TRADE,STRUCTURAL REFORM,AND INSTITUTIONS IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA

Sub‐Saharan African countries have traditionally lagged the rest of the developing world in terms of overall trade relative to gross domestic product. But, there is growing interest among these countries to initiate trade policies and improve quality of institutions as a way to promote trade and boost foreign direct investment. This article extends the gravity model of trade to include proxies for trade reform policy and institutional quality among the 15 countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for data spanning 1984–2006. Alternative methods of estimation based on ordinary least squares, Heckman two‐step procedure, and Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood produce predictions that are consistent with the standard gravity model. They further highlight the evidence of restrictive trade policies and weak institutions that contribute to the failure of ECOWAS countries to boost bilateral trade. (JEL F13, F15, O19, O55)     

STATE‐LEVEL CAPITAL AND INVESTMENT: UPDATES AND IMPLICATIONS

This paper presents state‐by‐state capital stock and gross investment estimates for 1990–2007. I follow the methodology of Garofalo and Yamarik (The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84, 2002, 316–23) and apportion the national capital stock to the individual states using one‐digit NAICS income data. I then test the soundness of the data by estimating a Cobb–Douglas production function and a Solow growth model using a variety of panel data estimators. Under both models, I obtain estimates of the output elasticity for capital that are plausible and close to the observed national income share of one‐third. (JEL O47, O51, R11)     

Does Capital Account Liberalization Discipline Budget Deficit?

The paper investigates whether free capital mobility leads a government to tighten its budget deficit for fear of being penalized from the international capital market. The author tests the hypothesis using three‐stage least squares (3SLS), which can control for the endogenous nature of capital account liberalization. Even the conservative measure shows that, if capital account liberalization were exogenously imposed, ceteris paribus, government budget deficit would be reduced by 2.275% of GDP. Furthermore, 3SLS results show that this disciplinary effect is stronger for countries under a fixed exchange rate regime or for countries with weak central bank independence. The disciplinary effect is also found to be stronger in more recent periods—the 1990s—during which capital market integration has been most prevalent.     

FAST FOOD PRICES AND ADULT BODY WEIGHT OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE BASED ON LONGITUDINAL QUANTILE REGRESSION MODELS

With a parallel increase in the consumption of food away from home, particularly fast food, and the obesity prevalence in the United States, evidence on the potential effectiveness of fiscal pricing policies to curb obesity is needed. We estimate changes in the dispersion of the entire conditional distribution of body mass index (BMI) associated with changes in fast food prices for adults using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 in cross‐sectional and longitudinal quantile regression models. We find that the ordinary least squares estimate for men underestimates the negative relationship of fast food prices with BMI at the 50th and upper quantiles in cross‐sectional models although the statistical significance disappears in the longitudinal individual fixed effects quantile regression. Among subpopulations, we find that a 10% increase in the price of fast food is associated with 0.9% and 0.7% lower BMI for low‐income women and women with any children, respectively, at the 90th quantile in a longitudinal individual fixed effects model. Our results imply that fiscal pricing policies such as fast food taxes might have a greater impact on the weight outcomes of low‐income women or women with children in the upper tail of the conditional BMI distribution (JEL I00, I19).     

Capital adjustment cost and inconsistency in income‐based dynamic panel models with fixed effects

After the seminal work of Nickell (1981), a vast literature demonstrates the inconsistency of ‘conditional convergence’ estimator in income‐based dynamic panel models with fixed effects when the time horizon (T) is short but the sample of countries (N) is large. Less attention is given to the economic root of inconsistency of the fixed effects estimator when T is also large. Using a variant of the Ramsey growth model with long‐run adjustment cost of capital, we demonstrate that the fixed effects estimator of such models could be inconsistent when T is large. This inconsistency arises because of the long‐run adjustment cost of capital which gives rise to a negative moving average coefficient in the error term. Income convergence will be thus overestimated. We theoretically characterize the order of this inconsistency. Our Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that the size of the bias is substantial and it is greater in economies with higher capital adjustment costs. We show that the use of instrumental variables that take into account the presence of the negative moving average term in the error will overcome this bias.     

