Structural economic dynamics: an alternative approach to North-South models

This paper isolates the mechanisms responsible for the difficultiesfacing poor regions in growing faster than rich ones. The analysisof uneven development is carried out in a framework where changesin demand composition are consistent with Engel's Law. The standpointof the analysis is the interaction between technical progress—whichproduces responses in per capita income—and changes ofper capita consumption. The paper focuses on one case in whichpreferences are homothetic and there is capital dependence,showing that the latter assumption is sufficient to explainthe inequalities between poor and rich regions. When dealingwith the case of non-homothetic tastes, adverse movements inthe terms of trade and the international demonstration effect,which are both due to the inelastic demand for goods producedby poor regions, are the mechanisms responsible for uneven development.     

Satiation in an evolutionary model of structural economic dynamics

This paper presents the problem of satiation of consumption and technology in relation to a model of evolutionary endogenous growth. The model represents an attempt to provide an evolutionary economic micro foundation to Pasinetti's scheme of the structural economic dynamics of an economy that is based on only labour and knowledge. The micro foundation is based on a set of rules that makes endogenous the demand coefficients, the labour coefficients, and the number of available sectors. Through process innovations firms increase their productivities with respect to individual goods, but a growth slowdown takes place unless the benefits from specialisation are exploited at still higher levels. Another cause for slowdown is related to an Engelian hierarchy of goods. As the standard of living grows, existing sectors and consumption goods satiate, so new sectors need to be provided by product innovations in a sufficient pace to keep up with the labour that is displaced from old sectors.     

对外开放与中国经济增长关系的实证研究

Based on an adjusted Solow economic growth model, using econometric tools such as cointegration test and Granger causality test, taking the economic factors such as foreign trade and foreign investment into account, this paper makes regression analysis on the effect of economic opening on China’s economic growth by using the data from 1985 to 2004. The analysis indicates that the domestic capital input is still the primary element that promotes China’s economic growth, by contrast, the effect of foreign trade and foreign investment is faint. It is a bidirectional causality between foreign trade and economic growth, and the adjusting velocity of trade is larger than the foreign direct investment on the balance of the China’s long-time economic growth.      

Resource constraint,sustainable economic growth pattern and transformation of economic system in China

Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more andmore important role in economic development. The energy and resource consumption in many industries and enterprisesare reducing. However, we should realize that there are still many problems in changing the economic growth pattern,such as high input, high consumption, high discharge, inharmony, recycling difficulty, and low efficiency, which havegreatly impaired and restrict Chinese economic development. Therefore, the fundamental change of the economic growthpattern is inevitable. Based on the analysis on the status quo and the exploit of resources, this paper suggests that thetransformation from unsustainable to sustainable growth is the only choice in changing the economic growth pattern. Inaddition, the transformation should not completely rely on the fundamental effects of market mechanism. We should makefull use of the power of governments to speed up the transformation of economic system.     

Adaptive economic growth

This paper develops an evolutionary theory of adaptive growth,understood as a product of structural change and economic self-transformation,based upon processes that are closely connected with but notreducible to the growth of knowledge. The dominant connectingtheme is enterprise, the innovative variations it generatesand the multiple connections between investment, innovation,demand and structural transformation in the market process.The paper explores the dependence of macroeconomic productivitygrowth on the diversity of technical progress functions andincome elasticities of demand at the industry level, and theresolution of this diversity into patterns of economic changethrough market processes. It is shown how industry growth ratesare constrained by higher-order processes of emergence thatconvert an ensemble of industry growth rates into an aggregaterate of growth. The growth of productivity, output and employmentare determined mutually and endogenously, and their values dependon the variation in the primary causal influences in the system.     

A re-examination of financial development,stock markets development and economic growth

This study provides new evidence on the role of financial development and stock market development in accounting for economic growth across geographic regions and income groups. To derive feasible policy implications, we estimate not only unbalanced panel regressions with period fixed effects, but also variance decompositions of annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates to examine what proxy measures are most important in economic growth over time and how much they contribute to economic growth. We find distinct direction, timing and strength of the causal links between financial development, stock market development and economic growth based on the results of Granger causality tests. Therefore, it may be necessary to make different efforts to achieve steady economic growth across geographic regions and income groups.     

