城乡户籍与人力资本收益——基于广东省截面数据的观察

利用广东省各地区制造业企业劳动力情况的4443个样本截面调研数据,分析城乡户籍就业劳动力人力资本回报情况.研究表明,在社会主义市场经济改革进程中,行政权力和市场力量常常以不同的结合形态相互交织在一起,通过不同的方式改变着劳动力在户籍方面的结构特征和劳动力市场条件,从而决定着当前城乡户籍就业人力资本回报的基本格局及其变化路径.各地区户籍分组的人力资本收益率的变化显著存在差异,劳动力流动和劳动力培训在广东省的市场化收益体现得还不是很明显,尤其是劳动合同的签订情况是在劳动力市场合约谈判和履行中特别需要关注的一个问题.     

PRICE DISPERSION AND DEMAND UNCERTAINTY: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. SCANNER DATA

I use the Prescott (1975) hotels model to explain variations in price dispersion across items sold by supermarkets in Chicago. The effect of uncertainty about aggregate demand on price dispersion is highly significant and quantitatively important: My estimates suggest that more than 40% of the cross‐sectional standard deviation of log prices is due to demand uncertainty. I also find that price dispersion measures are negatively correlated with the average price but are not negatively correlated with the revenues from selling the good (across stores and weeks) and with the number of stores that sell the good.     

CAPITAL CONTROLS AND CONFLICT OF INTERESTS

This paper is a normative analysis of the legal restrictions on international financial movements based on a formal model which analyzes the empirical observation that the degree of financial protectionism is associated with changes in the distribution of welfare among agents. The strategic interactions among four types of agents (a trade union, a firm manager, a financial investor and a government) are analyzed, and the optimal amount of capital control is derived as a Nash perfect equilibrium of a non-cooperative game with imperfect information. I conclude that a financial liberalization proposal can be supported by different coalitions of agents, according to the covariance of domestic and foreign returns and the degree of profitability of domestic industrial projects.     

HOW EFFICIENT HAS BEEN CHINA'S INVESTMENT? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL DATA

Abstract.  This paper analyses both the allocative efficiency and the dynamic efficiency of China's spending on capital. We examine the relationship between investment flows and the marginal product of capital computed by estimating the Cobb-Douglas and CES production functions at both the national and provincial levels. We also investigate dynamic efficiency by comparing the share of capital in national income and the rate of investment. The main finding is that the allocative efficiency of capital in China has improved in recent years, but the high rate of investment may be a sign of dynamic inefficiency of the Chinese economy.     

资本结构的决定因素-来自中国的证据

同其他国家一样,中国上市公司的财务杠杆随企业规模、非债务性避税规模和公司固定资产的增加而增大,随公司盈利能力增加而减小,而且同上市公司所属行业相关.同时,它还会受到所有权结构的影响.同其他国家不同的是,中国上市公司的财务杠杆随公司经营风险程度的增加而增加,而且企业倾向于持有较低的长期债务.同融资的优序假说相比,静态权衡模型对中国上市公司的资本结构似乎有更强的解释力.     

资本结构的决定因素-来自中国的证据

同其他国家一样,中国上市公司的财务杠杆随企业规模、非债务性避税规模和公司固定资产的增加而增大,随公司盈利能力增加而减小,而且同上市公司所属行业相关。同时,它还会受到所有权结构的影响。同其他国家不同的是,中国上市公司的财务杠杆随公司经营风险程度的增加而增加,而且企业倾向于持有较低的长期债务。同融资的优序假说相比,静态权衡模型对中国上市公司的资本结构似乎有更强的解释力。     

