ADVERSE SELECTION IN DYNAMIC MATCHING MARKETS

We study the Akerlofian adverse selection problem in a dynamic matching model where the competitive situation varies across different meetings. The ‘lemons principle’ is shown to limit the high quality sales within a wider range of quality distributions than in the Walrasian benchmark. High quality goods can nevertheless be traded, albeit less frequently than the low quality goods. For certain quality distributions, there exists a ‘partially pooling’ steady state where high quality sellers are active whenever at least two buyers compete for the good. Otherwise, the model features cycles in a sense that high quality goods are traded only in non‐consecutive periods.     

MIDDLEMEN AND THE ADVERSE SELECTION PROBLEM

We demonstrate that the coexistence of an uncoordinated search market and a middleman market may alleviate adverse selection in the trade of goods of different quality. Inability to conduct trade penalizes sellers of low‐quality goods disproportionately, encouraging them to trade via middlemen. A semi‐separating equilibrium exists when a sufficient number of sellers of low‐quality goods choose the middleman market to allow high‐quality goods to be successfully traded in the search market. The result may explain why a search market can survive alongside a coordinated market, a phenomenon characteristic, for example, of markets for used cars, housing and labour.     

搜寻理论、失业救济金与中国城镇人口失业持续时间

通过对享受失业救济金者和不享受者失业救济金者的再就业概率的分析,我们可以发现,与享受失业救济金者相比,人力资本特征、家庭特征和宏观经济环境对不享受失业救济金者的再就业概率有显著正向影响,转换模型也得出了失业救济金会降低再就业概率、延长失业持续时间的结论。     

劳动力市场收入冲击对消费行为的影响

失业会造成不利的收入冲击,外部收入冲击会影响消费者的消费行为。失业对食品和教育支出的影响不同,平均而言,消费者对食品支出具有更强的修匀能力,教育水平对教育支出具有正向修匀作用。失业者实现再就业之后,食品支出比例显著下降,教育支出相对上升,失业持续时间对再就业者教育支出依然具有负向影响。女性失业会降低家庭的食品和教育支出比例,女性再就业后会提高家庭的教育支出。     

UNEMPLOYMENT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL WITH BARGAINING*

This paper develops a model which embeds the Nash-equilibrium version of McDonald and Solow's (1981) wage-bargaining model into an otherwise standard static equilibrium macro model. Equilibrium unemployment is possible. Real shocks to demand result in pro-cyclical employment and anti-cyclical real wage movements while money shocks are neutral. This is in some contrast to the results obtained by McDonald and Solow.     

INCENTIVE EFFICIENT PRICE SYSTEMS IN LARGE INSURANCE ECONOMIES WITH ADVERSE SELECTION

We decentralize incentive efficient allocations in large adverse selection economies by introducing a competitive market for mechanisms, that is, for menus of contracts. Facing a budget constraint, informed individuals purchase (lottery) tickets to enter mechanisms, whereas firms sell tickets and supply slots at mechanisms at given prices. Beyond optimization, market clearing, and rational expectations, an equilibrium requires that firms cannot favorably change, or cut, prices. An equilibrium exists and is incentive efficient. An equilibrium can be computed as the solution to a programming problem that selects the incentive efficient outcome preferred by the highest type within an appropriately defined set. For two‐types economies, this is the only equilibrium outcome.     

HYSTERESIS IN UNEMPLOYMENT REVISITED: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL LM UNIT ROOT TESTS WITH HETEROGENEOUS STRUCTURAL BREAKS

This paper applies the panel LM unit root tests with heterogeneous structural breaks in level by Im  et al. ( Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , 67 (2005), pp. 393–419) to re-examine the validity of hysteresis in the unemployment rates of 19 OECD countries. Our empirical findings are favourable to the stationarity of the unemployment rates, i.e., the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis is strongly rejected. Our results suggest that shocks to unemployment rates are temporary and soon converge when we control for breaks. A major policy implication of the study is that a fiscal or monetary stabilization policy would not have permanent effects on the unemployment rates of the 19 OECD countries.     

JOB FLOWS AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT MODEL WITH FIRM‐SPECIFIC SKILL TRAINING*

We introduce productivity enhancing firm‐specific skill training into the labour search model in which the firm‐specific skill training intensity and the job destruction rate are endogenously determined. It is shown that the higher the intensity of such training, the lower the rates of unemployment, job creation and job destruction. The paper's model provides a theoretical framework to understand the often mentioned peculiarity of the Japanese labour market; prevalently low rates of unemployment, job creation and job destruction in Japan are due to its training system which promotes workers to acquire firm‐specific skills.     

WHAT CAN CHANGES IN STRUCTURAL FACTORS TELL US ABOUT UNEMPLOYMENT IN EUROPE?

This paper examines the impact of temporal variation in labour market institutions and other structural factors on unemployment in Europe. A system comprising a labour demand and a wage equation is estimated on pooled time‐series data for the six largest EU countries for the 1980s and 1990s. The results suggest that changes in regional mismatch, trade union density and the ratio between consumer and producer prices are positively associated with structural unemployment. This result is robust to a wide variety of different specifications. No consistent role is found for other institutional factors (such as social security benefits, employment security and minimum wage).     

