Reliability and competitive electricity markets

We derive the optimal prices and investment program for an electric power system when there are price‐insensitive retail consumers served by load serving entities that can choose any level of rationing contingent on real‐time prices. We then examine the assumptions required for competitive electricity markets to achieve this optimal price and investment program and the implications of relaxing several of these assumptions. We analyze the interrelationships between regulator‐imposed wholesale market price caps and generating capacity obligations. The implications of potential network collapses for operating reserve requirements and whether market prices yield generation investments consistent with these reserve requirements are examined.     

An empirical investigation of the welfare effects of banning wholesale price discrimination

Economic theory does not provide sharp predictions on the welfare effects of banning wholesale price discrimination: if downstream cost differences exist, then discrimination shifts production inefficiently, toward high‐cost retailers, so a ban increases welfare; if differences in price elasticity of demand across retailers exist, discrimination may increase welfare if quantity sold increases, so a ban reduces welfare. Using retail prices and quantities of coffee brands sold by German retailers, I estimate a model of demand and supply and separate cost and demand differences. Simulating a ban on wholesale price discrimination has positive welfare effects in this market, and less if downstream cost differences shrink, or with less competition.     

Electricity markets and oligopolistic behaviors: The impact of a multimarket structure

The article analyses the development of retail competition in electricity markets, compares market structures and performance in Great Britain and Norway, and concludes that there is no satisfactory outcome in a multimarket setting like Great Britain. We study differences in retail profits between Norway and Great Britain, both considered as benchmarks for competitive markets. We highlight the price parallelism of British suppliers whatever the trend of wholesale prices. These behaviors contrast with the small and stable retail mark-ups in each group of suppliers in Norway. The main explanation comes from the combination of vertical integration and multimarket setting, which allows parallel pricing behaviors in the British retail market. We also evaluate the impact of other factors that influence the dynamic of retail competition: national fuel mixes and institutional design of retail and wholesale markets. However, we demonstrate that a multimarket setting, which is a major feature of most retail markets, remains the main determinant of oligopolistic profit. Remedies must be implemented to correct these market imperfections.     

Vertical control of a distribution network—an empirical analysis of magazines

How does an upstream firm determine the size of its distribution network, and what is the role of vertical restraints? To address these questions, we develop two empirical entry models. In the benchmark coordinated entry model, the upstream firm sets market‐specific wholesale prices and implements the first best. In the more realistic restricted/free entry model, the upstream firm only sets a uniform wholesale price. As a second‐best solution, it restricts entry in markets where business stealing (encroachment) is high, and allows free entry elsewhere. We apply the model to magazine distribution, and assess the profitability of alternative vertical restraints. Banning restricted licensing reduces profits only slightly, so the business rationale for restricted licensing should not be sought in the prevention of encroachment. Furthermore, market‐specific wholesale prices implement the first best, but the profit increase would be small, providing a rationale for the commonly observed uniform wholesale prices. Finally, uniform franchise fees are much less effective than a uniform wholesale price to cope with local market differences.     

Warrant price responses to credit spread changes: Fact or fiction?

We use a new approach to analyze the relationship between warrant prices and issuers’ credit spreads. This approach allows us to gain insights into whether issuers use their credit risk systematically to increase their profits. In a post‐Lehman sample, we find strong support for a systematic use since issuers decrease prices less after cred it spread increases than they increase prices after credit spread decreases. Credit spread decreases are accompanied by price increases on several successive days. This sluggish adjustment in prices can be explained by the fact that retail investors’ purchase decisions depend on product prices.     

The frequency and size of price changes: evidence from non-parametric estimations

The majority of price setting models predict a negative correlation between the frequency and size of price changes. Using a unique micro-level price data from Slovakia, we find that a negative correlation between frequency and size of price changes holds only for more rigid prices. On the other hand, less rigid prices such as gasoline prices exhibit positive correlation in line with Rotemberg's pricing model.     

Interwar Inflation,Unexpected Inflation,and Output Growth

Interwar macroeconomic history is a natural place to look for evidence on the correlation between output growth and inflation or unexpected inflation. We apply time‐series methods to measure unexpected inflation for more than 20 countries using both retail and wholesale prices. There is a significant, positive correlation between output growth and inflation for the entire period. There is little evidence that this correlation is caused by an underlying role for unexpected inflation. For wholesale price inflation in particular, the output declines associated with deflations were larger than the output increases associated with inflations of the same scale.     

