总供给的微观基础

当代宏观经济学把总供给看成是物价水平的函数，而经济增长理论又以社会总生产函数为基础。那麽总供给与总生产函数之间的关系究竟如何？总供给与总生产函数的微观基础是否牢靠？本文从各个企业的生产函数和成本函数出发研究这些问题，找到了社会总生产函数和社会总成本函数的构成形式，并证明了社会的产品总供给和要素总需求正好是在社会总生产函数下，实现社会利润最大化的产品供给与要素需求，从而为宏观经济学中的总供给和总生产函数建立了微观基础。     

The anatomy of the aggregate labor supply elasticity

We show that the aggregate Frisch elasticity of labor supply can greatly exceed the corresponding individual-level parameter, and we illustrate the “anatomy” of the former in terms of intensive and extensive margins. The methodology consists of using micro data from the PSID to construct a panel of individuals and an aggregate time series obtained by aggregating these individuals each year. These two data sets represent exactly the same sample at different levels of aggregation, and we use them to identify the parameters of two distinct MaCurdy-type micro and macro equations. We find a micro elasticity of about 0.1 and a much larger macro elasticity that ranges from 1.1 to 1.7. There is no conflict between the two estimates: the micro one reflects only the intensive margin while the macro one reflects, in addition, the much more volatile extensive margin. Furthermore, aggregation of only continuously employed individuals allows us to provide a reliable estimate of the intensive margin elasticity in the range 0.3–0.4. This implies an extensive margin elasticity in the range 0.8–1.4. These findings suggest that micro evidence is not a benchmark for assessing how large the Frisch elasticity of labor supply should be in a model of the aggregate economy.     

Fiscal policy,long-run stability and aggregate supply

The model developed in this paper incorporates aggregate supply and hence the price level into existing dynamic IS-LM models of flow and stock equilibrium. Whereas the long-run equilibrium position in these models is stable and fiscal policy works regardless of empirical magnitudes when budget deficits are financed by printing money, the introduction of aggregate supply into these models is shown to render the stability of long-run equilibrium and hence the effectiveness of fiscal policy under money financing, open to empirical question.     

Lifetime aggregate labor supply with endogenous workweek length

This paper studies lifetime aggregate labor supply with endogenous workweek length. Such a theory is needed to evaluate various government policies. A key feature of our model is a nonlinear mapping from hours worked to labor services. This gives rise to an endogenous workweek that can differ across occupations. The theory determines what fraction of the lifetime an individual works, not when. We find that constraints on workweek length have different consequences for total hours than for total labor services. Also, we find that policies designed to increase the length of the working life may not increase aggregate lifetime labor supply.     

The supply of skills in the labor force and aggregate output volatility

The cyclical volatility of US gross domestic product suddenly declined during the early 1980s and remained low for over 20 years. I develop a labor search model with worker heterogeneity and match-specific costs to show how an increase in the supply of high-skill workers can contribute to a decrease in aggregate output volatility. In the model, firms react to changes in the distribution of skills by creating jobs designed specifically for high-skill workers. The new worker–firm matches are more profitable and less likely to break apart due to productivity shocks. Aggregate output volatility falls because the labor market stabilizes on the extensive margin. In a simple calibration exercise, the labor market based mechanism generates a substantial portion of the observed changes in output volatility.     

Patinkin,the Cowles Commission,and the theory of unemployment and aggregate supply

The paper provides an account of Don Patinkin's long-time search for an explanation of the notions of an aggregate demand constraint and unemployment under the assumption of a perfectly competitive goods market. It is argued that Patinkin's quest is reflected on the development of the concept of an aggregate supply function in the goods market. Patinkin's interpretation of aggregate supply and unemployment is compared to similar ideas put forward by Jacob Marschak, Trygve Haavelmo and Lawrence Klein, his former colleagues at the Cowles Commission in Chicago.     

Empirical determination of aggregate demand and supply curves: The example of the RWI Business Cycle Model

Macroeconometric models are often criticised for being too complex and difficult to read in theoretical terms. To overcome these difficulties, Hickman suggested the calculation of a model's implicit aggregate demand/supply (AD/AS) structure. The method helps to understand models and their main properties in theoretical terms and facilitates detailed model comparisons. This paper uses the AD/AS–IS/LM apparatus to analyse the simulation properties of the RWI (Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) Business Cycle Model, a medium-sized short-term macroeconometric model for Germany. The results confirm theoretical expectations for AD and AS elasticities and reveal particular reactions linked to peculiar model specifications such as an endogenous government sector. The results are also much in line with a previous study in a multi-country model context.     

