The Mechanism of the Middle Income Trap and the Potential Factors Influencing China＇s Economic Growth

Data from WDI show that developing countries are easily caught in the ＂middle income trap.＂ To interpret the mechanism of the ＂middle income trap,＂ this paper focuses on： （1） Based on the empirical framework of economic growth, we perform an empirical research on the determinants of economic growth at different income levels and discover that fixed capital investment, FDI and human capital accumulation are the main factors influencing less developed economies while for the upper middle income level and high-income level countries, the engines of economic growth change to institutions and R＆D. （2） We discuss the possible reasons why developing countries can have rapid economic growth before reaching the middleineome level, but cannot transform growth mechanisms in the middle income level. （3） We classify the factors that have influenced China＇s economic growth since the reform and analyze the potential ones for China＇s future development.     

Will Inequality Lead China to the Middle Income Trap？

China has departed from the East Asian development model by letting inequality rise to a high level, which is now contributing to China＇s current problems of macroeconomic imbalance, declining efficiency of capital, and rising social tensions. If inequality persists, China may get caught in the ＂inequality-trap,＂ which may then lead to the middle income trap （MIT）. Fortunately, China still has the levers to pull to reduce inequality and avoid the MIT. Measures along both the ＂wage route＂ and the ＂redistributive route＂ can be adopted for this purpose. In addition, China may pursue the ＂cooperative route＂ to more equitable distribution.     

The Nature and Avoidance of the ＂Middle Income Trap＂

The ＂middle income trap＂ is a significant theoretical and practical issue closely related to the economic and social transition and sustainable development of a country. This paper explores the essence of the ＂middle income trap＂ and ways to avoid it. It reveals that the inner nature of the ＂middle income trap＂ lies in the institutional transition dilemma, which results essentially from a lack of reasonable and clear definitions of governance boundaries between government and market as well as government and society. This lack of boundaries causes coexistent and interrelated government inefficiency, market distortion/failure and social anomie, leading to a stagnant transition from a factor-driven to an efficiency-driven and further innovation-driven economy. Moreover, this paper proposes that the proper way to avoid the ＂trap＂ can be found in the reconstruction of the state governance mode, that is, to transition from a development-oriented and omnipotent government to a public service-oriented and limited government, from factor-driven to efficiency-driven and further innovation-driven development, and from a traditional society to a modem civil society through defining reasonable and clear boundaries between government and market as well as government and society. Thus, reconstruction can establish a state public governance mode featuring the interactive role of government, market and society, and achieve the modernization of state governance systems and capacity.     

Possibility of a Middle Income Trap in China： Assessment in Terms of the Literature on Innovation,Big Business and Inequality

This paper discusses the possibility of China falling into the so-called middle income trap in terms of three checkpoints： innovation capability, world-class big businesses, and inequality. Based on these criteria, our conclusions are as follows： First, China has increasingly become innovative and thus differs from other middle income countries. Second, China has many successful big businesses, a number disproportionate to its size. Thus, China differs from other middle income countries with few world-class big businesses, and the only qualification is that those big businesses are mostly non- manufacturing firms focused on such areas as finance, energy, and trading. Third, China faces great uncertainty in terms of inequality. Although several signs show that the Kuznets curve will come to represent China, as noted by the gradual reduction of surplus labor and rising wage rates starting in the coastal provinces, the Chinese are now facing new sources of inequality in China, such as wealth （including financial and real estate assets） and non-economic factors （including corruption）.     

Market Transition and Income Inequality in Urban China： Evidence from Shapley Value Decomposition

China＇s market-oriented reform is expected to strengthen the role of the market in allocating resources, which raises concerns over the impact of market transformation on income distribution and earnings inequality in the past decades. This paper decomposes the sources of inequality based on the newly developed Shapley value approach and examines the contributions of the market, along with other nonmarket factors, to total inequality. Using the China Health and Nutrition Survey data over the period 1989-2009, we find that the income gap between laborers with a higher level of education and those with a lower level has widened since the transformational reforms of the economy. Our results suggest that the largest contribution of changes in income inequality can be attributed to the increase in returns to education, while the relative contributions of the household registration （hukou） system, type of sector ownership, geographic location, and gender to inequality experienced a downward trend between 1989 and 2009. The authors argue that rising income inequality is the consequence of efficiency improvements and an imperfect economic system, and that the market is a decisive force in economic development as it releases competitive signals and creates incentive mechanisms for innovation. Creating a more efficient labor market and increasing investment in human capital, particularly equalizing educational opportunities and improving the quality of education in lagging rural and inland regions to disadvantaged groups, are significant for an equitable distribution of income and sustainable development in the long run.     

