股票收益与通货膨胀：代理效应还是通货膨胀幻觉

本文运用ADL模型实证检验1995～2004年中国和世界主要股市的实际收益与通货膨胀的关系,结果显示,中国股票实际收益-9通货膨胀表现为显著的负相关,与西方主要成熟股票市场相比并不异常。经过检验发现,股票收益与实质经济和货币政策都呈现不显著的负相关,并不支持代理假说;同时,存在明显的门槛效应,通货膨胀提高了实际收益,通货紧缩降低了实际收益,通货膨胀幻觉是导致股票收益与通货膨胀呈现负相关的主要原因。     

通货膨胀与股票市场行业分化

通货膨胀将从宏观和微观渠道影响不同行业公司的股票收益,本文重点考察中国股票市场中不同行业上市公司股价受通货膨胀影响的差异特征。研究结果表明,样本期内通货膨胀引发股票市场产生行业分化现象,不同行业股票收益受通货膨胀的影响存在明显的差异。强周期行业如金融、能源和材料等随着通货膨胀上升受益明显,而弱周期行业如医药、公用事业等在通货膨胀下降过程中受损较小。     

金融资产收益动态相关性:基于DCC多元变量GARCH模型的实证研究

金融资产收益之间的相关性对于投资者的分散化投资与资产配置决策有着重要的影响。股票和债券是可供投资者选择的最主要的两种金融资产。基于DCC(Dynamic ConditionalCorrelation)多元变量GARCH模型(Multivariate GARCH Model)对我国股票市场和债券市场收益之间的相关性进行估计,结果表明我国股票和债券收益之间的相关性呈现出动态时变的特征,并且相关性的波动性很大。此外,通过对影响我国股票和债券收益之间相关性的主要因素进行的分析,发现通货膨胀率和股票市场风险会对我国股票和债券收益之间的相关性产生显著影响。     

黄金价格、中国黄金储备与通货膨胀关系研究

文章通过格兰杰因果检验了黄金价格、人民币实际有效汇率、国内货币供应量与通货膨胀的关系。研究认为,黄金是对抗通货膨胀的有效工具,黄金价格上涨、黄金储备增大、国际石油价格和大宗商品价格上浮对通货膨胀有持续的拉动效应;货币供应量与通货膨胀之间存在短期与长期效应不一致的现象。提出密切关注黄金价格、增加国家黄金储备、建立黄金价格预警机制等措施。     

通货膨胀影响股票市场的实证分析

本文主要考察通货膨胀对中国股票市场股票收益的影响.计量分析发现,通货膨胀与中国股票市场的股票收益呈负相关关系,但在统计上并不显著,且通货膨胀对沪深股市的影响存在较为明显的差异特征.这表明,尽管深沪两市基本制度架构相似,但市场运行模式存在一定的差异性.     

通货膨胀与股票价格波动

股票收益和通货膨胀之间的关系不仅依赖于供给冲击和需求冲击,而且还受到货币政策制度的影响。需求冲击使得两者是正相关的,供给冲击对两者关系的作用还和货币政策制度有关。顺周期的货币政策使得供给冲击对两者关系是正相关的,而逆周期的货币政策使得供给冲击对两者关系是负相关的。对中国1991年1月—2009年7月实践的经验分析表明,股票收益和通货膨胀的相关性发生了两次结构性突变。进一步分析表明,1997年6月股票收益和通货膨胀的结构性突变主要是由货币政策制度引起的;2005年8月股票收益和通货膨胀的结构性突变主要是供给冲击和需求冲击的相对重要性发生了改变而导致的。     

通货膨胀影响股票市场的实证分析

本文主要是描写通货膨胀对于我国股票的收益分析和影响。我们通过多种验证分析,得出了通货膨胀与股票有着明显的正负关联,在统计中的现实并不明显,通货膨胀对于深沪股市有着明显的影响。这说明,虽然深沪股市的框架类似,但是还是在某些方面上有差别。     

股票收益与通货膨胀悖论及其原因

自从20世纪70年代以来，通货膨胀成为当今世界各国普遍存在的经济现象。费雪效应表明，股票可以抵御通货膨胀，是一种良好的套期保值资产。但是，20世纪70年代以来国内外大量的实证研究表明。股票收益率与通货膨胀率之间并不存在正相关关系，而是呈负相关关系。本文对股票收益与通货膨胀问负相关关系的原因进行了系统总结和梳理。     

