A libertarian theory of rights and future generations

The central question in preserving the rights of future generations is how to ground a theory of rights that is also acceptable to the present generation, including staunch Republicans, without self-contradiction. Such a theory of rights consists of the three principles of a minimalist liberatarian theory (that of Robert Nozick), and demonstrates that environmental degradation is a violation of this theory of rights; a theory that is compatible with a free enterprise corporate culture. It is shown that no appeal to liberalism is necessary. It is shown that the case is not based on some ideals of justice but on three politically conservative principles that all modern societies accept as being fundamental to the continuation of those societies. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at Cornell University and at Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung, Berlin. I would like to thank Dr Udo E. Simonis for his helpful comments, but I alone am responsible for any remaining errors. This research is financed by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, grant#410-94-1221.     

Heterogeneous traders and the Tobin tax

To study the effectiveness of the Tobin tax, we develop a model of heterogeneous interacting agents. Traders either speculate on the basis of technical or fundamental analysis, or abstain from the market, a decision which depends on profit considerations, as well as communication between agents. Simulations generate stylized facts such as unit roots in exchange rates, fat tails for returns, or volatility clustering. The imposition of a Tobin tax leads to a crowding out of speculators and stabilizes the dynamics. However, the decreasing impact of fundamentalists triggers misalignments if tax rates are too high. RID="*" ID="*" Presented at the Economic Dynamics Workshop, Leiden, June 2002, and at the Computational Economics and Finance Workshop, Eltville, October 2002. I thank the participants for helpful discussions, especially Carl Chiarella, Cars Hommes, Seppo Honkapohja, Alan Kirman, Thomas Lux, Stefan Reitz, and Didier Sornette. I also thank two anonymous referees for their constructive comments.     

Relative backwardness and technology catching up with scale effects

Controlling for capital accumulation from per capita income growth, this paper shows robust scale effects on total factor productivity growth. The estimated speeds of technology catching up are around 2 percent per year. In addition, the empirical analysis confirms the catching up theory, in which the initial relative backwardness and policy variables conducive to technology adoption are statistically significant. RID="*" ID="*" This is a revised part of Ph.D. thesis at Stanford University. I would like to thank the committee members, Charles I. Jones, Anne O. Krueger, and Paul Romer as well as Ronald Findlay, Ronald I. Mckinnon, Yasuyuki Sawada, Robert Sinclair, a referee and seminar participants at Stanford University, the Pacific Rim Allied Economic Organizations Conference, the East Asian Economic Association Conference, and the 8th World Congress.     

Heterogeneous beliefs and learning in forward looking economic models*

We study a class of forward looking economic models with heterogeneous agents in a bounded rationality setting. The agents employ the same recursive learning rule to update beliefs but are characterized by different memory parameters. The peculiarity of the learning mechanism is that the learning rate is not vanishing in the limit. Differently from what is obtained in the case of a vanishing learning step, i.e., the stability conditions in the heterogeneous agents case are those of the representative agent model, we show that heterogeneity matters for the expectational stability of a stationary perfect foresight equilibrium and that the stability parameter restrictions with heterogeneous agents are stronger than in the case of homogeneous agents.     

Persistent unemployment and co-ordination issues: an evolutionary perspective

Abstract. In this paper we look at unemployment as a phenomenon which reflects the co-ordination problems that characterize out-of-equilibrium processes of adjustment. The analysis carried out shifts the focus from structural factors to the economic process. It shows that unemployment cannot be satisfactorily explained – and policy interventions devised – by focusing only on specific characters of the technology or confining the analysis to structural factors concerning the labour market. The co-ordination mechanisms of adjustment processes rather than the fundamentals of the economy appear, in this light, as the main determinants of differences in unemployment trends in different economies; and monetary policy comes back to the center of the stage as an essential element of the working of these mechanisms. RID="*" ID="*" We thank anonymous referees for their very useful comments, and Elena Lega for the helpful support to the simulation analysis carried out. Correspondence to: J.-L. Gaffard     