Material implication of Chile's economic growth: Combining material flow accounting (MFA) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA)

Over the last three decades, the economic integration of the Chilean economy into global markets has been taking place at a rapid pace. For example, in 1986, exports represented 29% of GDP while in 1996 they had increased to 38% of GDP. This period of time was characterized by strong economic growth with an average annual growth rate of about 10%. From a physical perspective, material requirements more than doubled from 220 to 500 million tons of direct material inputs (DMI) during the same decade (the rate of material growth requirements was around 13% per year).The main objective of this study is to explain the changes in DMI by using a structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The changes in material flow accounting (MFA) were broken down into the effects caused by changes in resource use per unit of output (material intensity effect), changes between and within sectors (structural change effect), changes in the composition of final demand (mix effect), changes due to shifting shares of domestic final demand and export categories (category effect) and finally changes in the overall level of economic activities (level effects). The results, as a percentage of the total level of DMI used in 1986, indicate that economic growth was the major source of material changes (109%). The material intensity and category effects explained 31% and 14% of the increase, respectively. The increase in the material intensity is mainly due to a declining quality of ores in copper production. However, these components were partly compensated by the structure (− 14%) and mix (− 13%) effects. Therefore, for a Southern American country such as Chile, the main causes of these changes in material consumption have been a combination of the nature of economic growth along with an increase in export production and material intensity of production.     

Harrod's dynamics and the theory of growth: the story of a mistaken attribution

Post-Keynesian growth theory is normally seen as originatingfrom Harrod's 1939 'Essay in Dynamic Theory'. Harrod, however,was trying to lay the foundations of a new approach to economicdynamics, and often complained of misinterpretation. In thispaper, the grounds of Harrod's argument are examined and comparedwith the 'textbook' interpretation. The latter is shown to beextremely reductive, as it ignores both Harrod's interest inthe trade cycle and his methodological criticism of the 'time-lagtheories of the cycle', and it also underrates the interestingimplications of his non-linear approach and the epistemic implicationsof the instability principle.     

Financial development,economic growth and convergence clubs

To study the role of financial development in economic growth, we apply an array of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real outputs per capita. Strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs is observed, implying that the clubs are formed based on the initial level of real output per capita and average growth rate. Our empirical results show that the stage of economic growth of each country plays an important role for the composition of the convergence clubs. Furthermore, financial development emerges to be a significant determinant, albeit plays differently in the economic growth of each convergence club.     

Interrelationships among banks,stock markets and economic growth: an empirical investigation

This article utilizes a simultaneous equations model to study the relationships among economic growth, banking and stock market development. In contrast to conventional instrumental variable approach, we implement the analysis via the methodology of identification through heteroscedasticity. Using Beck and Levine (2004 Beck, T. and Levine, R. (2004) Stock markets, banks and growth:panel evidence, Journal of Banking and Finance, 28, 423–42.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) dataset, we find that each of the three variables interacts in important ways. While both are conducive to economic growth, banking development matters more for growth in low-income countries and stock market development is more favourable to growth in high-income or low-inflation ones. The data also reveal coexistence of a positive effect of banking development on stock market development and a negative effect of stock market development on banking development. Besides, the feedback effects of growth on both banking and stock market development are found.     

The impacts of China on economic growth: Evidence for Brazil,Chile, and Peru

This study empirically analyzes the direct impacts derived from the swift increase in exports to China (referred to as “the impact of China”) on the economic growth of three selected South American countries, Brazil, Chile, and Peru, during the commodity boom between 2001 and 2008. The results stemming from the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model suggest that the magnitude of China’s impact was less than 1 percent, although it ranged from the largest to the second largest impact among all trading partners for the three countries. The estimated balance-of-payments growth rate of domestic income is lower than the real growth rate of domestic income. This is because the growth rates of the export volumes were not sufficient even during the commodity boom, on account of the continued increasing trends of income elasticity of demand for imports. Furthermore, the income elasticities of demand for imports from China were especially high. Therefore, the three countries will continue to face further increase in the income elasticity of demand for imports as well as a stagnant growth rate of export volumes. Thus, the balance-of-payments position will continue to be the main growth constraint for these countries.     

An empirical analysis of the relationship between economic development and population growth in China

China has experienced a dramatic demographic transition since the latter half of the twentieth century, and thus, assessing the global economic implications is an important issue. This article uses time-series data on China to estimate the determinants of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. According to the results of the presented co-integration analysis, population has a significantly negative impact on GDP per capita, while savings rate, total factor productivity and degree of industrialization have significantly positive impacts on GDP per capita. These results suggest that the share of the working-age population relative to the total population does not have a strong influence on GDP per capita. Therefore, the contribution of the working-age population to economic growth might not be as large as previously assumed. It is also possible that an increase in savings, remarkable industrialization and rapid technological progress have all stimulated economic growth in China greatly.     

