Short‐Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations

The emphasis on renewable energy and concerns about the environment have led to large‐scale wind energy penetration worldwide. However, there are also significant challenges associated with the use of wind energy due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High‐quality short‐term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This article begins with an overview of the current status of worldwide wind power developments and future trends. It then reviews some statistical short‐term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series approaches and more advanced space–time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular, the need for realistic loss functions. New challenges in wind speed forecasting regarding ramp events and offshore wind farms are also presented.     

Differences Between Short‐ and Long‐Term Risk Aversion: An Optimal Asset Allocation Perspective

This paper studies the long‐term asset allocation problem of an investor with different risk aversion attitudes to the short and the long term. We characterize investor's preferences with a utility function exhibiting a regime shift in risk aversion at some point of the multiperiod investment horizon that is estimated using threshold nonlinearity methods. Our empirical results for a portfolio of cash, bonds and stocks suggest that long‐term risk aversion is higher than short‐term risk aversion and increases with the investment horizon. The exposure of the investment portfolio from stocks to bonds and cash increases with the degree of risk aversion.     

Do Short‐Term Observed Income Changes Overstate Structural Economic Mobility?*

The recent empirical literature on household income dynamics in developing countries has tended to find considerable intertemporal economic mobility and thus inferred that a large proportion of poverty is transitory. This article introduces a statistical test which shows that these findings are partially driven by stochastic changes in transitory income. Estimates of total economic mobility are inversely correlated with the panel spell length. For short data spells, estimated total economic mobility is significantly greater than the underlying structural economic mobility because of short‐lived movements across the poverty line that cancel out over periods of multiple years.     

The Long‐Term Effects of Legalizing Divorce on Children

We estimate the effect of divorce legalization on the long‐term well‐being of children, by exploiting the different timing of divorce legalization across Europe. We compare the adult outcomes of cohorts raised when divorce was banned with those of cohorts raised after divorce was legalized in the same country. We also have ‘control’ countries where all cohorts were exposed (or not exposed) to legal divorce as children. We find that women who grew up under legal divorce have lower earnings and income and worse health as adults compared with women who grew up under illegal divorce. These negative effects are not found for men.     

企业集团投资效率同群效应研究——基于系族控股上市公司的实证检验

文章以系族控股上市公司为研究样本,考察企业集团内部成员企业在投资效率上的同群效应。研究发现,企业集团内部存在投资效率同群效应,这一效应既包括成员企业投资效率恶化的负面影响对其他成员企业的传染效应,也包括投资效率改善的积极传递效应;将低效投资行为区分为过度投资和投资不足后发现,过度投资行为的加剧在集团内部成员间的传染更为明显。进一步研究发现,内部资本市场行为是上述同群效应形成的机制之一,而集团内部执行董事交叉任职形成的董事网络会强化集团内部投资效率的同群效应。     

The Effects of a Separation of Ownership from Control on UK Listed Firms: An Empirical Analysis

There has been a wide‐ranging debate concerning the effects of the separation of management and ownership of large firms. Given recent issues concerning corporate remuneration, this debate is as relevant and possibly more so today as it has ever been. Theoretically, as the ownership of a firm becomes more diverse, the management of the firm will have more discretion and opportunity to act in accordance with their own interests at the expense of those of the shareholders. This paper considers the effect of a separation of ownership from control on 406 UK listed firms. Simultaneous equations are used to test for a relationship between the percentage of shares owned by significant outsiders and insiders and the performance of the firm. A number of authors have suggested that there may be a significant relationship between these variables. The analysis conducted in this study supports the view that there is a relationship between ownership structure and firm performance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can Government Policies Induce Earnings Management Behavior? ‐Evidence from Chinese Public Listed Firms

Earnings management behavior is a concern of standard setters, regulators, and investors. This study predicts that government policies can induce earnings management behavior. Based on a sample of 8,765 firm years ranging from 2002 to 2009, this study uses two methods to detect the effect of government policies on managers' earnings management behavior. One is the earnings distribution method developed by Burgstahler and Dichev (1997), and the other is the modified Jones model proposed by DeFond and Jiambalvo (1994). We find that policies issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) can induce managers of listed firms to engage in earnings management to either avoid negative consequences (e.g., delisting) or to meet requirements (e.g., refinancing). So, although the purpose of government is to protect investors as well as to promote the healthy development of the securities market, its policies are a double‐edged sword: if there is no strict and effective control mechanism, government policies can harm investors and disturb the normal order of the securities market.     

