Harmonious Stock Prices

Stock price movements in China still remain highly harmonious, in spite of the many significant regulatory and structural changes over the recent years. A survey of the literature reveals that harmony in the stock price movements is related to a few salient features in China＇s capital market： high ownership concentration, high incidence of the use of pyramidal ownership structure, significant state ownership, and a lack of active institutional investors. In addition, we also point out that harmonious stock prices may generally result from low intensity of private information acquisitions by risk arbitrageurs.     

Soaring Grain Prices Raise Global Concerns

Grain prices often dominate all other product prices,and an increase in their price is usually considered as a prelude to inflation.The three fairly serious inflations,in 1985,1988-1989,and 1993-1995 respectively,were all preceded by grain price hikes.Furthermore,the money supply surged in the preceding year or during the same year in which these inflations occurred.This year has witnessed the same symptoms. High grain prices,which still have a possibility to go up further,have attracted wide attention across the world,including in China.As early as the end of last year,the State Council issued a circular that mandated the stabilization of grain prices in order to strictly crack down on illegal actions such as dishonest merchants driving up grain prices.One time,five State-level Departments led by National Development and Reform Commission,released an urgent announcement in order to safeguard the stability of grain prices in the domestic market.Wu Xiaoling,Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China,said that the negative influences exerted on other product prices by the rise in global grain price should not be ignored.According to Wu,the People's Bank of China will continue to closely watch the price changes. From a global and comprehensive viewpoint,the article analyzes the features of the recent grain price hike and the reasons for its dramatic rise,as well as,the impact it will have on the global economy.     

From Blowout to Stalemate——China''s Housing Market in 2007

As 2007 comes to an end, China's housing market is preparing for another controversial year.Increasingly restrictive macro-control policies and growing public concern have pushed China's housing market through the initial rise in price over the last couple years, a price blowout at the middle of this year, and finally the current stalemate between sellers and buyers. The end of 2007 has witnessed falling house prices in major cities,like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. It seems that the inflexion of housing prices is right in front of us.Now, let's review some big events from 2007's housing market.     

＂I Won＇t Invest in China＇s Real Estate＂ -- Can Behavioral Economics Save the Capital Bubble？

＂I cannot see clearly when the real estate bubble in China will burst. However, there is certainty that housing prices will swiftly fall, and China can learn the lesson from the 1980s＇ real estate market in Japan＂ said Professor Robert.J.Shiller, ＂I don＇t want to put my judgment as a foreigner on the Chinese people, however, the housing price is obviously too high in some big cities. My suggestion is that since income is in an overall down- ward trend, the housing price should be much lower. Although income will grow as time goes by, the value of Chinese houses should not reach that of London and New York for another 20 to 30 years. Currently, the soaring housing price in China is like a bubble. Personally, I will definitely not buy or invest in property in China.＂     

New Round of Petroleum Products Price Adjustment

Background
On December 18, 2008, a new petroleum products pricing mechanism was carried out in China. According to the Procedure for the Administration of Oil Price （Trial） issued last month by National Development and Reform Commission, if the moving average price for crude oil in international market changes more than 4% in 22 consecutive working days, the prices for gasoline and diesel in domestic market can be adjusted accordingly. So, the curtain for petroleum product price adjustment in domestic market was opened by the end of April.     

Price Problem Produced

Price can be dated back to mankind＇s earliest forms of barter or trade,when our ancient ancestors were counting small seashells used for exchanging goods amongst one another,from these primitive origins price has passed down to today＇s society.
And now in the modern era,we could never live without a tiny label that has an item＇s price on it.Everything has a price,and with large price fluctuations from changes in the market,a price problem has been produced.     

2008-2009 China Market Suppliers List

Company Name： Qingdao FERT Industrial Co., Ltd.
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Chinese steel mills turn to more imported iron ore

China＇s steel industry overestimated the country＇s demand for iron ore and as a result imported a record high amount of the material in March. A surge of domestic steel output and price increases in the beginning of 2009 raised market expectations. Many domestic steel mills and traders increased orders for iron ore in February and March as they anticipated demand would continue growing, said Liang Shuhe, deputy-director with the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce （MOC）, at an industry conference in the port city of Tianjin on April 13.     