Payday-loan bans: evidence of indirect effects on supply

In November 2008, Ohio enacted the Short-Term Loan Law which imposed a 28% APR on payday loans, effectively banning the industry. Using licensing records f     

Macro foundations of micro-economics

This paper attempts to circumvent the nonsense of the representative agent which arises in macroeconomics. It recognises that macro data are relevant to agents' decisions, and so excess demands should contain macro variables as arguments. The macro variables I consider are the price index, unemployment and GNP. This paper should be regarded as a tentative beginning to make macroeconomic theory literate. Received: September 19, 2001; revised version: July 24, 2002 RID="*" ID="*"I am delighted to contribute to this Festschrift for Mordecai now that he has reached the appropriate age.     

宏观税收调控模型与宏观经济政策效用分析

通过对宏观税收调控模型的分析可以看出,实现经济的持续增长,从税收的角度看,就是要发挥其调节作用,促进资源的优化配置,调整和优化产业结构;从税收调控的角度看,税收分配在这一程度上制约着消费水平和各种消费的比例关系,调节着消费结构。     

Macro has progressed

Recent articles claiming convergence in macroeconomics take a narrow view of macro focused on the use of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. With this narrow view of the state of the art in macro, Fair (2011) questions whether macro has progressed. However, when taking a broader view, many important contributions in macro are evident. Encouraging and appreciating diversity in research, including the development and use of a variety of models and methodologies should enhance the pace of progression.     

Some tests for money illusion and distribution effects in the aggregate consumption function

The hypothesis that the aggregate consumption displays money illusion in the sense that consumers mistake an increase in nominal incomes for an increase in real incomes and thus consume more out of given real incomes in response to a rise in the price level and the hypothesis that the aggregate consumption depends on the distribution of income are tested using Finnish annual and quarterly data. The money illusion hypothesis is rejected by annual data, while it meets success with quarterly data. The hypothesis of distribution effects in the aggregate consumption is supported by annual data. Particularly, equalizing the distribution of income would increase the aggregate consumption. In view of the quality of data on personal income distribution this conclusion cannot be regarded as more than tentative.     

收入再分配对我国居民总消费需求的扩张效应

本文研究我国收入再分配与居民总消费需求的关系。文章利用分组的家庭户数据,用三种方法度量居民消费支出,估计了各收入组的边际消费倾向差异。研究中还将变量间的长期动态关系和通货膨胀因素纳入分析范围。研究结果表明,中国的收入分配显著影响了居民消费。根据本文的模拟计算,即使中低收入阶层的收入份额只有微弱的提高,也可以增加数百亿元的居民消费需求。因此,缩小居民收入差距,加大居民收入再分配的力度,壮大中等收入者的队伍,提高农民收入,对刺激我国居民消费需求具有积极作用。     

宏观调控转换模式

实施积极财政政策是社会主义市场经济条件下反周期调节的一次成功的尝试。这一历史性决策、政策实施方式及政策的巨大成效,都将对我国经济社会发展产生深远的影晌。     

The gains and losses to predicting nominal income by disaggregating via the new classical aggregate supply and rational expectations hypotheses

In this paper we compaia the predictive power of two types of model of nominal income: one based on a simple single equation aggregate framework; the second disaggregated into price level and output components. The source of the decomposition of nominal income of the type of model that is considered here are the twin hypotheses of rational expectations and structural neutrality. The model chosen as being representative of this approach to macroeconomic model building and against which some single equation models are compared isBarro's [1978] model of the price level and output in the U.S.     

The effects of inflation uncertainty and supply shocks on real interest rates

Increased inflation uncertainty and negative supply shocks have been suggested separately as causes of the 1970s decline in real interest rates. When both factors appear in empirical interest rate models, supply forces exert a statistically significant impact on real rates while the effect of inflation uncertainty is insignificant.     

当前宏观经济形势的思考

1992年后,中国国民经济的增速一直呈现为连续下滑趋势,1992年至1999年历年增长速度分别为14．2％、13．5％、12．6％、10．5％、9．6％、8．8％、7．8％和7．1％。与国民经济增速下滑相应的就业形势日趋严峻,实际失业率不断上升和居高不下。更令人担忧的是物价连续走低,通货紧缩状况困扰经济发展。产业投资回报状况恶化,增量资金找不到有利的投资领域,金融资本被迫不断降低利率,银行存贷款利率自1996年5月至1999年6月,连续七次下调,居民存款利率三年降幅达79．51％,流动资金贷款利率降幅达46．72％。     

资本市场通胀理论与宏观调控

中国资本市场近年来快速膨胀又大幅调整,不断流出、流入这个市场的资金给宏观调控带来了前所未有的考验.通过分析Minsky的资本市场通胀理论以及对货币政策有效性的影响,对如何宏观调控中国资本市场和防止资本市场的大起大落提出了建议和意见.