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1.
ANDRA GHENT 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2012,44(5):931-955
This paper asks why monetary contractions have strong effects on the housing market. The paper presents a model with staggered housing adjustment in which monetary policy has real effects in the absence of any rigidity in producer pricing or wages. Limited participation in financial markets leads to a rise in the real mortgage rate following an increase in the nominal short rate. Since households must take on a mortgage to consume housing, the rise in the real interest rate reduces the share of residential investment in output. 相似文献
2.
This paper studies loss given default using a large set of historical loan-level default and recovery data of high loan-to-value residential mortgages from several private mortgage insurance companies. We show that loss given default can largely be explained by various characteristics associated with the loan, the underlying property, and the default, foreclosure, and settlement process. We find that the current loan-to-value ratio is the single most important determinant. More importantly, mortgage loss severity in distressed housing markets is significantly higher than under normal housing market conditions. These findings have important policy implications for several key issues in Basel II implementation. 相似文献
3.
Andrea J. Heuson Adam Schwartz V. Carlos Slawson 《The Journal of Financial Research》2006,29(4):593-608
We provide empirical evidence that quoted secondary market mortgage yields conform to the predictions of option theory. We compare Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac origination yields offered in the secondary market from 1985 to 2003 with the predictions of a two‐state binomial mortgage option valuation model. Our two‐state approach considers a mean‐reverting interest rate process as well as a stochastic housing price. Using predictions from option simulations, we find strong links between market practice and mortgage option prepayment and default factors over time. We also find cross‐sectional differences that are consistent with the institutional structure of the markets. 相似文献
4.
What are the macroeconomic and distributional effects of government bailout guarantees for Government Sponsored Enterprises (e.g., Fannie Mae)? A model with heterogeneous, infinitely lived households and competitive housing and mortgage markets is constructed to evaluate this question. Households can default on their mortgages via foreclosure. The bailout guarantee is a tax-financed mortgage interest rate subsidy. Eliminating this subsidy leads to a large decline in mortgage origination and increases aggregate welfare by 0.5% in consumption equivalent variation, but has little effect on foreclosure rates and housing investment. The interest rate subsidy is a regressive policy: it hurts low-income and low-asset households. 相似文献
5.
Sanjay Ramchander Marc W. Simpson James R. Webb 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2003,27(3):355-377
The study analyzes the influence of macroeconomic news announcements on (a) interest rates for commercial mortgages, residential mortgages, 10-year Treasury notes, and Baa-rated corporate bonds; and (b) corresponding mortgage spreads. It is both interesting and highly relevant from a policy and portfolio management standpoint to examine the implications of the influence of macroeconomic news announcements on mortgage markets. Some important results are reported. First, consistent with the notion of market integration, mortgage rates are found to be co-integrated with other capital market instruments. Second, of the 22 types of periodic macroeconomic news releases considered, 13 of them have a significant influence on at least one of the interest rates, and notably changes in hourly earnings and housing starts significantly influence all debt-security yields. More generally, macroeconomic news that conveys higher inflation and/or economic growth has a positive influence on mortgage and other interest rates. Finally, this study finds several announcements including durable goods orders, new home sales, personal consumption, non-farm payroll, trade balance and Treasury budget to have a significant influence on mortgage spreads. 相似文献
6.
DWIGHT M. JAFFEE 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2015,47(Z1):59-67
The United States and certain European countries (e.g., Ireland and Spain) have recently experienced serious distress in their residential mortgage markets. Public policy has responded with interventions to limit the deadweight costs of mortgage foreclosures, but with limited success. There are also open questions with respect to long‐term reforms in mortgage market structures. In this paper, I make use of the important differences that exist between U.S. and European mortgage markets to help identify those aspects of residential mortgage markets that are most in need of reform. 相似文献
7.
We study the development of asset securitization markets in China. We manually collect all asset securitization projects and securities data from 2005 to 2015. Inspection of this sample combined with related policy changes reveals distinct characteristics and some potential problems. At the macro level, asset securitization market in China is policy driven, regulation‐segmented, and highly illiquid. At the micro level, the underlying assets are mainly corporate loans or assets, rather than mortgage or consumption loans as in the US and European markets. State owned commercial banks and enterprises enjoy significantly lower interest rates when issuing securitization bonds. Finally, risk‐isolation and credit enhancing techniques significantly improve the rating of asset‐backed securities. 相似文献
8.
