政府宏观政策和经济波动对经济增长的影响

基于分工网络动态演进的过程,讨论了政府宏观政策和经济波动对经济增长产生影响的内在机制,并结合中国数据对该机制进行了经验分析。指出:经济波动和增长是分工网络动态演进过程中的两种宏观表象;经济波动对经济增长的影响与分工网络的结构特征和演进过程有关;政府宏观政策对经济增长的影响取决于各地区的经济结构和发展水平,按规则的长期政策对经济增长有正影响,相机抉择的短期政策对经济增长有负影响。     

就业弹性、自然失业和宏观经济政策--为什么经济增长没有带来显性就业?

尽管通常的计算低估了中国的就业弹性 ,但调整后的弹性数值仍属偏低。为什么经济的增长没有带来相应的就业增长呢 ?首先 ,反周期的宏观经济政策对解决自然失业是无能为力的 ;其次 ,在反周期的宏观经济政策所能调节的周期性失业方面 ,由于宏观经济政策所引导的投资方向往往是就业密集度较低的行业 ,进而导致反周期措施拉动就业的能力大为降低。因此 ,完善劳动力市场机制、加强职业培训体系建设、推动高就业产业发展 ,应成为经济政策的重点。     

发展方式、经济脆弱性与宏观政策

一、当前发展方式的基本特征 要从发展方式的视角来观察当前的经济形势,有必要简单地勾画一下当前我国发展方式的基本特征.我国经济发展方式是粗放的,"广种薄收",靠高投入、高消耗来维持总产出的高增长,是一种低效的发展方式.     

Evolution in Division of Labor and Macroeconomic Policies

The relative merits of income-tax and money financing of a constant share of government expenditure in GNP are assessed in a dynamic learning-by-doing model with endogenous specialization. It is shown that the mode of the financing policy has real effects, in particular on the speed of evolution in division of labor and the growth rate of an economy. Different government financing methods invoke different effects; as the economy develops, the effectiveness of these policies may vary with the extent of the division of labor. Some of the effects are also found to be substantially different from those in conventional models with exogenous specialization.     

Restrictive Macroeconomic Policies and Unemployment in the European Union

This paper looks at the impact the European integration process has had on the unemployment level of European Union member countries. While the persistence of relatively high unemployment in Europe is often attributed to supply-side factors, such as the rigidities of the labour market, this study contends that the major cause for the rise of unemployment in the EU has been the very macroeconomic policies of the EU itself. The paper argues that the continuous pursuit of deflationary policies and the macroeconomic constraint imposed first by the membership of the European Monetary System and, secondly, by the convergence criteria of the Maastricht Treaty, have been the real impediments to reducing unemployment.     

住房市场波动与宏观经济政策的有效性

本文建立了一个多部门随机动态一般均衡模型,分析住房市场波动与宏观经济运行的关系,并重点探讨商品生产部门投资效率下降的背景下,不同宏观经济政策及组合的有效性。结果表明,住房市场杠杆率上升,会放大住房部门波动,影响宏观经济稳定。当扰动来自于商品生产部门投资效率变动时,住房市场波动呈逆周期变化,需求管理可稳定产出,但会助长房价或挤出私人投资;结构性的减税降费措施可有效稳定产出,缓解住房市场波动;宏观审慎管理能有效平抑房价,但会加大产出波动。在难以精准识别减税降费力度时,货币政策、宏观审慎和减税降费等结构性措施构成的次优政策组合可以较好地兼顾稳增长、控房价和调结构,并提高社会福利。     

Gender Equality and Long-Run Growth

This research suggests that long-run economic and demographic development in Europe can be better understood when related to long-term trends in gender equality, dating back to the spread of Christianity. We set up a growth model where gaps in female-to-male human capital arise at equilibrium through a coordination process. An economy which over a long stretch of time re-coordinates on continuously more equal equilibria—as one could argue happened in Europe—exhibits growth patterns qualitatively similar to that of Europe.     

应对次贷金融危机的宏观经济政策比较

次贷金融危机发生后,学术界分析了宏观经济学发展的不足,政策操作方面也进行了调整.中国经济作为新兴经济体的典型代表,同发达经济体和其他发展中国家经济体相比较,具有二元经济加转轨经济的特点,又处于高速发展逐渐放缓的过程.在借鉴和比较发达经济体与新兴经济体次贷金融危机应对经验的基础上,中国宏观经济政策应该重视本国制度背景和发展阶段,更多考虑总供给因素.     