AGRICULTURE

Mainland to further open agricultural product market to Taiwan The chief economist of Ministry of Agriculture said on February 28 that the mainland would ensure Taiwan's agricultural products to have more access to the mainland market following a series of favorable entry policies launched in recent years. Chen Mengshan said that the mainland would help Taiwan farmers to expand market presence in the Chinese mainland, and protect the intellectual property     

China steel association opposes Rio-BHP iron ore JV

A global iron ore oversupply, lower spot prices, and huge stockpiles in China＇s domestic iron ore market will improve the odds of Chinese steel mills in securing more cuts in its iron ore price negotiation with overseas suppliers, Du Wei, an Umetal analyst told Xinhua on June 4, China Iron and Steel Association （CISA） refused on May31 to accept the iron ore price cut between 33 percent and 44 percent reached between Rio Tinto and Japan＇s Nippon Steel Corp, and insisted on a price cut of more than 40 percent in the annual contracts of iron ore.     

Electronic Call Market for Commodity Transactions: Design of Computer-Mediated Order Matching System

Commodity exchanges provide potential market structures for electronic trading because commodity products have relatively simple and well-standardized product attributes. Most existing electronic trading systems are introduced for financial exchanges, where qualities of traded products (such as stocks and bonds) are homogeneous, thus taking into account only bid and offer prices for computer-mediated order matching. However, a single commodity market, such as the cotton or grain market, is made up of many heterogeneous goods that are similar to each other but have different product qualities and contract terms. In addition to the price, commodity traders have other pertinent preference ranges over product attributes and delivery conditions. We delineate an electronic call market system for commodity trading, which optimizes the realization of traders' utilities over extended product attributes beyond the price. The electronic call market not only maximizes the total surplus of market participants based on bid and ask prices but also satisfies their qualitative preferences over other attributes, which are difficult to include in the quantitative prices. The trading mechanism of the electronic call market integrates an economic auction model with a social choice model to produce a Pareto-improved transaction. Market simulations are conducted to validate the performance of the proposed electronic call market. The order matching system of the electronic call market is implemented using constraint logic programming.     

Nonlinear dynamics and competing behavioral interpretations: Evidence from intra‐day FTSE‐100 index and futures data

Extant empirical research has reported nonlinear behavior within arbitrage relationships. In this article, the authors consider potential nonlinear dynamics within FTSE‐100 index and index‐futures. Such nonlinearity can be rationalized by the existence of transactions costs or through the interaction between informed and noise traders. They consider several empirical models designed to capture these alternative dynamics. Their empirical results provide evidence of a stationary basis term, and thus cointegration between index and index‐futures, and the presence of nonlinear dynamics within that relationship. The results further suggest that noise traders typically engage in momentum trading and are more prone to this behavior type when the underlying market is rising. Fundamental, or arbitrage, traders are characterized by heterogeneity, such that there is slow movement between regimes of behavior. In particular, fundamental traders act more quickly in response to small deviations from equilibrium, but are reluctant to act quickly in response to larger mispricings that are exposed to greater noise trader price risk. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:343–368, 2006     

农资价格上涨对农业生产带来的负面影响及应对策略

农业生产资料作为农业生产的重要组成部分,农资价格上涨会直接影响到农业生产的效益,进而导致农民生产收入发生变化。近些年来,农资市场价格不稳定、起伏较大,农业生产资料价格上涨,导致种植业的生产成本大幅增加。农资价格上涨不仅会对农资市场的监管和运行产生负面影响,而且会对农民收入的稳定增长产生阻碍。因此,应该加大对农资价格上涨的监管,保证农资价格的平稳运行,在市场监管及宏观调控的要求下,落实政府的各项惠农政策,保证粮食安全和需求储备。     

Trader networks and options risk management

We examine the effect of trading partner concentration and a matrix of variables which dictate the relative importance of a trader to the network on a set of large member proprietary traders’ risk. An increased closeness centrality and concentration of trading among network partners are found to reduce price, volatility and rebalancing risk. We further explore the nature of trading concentration established through traders’ recurring trading relationships to find that trading with an established and small network has a positive, yet costly, effect on inventory management. Relationships among market makers are important to managing their portfolio of risk.     

