地区竞争、支出责任下移与地方政府债务扩张

地方政府债务过度扩张容易引发系统性经济风险。本文通过一个地方政府举债行为理论模型,分析了政府间共同事权的支出责任下移、竞争性地区的举债行为对地方政府债务规模的影响。在此基础上构建空间面板计量模型,利用279个地级市数据进行回归分析,结果表明:地方政府债务扩张是支出责任下移与标尺竞争机制共同驱动的结果;政府间支出责任下移造成的财政压力是地方政府被动负债的重要原因;地方政府间的标尺竞争使其在举债融资行为上表现为明显的策略模仿;各地区在债务扩张的主因上存在异质性,东部地区政府债务的增加主要是地区间竞争的结果。这意味着化解地方政府债务风险不仅应规范政府间财政支出责任划分,更重要的是完善地方政府的政绩考核体系和违规举债的问责机制。     

分税与地方财政支出结构

本文研究了税收分成对地方财政支出结构的影响。理论分析发现,在地方政府的财政支出结构竞争中,税收分成比例的提高将直接导致地方政府增加生产性公共支出,发挥生产性支出的产出外部性,提高产出水平和自身税收收入水平,实现福利最大化。一系列经验分析显著地验证了上述结论,即当地级市政府的税收分成率提高10%,该地区生产性支出占比将提高1.39%。本文的分析和结论有助于解释中国地方财政支出结构变动的原因,从而为政府间税收分配改革提供有效的政策建议。     

内生增长理论对政府公共支出与经济增长关系的解释——来自中国1952—2011年的经验证据

本文基于内生增长理论（Endogenous Growth Theory）分析政府公共支出与经济增长的关系。基于Barro（1990）提出的框架,但采用Arrowand Kutz（1970）提出的方法,将公共投资通过直接资本形成增加资本存量,形成内生经济增长,并采用Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans（1965）模型的基本假设,利用1952—2011年中国时间序列数据对影响经济增长的因素进行检验。结果显示：政府公共物质资本投入及政府人力资本投入对经济增长均具有正效应,但政府公共物质资本投入对经济增长的效应微弱,而政府人力资本投入对经济增长的效应较大。同时还验证了政府物质资本投入并不是经济增长的格兰杰原因（Granger Cause）,而政府人力资本投资是经济增长的格兰杰原因（Granger Cause）,且影响滞后并持久,教育投入对中国经济增长的影响是长期渗透的。     

外在压力与内在激励：老龄化背景下地方政府的财政选择

在人口老龄化背景下,地方政府的财政支出选择存在外在压力和内在激励。在理论分析人口老龄化影响地方财政支出偏好的作用机制基础上,采用中国省级财政数据检验老龄化背景下地方财政选择偏好。研究结果表明：地方政府财政支出是提高社会福利支出的外在压力和增强地方财政可持续性的内在激励的多路径效应结果,这种影响效应具有财政自给率和老龄化程度的非对称性。为了实现地方财政可持续性和有效应对老龄化社会的公众诉求压力,有必要尽快完善地方政府考核体系,完善地方公共支出的需求表达机制,改善当前财政支出责任地方化的状态。     

河北省财政运行风险及防范对策研究

近年来,面对经济社会各领域公共风险,河北财政通过减收、增支、加债等方式,有效防控了公共风险的暴发,全省财政经济运行整体平稳,但也导致财政自身风险的累积,体现在财政收入持续增长后劲不足、财政支出保障难度逐步增加、地方政府债务风险存有隐患、其他领域风险趋向财政转移等.防控地方财政经济运行风险,需要充分发挥财政职能,加强财源建设,推动财政收入持续增长;调整支出方向,确保地方财政平稳运行;完善管理机制,防范地方政府债务风险;深化体制改革,消除财政风险转移隐患.     

