced growth path. Finally, I show how the fiscal parameters must be set so that the competitive economy replicates the social optimum.     

On the Sustainability of Austrian Budgetary Policies

The question whether fiscal policies are sustainable in the long run has received much attention in the international political agenda. In this paper, we investigate whether Austrian fiscal policy has been sustainable during the last four decades. We apply several econometric approaches to test for the sustainability of fiscal policies. The results are ambiguous. For the period of 1960–1974, we find evidence for sustainable fiscal policies. For the period 1975–1999, the results indicate that Austrian fiscal policy was not sustainable in the long run. If Austrian policy-makers do not change their budgetary policy in the future, the long-term budget constraint of the state will be violated.     

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY EFFICIENCY AND COORDINATION IN A MULTI‐SECTOR OPEN‐ECONOMY GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

The paper analyzes monetary and fiscal stabilization and coordination in a multi‐sector stochastic new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) model. It first aims to assess the capacity of fiscal and monetary policy to reduce or eliminate the negative welfare effects of an unanticipated productivity shock affecting some or all of the sectors in each country. Second, it evaluates the possible gains from international monetary cooperation as well as the impact of active fiscal policy on the welfare performance of monetary policy. The setup also allows for international asymmetry concerning the uncertainty over the shocks. The results show that monetary and fiscal policies are efficient tools of stabilization and under several conditions they can replicate the flexible‐price equilibrium. However, their welfare performance is not necessarily increased when both monetary and fiscal policies react to shocks at the national level. The existence of bilateral gains from monetary cooperation depends on the degree of asymmetry concerning the uncertainty over the shocks.     

二元财政的制度变迁：基于路径依赖的视角

植根于二元经济结构的二元财政制度总是执行有利于城镇部门发展，而且有损于农业部门发展的财政税收政策。这不仅造成了农村居民的长期贫困，而且还持续拉大城乡差距。基于新制度经济学的制度变迁分析结果显示，二元财政的制度安排内含自我增强机制，其变迁具有明显的路径依赖特征，所以，农村居民的贫困必然具有长期性，城乡差距也会持续拉大。因此，必须根据中国经济现实，对二元财政制度采取边际调整的改革措施和借助市场化的手段改善其赖以存在的经济环境，方可在长期内从整体上推动二元财政制度变迁，实现城乡平等的财政制度。     

Growth,intergenerational welfare,and environmental policies in an overlapping generations economy

This paper examines the effects of the environmental tax on long‐run growth and intergenerational welfare in a discrete‐time overlapping generations (OLG ) model. We highlight that the role regarding how the environmental tax revenues are distributed between the young or old generations has important implications for the growth and welfare effects. Our results indicate that raising the environmental tax can exert different effects on the environmental utility of the existing young and old generations, implying an intergenerational welfare conflict of the environmental policy. However, if tax revenues are distributed appropriately, our numerical simulation shows that it is possible for a higher environmental tax to improve the welfare of all generations.     

WHAT IT TAKES TO SOLVE THE U.S. GOVERNMENT DEFICIT PROBLEM

This paper uses a structural multi‐country macroeconometric model to estimate the size of the decrease in transfer payments (or tax expenditures) needed to stabilize the U.S. government debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. It takes into account endogenous effects of changes in fiscal policy on the economy and in turn the effect of changes in the economy on the deficit. A base run is first obtained for the 2013:1–2022:4 period in which there are no major changes in U.S. fiscal policy. This results in an ever increasing debt/GDP ratio. Then transfer payments are decreased by an amount sufficient to stabilize the long‐run debt/GDP ratio. The results show that transfer payments need to be decreased by 2% of GDP from the base run, which over the 10 years is $3.2 trillion in 2005 dollars and $4.8 trillion in current dollars. The real output loss is 1.1% of baseline GDP. Monetary policy helps keep the loss down, but it is not powerful enough in the model to eliminate all of the loss. The estimates are robust to a base run with less inflation and to one with less expansion. (JEL E17)     

Decreasing marginal impatience in a two-country world economy

By using a two-country model with endogenous time preference, this paper examines the dynamic implication of decreasing marginal impatience (DMI). To ensure stability, we assume that one country has DMI whereas the other has increasing marginal impatience (IMI). The resultant equilibrium dynamics differ from what can be inferred from the analysis of the standard IMI model (e.g., Devereux and Shi in J Int Econ 30:1–25, 1991). An increase in fiscal spending, in either country with DMI or IMI, has always contrasting long-run effects on domestic and foreign consumption and hence on domestic and foreign welfare; and the same policy definitely raises the interest rate in the long run.     

Foreign Debt,Foreign Direct Investment and Volatility

We investigate how foreign debt and foreign direct investment (FDI) affect the growth and welfare of a stochastically growing small open economy. First, we find that foreign debt influences the growth of domestic wealth by lowering the cost of capital, while FDI affects the country's welfare by providing an additional source of permanent income. Second, a decline in domestic investment may improve domestic welfare as FDI replaces the gap. Even when the welfare deteriorates, its magnitude is mitigated, leaving more room for discretionary fiscal policy. Third, a fiscal policy aimed to stabilize domestic output fluctuations needs to be conducted not to crowd out the welfare benefit of FDI too much. Fourth, an economy with both types of foreign capital experiences wider welfare swings by external volatility shocks than the one with foreign debt alone, while the welfare effects from domestic volatility shocks are mitigated. The welfare effects of fiscal shocks are much smaller with both types of foreign capital. Lastly, the first-best labor income tax covers the government absorption by the labor's share of total output, and the capital income tax covers the rest. Investment is penalized or subsidized depending on the social marginal cost-gain differential.