JOSE M. BERROSPIDE LAMONT K. BLACK WILLIAM R. KEETON 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2016,48(5):957-988
This study investigates the mortgage lending of banks operating in multiple U.S. metropolitan areas during the housing market collapse of 2007–09. We show that multimarket banks reduced local portfolio lending in response to high overall mortgage delinquencies in their other markets, consistent with the view that local economic shocks can be transmitted to other regions through banks’ internal capital markets. This spillover was greatest when the bank lacked a branch presence and when the market was highly peripheral to the bank in terms of its total mortgage lending. These effects were not fully offset by securitization or other portfolio lenders. 相似文献
9.
This paper studies the joint transitional dynamics of the foreclosures and house prices in a standard life‐cycle incomplete markets model with housing and a realistic long‐term mortgage structure. We calibrate our model to match several long‐term features of the U.S. housing market, and analyze the effects of several unexpected and permanent shocks on the house price and the foreclosure rate both across the steady states and along the transition between the steady states. We examine permanent, unexpected shocks to the risk‐free interest rate, the minimum down‐payment ratio, and unemployment. During the transition, these shocks create large movements in house prices. More importantly, the foreclosure dynamics are quite significant along the transition compared to the steady‐state changes, and there are strong feedbacks between foreclosures and house prices. We assess the effects of a temporary reduction in the risk‐free interest rate, which has moderate effects on house prices but little effect on foreclosure dynamics. We also study the effects of an ex ante macroprudential policy, which establishes a minimum down‐payment requirement at a higher threshold. Such a macroprudential policy helps substantially stabilize both house prices and foreclosures. 相似文献
10.
In this article the price-setting behavior of the district Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs) is investigated. Previous studies have viewed the FHLB system as a policy authority that sets the interest rate on FHLB advances in an attempt to stabilize mortgage and housing markets. In this study a profit-maximizing model of FHLB behavior is developed and empirically tested, and the results compared to a model of the FHLB system as a policy authority. The empirical results offer support for the hypothesis of profit-maximizing behavior and indicate that, in addition to the FHLB's cost of funds, factors that influence thrift demand for FHLB advances, deposits, and capital stock are important in explaining FHLB choice variables. 相似文献
11.
Ming Pu Gang-Zhi Fan Yongheng Deng 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2014,48(3):492-521
Since the loan limit of a reverse mortgage is a major concern for the borrower as well as the lender, this paper attempts to develop an option-based model to evaluate the loan limits of reverse mortgages. Our model can identify several crucial determinants for reverse mortgage loan limits, such as initial housing price, expected housing price growth, house price volatility, mortality distribution, and interest rates. We also pay special attention to the important implication of mortgage lenders’ informational advantage over reverse mortgage borrowers concerning housing market risk. In reverse mortgage markets, the elderly borrowers typically hold far less, relative to the lenders, or no information about the lenders’ underlying mortgage pools. Such information asymmetry leads these two categories of market participants to generate different perspectives on the risk of the collateralized properties, which can be identified to be important in determining the maximum loan amounts of reverse mortgages. We further find that the maximum loan amount of a reverse mortgage decreases in the correlation between the returns on the pooled underlying housing properties but increases with the number of the pooled mortgages. 相似文献
12.
This paper investigates how changes in the central bank policy and retail mortgage rates affected real housing prices in New Zealand during the period 1999–2009. We find that real interest rates are significantly and positively related to real housing prices, indicating that increases in the policy rate may not be effective in depressing real housing prices. By testing interest rates, we also find some evidence of housing price bubbles. Our findings suggest that the central bank could have limited housing price bubbles if it had started to intervene in the housing market prior to 2003. Our results set international exemplars for using policy rates or macroprudential tools to cool the housing market, where the extent of policy rate adjustments is limited by internal or external economic factors. 相似文献
13.
Determinants of Mortgage Default and Consumer Credit Use: The Effects of Foreclosure Laws and Foreclosure Delays
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SEWIN CHAN ANDREW HAUGHWOUT ANDREW HAYASHI WILBERT VAN DER KLAAUW 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2016,48(2-3):393-413
The mortgage default decision is part of a complex household credit management problem. We examine how factors affecting mortgage default spill over to other credit markets. As home equity turns negative, homeowners default on mortgages and home equity lines of credit at higher rates, whereas they prioritize repaying credit cards and auto loans. Larger unused credit card limits intensify the preservation of credit cards over housing debt. Although mortgage nonrecourse statutes increase default on all types of housing debt, they reduce credit card defaults. Foreclosure delays increase default rates for housing and nonhousing debts. Our analysis highlights the interconnectedness of debt repayment decisions. 相似文献
14.