Positive Research on China’s Economic Growth Quality——Analyze the Fluctuating Situation of the Factor Input and Aggregative Productivity

I.The estimate of the factor input and its contribution to the economic growth1.Calculate the parameter of output elasticity of theChinesefactor inputThe output elasticity of the factor input is that the func-tion how factor input growth affects the outpu…     

Positive Research on China＇s Economic Growth Quality——Analyze the Fluctuating Situation of the Factor Input and Aggregative Productivity

To analyze China‘s fluctuating situation of the factor input and aggregative productivity is not only the main method to seek the source of the economic growth but also the main way to weigh the level of economic growth quality. As to economic growth of a country, the improvement of the productivity is extremely important. The growth of the output can be realized through two kinds of ways: increasing the quantity of factor input of orimproving the effciency of the input and output. Therefore, the level of economic growth quafity does not mainly depend on the amount of invesTed factor, but the importance of improving the produtivity since Pesources are rare.The relative improvement of efficiency in use of the invested factor marks the economic growing quality. So, in order to understand the economic growth quafity of China to some extent, it must analyze Chinese factor input and aggregative productivity. This is the main topic that this text wilt be probed into.     

FPI, FPI and China＇ s Economic Growth --Empirical Research based SVAR

利用SVAR模型,研究了外国直接投资和外国证券投资对中国经济增长的影响。结果显示FPI、FDI与中国经济增长呈现正相关关系,FDI的作用显著,FPI的作用不显著。同时,FDI和FPI之间存在一定的交替关系,FDI拉低了FPI,而FPI则在短期内对FDI有促进作用。     

Economic Growth： Theoretical Arguments about Resources, Environment and the Limit Issue ＆ the Choices Faced by the Human Being

The relationship between man and nature seems highly diverse during the evolving process of human society. Numerous destructive consequences incurring from the carly stage of the industrialization led to man＇s severe concern about ecological and environment issues. In 1972, a book entitled “The Limits To Growth” ushered in a worldwide argumentation campaign, and forced man to realize that the bearing capacity of ecological surroundings is finite, and the quantity of resources is numbered as well. Admittedly, the human advance in science and technology, from the long-term viewpoint, is capable of discovering new types of energy and resources. However, each specific period of human history is always endangered due to the crisis of energy and resources. Therefore the core of the retainable development lies in variation of the outdated pattern of economic growth as well as pursuit to the new substitutes.     

“中等收入陷阱”及其跨越——基于“包容陛增长”视角的思考

中国经济社会发展既处于大有作为的重要战略机遇期,又面临难得的历史机遇,同时也面对诸多可以预见和难以预见的风险挑战。当前中国面临的一个最大挑战,就是如何规避＂中等收入陷阱＂,通过研究和分析,经济结构战略性调整是规避＂陷阱＂的主攻方向,科技进步和创新是规避＂陷阱＂的重要支撑,保障和改善民生是规避＂陷阱＂的根本出发点和落脚点,建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会是规避＂陷阱＂的重要着力点,改革开放是规避＂陷阱＂的强大动力,只有如此,才能使中国实现＂包容性增长＂,规避＂中等收入陷阱＂。     

中等收入陷阱的国际实证比较及对中国启示

本文通过实证对比跨越和落入中等收入陷阱两类国家在入均GDP达到3000美元到突破1万美元期间经济社会方面的差异及演变过程,给出落入中等收入陷阱国家的判断依据,揭示中等收入陷阱的实质是效率陷阱,发现落入中等收入陷阱的成因主要有教育投入不足、失业率高、消费层次低、金融配置低及贫富差距过大等。同时,对中国落入陷阱的可能性进行判断分析,并就中国如何跨越中等收入陷阱给出一些建议。     

