Sectoral Patterns of Interactive Learning: An Empirical Exploration of a Case in a Dutch Region

This paper pursues the development of a theoretical framework that explains interactive learning between innovator firms and external actors in both the knowledge infrastructure and the production chain. The research question is: What kinds of factors explain the interactive learning of innovator firms with distinct external actors? Our theoretical framework extends the resource-based perspective, which is predominant in network theory, with both an activity-based and a structural account of interactive learning. We contend basically that higher technological dynamics induce more complex innovative activities. But, more complex innovative activities increase the probability of internal resource deficits/shortages in the innovator firms. The lower the alignment of the innovative activities with the quality of the internal resource base, the higher the resource deficits/shortages and the more likely the search for complementary resources externally, which increases the likeliness of external relationships. In order to test the generality of our theoretical claims we analyse our models in four sectors with distinct technological dynamics as distinguished by Pavitt. For each sector we explore five models of the level of interactive learning of innovator firms with: (1) the public knowledge infrastructure (difficult to access, demands high internal competencies to utilize scientific knowledge), (2) the production chain (easy to access), (3) their users, (4) their suppliers, (5) their competitors. These analyses allow for a comparison between interactive learning with different external actors and give deeper insights into the differentiated interaction patterns involving innovation. Our findings show that patterns of interactive learning between sectors differ. Some are more resource based and others are more affected by the complexity of innovative activities. Particularly the patterns of interactive learning between, on the one hand, firms and the knowledge infrastructure, and on the other hand of firms with the production chain show important differences.     

An Empirical Analysis of a Regional Dutch Disease: The Case of Canada

While there has been extensive research on the Dutch Disease (DD), very little attention, if any, has been devoted to the regional mechanisms through which it may manifest itself. This is the first empirical attempt to research a ‘regional DD’ by looking at the local and spatial impacts of resource windfalls across Canadian provinces and territories. We construct a new panel dataset to examine separately the key DD channels; namely, the Spending Effect and the Resource Movement Effect. Our analysis reveals that the standard DD mechanisms are also relevant at the regional level; specifically, we find that: (a) Resource windfalls are associated with higher inflation and a labour (capital) shift from (to) non-primary tradable sectors. (b) Resource windfalls in neighbouring regions are associated with a capital (labour) shift from (to) non-primary tradable sectors in the source region. (c) The (spatial) DD explains (51  %) 20  % of the adverse effects of resource windfalls (in neighbouring regions) on region-specific non-mineral international exports (in the source region), and does not significantly affect domestic ones.     

Sectoral Selection and Informality: a Nicaraguan Case Study

Using microdata from the 1998 and 1993 Nicaraguan Living Standards Measurement Survey, this paper analyzes the relative size and attractiveness of formal and informal sector employment. Switching regression models of the formal/informal sector employment choice indicate that education across years and gender are the primary determinants of formal sector participation. Furthermore, the formal sector is characterized by positive selection. The results for the informal sector are less definitive, but are also suggestive of positive selection. These findings imply that the informal and formal sectors in Nicaragua contribute positively to the overall economy by attracting those individuals best suited for (in)formal sector employment.     

转型经济中农户储蓄行为:中国农村的实证研究

本文运用大样本农户家庭调查资料 ,对决定中国农户家庭储蓄行为的影响因素进行了探索 ,从实际出发构建了一个具有较好解释力 ,且能对各种类型的变量均有所考虑的储蓄模型。研究发现 :(a)流动性约束、预防性储蓄动机以及工业化等对储蓄率的上升贡献相当大 ,且为正值 ;(b)在解释区域间储蓄率的差异时 ,文化是一个相当重要的因素 ;(c)家庭生命周期的“∪”型分布假说被拒绝 ,相反的“∩”型分布被发现 ;(d)当家庭财富与储蓄率的相关关系表现为负时 ,持久收入假说也被拒绝。     

An Empirical Examination of Entry Patterns in Local Telephone Markets*

In this analysis we examine the market entry patterns of new local telephone companies. We construct and estimate a multinomial logit model using information describing numbering code distribution within local telephone markets and the associated income, density, and regulatory characteristics of these markets. Our findings support the conventional wisdom that facilities-based entry by new local competitors is more likely to occur in large urban telephone markets. In addition, we present evidence that, with the exception of territories served by Ameritech, entry is more likely to occur in Bell Operating Company service territories.     