Growth and equilibrium indeterminacy: the role of capital mobility

Summary. The paper presents a human capital driven endogenous growth model which, in general, permits a multiplicity of equilibrium balanced growth paths. It is shown that allowing for perfect capital mobility across countries increases the range of parameter values for which the model permits equilibrium indeterminacy. As opposed to the closed capital markets case, simple restrictions on preferences are no longer sufficient to eliminate the indeterminacy. Intuitively, under perfect capital mobility agents are able to smooth consumption completely. This induces an economy with open capital markets to behave like a closed economy with linear preferences thereby increasing the possibility of equilibrium indeterminacy. Received: 18 November 1998; revised version: 10 August 1999     

Pension Reform and Economic Performance Under Imperfect Capital Markets

We consider an overlapping generations model where heterogeneous agents take decisions on consumption and investment in education under the assumption of imperfect capital markets. We study how the introduction of a pay-as-you-go and of a fully funded pension scheme affects output and lifetime opportunities, and then analyse the impact of a pension reform. The standard neutrality result for fully funded pension schemes does not hold in this framework. We establish the conditions under which a fully funded scheme is associated with a higher investment in human capital. We show that the transition path may involve poverty traps     

Economic policy making in evolutionary perspective

Economic policy making is discussed from three different angles: the political economy of actual policy making (“what policy does do”), the analysis of policy instruments for given ends (“what policy could do”), and the debate on policy goals and their legitimization (“what policy ought to do”). Center stage in the evolutionary perspective is new, positive and normative knowledge which is unfolding during the policy making process and in its aftermath. It is argued that this implies regularities and constraints which extend and modify the comparative-static interpretations of public choice theory, economic policy making theory, and social philosophy. RID="*" ID="*" The author should like to thank three anonymous referees of this journal and the editor for helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper.     

Inflation-unemployment tradeoff and regional labor market data

We estimate a linear and a piecewise linear Phillips curve model with regional labor market data for West German and Neue L?nder. Employing regional observations allows us to country difference the data. This eliminates, under the assumption of homogeneous L?nder, supply shocks and changes in the formation of expectations as possible identification failures. With seemingly unrelated regressions we find a flat Phillips curve in the Neue L?nder. For the West German L?nder a piecewise linear model with a higher inflation-unemployment tradeoff for the regime of low unemployment rates fits the data very well. The results hold true if we control for endogeneity of the unemployment rate. With a kinked but upward sloping aggregate supply curve there seems to be room for stabilization policies, at least in the range of aggregate demand shifts that our data covers. First version received: December 2000/Final version accepted: Jan. 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  An earlier version of this paper was written while the second author was at Universidad Carlos III in Madrid. He thanks Juan Dolado and is grateful for financial support by the TMR Program on New Approaches for the Study of Economic Fluctuations. He would also like to thank Bertrand Koebel for his critique on that earlier version. Both authors are grateful to an editor and three anonymous referees for very helpful comments. Moreover, we wish to thank participants of the seminar on Quantitative Wirtschaftsforschung by Jürgen Wolters and Peter Kuhbier, Freie Universit?t Berlin. Finally we profited from discussions with participants at the conferences of the European Economic Association in Lausanne and the Verein für Socialpolitik in Magdeburg where the paper was presented. Of course, all errors are to our sole responsibility.     

Interactive expectations

In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information with each other. Such a model yields multiple equilibria, or attracting distributions, that are persistent but subject to sudden large jumps. Using German Federal Statistical Office economic indicators and German IFO Poll expectational data, we show that this kind of model performs well in simulation experiments. Focusing upon producers' expectations in the consumption goods sector, we also discover evidence that structural change in the interactive process occurred over the period of investigation (1970–1998). Specifically, interactions in expectation formation seem to have become less important over time. RID="*" ID="*"We would like to thank Ulrich Witt, Director of the Evolutionary Economics Unit, The Max Planck Institute for Research into Economic Systems, Jena, Germany, for providing the intellectual stimulus for this project and arranging the necessary financial support from the Max Planck Society to facilitate our collaboration. Thanks are also due to the IFO Institute for providing the data for this study. However, the usual caveat applies.     

