GLOBAL AND DISAGGREGATED MEASURES OF EARNINGS MOBILITY: EVIDENCE FROM FIVE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

This paper offers the first application of the local approximation method pioneered by Schluter and Trede (2003) for the Shorrocks mobility indices across the earnings distribution for a range of European Countries covering the main European social models: Denmark, Germany, Spain, the UK and Italy in the pre‐accession EU (1994‐2001). This insightful approach allows us to offer a global and disaggregate analysis of mobility as proportionate change in inequality and hence provide the reader with a full set of information to make his/her own judgment about the extent of mobility and country ranking. Specifically, we investigate the degree to which mobility is driven by low or high earners and how this picture changes across three different earnings measures: full‐time full‐year working, adding part‐time working and then part‐year working. Our results draw out some general key facts. First of all the vast bulk of the measured mobility occurs in the tails especially the lower tail with at least half of the index driven by mobility in the bottom earning quintile. Second, in the top 20 percent of the distribution there are few movements of earnings that effect the level of permanent inequality except in Denmark. Third, no country has a clear dominance for mobility across the full earnings distribution but Denmark differs from the other countries with clearly greater mobility in the middle and at the top. Finally, we find that with the exception of Denmark and Italy, mobility does not lead to clear convergence to the mean but rather to points around 0.7‐0.8 and 1.5 to 2 times the mean.     

Parental Wealth and the Black–White Mobility Gap in the U.S.

Utilizing longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), this paper examines the relationship between parental wealth and intergenerational income mobility for black and white families. I find that total parental wealth is positively associated with upward mobility for low‐income white families, but is not associated with reduced likelihood of downward mobility for white families from the top half of the income distribution. Conversely, I find that total parental wealth does not have the same positive association for low‐income black families, while home ownership may have negative associations with the likelihood of upward mobility for these families. However, for black families from the top half of the income distribution, home equity is associated with a decreased likelihood of downward mobility, suggesting a heterogeneous relationship between home ownership and mobility for black families.     

A New Look at Intergenerational Mobility in Germany Compared to the U.S

Motivated by contradictory evidence on intergenerational mobility in Germany, I present a cross‐country comparison of Germany and the U.S., reassessing the question of whether intergenerational mobility is higher in Germany than in the U.S. I can reproduce the standard result from the literature, which states that the German intergenerational elasticity estimates are lower than those for the U.S. However, based on highly comparable data, even a reasonable degree of variation in the sampling rules leads to similar estimates in both countries. I find no evidence for non‐linearities along the fathers' earnings distribution. In contrast, the analysis shows that mobility is higher for the sons at the lowest quartile of the sons' earnings distribution in both countries. In Germany this result is mainly driven by a high downward mobility of sons with fathers in the upper middle part of the earnings distribution. The corresponding pattern is clearly less pronounced in the U.S.     

Intergenerational Earnings Mobility Revisited: Estimates Based on Lifetime Earnings*

Using Norwegian intergenerational data, which include a substantial part of the life‐cycle earnings for children and almost the entire life‐cycle earnings for their fathers, we present new estimates of intergenerational mobility. Extending the length of fathers’ earnings window from 5 to 25 years increases estimated elasticities. Increasing the age at which fathers’ earnings are observed has the opposite effect. Biases in the estimated elasticities are related to both transitory earnings variation and life‐cycle measurement error; the former appear to be more important than the latter. Estimation bias stemming from persistence in transitory innovations plays only a minor role. Our findings indicate that intergenerational earnings mobility in Norway might have been strongly overstated in many earlier studies with shorter earnings histories. Some of our new estimates are twice as large as earlier estimates.     

CAN HOUSEHOLDS AND WELFARE STATES MITIGATE RISING EARNINGS INSTABILITY?

We compare the evolution of earnings instability in Germany and the United Kingdom, two countries which stand for different types of welfare states. Deploying data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel (SOEP) and the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), we estimate permanent and transitory variances of male income over the period 1984–2009 and 1991–2006, respectively. Studies in this literature generally use individual labor earnings. To uncover the role of welfare state and households in smoothening earnings shocks, we compute different income concepts ranging from gross earnings to net equivalent household income. We find evidence that the overall inequality of earnings in Germany and the United Kingdom has been rising throughout the period due to both higher permanent earnings inequality and higher earnings volatility. However, taking institutions of the welfare state and risk‐sharing households into account, we find that the volatility of net household income has remained fairly stable. Furthermore, redistribution and risk insurance provided by the welfare state is more pronounced in Germany than in the United Kingdom.     