人口结构、财政支出刚性对地方政府性债务的影响——基于中国省级面板数据的研究

根据2012年各省级政府地方政府债务数据和1995~2013年省级层面地方政府债务水平的面板数据,运用固定效应模型、差分 GMM 和系统 GMM 模型,考量人口流出比例、老年人口抚养比、财政支出刚性对地方政府债务增长的影响。结果表明：人口流出比例越高、老年人口抚养比越高,财政支出刚性越高,地方政府负债率越高。鉴此,应严格政府举债程序,改变以户籍为导向的财政转移支付政策,理顺各级政府之间的财税关系。     

财政竞争、地方政府政策选择与经济增长——基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究

分税制背景下财政分权体制使得地方政府之间存在着激烈的财政竞争,其典型特征表现为税负、公共投入支出和公共服务支出三种政策工具之间的策略互动,从而影响各地区的经济增长。基于1997～2009年中国省级面板数据,通过估计交互项系数的符号,结果发现:地方政府的三种政策工具是相辅相成的;交互项的作用也存在着地区的差异;税负、公共服务支出和公共投入支出对经济增长有着不同的边际影响。     

政府支出规模与资源配置效率——基于中国工业企业数据的经验研究

运用 OP协方差法测算资源配置效率,基于中国工业企业数据和城市统计数据,考量地方政府支出规模与当地制造业行业内资源配置效率的关系.结果显示:政府支出规模越大的地区,资源配置效率越低,政府支出规模对资源配置效率的影响存在地区异质性.     

税收竞争与地区环保财政支出: 传导机制及其检验

分析税收竞争、资本流动及环保支出的关系并提出假说;在此基础上建立空间杜宾模型,并使用2007-2016年省级数据系统地考察税收竞争对政府环保支出的影响机制。研究结果表明：地区间环保支出存在显著的空间溢出效应,税收竞争与地区环保支出正相关;地区间环保支出存在明显的策略性互动;资本存量是税收竞争影响环保支出的一个主要传导渠道。     

Government size,composition of public expenditure,and economic development

This paper analyzes the effects of government size and of the composition of public expenditure on economic development. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models, on a sample covering up to 156 countries and 5-year periods from 1980 to 2010, we find that government size as a percentage of GDP has a quadratic (inverted U-shaped) effect on the growth rate of the Human Development Index (HDI). This effect is especially pronounced in developed and high-income countries. We also find that the composition of public expenditure affects development, with the share of five subcomponents exhibiting nonlinear relationships with HDI growth.     

Is Government Expenditure Volatility Harmful for Growth? A Cross‐Country Analysis*

The aim of the paper is to analyse the relationship between government expenditure volatility and long‐run growth. Using cross‐country panel data from 1970 to 2000, the paper finds that countries with higher government expenditure business‐cycle volatility have lower growth, even after controlling for other country‐specific growth correlates such as investment, government expenditure, human capital, population growth and output volatility. This relation is robust to different measures of business cycles. Moreover, considering different subsamples, the paper finds that while government volatility significantly affects long‐run growth for developing countries, it has a small effect for OECD countries.     

All in the Mind: Citizen Satisfaction and Financial Performance in the Victorian Local Government System

While a significant body of literature exists on local government efficiency, much less is known about its effectiveness, especially financial performance and resident satisfaction. To address this gap in the empirical literature, the present paper uses system‐wide official annual data on resident satisfaction in the Victorian state local government system in Australia to investigate the relationship between annual net operating results and overall citizen satisfaction. In addition, in order to garner a deeper understanding of this relationship, we evaluated the assumption in the ‘near‐to‐zero balance’ public accounting literature that local residents prefer an insignificant annual balance in operating performance compared to substantial annual losses or surpluses. We found that there is a significant negative association between overall satisfaction and its components and financial performance for Victorian local government as a whole. However, this association is largely restricted to rural councils with surpluses. By contrast, we find no relationship between satisfaction and near‐to‐zero balances. We conclude by considering the implications of our findings for both the public accounting literature and local government policymaking.     

权力异化、国家审计与地方政府负债

地方官员权力异化和国家审计监管对地方政府负债行为有显著影响。官员权力异化越严重,地方政府债务增长速度越快,债务风险越大。但是,国家审计监管力量越强,越有可能降低官员权力异化对地方政府负债的影响程度,进而降低地方政府负债增长速度和债务风险。结果表明,较强的国家审计监管力度有助于防止地方政府官员权力滥用和寻租,规范地方政府融资行为。     

论公共卫生最优支出策略

公共卫生支出具有极强的正外部性.如果由地方政府或私人选择公共卫生支出的水平,那么他们的最优选择是较低的公共卫生支出和较高的个人消费(内含个人医疗支出),整个社会的福利将会处于较低的水平状态.本文在一个动态的框架下分析了发生这种现象的经济学原因,说明中央政府而非地方政府或私人应该对公共卫生的建设承担更大的责任,应由中央政府负责全国公共卫生体系的建设.     