Concepts of price fairness: empirical research into the Dutch coffee market

This paper researches perceptions of the concept of price fairness in the Dutch coffee market. We distinguish four alternative standards of fair prices based on egalitarian, basic rights, capitalistic and libertarian approaches. We investigate which standards are guiding the perceptions of price fairness of citizens and coffee trade organizations. We find that there is a divergence in views between citizens and key players in the coffee market. Whereas citizens support the concept of fairness derived from the basic rights approach, holding that the price should provide coffee farmers with a minimum level of subsistence, representatives of Dutch coffee traders hold the capitalistic view that the free world market price is fair.     

Futures price limit moves as options

This note demonstrates that an asset's price in an environment with price limit rules can be replicated by the price of a portfolio consisting of a riskless asset and two synthetic options. A procedure is developed to unbundle the unobservable option values imbedded in the actual futures price and impute a theoretical true futures price. Using this framework, evidence from the Treasury Bond futures market suggests that theoretical true futures prices diverge from actual futures prices, on average, 3 h prior to the activation of price limit rules, indicating that price limit moves might be predictable. The reversal of both the actual futures prices and the theoretical futures prices back within the limit range after a limit move provides support for the possibility that traders tend to overreact when market prices are near price limits. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:901–913, 2002     

新形势下中国粮食价格与粮食安全研究

中国粮食价格支持政策对粮价波动的影响比较大,加之粮食市场的开放度不断提高,粮食价格政策托市的现象日益突出,且国内外粮食价格倒挂现象依然突出,国际粮食价格传导对国内粮价的影响越来越大。从粮食生产与需求、粮食国际贸易和库存情况看,中国当前粮食安全是有保障的。但考虑到近年来全球粮食贸易呈现一系列新变化,中国保持粮食价格稳定难度正在提高,且种子安全、耕地安全问题不容忽视。应积极应对美国粮食霸权,进一步完善国内粮食价格体系、加大农业科技投入、加强基本农田保护,并不断优化粮食国际贸易,以确保中国粮食价格稳定,更好地保障中国粮食安全。     

Effective risk aversion in thin risk‐sharing markets

We consider thin incomplete financial markets, where traders with heterogeneous preferences and risk exposures have motive to behave strategically regarding the demand schedules they submit, thereby impacting prices and allocations. We argue that traders relatively more exposed to the market portfolio tend to behave in a more risk tolerant manner. Noncompetitive equilibrium prices and allocations result as an outcome of a game among traders. General sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of such equilibrium are provided, with extensive analysis of two‐trader transactions. Even though strategic behavior causes inefficient social allocations, traders with sufficiently high risk tolerance and/or high initial exposure to tradable securities obtain more utility gain in the noncompetitive equilibrium, when compared to the competitive one.     

Foreign investment,regulation and price volatility in South-east Asian stock markets

This paper examines the extent to which changes in the openness of three South-east Asian Stock Markets to foreign investors impact on the volatility of prices in those markets. Regulatory authorities have been cautious about the opening up of markets to foreign investors, fearing that increased liberalisation may lead to increased price volatility, which, in turn, may have a detrimental effect on the operation of the market and the wider economy. Using an asymmetric GARCH model, it is shown that while greater liberalisation has changed the nature of price volatility in the markets, there has not been a destabilising impact. Rather, asymmetric responses of volatility to news have reduced post-liberalisation, suggesting that informed traders are playing a greater role in the markets, with the impact of noise traders being reduced.     

Vulnerability to Low-Price Signals: An Experimental Study of the Effectiveness of Genuine and Deceptive Signals

Low-price guarantees help buyers make inferences about retailers’ prices. However, researchers are concerned that consumers might be vulnerable to relying on guarantees associated with high market prices. Furthermore, truly low-priced retailers that issue low-price guarantees might be vulnerable to consumers’ discounting of such guarantees. This article experimentally assesses these concerns and finds that the effects of adding a low-price guarantee to a low or high offer price on consumers’ pre-purchase perceptions depend on consumers’ confidence in their product category price knowledge and their decision involvement. The article explores the implications of the findings and provides directions for further research.