金融行业上市公司公允价值会计的价值相关性

公允价值会计对金融行业的重要性强于其他行业,本文以2007~2013年沪深两市金融行业上市公司为样本,使用价格模型和收益模型检验公允价值会计对股票报酬与股票价格的影响。基于金融资产处置时公允价值变动转回特征,本文对交易性和可供出售金融资产公允价值变动信息进行检验发现:公允价值计量的每股净资产对股票价格和股票报酬均有显著解释力;考虑公允价值变动损益转回的交易性金融资产等产生的公允价值变动损益对股票价格和股票报酬有显著解释力,不考虑转回的公允价值变动损益对股票价格和股票报酬均无显著解释力;可供出售金融资产的公允价值变动信息不具有价值相关性,表明我国证券市场具有"功能锁定"效应,信息使用者"丢了西瓜捡芝麻"。     

黄金：理财产最“双面娇娃”

盘点2010年中国经济热点词汇排行榜,“通货膨胀”肯定榜上有名。由于与通货膨胀的密切反向关系,黄金成为了理财界“抗通胀”的代名词,它“抗通胀＋稳收益”的“双面娇娃”身份正日益呈现在广大投资者面前。按照投资交易的时间不同,黄金可以分为现货黄金投资和期货黄金投资。由于个人投资者无法交割黄金期货合约,再加上黄金期货的相对高风险陛,使不少看好黄金后市的投资者,比较青睐现货黄金的投资。     

Measures of underlying inflation in the euro area: assessment and role for informing monetary policy

The paper evaluates the 24-month-ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation and structural models. Measures derived using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) overperform other measures over the monetary policy horizon and are leading indicators of headline inflation. Trimmed means, although weaker than GDFM indicators, have good forecasting performance, while indicators by permanent exclusion underperform but provide useful information about short-term dynamics. The forecasting performance of theoretically-founded models that relate monetary aggregates, the output gap, and inflation improves with the time horizon but generally falls short of that of the GDFM. A composite measure of underlying inflation, derived by averaging the statistical indicators and the model-based estimates, improves forecast accuracy by eliminating bias and offers valuable insight about the distribution of risks.     

Open-Economy Inflation-Forecast Targeting

Abstract. We study simple inflation-forecast targeting in an open-economy setting. Simple inflation-forecast targeting implies setting an interest rate which, if kept unchanged throughout the forecast-targeting horizon, produces a conditional inflation forecast equal to the inflation target at the end of the horizon. We find that the optimal forecast-targeting horizon is relatively short (one year). A longer horizon does not consistently contribute to improved output stability, indeed it increases exchange rate variability and traded sector variability. The targeting procedure is substantially inferior to the optimal pre-commitment policy. Moreover, the targeting procedure does not necessarily determine the rational-expectations equilibrium and is subject to time inconsistency.     

The Fisher effect: new evidence and implications

Using monthly data in the 1980s and early 1990s, our results do not support the short-run Fisher effect since short-term interest rates are associated with negligible changes in expected inflation. However, inflation and nominal interest rates exhibit common stochastic trends in the long run. Consequently, the correlation between nominal interest rates and inflation rates increases with maturity until they move in a one-to-one relation at long horizon. This is evident by the correlation coefficients of the Johansen test for cointegration that increase with the maturity of US government securities from 2 to 5 years.     

The link between inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence from G7 countries

In this paper we adopt the Markov-switching heteroscedasticity model to analyse the inflation series for G7 countries and examine the interaction between inflation rate and its uncertainty over both the short- and long-run. It is found that the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty depends on whether the shock is permanent or transitory. The relationship also differs from country to country. High uncertainty about long-run inflation is associated with a significant positive shift in inflation for Canada, Germany, and Japan. High uncertainty about short-run inflation is associated with a significant positive shift in inflation for Germany and USA, and a significant negative shift in inflation for Canada. The modelling approach employed in this paper is empirically supported by various diagnostics including the Vuong test. We also derive the two components of the variance of inflation forecast for a particular forecast horizon. It is found that the inflation uncertainty increases at all horizons in the middle of 1970s and return to the low level in the middle of 1980s.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: October 2003We would like to thank three anonymous referees for many helpful comments and suggestions.     