On bubbling dynamics generated by a stochastic model of herd behavior

This paper suggests a class of stochastic collective learning processes exhibiting very irregular behavior. In particular, there are multimodal long run distributions. Some of these modes may vanish as the population size increases. This may be thought of as “bubbles” persistent for a finite range of population sizes but disappearing in the limit. The limit distribution proves to be a discontinuous function of parameters determining the learning process. This gives rise to another type of “bubbles”: limit outcomes corresponding to small perturbations of parameters are different. Since an agent's decision rule involves imitation of the majority choice in a random sample of other members of the population, the resulting collective dynamics exhibit “herding” or “epidemic” features. RID="*" ID="*" We are grateful to two anonymous referees for the comments and suggestions. Correspondence to: L. Gaio     

Market institutions and economic evolution

Our cognitive limitations cause us to rely on institutions to guide reasonable behaviour; market institutions reduce the costs of search, negotiation, and monitoring entailed in making single transactions. The making of markets requires an investment of immaterial capital, the major share of which typically is provided by those who expect to be very active on one side of the market. This `external organisation' provides producers with information for the development of new products; by simplifying transactions it also allows consumers greater scope for developing consumption capabilities. Thus the evolution of institutions guides the evolution of goods and services.     

Schumpeter and the revival of evolutionary economics: an appraisal of the literature

During the last two decades we have seen a revival of interest in the works of Joseph Schumpeter and “evolutionary” ideas in economics more generally. A professional society honouring Schumpeter's name has been founded, and linked to it we have had for more than fifteen years now a professional journal devoted to this stream of thought. However, it has been argued that, despite these developments, the link between Schumpeter's own work and the more recent contributions to evolutionary economics is in fact rather weak. This paper considers this claim. Based on an analysis of Schumpeter's contribution to economics the paper presents an overview and assessment of the more recent literature in this area. It is argued that although there are important differences between Schumpeter's work and some of the more recent contributions, there nevertheless remains a strong common core that clearly distinguishes the evolutionary stream from other approaches (such as, for instance, so-called “new growth theory”). RID="*" ID="*" Many people have contributed to this paper in various ways. Jon Hekland at the Norwegian Research Council started it all by asking me to make an overview of the contribution from “evolutionary economics” to our understanding of contemporary economies. Several people helped me on the way by supplying written material, comments and suggestions, and I am indebted to all of them. Brian Arthur, Stan Metcalfe, Keith Pavitt, Erik Reinert, Paolo Saviotti and Bart Verspagen may be particularly mentioned. A preliminary version was presented at the conference “Industrial R&D and Innovation Policy Learning – Evolutionary Perspectives and New Methods for Impact Assessment” organised by the Norwegian Research Council (“SAKI”) at Leangkollen, Asker, April 18–19.2002. I wish to thank the discussant, Tor Jakob Klette, and the participants at the conference for useful feedback. Moreover I have benefited from comments and suggestions from the editors and referees of this journal. The final responsibility is mine, however. Economic support from the Norwegian Research Council (“SAKI”) is gratefully acknowledged.     

A note on control costs and logit rules for strategic games

We consider best response dynamics with endogenous noise based on a finite game in strategic form. A player can reduce the noise level by expending an extra effort and incurring some disutility or control costs. We specify control costs that result in logit adjustment rules. The stochastically stable states of the dynamic process are partial Nash configurations, that is, states where at least one player plays a best response against the others. If the game has a potential, then the stochastically stable states coincide with the Nash equilibria on which the potential is maximized. RID="*" ID="*" Instructive comments of a referee are gratefully acknowledged. Correspondence to:H. Haller     

Theoretical perspectives on strategic environmental management

Strategic Environmental Management (SEM) incorporates into firms' core strategies the transformation of products and processes that they believe an environmentally concerned society will increasingly demand. Significant threads have to do with the discovery of cost savings and market opportunities from reducing environmental impacts. SEM, like the environmental regulation hypothesis associated with Michael Porter, implies that society's efforts to reduce external environmental costs often lead to identification of hitherto-ignored or undeveloped profit possibilities. This would be surprising from the standpoint of neoclassical economic theory, to the extent that SEM utilizes available information about the potential costs and benefits of projects. Within the framework of evolutionary, capabilities-based theories of the firm, however, this discovery and its exploitation in SEM make perfect sense. Capabilities theory would imply that firms' intrinsic path dependence may previously have obscured such opportunities. This paper examines the theory of SEM, its implications for neoclassical and capabilities theories of the firm, and survey results drawn from the author's work with member companies in a regional pollution prevention roundtable. RID="*" IDI have enjoyed the able and insightful research assistance of Justin Vernon. Cooperation from the companies that participated in the survey, and financial support from Allegheny College and its Center for Economic and Environmental Development, are gratefully acknowledged. Reviewers for this journal provided numerous, valuable suggestions. Responsibility for the material herein remains mine alone.     