中国粮食市场垂直整合与非对称价格调整——基于一种新的正则化贝叶斯门限估计法

基于中国主要粮食品种的收购价格、批发价格和零售价格数据,采用一种新的正则化贝叶斯门限估计法估计的三区制门限向量修正模型（TVECM）,从交易成本视角探讨粮食市场垂直整合程度和非对称价格调整。结果表明：粮食收购市场与批发市场整合程度高于批发市场与零售市场整合程度;大豆和玉米市场垂直整合程度低于大米和小麦市场垂直整合程度;粮食市场垂直价格调整在不同区制具有非对称性;当价格偏离均衡程度低于交易成本时,也可能存在价格调整。     

Asset price dynamics,inflation and sectoral composition of output: a dependent economy model

This article develops a dependent economy model that focuses on the interactions between inflation and asset price dynamics under a flexible exchange rate and rational expectation. We assume that money wage adjusts instantaneously to clear the labour market. The asset prices are represented by the Tobin’s q and exchange rate. Using this framework, we will examine implications of monetary policy, fiscal policy, tariff liberalization and exogenous capital flows for inflation and asset prices, which in turn determine the allocation of labour and the sectoral composition of output. The effects of different exogenous and policy-induced shocks critically depend on the difference in the speeds of adjustment in commodity price and asset prices and multiple cross effects generated by changes in these prices.     

Informational rigidities and the stickiness of temporary Sales

How do retailers react to cost changes? While temporary sales account for 95% of price change in our data, retail prices respond to a wholesale cost increase entirely through the regular price. Sales actually respond temporarily in the opposite direction from regular prices, as though to conceal the price hike. Additional evidence from responses to commodity cost and local unemployment shocks, as well as broader evidence from BLS data, reinforces these findings. Institutional evidence indicates that sales are complex contingent contracts, determined substantially in advance. In a standard price-discrimination model, these institutional practices leave little money ``on the table”.     

Price Limits and Beta

Price limits, which restrict daily price changes of a stock within a pre-specified range, make the stochastic properties of observed returns deviate from those of true returns, and hence lead to a biased estimates of the market model parameters. To investigate the impacts of price limits on the market model parameters, especially on beta, the restricted regression analysis is performed as well as the two-pass regression analysis used in examining the intervalling effect bias on beta. Empirical results suggest that, when prices are observed within a pre-specified bound, the estimates of beta using ordinary least squares substantially understate the true beta and suffer more from the intervalling effect bias. However, the delay effect of price limits on the adjustment of a security's price does not last too long, that is, remaining information is reflected on the subsequent day's stock prices very rapidly.     

COMPETITION AND REGULATION IN THE U.K. ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY (WITH A BRIEF LOOK AT CALIFORNIA)

In this article, the U.K.'s Director General of Electricity Supply from 1989 to 1998 assesses the effects of deregulation and competition on the U.K. electricity industry after about a decade. Expansion of existing competitors, new entry, and further restructuring have reduced the aggregate share of the largest two generation companies from nearly 80% to 26%. Efficiency has improved and wholesale prices have fallen after an initial increase. Voluntary bilateral contracts markets are about to replace the mandatory "Pool," with centralised control limited to physically balancing the system and settling contract imbalances. Retail supply competition has been active for large industrial customers since the beginning, and 80% of them now buy from another supplier. The market for residential customers opened in early 1999, and already nearly a quarter of them have chosen another supplier. Incentive price controls on transmission and distribution have stimulated increased efficiency and significantly reduced use-of-system charges. Overall, prices for all classes of customers have fallen by 25–35% in real terms since privatisation, and quality of service has improved.
California has adopted a policy that is similar in many respects, but with very different results. The problems there have stemmed partly from less favourable demand and supply conditions, but also from significant policy differences, including barriers to building new capacity, obstacles to the use of long-term supply (or hedging) contracts, retail price controls at untenable levels, and the requirement that (after a transition period) utilities pass through wholesale spot prices directly to their customers. Changes in such policies will eventually enable both producers and consumers in California to benefit from competition.     

Interest Rate Pass-Through in China: An Analysis of Chinese Commercial Banks

This study investigates the interest rate transmission in China. We analyze the extent to which the benchmark and wholesale interest rates are transmitted to the retail interest rates and focus particularly on the change in the interest rate pass-through after the interest rate liberalization. Using data of 16 listed banks from 2007Q1 to 2017Q3, we find that the pass-through is not yet complete. Even though interest rates have been liberalized on the policy level, the sensitivity of the retail interest rates to the wholesale rates has not increased enough as expected and may be explained by the market power of Chinese commercial banks.     

