人均收入、产业结构与环境质量——基于EKC曲线的分析

中国经济发展与生态环境之间的两难冲突已经日益受到人们的关注,对于一个经济处于起飞阶段的国家,一方面由于对自然资源的不合理利用、工业污染物排放的不断增加,环境质量不断下降;另一方面资源的可耗竭性、环境恶化反过来也限制了经济的长期持续增长.通过对1991以来中国环境污染及经济发展的时间序列数据进行分析,可以发现:第一,中国的环境倒"U"型曲线下降阶段并未出现;第二,产业结构对环境质量有显著的影响.工业占GDP比重越高,环境污染越严重.     

信贷、投资与人均收入的非一致性变动--对西北地区货币传导的一种分析框架

一、西北地区信贷投放相对 萎缩的一般机理 1997年以来,中央银行采取了一系列货币政策措施,银根松动的迹象非常明显。然而,西北地区的存款增长率基本上是一路下滑(2000年略有上升),与全国相比,西北地区存款增长率大部分年份低于全国,与全国存款总额的相对差异由1996年的18.79上升到2002年的19.26,储蓄存款相对差异虽略有上升,却一直小于存款总额的相对差异值。     

库兹涅茨人均收入决定论质疑--兼论我国产业结构升级的政策取向

库兹涅茨的人均收入决定论认为,经济的增长是产业结构转变的原因。作者根据格兰杰(Granger)因果关系检验理论利用我国的时间序列数据对这一结论进行了证伪分析,结果表明,改革开放以来我国产业结构的高级化变迁并不是由经济的增长带来的,相反,产业结构的调整却是我国长期以来经济高速增长的原因。 为此,我国必须大力发展高新技术产业,促进产业结构的优比与升级。     

Constructing Bounds on Per Capita Income Differentials across Countries

The results of purchasing power parity (PPP)-based comparisons of income across countries can be quite sensitive to the choice of index number formula. Tighter bounds on per capita income differentials can be constructed either by assuming homothetic preferences, or by estimating a demand system. Both approaches are used to construct bounds on per capita income differentials across the OECD countries. The paper concludes by discussing the strengths and weaknesses of each approach.
JEL Classification C 43; F 31; O 47     

我国农村居民人均支农支出与人均纯收入的实证分析

财政支农是国家对农业投入的一个重要渠道,一直以来,我国不断加大了财政支农的力度,旨在增加农民收入,缩小城乡差距,提高农业综合生产能力,加快农村经济又好又快发展.文章通过对1990-2010年农村居民的人均财政支农支出和人均纯收入数据进行实证分析得出:国家财政支农支出对农民收入增长有重大影响,我国应继续加大财政支农支出、优化财政支农支出结构从而促进农民收入增加.     

Micro Convergence and Macro Convergence: Factor Price Equalization and Per Capita Income

Factor price equalization implies the equality of prices of the same productive factors across countries owing to free trade. The present paper examines the relationship between factor price equalization and the equality of per capita (per worker) incomes in the contexts of the static Heckscher–Ohlin trade model and the dynamic two-sector neoclassical growth model. Factor price equalization is shown to be neither necessary nor sufficient for equality of per capita incomes across trading countries.     

农村公路对农民人均纯收入促进作用的量化分析

国内外许多学者将农村公路形象的称为＂毛细血管＂,强调了农村公路作为农村基础设施在建设社会主义新农村和城乡一体化发展过程中的巨大作用。然而,目前为止,很少运用定量化的方法进行描述。通过试运用某市农民人均纯收入等相关数据建立了计量经济学模型,并运用此模型对农村公路关于农民人均纯收入的促进作用进行量化分析。     

Differences in GDP Per Capita and the Share of Intraindustry Trade: The Role of Vertically Differentiated Trade

This paper examines the relationship between per capita GDP differences and bilateral intraindustry trade shares. The relationship is negative in OLS regressions but positive in fixed-effect regressions, and evidence is presented suggesting this is due to the presence of vertically differentiated trade. The paper begins by distinguishing between vertically and horizontally differentiated trade, and then finds a positive and significant relationship between GDP per capita differences and the trade shares only in the regressions on the vertically differentiated trade shares. It is shown also that the extent to which income distributions overlap affects only the share of vertically differentiated trade.     

城乡收入差距、人均收入及失业率对犯罪率的影响——基于2003～2007年我国省级数据的面板分析

本文通过固定效应模型分析了收入差距、失业率、城乡绝对收入水平对刑事犯罪率的影响,并且对执法警力支出可能产生的内生性影响进行稳健性讨论.分析得出收入差距与犯罪率存在显著的正相关,而失业率对犯罪率的影响并不显著,且城乡绝对收入水平对犯罪率产生反向的影响.在减少收入分配不公的同时加强新农村建设,缩小城乡收入差距,完善社会福利制度和加强法制建设,有利于降低犯罪率,促进和谐社会发展.     

