Labor Market Reform, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in China

The year 1996 was a turning point both in terms of Chinese labor market reform aria m China＇s economic growth pattern. Before 1996, labor market reform was mainly implemented through adjustment of people＇s occupation and income structure. Since 1996, employment restructuring has led to differentiation in terms of employment status. Labor market reform in the former stage resulted in slow growth in wages, whereas reform in the latter stage enhanced economic efficiency. Both stages have enabled the Chinese economy to apply its comparative advantage of low labor cost. Labor market reform has also increased income disparity and, therefore, new challenges are posed in sustaining economic growth. China needs to adjust its development strategies and introduce labor market reform that can improve income equality, so as to achieve sustainable economic development.     

中国进口与经济增长关系的区域差异分析

利用面板数据对中国东、中、西部的进口额和GDP增长关系进行的实证研究。在短期内，GDP增长对进口额影响最小是中部地区，在长期，西部GDP增长对进口额影响最大。中国经济增长对拉动世界经济增长起了十分重要的作用，中国经济增长减速也会影响全球经济。     

Structural Challenges to Sustained Economic Growth in China

This essay focuses on three broad sets of issues that may not slow China's GDP growth to under 3 percent a year, but they will almost certainly create major social and physical problems that will be difficult to deal with. The first is the demographic and education challenges featured by a rapidly aging population combined with a large share of the population being under-educated. The second is the environmental challenges China faces in achieving the state goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. The third challenge is low consumption and unprecedentedly high investment, a strategy that has driven China's high growth rates in the past decades but is no longer sustainable. These three challenges are intertwined, making China's adjustment path even more uncertain. What would a sustainable development strategy involve? The clearest need is to shift investment away from energy-intensive housing and infrastructure and toward investment in people.     

中国区域生产效率与西部经济发展研究

文章利用1998—2008年的省级面板数据,通过SFA模型估计了估算了中国各省和三大区域1998—2008年的TFP水平及其效率变化和技术进步指数,研究发现要素投入差异是我国地区差距的主要决定因素之一。在此基础上,文章认为西部在TFP方面要想和东部地区缩小差距在短期相当困难,西部能够缩小和东部地区经济差距的最优路径就是使自身经济更开放,突破路径依赖和锁定效应,建立以中期以制造业为核心并重心逐渐向服务业转移的长期经济发展体制,动态提高区域TFP以缩小与东部地区的TFP和经济差距,以达到共同发展建立和谐社会的目标。     

制度改革、政府有效委托和我国经济增长效率

政府主导下的社会主义市场经济性质和我国经济快速增长是我国转轨经济特有的现象,传统新古典经济增长理论和政治制度决定论无法合意解释我国经济增长问题.文章基于组织治理理论和有效委托机制指出,正是我国政府主导型的经济治理和以经济增长为目标的有效委托实现了我国经济增长的效率,强调了市场和政府作为经济主体都有可能实现最优治理和经济增长效率.     

Industrial Structural Change and Economic Growth in China, 1987–2008

The present paper studies the sources of economic growth and the nature of structural change in the Chinese economy from 1987 to 2008. Using a methodology that evaluates the contribution of an industry to economic growth, the present paper shows that the post‐2000 subperiod marked an increased reliance on the services sector as a source of growth in the Chinese economy. Much of the acceleration in real GDP or aggregate labor productivity growth in China in the post‐2000 subperiod compared to the pre‐2000 period can be traced to an increased contribution from service‐producing and high‐technology exporting manufacturing industries. The evidence indicates that the Chinese economy has been rebalancing toward domestic consumption and shifting its export sector toward high‐technology manufacturing industries.     