经济全球化、中国收入分配与“人口红利陷阱”

文章从经济全球化影响中国收入分配的各个层面入手,通过数理推导和实证分析探讨了贸易全球化、生产与投资的全球化、金融深化、科技进步、教育水平等对中国国内收入分配的影响。结果发现,贸易全球化短期内会加剧中国的收入差距,原因可归结为人口红利陷阱,但长期内将有助于缩小中国的收入差距;生产与投资的全球化也会扩大收入差距,而金融发展与深化对中国收入分配差距的影响最大;技术进步、受教育程度提高和劳动力由低阶部门向高阶部门的转移则能在一定程度上缓解收入差距过大。     

经济增长与收入差距:一个基于主体的经济模拟途径

本文提供了一个基于主体的转轨经济模型,用于分析经济转轨过程中经济增长和收入差距的动态关联性.模拟实验结果表明:随着经济的持续增长,收入差距经历一个先扩大后缩小的过程;实施适度的累进税政策会在缩小收入差距的同时,促进经济高速增长.     

我国区域收入差距与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于东、中、西部面板数据的协整分析

坚持区域经济协调发展,逐步缩小地区间发展差距,是提高经济落后地区居民收入水平、缩小同发达地区居民收入差距的一项长期战略。改革开放以来,从整体上说,我国各省区居民的收入和生活水平都得到了很大提高,但是由于各种原因,地区间经济发展的差距不仅存在而且有不断扩大的趋势。对我国东、中、西部地区居民收入差距与经济增长之间的关系进行研究分析,比较了三个地区居民收入差距的现状与变动趋势,分析了影响居民收入差距的主要因素以及这些因素对经济增长的影响,研究了收入差距与经济增长之间所存在的关系。     

非线性增长与经济增长动力转换

采用时变马尔科夫区制转换模型,分析了不同投入要素在不同经济增长阶段对经济增长贡献的差异,以及影响经济在不同区制之间跃迁的关键因素。研究发现:在三类经济增速区间内,人力资本投入对经济增长的拉动效应最强,在推动经济从中速增长向高速增长转移的过程中发挥重要作用;帮助经济跨越"中等收入陷阱"的关键在于提高物质资本和人力资本投资的匹配度,使物质资本和人力资本的流动与产业集聚和城市化发展一致、与技术创新能力提升配合;渐进式转型有利于平滑增长路径,降低向高收入均衡收敛的临界值。     

Agricultural Productivity Growth and Escape from the Malthusian Trap

Industrialization allowed the industrialized world of today to escape from the Malthusian regime characterized by low economic and population growth and to enter the post-Malthusian regime of high economic and population growth. To explain the transition between these regimes, we construct a growth model with two consumption goods (an agricultural and a manufacturing good), endogenous fertility, and endogenous technological progress in the manufacturing sector. We show that with an exogenous increase in the growth of agricultural productivity our model is able to replicate stylized facts of the British industrial revolution. The paper concludes by illustrating that our proposed model framework can be extended to include the demographic transition, i.e., a regime in which economic growth is associated with falling fertility.     

中国经济增长与收入差距关系的经验研究

经济增长与收入差距的关系是一个古老而又充满活力的问题。研究发现,尽管全国总量时序数据的Granger因果关系检验表明,中国的经济增长与收入差距不存在任何方向的因果关系,但以各省GDP增长率和城乡收入比为观测点的面板数据检验结果显示:不论是在短期还是在长期,收入差距的扩大都是引起经济增长的Granger原因;经济增长在短期会引起收入差距的扩大,但从长期看,有助于收入差距的缩小。     

收入不平等对经济增长影响的实证研究

采用联立方程分析方法,实证分析了收入不平等对经济增长影响的三种机制,探讨了收入不平等如何通过影响物质资本投资、人力资本投资和居民消费来作用于经济增长。结果表明,从长期看收入不平等的扩大会刺激物质资本投资,但不利于人力资本投资和居民消费增长,收入不平等对经济增长的长期影响为负。因此,从经济发展的角度政府不应容忍收入不平等的过分扩大。