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1.
Vacation travel between regions is usually asymmetrical. This causes a problem when one tries to use a gravity model to forecast inter-regional travel. Although researchers have adopted strategies for coping with this problem, none of these strategies adequately resolve the complication of asymmetrical flows. This paper presents a measure of directional bias that accounts for unequal flows between two regions, and applies it to inter-provincial flows in Canada for the years 1968 to 1978. The directional bias appears to be stable over the period considered, and the index can be easily incorporated into forecasting models. Its use will allow researchers to add greater precision and power to their predictive models.  相似文献   

2.
  总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
Importance of forecasting in tourism is not a controversial issue. Recently, there has been increased attention on forecasting models in tourism. The value of a forecasting model depends on the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts. At present, there is no indication as to which model or class of models is suitable for forecasting tourism. This paper specifies, estimates, and validates an ARIMA model for forecasting long-stay visitors in Barbados. The accuracy of the short-term forecasts surpasses most recent forecasting studies. The implication of the study is that customized model building may be highly rewarding in terms of accurate forecasts compared to standard or simple methods.  相似文献   

3.
    
Starting from Baudrillard's analysis of the ideological character inherent in all consumption, touristic consumption, for many reasons ,has a special place in this social semantic. Here, advertising plays an important if not essential role because tourism is a product consumed outside of normal time and daily social space. Therefore the social semantic asserts itselfless through the product itself than through its representation: the discourse of advertising. But advertising discourse is plural, each form having its own ideology, competing with others. Behind the commercial competition lies a competition of social classes, but with a new typology, no longer based on the capital/favor relationship. Four ideological models are analyzed and illustrated with their advertising messages: the traditional model, the clerical/executive model, the youth model, and the “intellectual class” model.  相似文献   

4.
Tourist arts with ethnic content are at the nexus of changing tourism, ethnicity and art in the modern world. This paper explores the range of varieties of tourist arts, the dynamics of change between various types of artifacts, and the interaction between tourist arts and notions of ethnic self-perception. The analogy between language and art is pursued to illuminate the nature of the various communication codes embodied in tourist and ethnic arts. The paper concludes by stressing that tourist arts are not an end-point, but one possibility within the fluid relationships between material symbols, outsiders' demand, and the defense and reformulation of ethnicity. It also concludes that the evolution of ethnic awareness, combined with increased education and travel opportunities, is bringing a uniformity of attitudes towards tourism, material heritage, and museums among the middle classes of all nations. Thus minority ethnic symbols have become the manipulated “totems” of touristic identity.  相似文献   

5.
    
Sunday, Alexander A., “Foreign Travel and Tourism Prices and Demand,” Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. V, No. 2, April/June 1978, pp. 268–273. Using regression analysis and panel data this study estimates the parameter effect of prices on American demand for foreign travel and tourism. Findings suggest that higher air fares generate fewer tourists but greater expenditure per tourist visit.  相似文献   

6.
The complex rapidly changing environment faced by tourism organization officials makes tourism planning extremely difficult. Goal programming can aid the tourism planner in appraising the goal attainment potential associated with proposed tourism marketing program alternatives. By changing priorities of goals, budgetary limitations, and organizational constraints, the policy maker can test the effect of changes before they are implemented. By utilizing goal programming, a tourism organization can more systematically evaluate the nature and relative importance of organizational goals, critical constraints affecting the organization and marketing program alternatives.  相似文献   

7.
Mexico has experienced all the effects, good and ill, of a large and expanding tourist trade. Tourism's negative consequences--economic dependency, crime, cultural erosion--have manifested themselves in tourist ghettos along Mexico's northern border, on the Mexican Riviera, and in the capital. This study is an assesment of contemporary Mexican tourism planning as it relates to these problems, and further as it seeks to make tourism a stimulus to economically depressed areas of the nation. A case study approach is utilized to identify the strategy of site and situation selection for the new programmed resort complex at Cancun on the Caribbean coast of the Yucatan peninsula. It is concluded that Cancun embodies, at least for Mexico, a radical departure in tourism development. The resort is situated to attract a large foreign clientele and to create the greatest possible positive economic and social impact on a resident Mexican population that has suffered chronic underdevelopment.  相似文献   