COSTLY INTERMEDIATION AND THE POVERTY OF NATIONS*

This article has two goals: (i) to reduce the 7‐fold productivity differential required to explain the observed 33‐fold income difference between the richest and poorest countries of the world; and (ii) to explain cross‐country differences in the capital‐output ratio. To achieve the first goal we modify the production function of the standard neoclassical growth model to include public capital whose provision is subject to intermediation costs. For the second goal we distort private investment by introducing credit frictions. The model, quantified using cross‐country data, generates an income gap of 33 with productivity differences of only 3 under the measured variations in public and private capital. The required productivity gap declines even further, to 2.1, when we introduce a home‐production sector. On the second goal, however, credit frictions do a poor job of explaining cross‐country variations in the capital‐output ratio.     

要素生产率和要素配置作用下的中国城乡收入差距

根据城乡生产函数差异的特征事实构建了城乡收入差距模型,利用我国各省1997—2009年数据研究城乡劳动力比、固定资产比、人力资本比、农业中间品投入、工业化和第三产业规模对城乡收入差距的影响。结果显示,我国城乡要素生产率与城乡要素配置的差异对城乡收入差距具有决定性作用;城乡劳动力比的增长明显有助于缩小城乡收入差距,而城乡人力资本比、固定资本投入比、农业成本、以及相邻地区间的相关性都导致了城乡收入差距的扩大。缩小城乡差距的重要途径是加快农村劳动力的城市化、增加农村教育投入、提高农业生产率、增加农村的物质资本投入,各省缩小城乡收入差距的努力对邻近省份也会产生积极影响。     

Capital markets and capital allocation: Implications for economies in transition*

Recent work showing that a sounder financial system is associated with faster economic growth has important implications for transition economies. Stock prices in developed economies move in highly firm‐specific ways that convey information about changes in firms’ marginal value of investment. This information facilitates the rapid flow of capital to its highest value uses. In contrast, stock prices in low‐income countries tend to move up and down en masse, and thus are of scant use for microeconomic capital allocation. Some transition economy markets are coming to resemble those of developed economies, others those of low‐income countries. Stock return asynchronicity is highly correlated with the strength of private property rights in general and public shareholders’ rights in particular. Other recent work suggests that small entrenched elites in low‐income countries preserve their sweeping control over the corporate sectors of their economies by using political influence to undermine the financial system and deprive entrants of capital. The lack of cross‐sectional independence in some transition economies’ stock returns may be a warning of such economic entrenchment. Sound property rights, solid shareholder rights, stock market transparency, and capital account openness appear to check this, and thus contribute to efficient capital allocation and economic growth.     

Costly Factor Reallocation and Reduced Productivity Effects in International Trade

Most models of international trade assume extremes of factor mobility between productive uses. From perfectly mobile factors in the Heckscher–Ohlin model, to fixed capital and mobile labor in the Ricardo–Viner–Jones model, factors are assumed to move costlessly or not at all. In reality, factors are neither perfectly mobile nor fixed. This paper considers costs of reallocating factors between industries, deriving a measure of adjustment costs due to factor specificity in a two‐period model of a firm's input allocation decision. The degrees of specificity for labor and capital are then estimated based on data for 15 industries in 16 countries covering eight years. Estimating a system of nonlinear first‐order conditions using a three‐stage least squares technique, I find that recently reallocated factors are indeed less productive. Labor is 14% less productive in the period after reallocation, while capital productivity falls by 43%. Thereafter, capital, unlike labor, moves quickly toward full productivity.     