Foreign debt and economic growth

This paper empirically examines the relationship between government foreign debt and the growth rate of per capita GDP based on a total sample of 77 countries, as well as sub‐samples of various regions. Cross‐sectional estimates of the coefficient of foreign debt based on the total sample have a negative sign, but are not always statistically significant. Available data from African countries indicate that foreign debt and the growth rate of per capita GDP were negatively related at a high level of significance. For industrialized and Latin American sub‐samples, this relationship is negative but statistically insignificant. The sub‐sample Asian and other developing countries show a positive but insignificant relationship. JEL classification: F34, H6, O23.     

人力资本结构对经济增长贡献率的实证分析

建立人力资本结构对经济增长贡献率的计量模型,采用相关数据对该模型进行实证分析。结果表明：中等教育对我国经济增长的贡献率较高,高等教育相对较小。因此,建立模型分析不同受教育年限的人力资本对经济增长的贡献率就非常具有现实意义。     

Political instability and economic growth

This paper investigates the relationship between political instability and per capita GDP growth in a sample of 113 countries for the period 1950 through 1982. We define political instability as the propensity of a government collapse, and we estimate a model in which such a measure of political instability and economic growth are jointly determined. The main result of this paper is that in countries and time periods with a high propensity of government collapse, growth is significantly lower than otherwise. We also discuss the effects of different types of government changes on growth.     

The allocation of volatile aid and economic growth: Theory and evidence

We analyse, both theoretically and empirically, the growth effects associated with two components of volatile foreign financial assistance: ‘directly productive’ (or ‘tied’) aid and ‘pure’ aid. We find that scenarios in which aid can hurt the recipient's growth rate emerge only in cases where foreign aid is volatile. As a result, we conclude that it is only in conjunction with the presence of aid variability that aid allocation determines whether foreign aid hurts or promotes long-run growth.     

Population and economic growth: a simultaneous equation perspective

This article examines the relationship between Population Growth (PG) and Economic Growth (EG) in the framework of simultaneous structural equation models. Based on Lewbel (2012), the structural parameters can be estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Identification requires a heteroscedastic covariance restriction that appears in some models of endogeneity, measurement errors and panel data. This study obtains several findings. First, the current and lagged variables of PG negatively and positively affect EG in the short run. Second, PG does not significantly influence EG in the long run. Third, the reverse relations running from EG to PG are weak in both the short and long run, regardless of economic development conditions.     

A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China

Currently, traditional development issues such as income inequality, depletion of natural resources, environmental pollution as well as retardation of infrastructure have occurred in China. In the future, more pressures would be imposed on China by the continuous fast development of industrialization, and with transfer of the world manufacture center to China. Sustainable development, including its economic, environmental and social elements, is a key goal of decisionmakers. This paper develops a methodology on cost benefit analysis of economic growth at macroscopic level to identify issues of China's sustainability. In order to address some important issues on how to make policies to improve the quality of economic growth, the CBA framework developed in this study analyses economic-ecological-social interaction, building three accounts that reflect three dimensions of sustainable development that includes 26 sub-models in all, and finally is integrated into an index as Net Progress Proceeds (NPP). The estimation methods of these submodels, such as cost of environmental pollution, depletion of natural resources and defensive expenditures are described in detail. Based on the framework and methods, this paper examines the costs and benefits of economic growth in three aspects of economy, ecology and society. The results illustrate that NPR of China's economic growth had been negative for a long time and has just became positive since year 2000 but was quite low. Even the best was only 1.6% in 2002 (the worst was − 24.2% in 1982). Based on the comparison between three accounts, we can draw a conclusion that ecological cost is the dominant factor that affects China's NPR. The empirical results show that if no other innovative measures or policies are taken in the future the costs of growth would outweigh its benefits, resulting in un-sustainability. Basically, the long-term economic growth would be unsustainable due to increasing environmental damage and depletion of natural resources. There are a few limitations that we consider need to be improved in our CBA framework and method, nevertheless they have many options that can be explored by policy makers, to make the development path more sustainable.     

北京的经济发展及其增长因素分析

建国以来，北京经济的发展发生了巨大的变化。对于经济增长的因素，主要表现在劳动力数量增加的变化和技术退步等方面。经济发展由资本和劳动力数量的增大等外延的发展形态转换为内涵的发展状态，即劳动力素质的改善、技术的追步以及资本集约度的上升等作为积极因素促进经济的增长。