8.
  总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Two principal general approaches to tourism are criticized. It is argued against the tendency to over generalize, to propose universal models and to conceive of the dynamics of tourism as a unilinear process. Instead, a multiplicity of types, different typologies and a multilinear approach to the dynamics of tourism should be favored. It is further argued that conceptual schemes should be further elaborated, illustrating the argument by an elaboration of MacCannell's fundamental concepts. The article emphasizes the need for some basic problems in tourism research to be reformulated; it proposes a strategy for research which, while preserving theoretical pluralism and eclecticism, will safeguard continuity and the ability to generalize by developing a common research style for the sociology of tourism.  相似文献   

9.
    
In a longitudinal comparative study, some current issues concerning the nature, penetration, and impact of youth tourism on two beaches on two differentially developed islands in southern Thailand are examined. The beaches are “marginal paradises”—touristic paradises marginal to both the life plan of the tourists and the ecology and economy of the native society. Contrary to a widespread idea, vacationing youth tourists seek mainly “recreational” experiences, resembling those sought by most mass tourists, and show marked narcissistic tendencies. They have few relations among themselves or with the natives. Superficial native friendliness covers up a deeper resentment of the foreigners; while nude bathing causes inter-cultural misunderstanding, animosity finds expression in tourist- oriented crime. Though tourism development is of the small scale “craft” type, its benefits for the surrounding native villages are few, especially on the more developed island, where urban businessmen control the beach. The study lends some support to the multi-lineal model of touristic development, with the two beaches mainfesting differential development dynamics  相似文献   

10.
The character of winter society in Nice during the period of 1763–1936 is traced in cultural developmental terms. This society, which originally was comprised of a small homogeneous group of (mostly) sick upper class Englishmen, gradually evolved to a large international group of wealthy (mostly) healthy winter visitors. The character of this later society appears to have conformed to Cohen's model for expatriate communities in which various groups of foreign nationals band together into an international group of expatriates linked with upper status residents. The evolutionary trend from the simple to the complex is seen to be the result of (mostly outside) entrepreneurial acativity directed at an expanding market. A continuation of such activity appears to have led to the mass tourism in present-day Nice.  相似文献   

11.
    
This paper addresses a controversial topic in tourism scholarship which is simultaneously a problem and an opportunity in tourism education: the philosophical issue of academic disciplines and specifically, the question of a distinct discipline in tourism studies. It is argued that the orthodox approach to tourism education, multi-disciplinary studies, has become an impediment. It is suggested that a new discipline can be created by organizing the existing body of knowledge and that such a discipline can become the core of an inter-disciplinary approach. Certain characteristics of an embryonic discipline are outlined and innovations in this area at Sydney Technical College are discussed.  相似文献   

12.
    
Jafari, Jafar, J. R. Brent Ritchie, Toward a Framework For Tourism Education: Problems and Prospects. Annals of Tourism Research 1981, VIII(1):13–34. The purpose of this article is to offer a framework for analysis and discussion of tourism education. It first adopts a definition of tourism within which interaction among its components and extraneous aspects are considered. Specifically, it addresses issues related to travelers, tourism goods and services, socio-physical factors, and the host-guest relationship. Second, it discusses some social science disciplines relevant to the study of tourism, with reference to some methods of research and teaching of tourism. Finally, the article moves on to present some other issues pertinent to curriculum development in tourism. Throughout the paper, a number of questions are raised and attempts are made to point out some critical issues in tourism education.  相似文献   

13.
    