我国就业与失业的科学测量和实证研究

随着计划经济转向市场经济,我国劳动力市场出现了公布的就业和失业数据与劳动力市场实际状况不相吻合的现象,这说明我国还没有建立起一套科学的就业与失业的测量标准。因此,我们要从多维度完善我国的就业和失业测量体系。我们既要学习和吸收发达市场经济国家的经验和做法,更要正视我国作为一个发展中国家的国情,深入地研究和探讨发展中国家就业和失业测量的一些特点和规律。     

失业地区差异的新经济地理学模型分析

地区间失业状况存在较大差异是我国失业问题的一大特点,即失业率较低的地区多集中在东部,中西部地区失业率较高,东北地区失业率则一直居高不下。以此经济现象为出发点,在经济新地理学的中心—外围模型基础上,利用中间投入品来创造前向和后向联系,在效率工资模型框架基础上,构建了一个两地区、两部门关于交易成本和失业的模型。数理模型较好的解释了当前我国失业问题地区差异的空间特点,即短期来看,集聚的地方由于制造业的规模扩大,获得大量就业,而另外的地方则由于流出大量就业而承受失业。最后提出了相关政策建议。     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CAPITAL STOCK, UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES IN NINE EMU COUNTRIES

The focus of this paper is to investigate the importance of the capital stock in the determination of wages and unemployment in a range of EMU countries and to compare the results across countries. A time‐series analysis is conducted in the case of nine euro area countries, which were selected solely on the basis of data availability and consistency: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain. The paper begins with a short review of the literature on capital stock and unemployment, before it deals with the theoretical model. This is followed by estimation and testing of the theoretical model put forward, using both time‐series and panel data. The results are supportive of the main hypothesis of the paper: capital stock is an important determinant of unemployment and wages in the countries considered for the purposes of the paper.     

RECURSIVE EQUILIBRIA IN AN AIYAGARI‐STYLE ECONOMY WITH PERMANENT INCOME SHOCKS

We prove existence of a recursive competitive equilibrium (RCE) for an Aiyagari‐style economy with permanent income shocks and derive important economic implications. We show that there exist equilibria where borrowing constraints are never binding and establish a nontrivial lower bound on the equilibrium interest rate. These results imply distinct consumption dynamics compared to existing studies. We present a new approach to solve the agent's problem that uses lattices of consumption functions to deal with permanent income shocks and an unbounded utility function. The approach provides a theoretical foundation for convergence of the time iteration algorithm widely used in applied work.     

WELFARE AND MONETARY PRECOMMITMENT IN AN ECONOMY WITH MENU COSTS AND UNIONIZED WAGE SETTING

The paper shows that monetary precommitment can be advantageous to the government in a macroeconomic policy game where (i) the government's objectives are explicitly derived from those of the citizens, (ii) inflation has a real cost and (iii) the suboptimality of the output level arises from the structure of the private sector rather than from fiscal policy. It suggests that, to this extent, welfare interpretations of game theoretic monetary policy models are coherent.     

INFLOW OF FOREIGN CAPITAL AND TRADE LIBERALIZATION IN A MODEL WITH AN INFORMAL SECTOR AND URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT

Abstract.  The paper has made an attempt to analyse the effects of liberalized trade and investment policies on welfare and open unemployment in a developing economy in terms of a three sector Harris-Todaro type general equilibrium model. Following empirical evidence it is assumed that there is wage rigidity in urban sectors, which leads to the simultaneous existence of open unemployment and an urban informal sector in the migration equilibrium. The paper deserves special attention for its interesting results which are completely opposite to those generated by the standard Harris-Todaro model.     

STRUCTURAL SHIFTS IN UK UNEMPLOYMENT 1979–2005: THE TWIN IMPACTS OF FINANCIAL DEREGULATION AND COMPUTERIZATION

This paper analyses UK unemployment in the period 1979–2005. Structural breaks are identified endogenously and they coincide with key institutional changes associated with financial deregulation and computerization in the New Economy. A vector error correction model is estimated and it confirms that computerization and financial deregulation have had counteracting impacts on UK unemployment. The results are consistent with three hypotheses: technological advances associated with computerization have moderated inflationary struggles between firms and insiders by increasing total factor productivity; financial deregulation has generated financial fragility fostering rises in unemployment; financial deregulation and computerization together have been associated with shifts from manufacturing towards services, fostering structural unemployment.     

SECTORAL AND MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS IN A TWO GOOD OPEN ECONOMY WITH AN INTERMEDIATE INPUT*

A model of an open economy, in which two goods, a tradeable and a non-tradeable, are distinguished, is constructed. There is also an intermediate input (oil) which is both produced domestically and traded, and which is used as an input in the traded sector. There are two assets, money and internationally traded bonds. In the model the effects of various changes, including an increase in the money supply, and increases in both the world price of, and the domestic output of, oil, are analysed.     

SOME WELFARE IMPLICATIONS OF OPTIMAL STABILISATION POLICY IN AN ECONOMY WITH CAPITAL AND STICKY PRICES

In this paper we review and extend some of the key lessons that seem to be emerging from the Ramsey‐inspired theory of dynamic optimal monetary and fiscal policies. We construct measures of the key distortions in our economy; we label these ‘dynamic wedges’. Inflation, actual or anticipated, distorts these wedges in the present period, shrinks the tax base and increases the deadweight loss. We show that, if possible, labour as well as capital ought to be subsidised in steady state. We point to a number of extensions to the Ramsey literature that may help in the formulation of actual policy.     

技术进步对我国产出失业关系的影响分析

最近十几年来,我国经济出现了高增长和高失业并存的现象。可分劳动动态随机一般均衡模型模拟结果表明,技术进步促进了产出增长,同时也促进了就业增长,但对就业增长的促进作用明显小于对产出增长的促进作用,同时与技术进步相伴的资本投入也对劳动起到了替代作用。在经济活动人口不断增加的背景下,技术进步对产出和就业增长影响的不对称性,是我国高增长和高失业并存的重要原因。