制度变迁与区域经济增长——中国实证分析

本文以新制度经济学为理论依据，认为制度变迁（即改革）是中国区域经济增长的要素之一。分别以非国有经济比重和合成的制度指数作为测度制度变迁的指标，把中国区域经济增长率对包括制度在内的经济增长诸要素进行回归分析，结果表明，制度变迁与资本是中国区域经济增长的主要贡献因素，而人力资本没有显示出统计上的显著性。     

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Regional Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Provincial Data

Using data for the period 2000–2011, we construct province‐level real effective exchange rate (REER) indices for China and test the effect of REER depreciation on regional economic growth in a generalized method of moments regression framework. Our results show that REER depreciation, in general, promotes regional economic growth, through increasing net exports and lowering FDI costs. After dividing the full sample into coastal and inland subsamples, we find that REER depreciation influences economic growth in inland areas but not in coastal areas. This is due to the fact that the inland areas have more surplus labor or other resources to expand their production capacity when REER depreciation leads to increased world demand. Furthermore, compared to inland areas, processing‐and‐assembly trade comprises a larger share of trade in the coastal areas, where traders import more raw materials and intermediate goods to process and assemble goods. When the exchange rate depreciates, the costs of imported materials and immediate goods increase. In this case, the benefits from REER depreciation in coastal areas are offset to some extent and are thus lower than in inland areas.     

在区域经济发展中培育经济增长极

增长极在推动区域经济发展中具有重大作用.改革开放以来,从经济特区、开发区和新区的发展历程与对地区经济的贡献可以发现,这些区域增长极不仅是我国开放的窗口和改革的试验田,在推动国家和地方经济发展中也发挥了重要作用.十四五时期,要实现经济高质量发展,需要培育新的增长极,进一步优化营商环境,以体制创新形成动力机制,推动经济要素集聚与产业发展.尤其在欠发达地区应更加注重培育经济增长极,发挥区域性中心城市作用,以推动区域协调发展.     

马歇尔两难、商业集群与区域经济增长

“马歇尔两难”是指规模经济与自由竞争之间的矛盾,实质是对市场的争夺。“马歇尔两难”的存在导致地方保护主义盛行,阻碍区域经济增长。通过建立商业集群,利用商业集群“1＋1〉2”的经济效应,可以有效破解“马歇尔两难”,促进区域经济增长。     

财政分权、空间外溢与区域经济增长

分税制改革以后,税收体系被划分为中央与地方两大部分,正式建立起以分税制为中心的财政分权体制。各地区的财政分权程度不仅对本地经济增长有直接影响,还对其他地区的经济增长有间接影响,即存在空间溢出效应。利用我国2005年至2018年31个省（市、自治区）的面板数据,运用空间面板模型,估计和检验财政分权对经济增长的空间效应。研究结果表明：各地区的财政分权不仅促进本地经济增长,还对其他地区的经济增长有显著正向溢出效应。     

台湾经济结构突变、周期波动和经济增长

本文运用结构突变理论,在检验台湾GDP序列的平稳性后,建立台湾GDP序列的拟合模型,实证检验支持台湾GDP序列在1974、1981、2001年产生结构突变,且潜在GDP函数发生了变化。通过分离GDP序列的趋势成分和周期成分,运用周期成分对台湾经济周期波动进行分析。研究发现,台湾经济周期波动主要受世界经济景气和台湾经济发展策略的影响。发生结构突变后台湾经济增长趋势发生变化,这与台湾经济的发展阶段和相应采取的经济发展策略密切相关。论文最后对未来台湾经济增长趋势做出预测。     

结构调整、技术进步与制造业变迁的地区差异

对我国19个省份1993年和2004年制造业统计数据的对比发现,各地区技术进步类型呈阶梯差异,技术冲击、全要素增长与结构调整也对地区间总量增长和效益变化的差异性具有显著作用。改变我国制造业增长地区差距继续扩大的现实,欠发达地区必须加快经济转型与体制改革的步伐,进一步提高结构调整的速率,积极吸收东部地区与发达国家的成熟技术和闲置资本。     