中国上市公司股权激励:现状与讨论

作为缓解代理冲突的重要长效激励机制,股权激励在中国经过多年的发展取得了一定成效.尽管学术界关于股权激励形成了诸多研究成果,但目前尚缺乏针对股权激励实施情况的系统全面分析.本文通过对中国股权激励制度变迁和相关文献进行梳理,以2006～2020年中国A股市场股权激励公司为研究对象,从激励强度、激励对象、激励模式、激励时间间...     

Whistle‐Blowing and Incentives in Firms

Whistle‐blowing is an important mechanism of corporate governance. We show that whistle‐blowing has negative effects on productive efficiency by undermining the incentives within a corporate hierarchy. In our model, a top manager intends to overreport earnings; a division manager may have evidence about the intended overreporting. We show that the division manager is more likely to have such evidence when the performance of his own division is low. Top management may offer a bribe to prevent the manager from blowing the whistle. This provides the division manager with an additional payoff when his division’s output is low. Therefore, potential whistle‐blowing undermines the division manager’s incentives to exert effort, which results in a less efficient outcome.     

The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure and Time-Varying Risk Premia: a Panel Data Approach

One implication of the expectations hypothesis is that the yield spread should forecast subsequent changes in the long yield. However, regression tests based on this specification strongly reject the expectations hypothesis. One explanation for this rejection is that these tests fail to allow for a time varying risk premium that is correlated with this yield spread, leading to a bias in the estimated regression coefficients. This paper uses panel data in order to testm the expectations hypothesis under the assumption that risk premia are time-varying but driven by a single factor. It is found that while the expectations hypothesis is still rejected, the bias in the estimated coefficient is verysubstantially reduced.     

High‐Performance Work Systems in Professional Service Firms: Examining the Practices‐Resources‐Uses‐Performance Linkage

Professional service firms (PSFs) play an important role in the knowledge‐based economy. Their success is highly dependent on their people, the knowledge resources they possess, and how they use these resources. However, how to systematically manage human resources to attain high performance is not fully understood. This study addresses this issue by investigating the linkage mechanisms through which high‐performance work systems (HPWS) influence the performance of PSFs. We integrate resource‐based and dynamic capability theories in order to identify and investigate two intervening mechanisms that link HR practices to firm performance. The first mechanism is the intellectual capital resources comprising the human, social, and organizational capital that HPWS create. The second mechanism is the uses to which both HPWS and resources can be applied, operationalized as organizational ambidexterity, the simultaneous exploitation of existing knowledge and exploration of new knowledge. These mechanisms are hypothesized to link HPWS to firm performance in the form of a practices‐resources‐uses‐performance linkage model. Results from a longitudinal study of 93 accounting firms support this linkage model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

国有控股上市公司股权激励市场效应的实证分析

本文采集了21家国有控股上市公司实施股权激励首次披露日前后三十个交易日的股票收盘价,并对这些股价进行了统计分析。实证结果显示,国有控股上市公司股票价格在股权激励方案首次披露日之后给投资者带来了超额收益,国有控股上市公司实施股权激励给个股股价带来正面的市场效应,并且能够提高国有控股上市公司的短期融资能力。分析认为,广大证券投资者没有过分担心因国有控股上市公司实施股权激励可能带来的国有资产流失问题,多数投资者持积极认同态度。     

创业板上市公司经济绩效及影响因素

研究目标：探讨创业板上市公司经济绩效的影响因素。研究方法：基于2012~2014年创业板上市公司的面板数据,运用贝叶斯模型平均法进行实证分析。研究发现：当期及滞后一期R&D强度对经济绩效存在显著负向影响,而R&D交互作用对经济绩效具有显著正向影响;经营现金流状况、总资产周转率对经济绩效具有显著正向影响;当期广告强度只对权益报酬率具有较显著正向影响。研究创新：第一,选择商品经营、资产经营与资本经营等三个方面的经济绩效指标,分别从R&D创新、广告营销、营运管理等方面探讨经济绩效的影响因素,拓展了研究视角;第二,运用贝叶斯模型平均法研究经济绩效的影响因素,估计结果更加稳健可信,具有方法的新颖性和有效性。研究价值：本文结论对改善创业板公司的创新和经营策略具有较强的现实意义。     