This paper addresses the impact of tourism on the preservation of ethnic identity with specific reference to the Louisiana Cajuns. Tourism has helped the Cajuns retain a separate identity by reinforcing the differences between Cajuns and outsiders. Cajuns are increasingly relinquishing their traditional culture in favor of standard U.S. values, but they retain a strong sense of identity and ethnic pride. A growing tourist industry was institutionalized at about the same time as the development of ethnic pride, and the two phenomena have profoundly influenced each other. Cajuns have become tourists in their own culture, joining outsiders in seeking and celebrating their brand of “local color” Cajun culture is now enacted on a “tourist stage” for the benefit of locals and their visitors. The tourist stage is an arena for the expression of ethnic differences, and it helps perpetuate an ethnic boundary that might otherwise disappear due to acculturation. Using the Cajuns as a case study, this paper proposes a model for the process of ethnic preservation through tourism.  相似文献   

14.
Photography has been an indispensable component of tourism in Western cultures. Whether taken by tourists or by commercial photographers, pictures constitute an important window through which tourist ideology can be analyzed. Drawing on a sample of over 600 post cards issued between 1900 and 1970, this study traces the emergence and widespread adoption of Plains Indian imagery in pictures of Great Lakes Indians. The analysis focuses on some of the ways in which photography and tourism have articulated in reinforcing as well as advancing a stereotyped image of the Indian in the western Great Lakes.  相似文献   

15.
Government tourism initiatives in developing countries have been applauded by tourism scholars as a means of assisting a private sector that has insufficient resources and assuring public control of the industry's future. This article reviews the tourism development experience of seven South Asian countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, the Maldive Republic) on five policy options: public versus private tourism development; domestic versus international tourism; class versus mass tourism; centralization versus decentralization; and integrated versus enclave tourism. All of the governments in the region have been involved in tourism development to some degree, but they have shown considerable variation in their responses to these policy choices. Which choices are made by a specific country, it is suggested, will depend as much on political and cultural considerations as upon economic factors.  相似文献   

16.
Currency brought into West Africa by tourists is strong support for black market operations. The positive as well as the negative effects of illicit currency exchanges are evaluated for their social and economic significance for the region. The black market is not only an index of economic conditions, but is important for individual and group survival and the maintenance of social structure in countries having long term weakened economies. Anthroplogical data provides Third World planners a broadened base for decisions dealing with the role of tourism in regional development.  相似文献   

17.
    
Runyan, Dean and Chung-Tong Wu, “Assessing Tourism's more Complex Consequences,” Annals of Tourism Research, October/December 1979, VI(4):448–463. The development of tourism can have extensive physical, social and economic impacts. Certain of these impacts can be classified as relatively complex: those that take many variables to describe, are difficult to quantify and which are sensitive to policy or other difficult-to-predict interventions. The involvement of residents in an impact estimation process can serve to both forecast and appraise these relatively complex impacts. Relatively few techniques are available for estimation of complex impacts which do not rely almost exclusively on the intuition of professionals. Those that make use of lay individual input include Delbecq procedures, Delphi and IMPASSE. These techniques can be used to identify potential impacts by structuring group discussions. A two-stage approach to estimating complex impacts is proposed.  相似文献   

18.
Evolution of tourism in the Scottish highlands   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The evolution of the tourist industry of the Scottish highlands is discussed from the early eighteenth century until the beginning of the nineteenth century. Five stages of development are identified, which reflect the social, economic and technological changes occuring in Britain during those periods. The importance of fashion and taste and transportation improvements are given special emphasis. The early pattern of development of infrastructure structure and land use has significantly influenced the present characteristics of the tourist industry in the area.  相似文献   

19.
The paper by Rodenburg (Annals VII:2:177–196) on the effect of scale in tourism development in Bali raises important questions relating to tourism development in Third World countries. One fundamental question is whether large-scale development is inevitable in such countries, or whether there is persuasive evidence to support smaller and craft scale enterprises. This article undertakes a critical review of Rodenburg's analysis and concludes that large scale developments are likely to be inevitable because of external economies of scale and market structures in international tourism, but that the consequences of such developments can be foreseen and therefore mitigated by appropriate pre-project planning.  相似文献   

20.
The reported empirical study assessed anticipated reactions to foreign visitors in an area being considered for a tourism development program. Although a generally high level of acceptance was predicted by the residents, over 11% of the 846 respondents anticipated negative reactions within their residential community. Analysis of the possible relationships between twelve demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the respondents and their expectations concerning host community acceptance of tourists from foreign countries disclosed only one statistically significant relationship. Survey participants who reported living in urban areas assessed the community's probable reaction to foreign travellers most positively, while a movement away from urban centers was associated with more negative expectations.  相似文献   

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