Rural-to-urban migration, human capital, and agglomeration

A new general-equilibrium model that links together rural-to-urban migration, the externality effect of the average level of human capital, and agglomeration economies shows that in developing countries, unrestricted rural-to-urban migration reduces the average income of both rural and urban dwellers in equilibrium. Various measures aimed at curtailing rural-to-urban migration by unskilled workers can lead to a Pareto improvement for both the urban and rural dwellers. In addition, the government can raise social welfare by reducing the migration of skilled workers to the city. Moreover, without a restriction on rural-to-urban migration, a government's efforts to increase educational expenditure and thereby the number of skilled workers may not increase wage rates in the rural or urban areas.     

Migration,self‐selection and income distributions

Self‐selection in rural–urban migration is examined using three datasets from rural and urban China in 2002. We construct a migrant sample including both migrants who converted their hukou status from rural to urban (permanent migrants) and those who did not (temporary migrants). We find a strong positive selection for permanent migrants, but the selection for temporary migrants is ambiguous. We reach these conclusions by comparing migrants' counterfactual wage densities, assuming they are paid as rural local workers, to actual wage densities of rural local workers. Our results imply that permanent migration has negative effects on rural human capital accumulation and income levels.     

农民工市民化对扩大内需和经济增长的影响

本文分析我国现行城市化模式制约经济增长的作用机制和渠道,建立区分农村居民、农民工和城市居民三类居民的理论框架,证明推动农民工市民化会通过缩小居民收入差距、提高城市规模和增加人力资本积累等渠道,推动我国经济在更高水平上实现均衡增长。在此基础上用CGE模型模拟了这些作用机制及影响,结果显示:每年多市民化1000万人口(700万农民工加上其抚养人口)可使经济增长速度提高约1个百分点;而且农民工市民化将促进居民消费和固定资产投资增长,降低经济增长对出口的依赖程度;可以提高服务业比重,优化经济结构,因此加快农民工市民化步伐是促进我国发展方式转变的重要途径。     

农村劳动力流动与城乡收入差距:基于模型的分析

发展理论认为,劳动力转移是缩小城乡收入差距的一种重要机制,但我国却出现了劳动力流动规模不断扩大和城乡收入差距不断扩大并存的现象。文章在认真研究中国转型时期背景和国情的基础上,建立符合我国现实的农村劳动力流动模型,发现由于转移劳动力只能得到其创造财富的较小部分,因而仅有就业转换的农村劳动力转移不仅不能缩小,反而会扩大城乡收入差距。为此,应通过改革城乡二元体制,建立城乡统一的劳动力市场;加大对农村人力资本投资的力度;动员和引导社会资源向农村地区投资等多种措施缩小城乡收入差距。     

How migration restrictions limit agglomeration and productivity in China

China strongly restricts rural–urban migration, resulting in a well acknowledged surplus of labor in agriculture. But migration is also restricted within sectors. This paper argues that these intra-sector restrictions lead to insufficient agglomeration of economic activity in both the rural industrial and urban sectors, with resulting first order losses in GDP. For urban areas the paper estimates a city productivity relationship, based on city GDP numbers. The effects of access, educational attainment, FDI, and public infrastructure on productivity are estimated. Given these, worker productivity is shown to be an inverted U-shape function of city employment, with the peak point shifting out as industrial composition moves from manufacturing to services, as predicted by urban theory. As far as we know this is the first paper to actually estimate the relationship between output per worker and city scale for any country. The majority of Chinese cities are shown to be potentially undersized—below the lower bound on the 95% confidence interval about the size where their output per worker peaks. The paper calculates the large gains from increased agglomeration in both the rural industrial and urban sectors.     

环境规制对城镇二元劳动力就业的影响*——基于劳动力市场分割视角

城镇劳动力市场分割决定了环境规制对二元劳动力就业影响存在差异性。基于环境规制对城镇二元劳动力就业影响理论分析,本文首先利用1998—2014年30省份面板数据实证分析了环境规制对城镇二元劳动力就业影响的差异性,进一步采用面板门限模型,考察了环境规制对城镇农民工就业影响的劳动力市场分割门槛效应。研究发现：（1）环境规制对城镇农民工就业负面冲击大于对城镇本地劳动力就业冲击;（2）环境规制对农民工城镇就业存在显著的劳动力市场分割门槛效应,当劳动力市场分割程度高于2002时,环境规制对农民工城镇就业抑制效应为-0116;当劳动力市场分割介于1199到2002之间时,抑制效应较大程度下降,为-0042;而当劳动力市场分割程度小于1199时,抑制效应转变为正向促进效应,为0106。未来应继续深化户籍制度改革,打破劳动力市场分割,加强技能培训,提高人力资本积累,降低环境规制对农民工城镇就业抑制效应,进一步提高城镇化水平,有效发挥城镇化经济增长效应。     