On the Contemporary Commodity Structure of World Trade Patterns: An Empirical Assessment

For about 150 years, international trade theory has mostly highlighted trade in consumption goods. Such a modeling approach was likely supported by the then prevailing commodity structure of world trade. This paper shows that – at least since 1970 – only about 20 per cent of commodity trade has taken place in consumables, the remainder being intermediates and capital goods. Theoretically, this evidence suggests a move in the modelling strategy for traded goods: from utility functions to production functions. Sanyal and Jones' "new trade theory" (1982) does precisely that. In addition, some crucial research challenges emerge. These relate to dynamic changes in some general characteristics of production technologies throughout the world.     

中国式"荷兰病"影响中国财政收支格局的实证分析

中国式荷兰病来源于中国入世后外向型劳动力密集型产业的空前繁荣。本文从实证角度分析了中国式荷兰病通过体制惰性效应对中国财政收支体制与财政收支政策的诸多影响。研究发现,在中国整体财政能力增强和财政收支状况改善的同时,不仅我国外债结构、中央与地方财政关系明显恶化,而且社会财富加速向公共部门集中,国富民穷现象突出,经济增长方式转变受到较大制约。文章最后建议及时对个人、企业进行实质性减税,积极扩大政府公共服务范围及领域,增加环境保护、社会保障、医疗卫生、教育、科学技术以及农业的财政支出比重,进一步规范中央与地方政府的财政税收权利与义务,从而确保中国经济健康、稳定与可持续发展。     

An Empirical Assessment of Sovereign Country Risk in the Black Sea Region

Country risk is recognized as a key factor considered prior to undertaking cross-border economic activity such as an investment or a financial transaction. When the level of country risk is deemed low, commercial and other risks play a more important role in the assessment of the advisability to undertake a cross-border activity. In other cases, country risk levels are significant and may play a decisive role in the assessment of the cross-border activity. By its nature, country risk depends upon perceptions, and as a result both objective measurable factors and subjective issues need to be considered. This study investigates the factors that determine country risk as signalled by a commonly used proxy, the sovereign credit ratings assigned by the major rating agencies. To this end, panel data analysis has been used and applied to three heterogeneous country sub-groups, the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) countries, the EU-15, and the Central Europe and Baltic countries, for the period 2004–2013. The results generated suggest that three sets of variables: gross domestic product per capita, debt metrics, and institutional factors, play an instrumental role in explaining country risk across all the sub-groups. However, the individual results for each sub-group provide evidence that sovereign rating agencies focus on particular economic facets of each, and hence, take into account idiosyncratic aspects, structural as well as regional. Therefore, the study also examines those indicators that matter most or have a ‘specific gravity’ in determining sovereign ratings in each country-group, with a particular focus on the BSEC countries.     

西部大开发战略政策实施效果实证研究——以新疆维吾尔自治区为例

西部大开发战略实施以来,学术界对其政策实施效果的评价观点不一。本文以新疆维吾尔自治区为例,通过建立考虑技术进步因素的生产函数及应用邹至庄断点检验得到新疆经济在2000年后加速发展的结论。以此,从一个侧面证明西部大开发战略对于西部地区经济发展收到了一定的成效。     

环境管制与工业生产率增长：东部地区的实证研究

本文运用曼奎斯特—卢恩伯格生产率指数,测度了2000-2007年东部工业在考虑SO2和不考虑SO2排放情况下的效率、生产率增长及其成份的增长率,并且估计出了环境管制给企业带来的成本。结果发现：上海和广东处于生产前沿;考虑SO2排放后,生产率增长率下降;天津的生产率增长、技术效率增长率和技术进步率都最高,北京环境污染管制的成本最高;FD I投入、国有企业比重、资本劳动比、废气治理投资和环境管制成本对生产率增长都有显著影响。     

工业能源消耗碳排放行业差异研究——以河南省为例

通过对1999—2010年河南省工业行业能源消耗碳排放行业差异的分析,发现工业直接碳排放量呈逐年增加趋势,并没有随着经济发展而实现碳排放的"脱钩";采矿业能源消耗的直接碳排放量逐渐增长,已成为工业直接碳排放量快速增加的重要驱动行业,制造业和电力—燃气—水的生产和供应业直接碳排放的速度有减缓的趋势;工业行业间直接碳排放存在明显差异性,可以划分为直接碳排放量和直接碳排放强度都较高的高碳行业、直接碳排放量较大和直接碳排放强度较低的中碳行业、直接碳排放量和直接碳排放强度都较小的低碳行业以及直接碳排放量较小、直接碳排放强度较高的碳排放关注行业4种类型,并且河南省具有专业化优势和比较优势的行业大多集中在高碳部门。利用投入产出模型,计算了工业分行业的间接碳排放,发现产业部门关联效应所引发的间接碳排放不容忽视,并且在一些行业中占有较高比重。针对工业内部碳排放的行业差异性,应有效协调工业化进程与节能减排的关系,针对行业特性来制定减排政策。     