Multiple attractors and global bifurcations in a Kaldor-type business cycle model

We consider a Kaldor-type discrete-time nonlinear business cycle model in income and capital, where investment is assumed to depend both on the difference between normal and current levels of capital stock, and on the difference between the current income and its normal level, through a nonlinear S-shaped increasing function. As usual in Kaldor business cycle models, one or three steady states exist, and the standard analysis of the local stability and bifurcations suggests that endogenous oscillations occur in the presence of only one unstable equilibrium, whereas the coexistence of three equilibria is characterized by bi-stability, the central equilibrium being on the boundary which separates the basins of the two stable ones. However, a deeper analysis of the global dynamic properties of the model in the parameter ranges where three steady states exist, reveals the existence of an attracting limit cycle surrounding the three steady states, leading to a situation of multistability, with a rich and complex dynamic structure.     

Numerical solution of dynamic oligopoly games with capital investment

Summary. This paper discusses how numerical techniques may be used to solve the simultaneous functional equations that arise in general dynamic stochastic games. Unlike the conventional linear-quadratic approach, our methods may be used to address general model specifications that may include non-quadratic objective functions, non-linear equations of motion, and constraints on decision variables. As an illustration, we apply our methods to a dynamic duopoly game in which competing firms play short-run quantity game subject to production cost that can be lowered through investment in capital stock in the long run. Received: June 1, 2000; revised version: December 27, 2000     

A two-sector overlapping generations model with heterogeneous capital

Summary. This paper characterizes the existence and stability properties of steady state solutions as well as the nature of transition paths of a two-sector growth model with heterogeneous capital. It compares the properties of a Cobb-Douglas–Leontief economy with heterogeneous capital with the properties of the same economy with homogeneous capital. The model with heterogeneous capital reveals a set of characteristics different to those of the model with homogeneous capital. These include the saddle-path stability of the non-trivial steady state as well as the possibility of overshooting and in contrast to the homogeneous capital case, the possibility of damped oscillations along the transition path for realistic parameter values. Received: September 21, 2001; revised version: November 21, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" We thank Costas Azariadis, and Laurie Conway for helpful comments on a previous draft. The paper has substantially benefited from the feedback of an anonymous referee. Correspondence to: R. Wendner     

New insights on earnings trends across skill groups and industries in West Germany

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the structure of earnings in West Germany across skill groups and industries. Our analysis is based on data from the German Socioeconomic Panel for the period 1984 to 1994. We estimate quantile regressions, both for the entire sample period and for each year separately, in order to obtain a finer picture of the earnings structure compared to conventional least squares methods. For robust standard error estimation, this study uses a block bootstrap procedure taking account of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation in the error term. We also suggest a simple procedure to obtain a consistent estimate of inter-industry earnings variability. Our main findings are: first, pooled estimation comprising a uniform time trend is not rejected by the data, and second, the effects of human capital variables and industry dummies on earnings differ considerably across quantiles. First version: May 1998/Final version: April 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  We are grateful to an anonymous referee as well as to Thiess Büttner, Christian Dustmann, Wolfgang Franz, John Haisken-DeNew, Costas Meghir, Werner Smolny, Peter Winker, Volker Zimmermann, and seminar participants in Heidelberg, Kassel, Konstanz, and Paris for helpful comments. However, all errors are our sole responsibility. RID="*" ID="*"  We are grateful to an anonymous referee as well as to Thiess Büttner, Christian Dustmann, Wolfgang Franz, John Haisken-DeNew, Costas Meghir, Werner Smolny, Peter Winker, Volker Zimmermann, and seminar participants in Heidelberg, Kassel, Konstanz, and Paris for helpful comments. However, all errors are our sole responsibility.