Are Investors Sensitive to the Quality and the Disclosure of Financial Statements?

This paper investigates the influence of Swiss firms'disclosure policy and of their financial analysts'coverage on stock price abnormal reactions to thepublication of the annual reports. It first showsthat, after controlling for the number of analysts,the absolute abnormal returns are significantly andpositively affected by the rating measure used as aproxy of the informational quality of annual reports.It furthermore emphasises asymmetry in therelationship between stock price abnormal reactionsand two informational variables, namely the quality ofthe firm's disclosure policy and its financialanalysts' coverage. It appears that while positiveabnormal returns are significantly and positivelyrelated to the rating variable, negative abnormalreturns are only affected by the number of financialanalysts. The inverse relationship between abnormalnegative returns and the financial analysts' coveragesupports the fact that competition among analystsreduces investors' adverse selection problem. Finally,the study evidences a non-linear relationship betweenrating and positive abnormal returns which ismeaningful for the ``good' and ``very good type' firmsand thus emphasises the signaling role played by afirm's financial disclosure policy.     

Are Investors Sensitive to the Quality and the Disclosure of Financial Statements?

This paper investigates the influence of Swiss firms' disclosurepolicy and of their financial analysts' coverage on stock priceabnormal reactions to the publication of the annual reports.It first shows that, after controlling for the number of analysts,the absolute abnormal returns are significantly and positivelyaffected by the rating measure used as a proxy of the informationalquality of annual reports. It furthermore emphasises asymmetryin the relationship between stock price abnormal reactions andtwo informational variables, namely the quality of the firm'sdisclosure policy and its financial analysts' coverage. It appearsthat while positive abnormal returns are significantly and positivelyrelated to the rating variable, negative abnormal returns areonly affected by the number of financial analysts. The inverserelationship between abnormal negative returns and the financialanalysts' coverage supports the fact that competition amonganalysts reduces investors' adverse selection problem. Finally,the study evidences a non-linear relationship between ratingand positive abnormal returns which is meaningful for the "good"and "very good type" firms and thus emphasises the signalingrole played by a firm's financial disclosure policy.     

Financial Institutions and Non‐Governmental Organizations: An Advocacy Partnership for Sustainable Capital Markets?

In this article, the Chief Responsibility Officer for Aviva Investors examines the potential for financial institutions (FIs) to work in partnership with non‐governmental organizations (NGOs) in advocating changes to public policy that promote sustainable capital markets. Many NGOs have argued that the current form of global economic growth is unsustainable—and they routinely engage in public policy advocacy. However, such advocacy has generally proved ineffective, in large part because most NGOs have a very limited understanding of how capital markets function. Investors, for their part, are increasingly recognizing that key aspects of the global economy are on an unsustainable footing. And some are concerned about the negative implications for the long‐term value of their assets. But with a few notable exceptions, they have not made systematic efforts to work with governments to correct the market failures. NGO‐FI advocacy partnerships could identify specific cases of systemic or sectoral market failures, and recommend long‐term changes to the sectoral operating environment that would affect the cash flows and values of companies operating within that sector in ways designed to “internalize” the effects of negative social and environmental externalities. To foster the development of such partnerships, there is a need for academia to develop learning forums that stimulate the exchange of ideas between the executives within NGOs and FIs in an environment of mutual trust and respect.     

Are Financial Reports Useful? The Views of New Zealand Public Versus Private Users

This study reports on surveys conducted with users of financial reports in New Zealand. We compare findings for users of reports of two types of for‐profit entities, namely those with public accountability (public entities) and those with no public accountability (private entities). The findings indicate that both types of users have similar perceptions regarding the usefulness of financial statements, with the income statement and balance sheet rated as the most useful components. Furthermore, both types of users, especially private users, perceive financial statements as the most important information source for decision making. Public users have a greater interest in supplementary information than private users. The findings of this study contribute to the debate around differential reporting for private companies and have policy implications with regard to the user‐needs approach to accounting standard setting.     

Do Firms Use Time‐Vested Stock‐Based Pay to Keep Research and Development Investments Secret?

I find that executives’ unvested equity holdings are larger when executives are employed by R&D‐intensive firms in industries that rely more on secrecy to profit from R&D. Moreover, I find that this relation is more pronounced for executives with a greater ability to exploit R&D‐related information and also holds for nonexecutive employees. In addition, I find that these firms use option grants with longer vesting periods and that unvested equity holdings reduce the likelihood that their executives leave to find employment elsewhere. Overall, my findings are consistent with firms using time‐vested stock‐based pay to reduce the leakage of R&D‐related information to competitors through employee mobility.     

Do Industry‐Level Analyses Improve Forecasts of Financial Performance?

Prior research documents mean reversion in firm profitability and growth under the implicit assumption that profitability and growth of all firms revert to a common benchmark at the same rate. However, a large body of academic research suggests that there are systematic interindustry differences (e.g., industry barriers to entry) that differentially affect firm performance based on industry membership. We evaluate the relative forecast accuracy of mean reverting models at the industry and economywide levels and find that industry-specific models are generally more accurate in predicting firm growth but not profitability.     