Environmental Conditions,Reservation Prices,and Time on the Market for Housing

A general analytical model to describe the impact of environmental disamenities on duration of sales is derived. A statistical technique to recover a sellers reservation price is proposed. An econometric procedure that consistently estimates market duration and a sellers reservation price is described. An application to the impact of highway noise on property values and market duration is presented. The estimation results show that, while highway noise has a significant negative impact on forming reservation prices and predicting sale prices, the noise effect on duration of sales is not statistically significant. Empirical evidence also shows a negative impact of market duration on reservation prices, which indicates an updating process for reservation prices over time.     

The demand effect of yield-chasing retail investors: Evidence from the Chinese enterprise bond market

Enterprise bonds with higher demand of retail investors are traded at significantly higher prices in the exchange market than the same bonds traded by institutional investors in the interbank market in China. The price difference is higher for bonds with higher yield to maturity, lower supply, and higher demand exposure to retail investors. Our results suggest that risky bonds can be priced significantly higher due to the demand of yield-chasing investors and a sudden negative demand shock can generate a sharp decrease in bond values. The demand and supply effects are stronger for bonds with higher duration due to the limited risk-sharing capacity of risk-averse arbitrageurs.     

Restaurant Prices and the Minimum Wage

In this paper, we examine the effect of the minimum wage on restaurant prices. We contribute both to the study of economic impact of the minimum wage and to the study of microeconomic patterns of price stickiness. For this purpose, we use a unique data set of individual price quotes collected to calculate the Consumer Price Index in France and we estimate a price rigidity model based on a flexible rule. We find a positive and significant impact of the minimum wage on prices. The effect of the minimum wage on prices is, however, very protracted. A change in the minimum wage takes more than a year to fully pass through to retail prices.     

Can interest rates really control house prices? Effectiveness and implications for macroprudential policy

This paper investigates how changes in the central bank policy and retail mortgage rates affected real housing prices in New Zealand during the period 1999–2009. We find that real interest rates are significantly and positively related to real housing prices, indicating that increases in the policy rate may not be effective in depressing real housing prices. By testing interest rates, we also find some evidence of housing price bubbles. Our findings suggest that the central bank could have limited housing price bubbles if it had started to intervene in the housing market prior to 2003. Our results set international exemplars for using policy rates or macroprudential tools to cool the housing market, where the extent of policy rate adjustments is limited by internal or external economic factors.     

Investor Sentiment and Pre-IPO Markets

We examine whether irrational behavior among small (retail) investors drives post‐IPO prices. We use prices from the grey market (the when‐issued market that precedes European IPOs) to proxy for small investors' valuations. High grey market prices (indicating overoptimism) are a very good predictor of first‐day aftermarket prices, while low grey market prices (indicating excessive pessimism) are not. Moreover, we find long‐run price reversal only following high grey market prices. This asymmetry occurs because larger (institutional) investors can choose between keeping the shares they are allocated in the IPO, and reselling them when small investors are overoptimistic.     

Microstructure and reverse stock splits

In this paper we show that, similar to NYSE/AMEX stocks, NASDAQ stocks exhibit significant ex date returns for reverse stock splits. Although the 10-day cumulative return after the ex date is close to –10%, this does not violate market efficiency, because the average bid-ask spread for the reverse split stock is at least double this return. We also document that these large negative returns are mostly due to a drop in the ask price while bid prices barely change at all. Furthermore, the ex date returns are negatively related to trading volume.These results suggest that there is abnormal selling and a significant buildup of market makers' inventories near the ex date. To reduce the inventory buildup, market makers lower ask prices to induce buying by investors, resulting in the observed negative returns. Lowering bid prices, an alternative strategy for reducing inventories, is not attractive to market makers due to competitive factors and the reduction of commissions associated with a smaller number of transactions. Notably, selling investors have no incentives to sell their stocks early to avoid the observed negative ex date return, since this return is largely an ask price phenomenon and does not represent realized returns to sellers.     

Offer pricing of Australian industrial initial public offers

In the present paper we examine the setting of offer prices for Australian industrial initial public offers (IPOs) by fixed price offers. Our investigation focuses on the associations between offer prices and both market prices and accounting based measures of intrinsic value. Fixed‐price offers are less likely to be influenced by the canvassing of market demand when compared to the US setting, where book‐builds are typically used. We conclude that while Australian industrial IPOs are underpriced, they are not systematically undervalued. Contrary to research undertaken by Purnanandam and Swaminathan in the US book‐build setting, we do not conclude that Australian IPOs are systematically overvalued. As part of our analysis, we develop an empirical model of offer prices based on interviews with several leading Australian stockbrokers involved in setting them. Finally, using the ratio of offer price to intrinsic value measure, we find some evidence that undervaluation is positively related to underpricing.