Assessing inflation expectations anchoring for heterogeneous agents: analysts,businesses and trade unions

Forecasts of agents who are actively involved in the setting of prices and wages are less readily available than those of professional analysts but may be more relevant for understanding inflation dynamics. Here we compare inflation expectations anchoring between analysts, businesses and trade unions for one country for which comparable forecasts are available for almost two decades: South Africa. Forecasts are modelled as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point, or ‘implicit anchor’, towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. We find that the estimated inflation anchors of analysts lie within the 3–6 percent inflation target range of the central bank. However, those for businesses and trade unions, which our evidence suggests may be the most relevant for driving the inflation process, have remained above the top end of the official target range. Our results point to challenges for central banks seeking to gain credibility with agents whose decisions directly influence inflation.     

Monetary Policy, Nominal Interest Rates, and Long–Horizon Inflation Uncertainty

Empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that the predictability of inflation at long horizons varies considerably across countries. Both simple theory and empirical evidence suggest that the crucial factor is the extent to which systematic monetary policy succeeds in preventing a unit root in inflation. The mechanism by which it does this appears however to be complicated by strong empirical evidence that nominal as well as real interest rates have real effects, which implies that monetary policy need not be so vigorous in reactions to inflation. This helps to explain why inflation rates in the US and (especially) Germany have been relatively predictable, despite monetary policy rules which appear to have been barely stabilising. The paper also presents tentative evidence that the power of nominal interest rate effects is inversely related to long–horizon inflation uncertainty, and hence ultimately uncertainty about monetary policy.     

The evolution of inflation expectations in Canada and the US

We model inflation forecasts as monotonically diverging from an estimated long‐run anchor point towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecaster‐level data for Canada and the US, we identify three key differences between the two countries. First, the average estimated anchor of US inflation forecasts has tended to decline gradually over time in rolling samples, from 3.4% for 1989–1998 to 2.2% for 2004–2013. By contrast, it has remained close to 2% since the mid‐1990 for Canadian forecasts. Second, the variance of estimates of the long‐run anchor is considerably lower for the panel of Canadian forecasters than US ones following Canada's adoption of inflation targets. And third, forecasters in Canada look much more alike than those in the US in terms of the weight that they place on the anchor. One explanation for these results is that an explicit inflation‐targeting regime (Canada) provides for less uncertainty about future monetary policy actions than a monetary policy regime where there was no explicit numerical inflation target (the US before 2012) to anchor expectations.     

Do stock returns hedge inflation at long horizons?

We investigate the long-horizon relationship between market returns and inflation in the United States. Conventional tests for long horizon predictability may reject the null too frequently when the predictor variable is highly persistent and endogenous and there are overlapping observations. We use a recently developed econometric technique designed to overcome these problems. We find little to no evidence that securities are able to hedge inflation.     

Flexible inflation forecast targeting: Evidence from Canada

We test whether the Bank of Canada pursues a flexible inflation forecast target, one that weights output growth as well as inflation. For the period 1996–2007, we find evidence that the Bank did effectively pursue such a target over the forecast horizon of 12 to 18 months. We find the relative weight that the Bank gives to output growth in its target to be positive and statistically significant within the range of 0.2 to 0.4.     

The inflationary bias of real uncertainty and the harmonic Fisher equation

Summary. We argue that real uncertainty itself causes long-run nominal inflation. Consider an infinite horizon cash-in-advance economy with a representative agent and real uncertainty, modeled by independent, identically distributed endowments. Suppose the central bank fixes the nominal rate of interest. We show that the equilibrium long-run rate of inflation is strictly higher, on almost every path of endowment realizations, than it would be if the endowments were constant.Indeed, we present an explicit formula for the long-run rate of inflation, based on the famous Fisher equation. The Fisher equation says the short-run rate of inflation should equal the nominal rate of interest less the real rate of interest. The long-run Fisher equation for our stochastic economy is similar, but with the rate of inflation replaced by the harmonic mean of the growth rate of money.Received: 25 February 2005, Revised: 26 May 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C7, C73, D81, E41, E58.An earlier version of this paper “Inflationary Bias in a Simple Stochastic Economy,” as a 2001 Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1333.