Knowledge of African countries: production and value of doctoral dissertations

The notion that lack of knowledge undermines the economic performance of African countries is deeply and widely held to be true. Yet quantitative evidence for the basis of that truth is few and far in-between. This article first describes a conventional production function approach to the creation of knowledge of African countries in terms of a relative and indirect measure of the quantity of dissertations (D). Second, it assesses the imputed values of knowledge. In the first instance it finds that relative income (Y), population (N), openness (Z), and technical factors (A) are central to the production of knowledge of African countries. In the second instance, the imputed values of knowledge are positive, but of modest magnitude. The results recommend more investment in the production of knowledge of African countries, improved openness, and especially reduced opportunity cost of knowledge creation which now differs widely across countries, and averages 10.7%. For further research the results suggest that dissertations may be useful proxies for human capital in economic growth regressions.     

Environmental capital flight and pollution tax

This paper analyzes the impacts of a production pollution tax on environmental capital flight and national product in a two-country static general equilibrium model with two-way foreign investment. It is assumed that the capital input in both countries is a composite good of domestic and imported capital. And pollution is assumed to originate in the production process. The productivity of capital in each country is negatively (or positively) related to the worldwide aggregate emissions.The analysis shows that when a domestic pollution tax is levied, domestic capital outflows increase and foreign capital inflows decrease for sufficiently high elasticities of substitution between labor (immobile input) and capital (mobile input) in both countries. Moreover, with negative transnational externalities, increases of a domestic pollution tax reduce domestic production and increase foreign production. The difficulty of substitution between immobile and mobile inputs hinders the optimal allocation of worldwide capital and national product. In this paper, the optimal pollution tax is based on global welfare maximization, not on global income maximization, taking into consideration the impact of income change on individual welfare. Therefore, an optimal pollution tax in the developing country should be lower for a given rate of pollution.     

Fire department demand and supply in large cities

The purpose of this study is to estimate demand and production functions for fire fighters provided in major cities. Several factors, including the level of fire losses in the communityper capitaincome, relative wages of fire fighters, population density, city size, and poverty are used in the analysis.

This study differs from earlier ones in two ways. First, multiple measures of community fire losses, instead of the usual one, are used in the analysis. Second, in contrast with earlier studies of fire protection which have typically relied on ordinary least squares regression analysis (OLS) to study either demand or production, this study employs two stage least squares regression analysis (2SLS) to simultaneously estimate demand and production relations.

Evidence is found that demand for fire fighting is affected by both fire losses and relative size of per capitaincome to fire fighter wages. Losses, in turn, are affected by fire fighting hours, by poverty and by density. There is some evidence for economies of scale. The results were consistently found for the variety of loss measures used. The 2SLS results indicated that, as expected, there are simultaneous effects occurring in demand and supply.     

Should mobile capital pay for public infrastructure investment?

The paper contributes to the discussion of fiscal competition with infrastructure goods. We explicitly focus on the costs of providing public infrastructure capital that appear in the public budget as investment. Thus we analyse the problem in a dynamic framework. Public infrastructure is considered as a marginal product complement to private capital. A central result of the model is that the fact that public capital is a complement to private capital, so that an increase in the supply of public capital ceteris paribus improves the marginal productivity of private capital, cannot be used as an argument to support a source tax. The so-called indirect productivity effect on private capital induced by public inputs does not justify the taxation of mobile capital. Rather, the efficiency of a source tax on mobile capital income depends on the question of whether or not the public input generates a factor rent to private capital.

Deconstructing gravity: trade costs and extensive and intensive margins

Abstract This paper uses data on US exports to decompose exports into the number of exporting firms (the extensive margin) and average export sales (the intensive margin). We show how a range of proxies for trade costs has different impacts on the two margins. Distance has a negative effect on both margins, but the magnitude is considerably larger for the extensive margin. Most of the variables capturing language, internal geography, infrastructure and import cost barriers work through the extensive margin. We show that these results are consistent with a Melitz‐style model of trade with heterogeneous firm productivity and fixed costs.     