农村人力资本投资及外溢与城乡差距实证研究

文章以人力资本溢出效应城乡两区域模型为基础,采用协整检验和误差修正模型,对中国农村人力资本投资及外溢与城乡差距的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,缩小中国城乡差距,必须加大对农村的人力资本投资。同时,要加强政府对农村的基础设施投资,为农村人力资本作用的充分发挥创造条件。     

中国劳资关系的城乡户籍差异

本文利用最近的企业和农民工调查数据探讨了劳资关系城乡户籍差异问题。城乡工人在劳资关系各方面的巨大差异源于两个方面 :一是人力资本水平差异和就业企业的差异 ;二是农民工受到的户籍歧视。研究结果发现 ,前者解释了两类工人劳资关系差异的 70 %— 80 % ,说明人力资本和企业状况是决定工人待遇的主要因素 ;后者解释了两类工人劳资关系差异的 2 0 %— 3 0 % ,户籍歧视所造成的差距同样是不容忽视的。除劳动合同方面外 ,农民工在工资、养老保险、医疗保险、失业保险以及工会参与等方面均遭到户籍歧视。研究结果暗示仅仅关注工资收入的城乡歧视是不够的 ,同时也为更全面的劳动力市场校正政策提供了经验支持     

农村人力资本外溢与中国城乡居民收入差距关系的实证分析

笔者采用协整检验和误差修正模型,考察了中国农村人力资本外溢对城乡居民收入差距的影响。研究表明,农村人力资本的大规模外溢引起了城乡居民收入差距的扩大,而城乡居民收入差距的扩大又会导致农村人力资本的进一步外溢;由于农村人力资本外溢,农村劳动力转移并不是缩小城乡收入差距的充分条件。要缩小城乡收入差距,必须采取有效措施,为农村人力资本作用的充分发挥创造条件。     

Part‐Peasants: Incomplete Rural–Urban Labour Migration in China

The institutional settings in China, including the land allocation system and the household registration system, lead to a rural–urban labour migration pattern that differs from that in other countries. Individual peasants' labour is often split (typically over different times of the year) into two or more parts as a result of institutional factors. Individuals work both as peasants on the land and as temporary migrant workers in urban areas (or in rural non‐agricultural sectors). We examine this issue using province‐level panel data. The present study provides a new interpretation of the phenomenon of labour shortages in coastal cities and rising rural migrant wages in China in recent years, and discusses whether the Lewisian turning point has been reached. Under part migration, the rural labour supply to urban areas is smaller than would be the case with full migration of workers to urban areas, so that the Lewisian turning point occurs earlier. This finding has important policy implications for China's future development.     

人口老龄化对中国劳动力供给的影响

本文描述了我国劳动力供给的总体数量以及变化趋势,并从劳动参与率、城乡结构、人力资本三方面进行考察,探讨人口老龄化对于劳动力供给的影响。我国劳动参与率还存在较大增长空间,将会是未来劳动力供给的重要增长点;农村剩余劳动力存量仍看似充足,但其老龄化情况较严重,难以维持当前农民工向城市转移的速度;另外我国年轻劳动力的教育程度和人力资本已有显著提升。因此虽然人口老龄化已经对我国劳动力供给产生了一定负面影响,但由于人口和劳动力的变化是一个长期过程,并不会给经济发展带来突发的、灾难性的冲击。     

产业结构调整的收入分配效应研究--基于1998-2012年中国省际面板数据模型的分析

产业结构调整作为政府实现宏观发展战略目标的重要调控手段,具有显著的收入分配效应。构建产业结构调整对城乡收入差距影响机理的分析框架,利用中国30个省份1998-2012年的面板数据,运用联立方程模型和内生分布滞后模型,研究产业结构调整的收入分配效应,结果发现：由于产业结构调整与人力资本结构负相关,在即期会强化农村居民在就业市场中的弱势地位,扩大城乡收入差距;在长期,城乡居民根据产业结构调整重塑就业预期,通过调整人力资本投资结构、提升人力资本水平实现职业转换,第5年以后将出现农村居民收入增幅高于城镇居民的格局,形成乡城收入赶超效应,产生缩小城乡收入差距的正面效应。     

中国城乡二元经济结构转化的影响 因素分解：1981-2009年

本文在理论层面对“刘易斯-费景汉-拉尼斯模型”进行了拓展，指出二元经济结构集中表现为城乡居民存在收入差距，这种差距与城乡两部门的劳动力-人口的转化、经济产出-居民收入的转化以及劳动力-经济产出的转化紧密相关。二元经济结构可被分解为四种因素：收入产出比差距、资本产出比差距、资本劳动比差距和劳动参与率差距。基于这种因素分解法，实证分析得出：1981-2009年，在我国的二元经济结构中，收入产出比差距、资本产出比差距、资本劳动比差距和劳动参与率差距的年均贡献度分别为-6876%，-1373%，16435%和1814%，而劳动生产率差距的年均贡献度为15062%。我国二元经济结构转化的主要影响因素是劳动生产率差距（尤其是资本劳动比差距）和劳动参与率差距，这源于农村劳动力非农化流转伴随着农村资本形成相对迟缓以及农村人口迁移相对滞后。基于这些结论可以给出新时期我国推进二元经济结构转化的若干政策建议。     