STOCKS AND DEPRECIATION OF HUMAN CAPITAL: NEW EVIDENCE FROM A PRESENT-VALUE PERSPECTIVE

Responding to a perceived growing interest in human wealth estimates, this paper offers a framework for measuring the aggregate stock of human capital and then implements the procedure for the United States male population age 14 to 75. Unlike previous estimates of human wealth that are based upon historical or resource costs, these estimates measure the capital stock as the discounted resent-value of expected lifetime returns. In the estimation, returns are equated with earnings data from the 1970 U.S. Census 15 percent Public Use Sample for out-of-school males, adjusted for employment and survival probabilities, adjusted for an assumed exogenous growth in future earnings, and discounted at 7.5 percent.
We provide cross-sectional estimates of individual stocks of human capital by age and educational attainment, as well as expected lifetime wealth profiles for individuals by level of education. These individual profiles can be used to obtain direct estimates of age-specific depreciation which suggest human capital is subject to significant and prolonged appreciation before nearly straight-line depreciation begins around middle age. This finding is all the more significant since resource-cost estimates of human capital which must assume a depreciation pattern to obtain stocks have always imposed a much faster rate much sooner.
Finally, an aggregate estimate of the stock of human capital for all males is supplied and its sensitivity to the choice of the discount rate, tax laws, and expected exogenous growth is analyzed. This seemingly-conservative stock estimate is then compared to a much lower resource-cost estimate offered recently by John Kendrick. A discount rate over 20 percent would be needed to equate the two measures. In trying to reconcile the two figures, we raise some new questions about the validity of both approaches for human capital accounting.     

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION: FIRM-LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM ITALY

This study investigates the impact of investor protection on firm ownership and capital growth in a model where investor protection is allowed to vary between firms. Using panel data for Italy, we construct firm-level variables to capture the degree of investor protection, which is observable to all shareholders. Empirical evidence indicates that the stronger the investor protection the lower the fraction of equity that is owned by insiders. Results show that higher insider equity ownership is linked to larger risk premiums and higher costs of capital. Implications suggest that the magnitude of capital stock distortions is particularly important when shareholder protection is weak and ownership concentration is high.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF POVERTY WITH GEOGRAPHICAL AND INTERTEMPORAL PRICE DISPERSION: EVIDENCE FROM RWANDA

It is not known to what extent welfare measures result from seasonal and geographical price differences rather than from differences in living standards across households. Using data from Rwanda in 1983, we show that the change in mean living standard indicators caused by local and seasonal price deflation is moderately significant at every quarter. By contrast, the differences in poverty measures caused by this deflation can be considerable, for chronic as well as transient or seasonal poverty indicators. Thus, poverty monitoring and anti-poverty targeting can be badly affected by inaccurate deflation of living standard data. Moreover, when measuring seasonal poverty, the deflation based on regional prices instead of local prices only partially corrects for spatial price dispersion. Using annual local prices instead of quarterly local prices only yields a partial deflation, which distorts the measure of poverty fluctuations across seasons and biases estimates of annual and chronic poverty.     

地区专业化、产业集中与经济集聚——对我国制造业的实证分析

以新经济地理学模型为基本理论框架,对我国各省区专业化水平、制造业各行业的集中程度和整个制造业的集聚程度进行了实证分析,结果显示1993—2003年间我国各省份的专业化水平呈显著上升趋势,制造业大部分行业集中程度提高,整个制造业集聚程度上升。在制造业各行业集中程度和整个制造业集聚程度的测算中,引入SP指数,结果显示这一指标的引进是非常必要的。     

人力资本与研发行为-基于民营企业调研数据的分析

本文运用我国民营企业调研数据,实证研究了企业法人代表、企业总经理和企业员工三个层面的人力资本水平对企业研发行为的影响。在控制企业治理特征、产品特征和行业特征等因素的基础上,本文发现,企业法人代表、企业总经理和企业员工的人力资本水平越高,企业拥有独立研发机构的可能性越大。在考虑了企业人力资本的内生性后,人力资本对企业研发行为同样表现出显著正效应。     

中国对外贸易发展的地域性差异——基于1992-2007年省际面板数据的分析

利用广义熵L指数的分解结果表明,东、中、西部的地域间差异长期主导着对外贸易发展的整体差异,而地域内差异在近年来有所上升。影响中国各省市自治区对外贸易差异的主要因素有各省市自治区的地理和初期条件、技术进步、引进外资以及收入水平等。     

PRICE,PRODUCT QUALITY,AND EXPORTER DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

This article develops a model of heterogeneous firms that endogenously choose prices and product quality to build demand in export markets. New exporters optimally charge relatively low prices and produce low‐quality goods upon entry. Product quality, prices, and sales increase as demand grows. We structurally estimate model parameters using Chinese customs data. The estimated incentive to build future demand reduces average export prices by 0.7% and increases export sales by 4% upon entry. Endogenous demand accumulation causes estimated export prices, product quality, and sales to grow by 2.2%, 12%, and 79%, respectively, over the following five years.     