Are Trade Size‐Based Inferences About Traders Reliable? Evidence from Institutional Earnings‐Related Trading

The use of observed transaction sizes to differentiate between “small” and “large” investor trading patterns is widespread. A significant concern in such studies is spurious effects attributable to misclassification of transactions, particularly those originating from large investors. Such effects can arise unintentionally, strategically, or endogenously. We examine comprehensive records of a sample of institutional investors (i.e., “large” traders), including their order sizes and overall position changes, to assess the degree to which such misclassifications give rise to spurious inferences about “small” and “large” investor trading activities. Our analysis shows that these institutions are heavily involved in small transaction activity. It also shows that they increase their order sizes substantially in announcement periods relative to nonannouncement periods, presumably as an endogenous response to earnings news. In the immediate earnings announcement period, transaction size‐based inferences about directional trading are quite misleading—producing spurious “small trader” effects and, more surprisingly, erroneous inferences about “large trader” activity.     

IPO or SBO?: The Increasing Importance of Operational Performance for Private Equity Exits Following the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08

The authors report the findings of their recent study of the role of portfolio company operating performance in determining the choice of exit options by private equity firms between initial public offerings (IPOs) and secondary buyouts (SBOs), and how that role may have changed since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008. Virtually all studies of PE exits in all countries have found that portfolio companies that exit through IPOs tend to be larger and have higher operating returns than companies that exit through SBOs or sales to other companies. After examining the exits of PE portfolio companies based in Denmark and Sweden during the period 2003–2013, the authors report that, although general market conditions continue to be a major factor, operating performance and size have become even more important requirements for IPO exits since the crisis. And thus PE firms that fail to make operating improvements in their portfolio companies are likely to find their exit options limited.     

The Global Financial Crisis and the European Single Market: The end of integration?

Using various versions of the Feldstein-Horioka (FH) coefficient, we measure the time-varying degree of capital mobility and economic integration in the European Union. Prior research shows high correlation between domestic investment and savings implying low capital mobility. This surprising result has led to subsequent research on the ‘Feldstein-Horioka puzzle’. Our empirical findings show that the puzzle is less puzzling with a coefficient of 0.52 in the period 1990–1995 in EU countries approaching its minimum value of 0.02 in the period 2003–2008. This clearly indicates that the FH coefficient is time-varying signalling a deepening of economic integration in the European Union. Yet, with the advent of the Global Financial Crisis the FH coefficient has increased to 0.26 underlining worrying signs of disintegration.     

A Special Breed?– A Longitudinal and Cross‐Sectional Study of Norwegian Budgeting and Financial Civil Servants

Abstract: This paper focuses on civil servants in the central Norwegian civil service whose main tasks are budgeting, supervision and accounting. The main research questions are: (a) What is their typical demographic profile? (b) How has their demographic profile changed over time? (c) What are the effects of having budgeting, supervising and accounting as a main task on civil servants’ attitudes and behaviour? The main findings are that they have a specific profile. There are significant differences between ministries and central agencies as well as changes over time and also marked differences with other civil servants regarding their attitudes and behavior.     

Stock Return Predictability of Residual‐Income‐Based Valuation: Risk or Mispricing?

In an influential paper, Frankel and Lee (1998) conclude that the stock return predictability of the value‐to‐price ratio (V/P) results from market mispricing. This paper confirms whether the V/P reflects the rational risk premiums associated with the V/P factor or is better explained by market inefficiency. Following Daniel and Titman (1997), this paper examines whether the V/P characteristics or the V/P factor loadings predict stock returns. The findings show that the V/P loadings are positively associated with average returns even after controlling for the V/P characteristics in both time series and cross‐sectional tests. The overall results suggest that the mispricing explanation of the V/P effect is premature.     

Are Stock‐for‐Stock Acquirers of Unlisted Targets Really Less Overvalued?

Extant studies assume that targets’ private ownership mitigates acquirers’ incentives and opportunities to finance acquisitions with inflated stocks. This view stems from the observation that, although the average stock‐for‐stock acquirer's merger announcement return is negative when the target is listed, it is positive when the target is unlisted. Accordingly, extant studies often suggest that announcements of stock‐for‐stock acquisitions of unlisted targets convey favorable private information about the acquirers. However, an analysis of stock‐for‐stock acquirers’ stock performance, abnormal accruals, net operating assets, and insider trading suggests the opposite. Acquirers of unlisted targets are generally more overvalued than acquirers of listed targets.     

What Is the Cost of Financial Flexibility? Theory and Evidence for Make‐Whole Call Provisions

Firms commonly incorporate make-whole call provisions in their newly issued debt, presumably to improve their ability to retire debt early if circumstances require. In return for increased financial flexibility, firms must compensate bondholders with additional (incremental) yield. To estimate theoretical incremental yields, we use and calibrate a structural model for a large sample of callable and noncallable US corporate bonds issued between 1995 and 2004. In a frictionless model where calls occur only when they are in-the-money, theoretical incremental yields average approximately 2 basis points (bp). In an extended model that incorporates taxes, transactions costs, and randomly occurring exogenous events requiring early bond retirement, incremental yields average approximately 5 bp. Empirical analysis, however, indicates that observed incremental yields are significantly greater than model-generated values, averaging between 13 and 24 bp. In the later years of our sample period, however, observed incremental yields begin to converge to model-generated values.     