Two‐sample nonparametric estimation of intergenerational income mobility in the United States and Sweden

We estimate intergenerational income mobility in the US and Sweden, using a new nonparametric approach. The approach addresses several empirical issues raised in the literature and applies when other estimators are infeasible. We argue that previous estimates of income mobility conceal the heterogeneous nature of the transmission mechanism by keeping mobility constant across families. The striking differences we find between mobility patterns across family backgrounds, captured by father's education, lead us to question the conventional result that intergenerational transmission of earnings is weaker in Sweden than in the United States, for important parts of the population.     

INTERGENERATIONAL INCOME MOBILITY IN SWEDEN: WHAT DO TAX‐DATA SHOW?

The aim of this paper is to investigate intergenerational income mobility in Sweden by means of a representative sample drawn from tax-data files. Longitudinal data on actual parent-child pairs spanning 1978–92 are employed. Regression and correlation coefficients are analyzed and transition matrices calculated in order to investigate income mobility over generations. The results achieved show high intergenerational income mobility in Sweden between fathers and sons in comparison to estimations performed in most other countries and more especially compared to the U.S. This indicates that Sweden does not only have lower cross-sectional income inequality, but also higher intergenerational income mobility than those countries. The mother's earnings influence children's earnings less than the father's. However, the mother's earnings correlate more strongly with a daughter's earnings than they do with that of a son. The major indication of immobility across generations is found in the upper income deciles.     

The visible minority earnings gap across generations of Canadians

Abstract To what extent the earnings gaps facing Canada’s visible minorities reflect discrimination is a question of tremendous policy interest. This paper argues that failing to account for the limited Canadian ancestry of visible minorities overestimates discrimination if immigrant assimilation is an intergenerational process. Using the 2001 and 2006 Canadian Censuses, weekly earnings, conditional on a rich set of worker and job characteristics, are compared with child immigrant, second‐, and third‐and‐higher‐generation Canadian men. The results reveal a tendency for earnings to increase across subsequent generations of visible minority, but not white, men. Though the pattern is strongest between the first and second generation, for black men it is also evident between the Canadian born with and without a Canadian‐born parent. Despite this progress, for most visible minority groups earnings gaps are identified even among third‐and‐higher‐generation Canadians.     

Intergenerational Mobility in the United States and Great Britain: A Comparative Study of Parent–Child Pathways

We build on cross‐national research to examine the relationships underlying estimates of relative intergenerational mobility in the United States and Great Britain using harmonized longitudinal data and focusing on men. We examine several pathways by which parental status is related to offspring status, including education, labor market attachment, occupation, marital status, and health, and perform several sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of our results. We decompose differences between the two nations into that part attributable to the strength of the relationship between parental income and the child's characteristics and the labor market return to those child characteristics. We find that the relationships underlying these intergenerational linkages differ in systematic ways between the two nations. In the United States, primarily because of the higher returns to education and skills, the pathway through offspring education is relatively more important than it is in Great Britain; by contrast, in Great Britain the occupation pathway forms the primary channel of intergenerational persistence.     

The risk and cost of job loss in Canada, 1978–2008

We assess the risk and cost of worker displacement in Canada over the last three decades. We show that neither the risk of job loss nor the short‐term earnings losses of displaced workers trended upwards during that period. However, short‐term earnings losses of workers displaced from manufacturing increased in recent years, as a smaller proportion found a post‐displacement job in that sector. In line with Stevens ( 1997 ) and Couch and Placzek ( 2010 ), we find that high‐seniority workers and individuals with stable labour market attachment experienced, five years after displacement, earnings losses that ranged between 10% and 18%.     

Why do immigrant workers in Australia perform better than those in Canada? Is it the immigrants or their labour markets?

Research comparing the labour market performance of recent cohorts of immigrants to Australia and Canada points to superior employment and earnings outcomes in Australia. Examining Australian and Canadian Census data between 1986 and 2006, we find that this performance advantage is not driven by differences in broader labour market conditions affecting all new labour market entrants. Rather, the results from comparing immigrants from a common source country – either the U.K., India, or China – suggest that Australian immigrants perform better, particularly in average earnings, primarily because of a different source country distribution. Moreover, the recent tightening of Australian selection policy, most notably its use of mandatory pre‐migration English‐language testing, appears to be having an effect, primarily by further shifting the source country distribution of immigrants away from non‐English‐speaking source countries, rather than in identifying higher‐quality migrants within source countries.     

The Sins of the Fathers: Intergenerational Income Mobility in China

This paper aims to obtain an accurate estimate of China's intergenerational income mobility and to present evidence on its distributional pattern. Using panel data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) over the period 1989–2009, I find that China is less mobile than most developed countries. Then, I employ five different approaches to investigate the distributional pattern of China's intergenerational mobility across income levels. The results suggest that poor families have relatively high mobility, indicating opportunities for the poor children to escape poverty. Finally, I show that while wealthy fathers are likely to pass on their favorable economic status to their sons, rich sons come from a very wide range of family economic backgrounds.     