企业规模与创新:来自中国省级水平的经验证据

本文使用我国1985—1997年省级水平的面板数据,应用动态面板模型方法对我国企业规模与创新的地区间差异问题进行了研究。本文的基本发现是,在我国,企业规模对创新有显著的促进作用,但是企业规模对创新的正向关系主要来源于非国有企业,而不是国有企业。这说明企业规模与创新的关系要以一定的企业治理结构为条件,单纯的规模化和集团化并不一定能够保证企业的创新能力。     

INFLATION UNCERTAINTY AND GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA*

This paper explores empirically the link between inflation uncertainty and economic growth through a panel data analysis with a data set from OECD economies that covers the period from 1969 to 1999 and the GARCH methodology. The main results point out that inflation uncertainty has an adverse impact on economic growth in the majority of the cases under investigation     

REGIONAL EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY IN CHINA: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA'S PROVINCES

This study examines the provincial effects of monetary policy from 1978 to 2011 in China. We used the SVAR method to measure the magnitude and timing of each province's response to monetary policy shocks when considering the influences of spillover effects among provinces. Then we also explored the regional effects of monetary policy employing multiple linear regressions. The results confirm that provinces respond differently to monetary policy actions. It was found that in the short run, the influence of spillover effects on a province's response is very important, but in the long run, the negative influence of deposit transfers overtake the positive impact of the spillover effect. For the factors causing the regional effects on monetary policy, the results show that the interest rate channel is rather weak at the regional level in China. The bank lending channel can explain the regional effects of monetary policy to some extent. Thus in China, the bank lending channel is more effective than the interest rate channel at the regional level.     

核心高管特征与公司成长性关系研究——基于中国沪深两市上市公司数据的经验研究

本文以我国沪深两市2004—2006年的上市公司为样本,从核心高级管理人员的人力资本特征视角,对高管特征与上市公司成长性的关系进行了经验检验。本文发现,在其他条件不变的情况下,上市公司成长性与核心高管的平均年龄、平均任职时间显著相关,而与核心高管平均学历的相关性不显著。进一步的研究还表明,在国有控股公司和非国有控股公司中,核心高管特征与公司成长性的关系具有显著差异。本文的研究有助于深化认知人力资本特征在公司发展过程中的重要地位,对强化核心高管遴选、完善人力资源管理具有积极的借鉴意义。     

FIRM BEHAVIOUR AND FINANCIAL PRESSURE: EVIDENCE FROM SPANISH PANEL DATA

This paper examines responses by firms in Spain to the experience of financial pressure. Using panel data methods applied to a large company panel, a number of aspects of corporate behaviour and the response of each to financial pressure are examined. We consider fixed investment, inventories, employment – distinguishing both permanent and temporary contract employees – and dividend policies. Our results include finding significant effects of financial pressure from borrowing costs on each outcome, particularly investment and employment. The effects on temporary employment are also found to be larger and work through more quickly than on permanent employment.     

INFORMATION AND PRICE DISPERSION: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

Limited information is the key element generating price dispersion in models of homogeneous-goods markets. We show that the global relationship between information and price dispersion is an inverse-U shape. We test this mechanism for the retail gasoline market using a new measure of information based on commuter data from Austria. Commuters sample gasoline prices on their commuting route, providing us with spatial variation in the share of informed consumers. Our empirical estimates are in line with the theoretical predictions. We also quantify how information affects average prices paid and the distribution of surplus in the gasoline market.