New development: What is the meaning of philosophy for local government officers?

This article reflects on how the philosophical foundations of public administration and the practice of local government can be linked together. Informed by Ongaro, E. (2017. Philosophy and public administration: An introduction. Edward Elgar), the relationship between philosophy and public administration is considered, followed by a discussion of what this means for local government. Virtue ethics and utilitarianism are applied to two current examples of local government practice. The article ends by detailing key points for the future relationship between philosophy and local government.     

中国财政改革与经济增长实践

基于内生增长理论分析改革开放后历次财政变革与经济增长关系,并利用协整与回归分析检验该关系.结果表明:中国财政与经济增长具有长期稳定关系;前期财政变革强调财政激励效应,为中国市场经济奠定了制度基础;后期财政变革强调稳态增长效应,这使中央财政需有稳定财源,以保证其外部性生产要素充分供给;相比于地方财政的收敛增长效应,中央财政体现出稳态增长效应.     

GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: Trends, Causes, and Consequences

Throughout the twentieth century governments have been spendingever larger proportions of national income. Three issues arisein discussions about the growth of such spending as it pertainsto developing countries: How does it compare with expenditurein industrial nations? What explains the growth in spendingby developing country governments? And what are the effectson economic growth? Government expenditure as a share of GDPin low- and middle-income countries, on average, is lower thancomparable shares in industrial market economies and, with fewexceptions, is growing. Many factors, including ideology, demographics,a positive income elasticity for public goods, the rising costof public goods relative to private goods, and perhaps developmenttheory and practice, explain this growth. As for the relationshipbetween government expenditure and economic growth, the empiricalevidence does not reveal any strong correlation. The size ofgovernment may engender strong ideological debate, but the positionthat the aggregate level of government expenditure is a significantdeterminant of growth rates receives little support.      

我国财政支出结构的实证分析

基于2006-2011年我国31个省份一般财政支出数据,运用因子分析方法对我国不同时期各地的财政支出结构进行实证分析。结果发现：第一,一般公共服务、国防、公共安全、教育和科学技术等13个不同支出项目可以通过＂偏高级经济技术＂、＂偏社会保障服务＂、＂偏基本设施建设＂较好地反映;第二,地方政府活动的范围和方向以高级经济技术为中心,但逐渐转变为以基本设施建设为中心,后来又转变偏社会保障服务,充分反映不同时期政府政策的重点。最后,笔者分别从财政政策、政府管理模式、财政赤字、税收政策四个角度阐述这一财政支出变化的原因。     

财政自主权、财政支出结构与全要素生产率--来自230个地级市的检验北大核心

本文尝试将财政自主权、财政支出结构与经济效率联系,在我国财政分权理论框架下揭示地方财政自主权与技术进步之间的关系。在理论上,提出了"地方财政自主权越高,技术进步水平也越高,但随着经济性财政支出边际效率递减以及社会性财政支出的长期不足,财政自主权对技术进步的影响正在减弱"的命题假说。在实证上,以1999-2013年230个城市数据,采用工具变量法检验了财政自主权对城市全要素生产率的影响。实证结果表明:(1)城市财政自主权对城市全要素生产率影响较弱,主要是对TFP组成中的规模效率(SE)和技术进步(TP)产生了较为明显的正影响;(2)财政自主权越高的城市,越倾向于增加经济性财政支出比重,而对于社会性支出则更有动机展开"逐底竞争";(3)财政自主权对全要素生产率构成中的规模效率(SE)和技术进步(TP)的影响呈现出减弱的趋势;(4)城市财政自主权的提高可以显著改进微观企业层面的全要素生产率水平。     

Overlapping tax revenue,soft budget,and rent seeking

This paper investigates how the soft-budget constraint with grants from the central government to local governments tends to internalize the vertical externality of local public investment by stimulating local expenditure when both the central and local governments impose taxes on the same economic activities financed by public investment. The model incorporates the local governments’ rent-seeking activities in a multi-government setting. The soft-budget constraint is welfare deteriorating because it stimulates rent-seeking activities, although a soft-budget game may attain the first-best level of public investment.