Differential Migration Prospects,Skill Formation,and Welfare

This paper develops a one sector, two‐input model with endogenous human capital formation. The two inputs are two types of skilled labor: “engineering,” which exerts a positive externality on total factor productivity, and “law,” which does not. The paper shows that a marginal prospect of migration by engineers increases human capital accumulation of both types of workers (engineers and lawyers), and also the number of engineers who remain in the country. These two effects are socially desirable, since they move the economy from the (inefficient) free‐market equilibrium towards the social optimum. The paper also shows that if the externality effect of engineering is sufficiently powerful, everyone will be better off as a consequence of the said prospect of migration, including the engineers who lose the migration “lottery,” and even the individuals who practice law.     

APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY AND INCOME DIFFERENCES

This article studies the relative productivity of skilled to unskilled workers across countries. Relative productivities are broken down into the human capital embodied in skilled workers and relative physical productivities (reflecting production techniques). I find that skilled workers from poorer countries embody less human capital and are also relatively less physically productive. Furthermore, results show that production techniques are inappropriate for most low‐income countries, and these countries experience large increases in GDP per capita by increasing the relative physical productivity of skilled to unskilled workers. This suggests that there are significant barriers to the adoption of skill‐complementary technologies.     

人口迁移流动对城镇区域劳动力市场的影响

人口迁移流动对于城镇劳动力供给和区域劳动力市场一体化均有显著影响。农村迁移劳动力与城镇居民就业存在一定的替代关系,但对城镇劳动力就业冲击不大。城-城迁移人口对迁入地人口的失业率和劳动参与率均无明显影响。我国劳动力市场从计划经济时期的高度一体化逐步演变为省际之间的分割,再次走向大经济区之间的分割和区内的融合。这种融合是借助农民工的迁移流动来实现的,因而在本质上依旧是分割的。     

Does local social capital deter labour migration? Evidence from rural China

This article empirically investigates the effect of local social capital on job-related migration in rural China. A household’s social ties in the region of origin, which we refer to as local social capital, may deter migration, because local social capital is location specific and an individual cannot benefit from it if s/he migrates. In view of Chinese gift-giving culture, we use household expenses on wedding gifts for family members outside household, relatives and friends as a proxy for local social networks. Based on the data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we find that in rural China local social networks have a significantly negative effect on migration. The IV results suggest that a 10% increase in wedding gifts expenses results in roughly a 1.1 percentage points decrease in migration probability.     

人力资本与农村生育率间的互馈效应研究

我国农村生育率下降是政策强制下的被动过程,而通过加快农村人力资本积累可以促进农村生育率"自愿性"下降,加快农村经济发展。文章用理论与实证方法分析验证了人力资本与农村生育率间的互馈效应,结果表明,农村人力资本积累对农村生育率具有较强的抑制效应,而农村生育率下降可以带来农村人力资本积累量的增加,助推农村经济快速增长。     

Search, migration, and urban land use: The case of transportation policies

We develop a search-matching model with rural-urban migration and an explicit land market. Wages, job creation, urban housing prices are endogenous and we characterize the steady-state equilibrium. We then consider three different policies: a transportation policy that improves the public transport system in the city, an entry-cost policy that encourages investment in the city and a restricting-migration policy that imposes some costs on migrants. We show that all these policies can increase urban employment but the transportation policy has much more drastic effects. This is because a decrease in commuting costs has both a direct positive effect on land rents, which discourages migrants to move to the city, and a direct negative effect on urban wages, which reduces job creation and thus migration. When these two effects are combined with search frictions, the interactions between the land and the labor markets have amplifying positive effects on urban employment. Thus, improving the transport infrastructure in cities can increase urban employment despite the induced migration from rural areas.     

人力资本投入差异与城乡居民收入差距——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

文章基于历年《中国统计年鉴》、《中国人口和就业统计年鉴》和《中国劳动统计年鉴》中的数据,对我国城乡居民收入差距和人力资本投入差异进行分析发现,改革开放以来,我国城乡居民收入差距不断扩大,且近年来仍没有明显下降的趋势,而近十年来我国城乡居民人力资本投入差异已得到很大程度的改观,利用2001-2011年省级面板数据实证分析发现,无论在全国范围内还是在区域范围内,我国城乡居民收入差距均没有随着城乡居民人力资本投入差异的缩小而降低,主要是由教育资源失衡、学历层次不同、劳动力市场扭曲及歧视性择业等因素造成的。因此,在缩小我国城乡居民的人力资本投入差异的同时,要采取相应的措施,如加大对农村地区的教育投入、增加接受高等教育的农村居民比重、统一劳动力市场、引导居民树立正确就业观等,消除其他因素的制约,才能达到缩小城乡居民收入差距的目的。