Occupations and the evolution of gender differences in intergenerational socioeconomic mobility

This paper analyzes intergenerational mobility experiences of daughters and sons with respect to their fathers’ occupational status and documents changes in gender differences over time. While women have been in occupations with lower overall earnings potential, men are more likely to be in occupations characterized by long hours and low returns. The mobility gap in earnings has been closing and a mobility advantage with respect to education has been emerging.     

Post‐socialist transition and intergenerational educational mobility in Kyrgyzstan

We investigate long‐term trends in intergenerational educational mobility in a lower middle‐income transition economy. We draw on evidence from Kyrgyzstan using data from three household surveys collected in 1993, 1998 and 2011. We find that Kyrgyzstan, like Eastern European middle‐income transition economies, maintained high educational mobility, comparable to levels during the Soviet era. However, we find that the younger cohorts, exposed to the transition during their school years, experienced a rapid decline in educational mobility. We also document that gender differences in schooling and educational mobility, found among older‐aged individuals, disappeared in the younger cohorts.     

Compensating Wage Differentials for Schooling Risk in Denmark*

In this paper we analyse the association between wage differentials and risk using detailed information on length and type of education as seen in Danish administrative registers. Our contribution to the literature is that we distinguish between transitory (time‐series) and permanent (cross‐sectional) income shocks, and estimate the compensation for both sorts of risk. We find that wage risk in a given education cell is associated with higher wages, while skewness is associated with lower wages. As a robustness check, we see that ad hoc risk measures based on earnings‐mobility indicators confirm these findings.     

劳动力自由迁移为何如此重要?——基于代际收入流动的视角

未考虑人口迁移影响的代际收入弹性估计存在偏误。本文将人口迁移与区域特性纳入代际收入弹性估计方程,并运用迁移概率作为局部工具变量进行估计,发现迁移者的代际收入弹性不到未迁移者的一半。而当前我国代际收入流动的主要问题在于部分人群面临"代际低收入传承陷阱",他们可以通过迁移从而增加就业机会等方式摆脱这一陷阱,这至少可以使一代人免受代际低收入传承的困扰。进一步分析迁移对代际收入传递路径的影响,结果表明教育在可识别的代际收入传递路径中贡献最大,而迁移强化了这一影响。鉴于人口迁移对代际收入流动的重要影响,政府部门有必要进一步采取措施降低劳动力自由迁移的障碍,并合理分配教育资源,以增进社会公平程度。     

The changing role of education in the distribution of earnings and household income

This article draws on income surveys from the last two decades to report on trends in earnings disparities and household income inequality in the Czech Republic. Education has been the main axis of change in this area, having acquired a much greater role in the entire process of collecting and distributing income. First, an increasing influence of education is evident in the personal earnings of employees, returns to education having doubled. Second, in couples, education has an important impact on both women’s employment and their earnings. Third, the importance of marital partners’ education levels on household income grew even more than its effect on earnings.     

Economic inequality in Spain: the european community household panel dataset

This article uses data from the 1998 European Community Household Panel to study economic inequality in Spain. It reports data on the Spanish distributions of income, labor income, and capital income, and on related features of inequality, such as age, employment status, educational attainment, and marital status. It also reports data on the income mobility of Spanish households, and data on income inequality in other European countries and in the US. We find that income, earnings, and, especially, capital income are very unequally distributed in Spain and that economic inequality in Spain is well above the European average.     

Human Capital, Heterogeneity and Estimated Degrees of Intergenerational Mobility

We study the parental investment model of intergenerational mobility, where heterogeneity in 'innate' earnings ability and parents' altruism rate is explicitly modelled. We show that heterogeneity increases the difficulty of detecting the existence of borrowing constrained families. Conversely, the presence of heterogeneity means that economic and linear statistical models of inheritance generate similar intergenerational data on consumption and earnings. We also suggest that nay cross-country differences in intergenerational earnings mobility are more readily interpreted according to the heterogeneity of inherited ability, rather than optimal family responses to country-specific institutions for accumulating human capital.     

Accounting for United States Household Income Inequality Trends: The Changing Importance of Household Structure and Male and Female Labor Earnings Inequality

Using a shift‐share analysis on March CPS data, this paper estimates the degree to which changes in labor earnings, employment, and marriage patterns account for household income inequality growth in the United States since 1979. The factors contributing to the rapid rise in income inequality in the 1980s differ substantially from those contributing to its slower increase since that time. Unlike findings for the 1980s when changes in the correlation of spouses' earnings accounted for income inequality growth, this factor is no longer a major contributor toward its continued increase. Additionally, the 2000s business cycle is the first full business cycle in at least 30 years where changes in earnings of male household heads accounted for declines in income inequality. Instead, the continued growth in income inequality in the 2000s was accounted for primarily by increases in female earnings inequality and declines in both male and female employment.