Real Exchange Rate Variability: An Empirical Analysis of the Developing Countries Case

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential role of monetary and real factors in explaining real exchange rate variability in developing countries. For this purpose two indexes of real effective exchange rate variability that measure short-term and long-term variability were constructed for 30 countries. The results obtained, using a generalized least squares procedures on cross section data, indicate that real exchange rate variability has been affected both by real and monetary factors. In particular it was found that more unstable nominal exchange rate policies were reflected in higher real exchange rate instability in the short-run; more unstable domestic credit policies resulted in higher short-term real exchange rate variability; and more unstable external terms of trade also affected positively the degree of real exchange rate instability. [420]     

An examination of business cycle features in UK Sectoral Output

This article examines business cycle features of UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) sectors with regard to trends, cycles and growth. The empirical study adopts the Kalman filter to decompose these GDP sectors into trend and cycle components. The general model of this study encompasses a number of alternative specifications about trend growth, therefore accommodating diverse views on growth. There is reasonable support in the results for a mean-reverting stochastic growth model for the UK economy. The characteristics in trends and cycles of UK GDP sectors are discussed, focusing on their similarities and differences around business cycles.     

科技进步与民生发展互动关系的实证研究——以新疆为例

科技进步应注重民生服务导向。通过构建衡量新疆科技进步水平和民生发展水平的指标体系,采用因子分析法,分别对衡量科技进步水平与民生发展水平的变量进行了数据浓缩,并通过协整分析、误差修正模型以及格兰杰(Granger)因果检验,分析了1996-2008年新疆科技进步与民生发展之间的互动关系。研究发现,科技进步与民生发展之间具有长期的协整关系;科技进步是民生发展的格兰杰成因,反之,民生发展不是科技进步的格兰杰成因。以上结果表明,新疆科技进步对民生发展具有明显的促进作用,但新疆民生发展对科技进步不具有显著促进作用。因此,为促进民生发展,新疆应当制定相应的措施,推动民生科技发展。     

区域物流环境评价指标体系及其实证研究

本文从区域物流和区域物流系统理论入手，重点阐述区域物流体系的构成和评价指标；采用因子分析法，分析了全国具有代表性的12个城市的区域物流环境条件，并据此提出中西部地区发展区域物流的战略方向。     

Labour Market Regulations and the Sectoral Reallocation of Workers: The Case of Trade Reforms

In this paper I highlight the importance of incorporating the institutional features of local labour markets into the analysis of trade reforms. A trade reform is often deemed beneficial because the elimination of trade barriers allows labour to reallocate towards those sectors in the economy in which the country has a comparative advantage. The amount and speed of the reallocation, however, and the post-reform behaviour of output, productivity and welfare, will depend on how regulated the labour market is. First, I document that high firing costs slow down the intersectoral reallocation of labour after a trade reform. Second, in order to isolate the effect of firing costs on labour reallocation, output and welfare after a trade reform, I build a dynamic general equilibrium model. I find that if a country does not liberalize its labour market at the outset of its trade reform, the intersectoral reallocation of workers will be 30% slower, and as much as 30% of the gains in real output and labour productivity in the years following the trade reform will be lost. From a policy standpoint, the message is that while trade reforms are desirable, they need to be complemented by labour market reforms in order to be fully successful.     

新中国60年:一个村域(泰西)工农业互动发展的典型案例

江苏省太仓市泰西村是我国民族工业发祥地之一。新中国60年,特别是在改革开放新时期,泰西村域的工业化和现代农业插上了腾飞的翅膀。2008年,村域已拥有纺织、电子、五金等大小企业45家,80%的劳动力转移到以工业为主的非农产业就业。但在这样一个工业化的村域,现代农业仍加速发展,显现出农耕文明与工业文明同存共荣的和谐局面。该文试图通过总结一个村域工业化和现代农业互动发展的典型案例,折射新中国60年农村工业化和农业现代化的历史性成就,并尝试把工农业关系及其协调发展研究下沉到村域层面,探讨村域经济转型过程中的工业化、农业现代化以及村域工农业互动发展的关系和规律。     

我国证券市场价格与货币供给量互动关系的研究

文章使用协整检验和因果关系检验的方法研究了中国证券市场价格和货币供应量的关系,以期研究我国货币市场和资本市场直接的相互关系,检验货币供应量这一中间目标在我国中央银行调控证券市场过程中的适用性.实证结果显示我国证券市场价格和M0、M2之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系.证券市场价格可以用货币供应量M0和M2来解释,而证券市场价格变化不是引起货币供应量变化的原因.中央银行可以利用货币供应量和证券市场价格存在的长期稳定的关系,把货币供应量作为调控证券市场的中间目标,灵活调控证券市场.