Determination of Long‐run and Short‐run Dynamics in EC‐VARMA Models via Canonical Correlations

This article studies a simple, coherent approach for identifying and estimating error‐correcting vector autoregressive moving average (EC‐VARMA) models. Canonical correlation analysis is implemented for both determining the cointegrating rank, using a strongly consistent method, and identifying the short‐run VARMA dynamics, using the scalar component methodology. Finite‐sample performance is evaluated via Monte Carlo simulations and the approach is applied to modelling and forecasting US interest rates. The results reveal that EC‐VARMA models generate significantly more accurate out‐of‐sample forecasts than vector error correction models (VECMs), especially for short horizons. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating Form and Functionality of Pay‐for‐Performance Plans: The Relative Incentive and Sorting Effects of Merit Pay,Bonuses, and Long‐Term Incentives

Using two‐year longitudinal data from a large sample of US employees from a service‐related organization, the present study investigates the relative effects of three forms of pay‐for‐performance (PFP) plans on employees’ job performance (incentive effects) and voluntary turnover (sorting effects). The study differentiates between three forms of pay: merit pay, individual‐based bonuses, and long‐term incentives. By definition, these PFP plans have different structural elements that distinguish them from each other (i.e., pay plan form) and different characteristics (functionality), such as the degree to which pay and performance are linked and the size of the rewards, which can vary both within and across plan types. Our results provide evidence that merit raises have larger incentive and sorting effects than bonuses and long‐term incentives in multi‐PFP plan environments where the three PFP plans are operating simultaneously. Only merit pay has both incentive and sorting effects among the three PFP plans. The implications for the PFP‐related theory, as well as for the design and implementation of PFP plans, are discussed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Impact of Short‐ and Long‐run Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Investment: A Panel Study of Industrial Countries*

We examine the relationship between aggregate investment and exchange rate uncertainty in the G7, using panel estimation and decomposition of volatility derived from the components generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (GARCH) model. Our dynamic panel approach takes account of potential cross‐sectional heterogeneity, which can lead to bias in estimation. We find that for a poolable subsample of European countries, it is the transitory and not the permanent component of volatility which adversely affects investment. To the extent that short‐run uncertainty in the CGARCH model characterizes higher frequency shocks generated by volatile short‐term capital flows, these are most deleterious for investment.     

Narrow‐Framing and Risk Preferences in Family and Non‐Family Firms

Building upon prospect theory’s concept of narrow‐framing, we explore family firms’ risk preferences across multiple decisions in corporate entrepreneurship. We argue that family firms’ decisions are less likely to be narrowly framed (more likely to be made as a group rather than in isolation) compared to non‐family firms. Examining the interaction between two risky decisions (internationalization and R&D investment) in two samples of publicly traded firms in the USA and China confirms our hypotheses. Family firms appear more likely than non‐family firms to diversify risk when making multiple decisions concerning corporate entrepreneurship. However, given inferior performance, risk taking across multiple decisions in family firms is positively related.     

Lump‐Sum versus Pay‐As‐You‐Go: The Moderating Effect of Contract Types on the Optimal Logistics Decisions

When outsourcing their logistics operations to transportation companies, manufacturers/retailers need to design a contract, under which payment can be made either in a lump sum or over time (i.e., per each delivery). This paper investigates how the payment method (i.e., type of contracts) impacts the transporter's delivery schedule by developing an analytical model based on the optimal control and game theories. Our findings show that the transporter's delivery schedule depends on the method of payment and the overall cost of hiring a transporter varies with the types of contracts. We provide theoretical explanations to these findings along with managerial implications. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Non‐Classical Measurement Error in Long‐Term Retrospective Recall Surveys*

Applied microeconomic researchers are beginning to use long‐term retrospective survey data in settings where conventional longitudinal survey data are unavailable. However, inaccurate long‐term recall could induce non‐classical measurement error, for which conventional statistical corrections are less effective. In this article, we use the unique Panel Study of Income Dynamics Validation Study to assess the accuracy of long‐term retrospective recall data. We find underreporting of transitory variation which creates a non‐classical measurement error problem.