解读人均国内生产总值翻两番

党的十七大提出了到2020年人均国内生产总值比2000年翻两番的经济目标.这一目标对我国经济社会发展和全面建设小康社会提出了新的更高要求.从GDP与人均GDP入手,对改革开放以来各时期经济目标实施情况的纵向分析表明,在"分步走"战略的指引下,我国在各阶段都提前、超额完成了既定目标.与世界上其他国家的横向对比分析表明,虽然我国GDP总量处于世界前列,但人均GDP仍处于中低收入国家的行列,仍属于发展中国家,仍处于社会主义初级阶段.同时,经过测算,从2007年到2020年,我国国内生产总值年平均增长6.08%,即可实现2020年国内生产总值比2000年翻两番的目标.     

Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income Per Capita: A Predictive Density Approach*

The article proposes a technique, based on the predictive density of the data, conditional on the parameters of the model, to jointly tests for groups of unknown size in a panel and to estimate the parameters of each group. The procedure is applied to the problem of identifying convergence clubs in scaled income per capita data. The steady‐state distribution of European regional data clusters around four poles of attraction with different economic features. The distribution of income per capita of OECD countries has two poles of attraction and each group clearly identifiable economic characteristics. We share the uncommonness of being different. J. P. Roche     

Convergence in Per Capita Income Levels, Productivity Dynamics and Real Exchange Rates in the EU Acceding Countries

During a catch up process – such as the one that thecountries acceding to the EU are undergoing – there emergesa fundamental economic link between nominal and realvariables which surfaces in the dynamics of the realexchange rate (the ``Balassa–Samuelson effect'). Thisarticle analyzes some of the implications of this process forthe acceding countries addressing three main issues.First it focuses on the empirical measurement of convergencebetween acceding countries and EU-member states. Thenit analyzes the economic fundamentals of a catch up processarguing that for this process to be self-sustained, it must bebased on differential productivity growth whereby productivityin the acceding countries grows faster than that in the incumbents.Thirdly, an attempt is made to test empirically theBalassa–Samuelson effect in the EU acceding countries. Finally the article discusses some of the policy implications of thedichotomy ``real-cum-nominal convergence' on the way to EUand EMU accession.     

云南省城镇居民人均可支配收入实际增长可行性研究及建议

改革开放的深化,云南省城镇居民收入分配格局发生了很大的变化,个人收入日益多元化.可支配收入是衡量居民实际收入的重要尺度,因此,有必要对可支配收入的结构要素进行分析.同时收入差距分析、有利因素和制约性因素分析也是对云南省城镇居民人均可支配收入实际增长进行可行性研究的理论前提和重要支撑,最后在此基础上,提出一些相应的政策与建议.     

北京市人均GDP的时间序列分析及预测

人均GDP是具有重要经济意义的指标,它的增长具有一定的内在规律性,文章建立了北京市人均GDP的时间序列模型,分析研究了模型的稳定性和可外推性,预测了2005年～2010年北京市人均GDP的发展水平,说明北京市人均GDP具有一定的时间趋势。     

The Mystery of the Missing Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism

The absence of a formal international regulatory mechanism tofacilitate sovereign debt restructuring has long been recognizedas a most serious gap in the architecture of global finance.Why has it proven so difficult to create such a sovereign debtrestructuring mechanism (SDRM) at the international level? Politicaleconomists have devoted relatively little scholarly attentionto this question. This paper attempts to begin to fill thisgap in the literature by examining four failed initiatives tocreate a SDRM over the past century. In place of a realist orstructural Marxist account, the paper puts forward a more contingentexplanation for these failures that highlights three distinctpolitical problems that must be overcome in the constructionof a SDRM: (1) collective action problems on both the side ofsovereign debtors and that of private foreign creditors; (2)basic distributional conflicts embodied in any debt restructuringeffort; and (3) the uncertain behavior of the private creditors'home states.     

Nonlinearity and the Unit Root Hypothesis for African Per Capita Real GDP

Once described as an epic center of growth tragedy, African nations have lately achieved relatively rapid growth rates, which have raised hopes that the continent is finally on the path to economic convergence with other emerging economies. However, there is a need to establish whether stabilization policies for the purpose of enhancing the GDP are effective in African countries. One of the means of examining the effectiveness of these policies is through the investigation of the unit root properties of per capita GDP in the continent. This study aims to add to the existing papers on GDP in African countries by investigating the non-stationarity of per capita GDP in 52 African countries, while using a newly proposed nonlinear unit root test. The results suggest that per capita GDP follows the non-stationarity process in half of the entire sample.     

江苏与人均GDP3000美元左右国家比较研究

近年来,江苏进入了持续发展的快车道,根据目前的经济走势分析,预计2005年江苏人均GDP有可能达到3000美元。与人均GDP3000美元左右的国家相比,江苏在经济社会发展的许多方面还存在较大差距,需要采取有效措施,全面推进“两个率先”的建设进程。     

FDI、人均收入与环境效应

本文利用时间序列数据对FDI的环境效应进行了整体分析,利用省际面板数据对FDI、人均收入和环境污染进行了区域分析。结果表明:FDI对环境产生了负的规模效应、负的结构效应和正的技术效应,但FDI对区域间的环境污染程度则有不同表现——东部地区污染程度加重,中部和西部则相反。而且随着人均收入的提高,我国整体上环境污染程度趋于好转。对此本文提出了要提高引资质量和引资标准,调整FDI投向,加强环境管制,转变政府引资思路的政策建议。