Does Accounting Treatment of Share‐based Payments Impact Performance Measures for Banks?

This paper identifies, evaluates and analyses the resulting impact of mandatory expensing of share‐based compensation (SBC) under IFRS2/FASB123R on a set of widely used performance measures in the EU and US banking industry. The paper shows that the accounting treatment of SBC schemes, following the mandatory adoption of IFRS2/FAS123R, has a statistically significant negative impact on the selected performance measures over the period 2004–11. The impact also seems to be material, yet modest, for US banks and only for large and high‐growth EU banks, indicating that earlier public concerns and criticisms of the implementation of IFRS2/FAS123R are largely unsubstantiated. The findings also show that banks continue to use SBC, but there is a reduction, albeit insignificant, in the recognised SBC expense over the period 2009–11. That is, earlier public concerns that firms would curtail employing SBC in their employees’ compensation schemes to avoid the effect of SBC expense recognition on their financial ratios came to light after the first option life‐cycle in the post‐adoption period was over. The findings also show a marked movement towards using cash‐settled‐based payments, possibly due to their manipulative accounting treatment, a potentially interesting issue for related accounting research and accounting standard setters.     

What Drives the Disposition Effect? An Analysis of a Long‐Standing Preference‐Based Explanation

We investigate whether prospect theory preferences can predict a disposition effect. We consider two implementations of prospect theory: in one case, preferences are defined over annual gains and losses; in the other, they are defined over realized gains and losses. Surprisingly, the annual gain/loss model often fails to predict a disposition effect. The realized gain/loss model, however, predicts a disposition effect more reliably. Utility from realized gains and losses may therefore be a useful way of thinking about certain aspects of individual investor trading.     

The Puzzle of Persistently Negative Interest‐Rate–Growth Differentials: Financial Repression or Income Catch‐Up?

The interest‐rate–growth differential (IRGD) plays a critical role in determining the sustainability of government debt. Yet it is striking that IRGDs are correlated with income levels, and are generally negative in emerging and developing economies, which contradicts standard economic theory. Negative IRGDs constitute a powerful debt‐stabilising force, driving down debt ratios or keeping them stable even in the presence of persistent primary deficits. Motivated by the puzzling facts, this paper examines the IRGDs for a large panel of advanced and non‐advanced economies by utilising a newly assembled data set. The evidence shows that large negative IRGDs in emerging and developing economies are largely due to real interest rates well below market equilibrium – stemming from financial repression and captive and distorted markets – whereas the income catch‐up process plays a relatively modest role. Therefore, the IRGD in non‐advanced economies is likely to rise with financial market development and financial global integration, perhaps even before their GDP per capita converges to advanced‐economy levels.     

Has Financial Regulation Been a Flop? (or How to Reform Dodd‐Frank)

Recent bank regulations have imposed large compliance costs on banks of all sizes, and have increased the costs of borrowing to both consumers and companies. But in this summary of his recent book, the author argues that the problems with banking system regulation go well beyond the excessive costs. Indeed, Dodd‐Frank and other post‐crisis regulatory reforms have failed to address the major shortcomings that produced the crisis of 2007–2009. Most importantly, excessive housing finance risk was not dealt with adequately, and is already on the rise again. And prudential standards for banks, while much stricter, remain unreliable in a severe economic downturn. After providing evidence of the shortcomings of major parts of the regulatory structure created after 2008, the author points to fundamental problems in the thinking underlying the post‐crisis regulatory changes that made those reforms unlikely to succeed. Moreover, he argues that the new processes of financial regulation have fostered many abuses of the rule of law, which have politicized regulation, adding to its cost and discrediting important supervisory and regulatory agencies. The author suggests that simpler, more effective, less costly, and more respectable approaches to regulation are possible. He offers a set of principles to guide reform and proposes over 20 specific actions that would enhance the effectiveness, reduce the costs, and improve the processes of bank regulation.     

Growth and Public Debt: What Are the Relevant Trade‐Offs?

The interplay between growth and public debt is addressed considering a Barro‐type (1990) endogenous growth model where public spendings are financed through taxes on income and public debt. The government has a target level of public debt relative to GDP, and the long‐run debt‐to‐GDP ratio is used as a policy parameter. We show that when debt is a large enough proportion of GDP, two distinct balanced‐growth paths (BGPs) may coexist, one being indeterminate. We exhibit two types of important trade‐offs associated with self‐fulfilling expectations. First, we show that the lowest BGP is always decreasing with respect to the debt‐to‐GDP ratio while the highest one is increasing. Second, we show that the highest BGP, which provides the highest welfare, is always locally indeterminate while the lowest is always locally determinate. Therefore, local and global indeterminacy may arise and self‐fulfilling expectations appear as a crucial ingredient to understand the impact of debt on growth, welfare, and macroeconomic fluctuations. Finally, a simple calibration exercise allows to provide an understanding of the recent experiences of many OECD countries.