区域金融发展与经济发展关系研究

我国区域经济发展水平差距较大,经济发展与金融发展水平配合存在一定偏差。文章利用动态均衡分析区域金融发展水平与经济发展之间关系,并以上海经济为例分析我国经济较发达地区区域金融发展与经济发展均衡所形成良性的发展通道,有利于促进产业结构调整,转变经济发展方式并实现可持续发展。     

区域能源碳排放与经济增长的脱钩趋势分析

文章在测算中国各地区2001-2012年能源消费碳排放的基础上,结合脱钩理论和聚类分析方法,运用地理信息系统软件Arc-GIS,实证分析了这期间我国区域能源碳排放和经济增长的空间脱钩趋势。研究结果发现,中国大多数省份的能源碳排放与经济发展之间呈现弱脱钩的关系。在递进进行的脱钩关系的恒等式因果链分解后,可知中国工业领域的能源利用效率的显著提高和能源消费过程中电气化水平的稳步推进是中国各省区碳排放增长速度减缓的主要原因,而在此期间中国各省区经济增长对工业、特别是重工业的严重依赖是中国各省区碳排放增长的主要原因。     

Multinationals,Institutions and Economic Growth in China

This study examines the effects of multinationals and economic institutions on the economic growth of cities in China. Consistent with previous findings, the empirical results suggest that property rights institutions are significantly more important than contracting institutions in promoting economic growth. The direct effect of multinationals on economic growth is generally insignificant statistically. However, a statistically significant and robust interaction effect exists between property rights institutions and multinationals on economic growth, whereas no such effect is observed between contracting institutions and multinationals. The results are attributable to the fact that multinationals can rely on reputation or personal connections to enforce contracts when contracting institutions are weak. However, it is difficult for multinationals to operate when the state expropriates their profits (i.e. property rights institutions are weak).     

中国经济增长方式的转变:判别标准与动力源泉

本文通过构建总量生产函数模型,建立了中国经济增长方式的判断标准;在此基础上,利用1978年～2005年的相关数据分析了中国经济增长方式转变的进程;然后进一步探析了中国经济增长的源泉。结论表明,中国经济增长方式转变的过程呈现出曲折且漫长的特点,产业结构状况的恶化使得由人力资本、产业结构状况、技术进步所左右的全要素生产率的增长处于低水平。     

Financial Structure,Technology, and Economic Growth: A Structural Matching Perspective

Different types of capital are better suited to financing technologies with different risk profiles, and structural matching between finance and technology may critically influence economic growth. Using cross-province panel data from China, we estimated the impact of the matching relationship between regions' financial structure and technology level on economic growth. We show that: (i) the matching relationship had a statistically significant positive impact on economic growth; (ii) structural mismatching reduced economic growth in comparison with the optimal matching point; (iii) structural matching better facilitated economic growth in more developed regions; and (iv) capital accumulation and technological progress were two of the main channels through which matching influenced economic growth. We address potential endogeneity concerns and perform robustness checks, and our results remain valid. Our findings provide convincing evidence for the optimal financial structure theory and explain China's rapid growth despite its comparatively underdeveloped securities market.     

Regional Dynamics in Japan: A Reexamination of Barro Regressions

Cross-section regressions, so-called “Barro regressions,” have been widely used in world and regional income data to test whether convergence takes place. This paper applies alternative methodologies, a time series test and a Markov chain model, to Japanese prefectural data and reexamines the results of J. Barro and X. Sala-i-Martin (1992,J. Japan. Int. Econ.6, 312–346). These methodologies show that the hypothesis of convergence as “catching up” does not hold for Japanese prefectural data. Through analyses similar to those of Barro and Sala-i-Martin, Markov chain models are shown to be more informative than cross-section regressions about the evolution of cross-section data.J. Japan. Int. Econ., March 1999,13(1), pp. 61–72. ECO/CS3, OECD, 2 rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France.Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: C21, C22, C23, E32, E37, O41.