KRISTINA BLUWSTEIN MICHAł BRZOZA-BRZEZINA PAOLO GELAIN MARCIN KOLASA 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2020,52(7):1691-1718
We introduce multiperiod mortgage loans, fixed interest rate, a lower bound constraint on newly granted loans, and a possibly slack collateral constraint, in an otherwise standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with housing. Our nonlinear estimation shows that all those features are important to understand the evolution of mortgage debt during the recent U.S. housing market boom and bust. The transmission of monetary policy becomes dependent on the housing cycle, with weaker effects when house prices are high or start falling sharply. Higher average loan duration makes monetary policy less effective, eventually leading to asymmetric responses to positive and negative monetary shocks. 相似文献
15.
We view mortgage as a risky derivative of its underlying house collateral and combine no-arbitrage valuation with equilibrium valuation approaches to develop a dynamic model of leverage cycle and interest rate. This model provides a unified explanation to pro-cyclical optimism, asset prices, and leverage, and counter-cyclical volatility and interest rate. In addition, the model shows that tightening funding margin in the mortgage securities market dampens optimism, asset prices, and leverage, whereas it raises volatility and interest rate in the housing market. A double leverage cycle leads to more volatile markets and a severe leverage cycle, thus resulting in worse financial crises. 相似文献
16.
Behavioural models offer new insights into why bubbles are ubiquitous in residential real estate markets. These markets are dominated by unsophisticated households who often develop optimistic views by extrapolating from past returns. Rational investors cannot easily trade against an overvaluation of housing assets because of high transaction costs and a binding short sale constraint. Circumventing the effect of the latter, the supply of housing frequently increases in response to rising prices. This helps to mitigate bubbles but often leads to overbuilding, which slows down the recovery after a bubble bursts. Models that incorporate the effects of perverse incentives and limits to arbitrage are especially helpful in explaining the bubble that developed in mortgage‐backed securities and helped fuel the recent real estate bubble by relaxing home buyers’ borrowing constraints. The literature is ambiguous about whether governments should intervene to burst bubbles, as a better response may lie in improving incentives of key market players. 相似文献
17.
RABAH AREZKI THORSTEN BECK ROBERT DEYOUNG JOHN V. DUCA PRAKASH LOUNGANI ANTHONY MURPHY 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2015,47(Z1):1-11
This article provides an introduction to the JMCB special issue on housing bubbles, the global financial crisis, and the ensuing recessions in countries that experienced housing busts. We focus on five themes that are important for policymakers and researchers alike: the domestic and international factors driving housing booms and busts, the relevance of the housing sector for the real economy, how monetary policy should react to housing booms and busts, how housing and mortgage finance reform could affect financial stability, and the broad lessons learned for macroeconomics and macroprudential policy. 相似文献
18.
Japanese households accumulate wealth for down payments at a high rate. Therefore, current wealth plays an important role in home acquisition as well as public loans whose direct mortgage lending is a strong support for home purchasers. We estimate the wealth effect on private mortgage debt as well as housing consumption by applying a model where mortgage-debt demand is derived from house-purchase decisions and is determined jointly with housing consumption. We use a simultaneous equation Tobit estimation method. Wealth effects on private mortgage debt, likelihood of borrowing, and housing consumption are not elastic. On the other hand, a change in housing consumption affects the likelihood of borrowing elastically much more than the private mortgage amount of borrowers. Housing and private mortgage markets fluctuate very closely with the number of participants in the mortgage market. Therefore, the number of housing starts is linked strongly to the private mortgage market. 相似文献
19.
We analyze a model of mortgage markets, housing tenure choice, heterogeneous agents, and default with closed form solutions. We uncover new insights which may inspire empirical work, and we ground already established insights in a series of tractable expressions. Then we study optimal loan‐to‐value (LTV) regulation and show that the choice of an LTV cap should balance the opposing forces of access to homeownership and the negative externalities associated with default. Homeownership affordability concerns induce procyclical elements into optimal regulation which attenuate the countercyclical regulation justified by the negative default externalities. 相似文献
20.
This study forwards an explanation and empirical investigation of price clustering in retail banking markets. It is proposed that price or interest rate clustering forms in retail markets as firms wish to maximise returns from customers, some of whom have difficulties in recalling and processing price information. This theory is developed and tested using a dataset of retail interest rates from the UK which enables interest rate clustering to be viewed in both lending and investment markets, and at different levels of financial involvement. It is found that interest rate clustering occurs in a manner consistent with firms maximising returns from customers. These findings are viewed to be a key policy concern for financial regulators and firms concerned with consumer protection. 相似文献