Institutional Quality Mediates the Effect of Human Capital on Economic Performance

This paper considers the relationship between institutional quality, educational outcomes, and economic performance. More specifically, we seek to establish the linkages by which government effectiveness affects per capita income via its mediating impact on human capital formation. Our empirical approach adopts a two‐stage strategy that estimates national‐level educational production functions that include government effectiveness as a covariate, and uses these estimates as instruments for human capital in cross‐country regressions of per capita income. Our results identify a significant and positive effect of human capital on per capita income levels, and partially resolves the inconsistency between macro‐ and micro‐level studies of the effect of human capital on income. The results remain robust to alternative specifications, extension to a panel setting, subsamples of the data and fully endogenous institutions.     

Why Do the Rich Save More? A Theory and Australian Evidence*

We provide a theory to explain the existence of inequality in an economy where agents have identical preferences and have access to the same production technology. Agents consume a ‘health’ good which determines their subjective discount factor. Depending on initial distribution of capital the economy gets separated into different permanent‐income groups. This leads to a testable hypothesis: ‘The rich save a larger proportion of their permanent‐income’. We test this implication for savings behaviour in Australia. We find that even after controlling for lifecycle and health characteristics, higher permanent income is positively related with higher savings rates and better saving habits.     

What role for human capital in the growth process: new evidence from endogenous latent factor panel quantile regressions

The estimates for the human capital effect in cross‐country growth regressions have been subject of considerable controversy. We argue that human capital is intrinsically a multidimensional construct. We construct human capital measure by combining available alternative proxies via confirmatory factor analysis. Using panel data endogenous quantile regression methods we analyse the whole conditional growth distribution by simultaneously accounting for the potential endogeneity of human capital and country‐specific effects. Our results conform to theoretical expectations and we are able to demonstrate the beneficial effect of both the measurement approach and the endogeneity correction on the derivation of theoretically consistent estimates.     

Tax Havens,Growth, and Welfare

This paper develops an endogenous growth model featuring tax havens, and uses it to examine how the existence of tax havens affects the economic growth rate and social welfare in high‐tax countries. We show that the presence of tax havens generates two conflicting channels in determining the growth effect. First, the public investment effect states that tax havens may erode tax revenues and in turn decrease the government's infrastructure expenditure, thereby reducing growth. Second, the tax planning effect of tax havens reduces marginal cost of capital and hence encourages capital accumulation so as to spur economic growth. The overall growth effect is ambiguous and is determined by the extent of these two effects. The welfare analysis shows that tax havens are more likely to be welfare‐enhancing if the government expenditure share in production is low, or the initial income tax rate is high. Moreover, the welfare‐maximizing income tax rate is lower than the growth‐maximizing income tax rate if tax havens are present.     

Public and private inputs in aggregate production and growth: a cross-country efficiency approach

In a cross section of OECD countries, we replace the macroeconomic production function by a production possibility frontier, total factor productivity being the composite effect of efficiency scores and possibility frontier changes. We consider, for the periods 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 one output – GDP per worker – and three inputs – human capital, public physical capital per worker and private physical capital per worker. We use a semi-parametric analysis, computing Malmquist productivity indexes, and we also resort to stochastic frontier analysis. Results show that private capital is important for growth, although public and human capital also contribute positively. A governance indicator, a nondiscretionary input, explains inefficiency. Better governance helps countries to achieve a better performance. Nonparametric and parametric results coincide rather closely on the movements of the countries vis-à-vis the possibility frontier and on their relative distances to the frontier.     

Love and taxes – and matching institutions

Abstract Income disparities and the intra‐family redistribution implied by a marriage may induce a high‐income earner to abstain from marrying a low‐income earner even though they would be a perfect match emotionally. Redistributive income taxation eases this problem, and the design of marriage matching institutions interacts with this role of redistributive taxation. Matching institutions that ensure that people largely from the same income groups meet each other can substitute for redistribution. Matching across income groups that focuses on emotional quality or preference congruence of the match may increase the efficiency‐enhancing role of taxation.