Intertemporal Budget Policies and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Indebted Open Economies

This paper analyzes the role of government intertemporal budget policies in a growing open economy including nominal assets in the presence of an upward sloping supply of debt. This introduces transitional dynamics that influence the effects of government policy instruments on economic growth and the long term fiscal liability. It is shown that capital income taxes or a combination of tax‐cum‐expenditure or government expenditure alone can balance the long term intertemporal government budget constraint. However, those results are shown to depend critically upon the extent of distortion in capital flows brought about the upward sloping supply of debt.     

增长、平等与治理:拉美的经验

经济增长会给政治管理带来怎样的挑战呢？这正是作者在本文中提出的问题。通过对智利、巴西和墨西哥这三个拉美国家的实证分析，作者认为，执政党要吸纳各种不同的社会力量并且要对收入差距问题予以重视。惟有如此，才能够在经济转型时期实现善治。     

The Effects of Macroeconomic Policies in a Mercantilist Economy

By introducing money and foreign exchange in the Zou (1997) model of mercantilism, the paper shows the effects of macroeconomic policies in mercantilist economies. It is shown that in the long run, consumption and foreign asset accumulation increases as a result of stronger mercantilist sentiments, permanent increases in the consumption tax, increases in the monetary growth rate and purchases of foreign bonds. In the short run, however, macroeconomic disturbances including the mercantilist sentiments, the monetary growth rate, and the consumption tax have negative effects on current consumption and positive effects on current foreign asset accumulation, while purchasing foreign bonds has positive effects on both current consumption and current foreign asset accumulation. The theoretical explorations may provide a theoretical structure for hoarding international reserves and export-led growth strategy utilized by emerging market economies.     

Research Subsidies, Population Control Policies, and Growth

Several R&D‐based growth models without scale effects claim that subsidies to R&D are not conductive for economic growth while a faster growing population is. Yet, in an effort to maintain high growth rates, most OECD countries continue to subsidize R&D, while several developing countries are trying to control the size of their population. Are these countries misguided? This study introduces an R&D‐based growth model that is characterized by complementarities between technology and human capital. The model is free of scale effects and consistent with the above‐mentioned policies. By applying the model to US data the study uncovers a possible explanation for the productivity slowdown.     

Macroeconomic Policy and Employment Growth in Australia

Abstract
This article, which explores various aspects of macroeconomic policy and employment growth, is prompted by the relative lack of attention given to these issues in the Green and White Papers on unemployment. The problem of hysteresis reinforces the generally recognised need to reduce the excessive volatility of output and employment growth in Australia. International comparisons presented in the article suggest that Australian output and employment growth have been more volatile than those of the three major OECD countries. Reduction in macroeconomic volatility requires more effective short-term demand management than we have had in the recent past, and in turn, means that we must know more about the strength and timing of the effects of major macroeconomic policy instruments on employment growth and unemployment. This article presents employment growth equations for Australia over the period 1979–93 which incorporate domestic macroeconomic policy effects as well as the influences of the international business cycle. We show that monetary and fiscal policy have had a significant impact on the evolution of employment in Australia and, in particular, that tight monetary and fiscal policy contributed substantially to the recession of 1990–92.     

The Internal Organization of the Firm, Transaction Costs, and Macroeconomic Growth

This articleanalyzes the links between the internal organization of the firmand macroeconomic growth. We present a Schumpeterian growth modelin which firms face agency costs due to the existence of asymmetriesof information and the formation of vertical collusions insidethose firms. To respond to the threat of collusion, optimal collusion-proofincentive contracts depend on the efficiency of collusive sidecontracting within organizations. Collusion affects thereforethe firms' profitability, the incentives to innovate, and, finally,the stationary equilibrium growth rate of the economy. On theother hand, when the growth rate is small, the prospects of long-termrelationships within firms increase the agents' incentives toinvest in a better collusive technology. We then discuss thetwo-way relationships between the structure of internal transactioncosts, organizational technologies, and macroeconomic growth.     

Industrial Policies and the Macroeconomic Effects of Taxation: some comments

Comments are made by Amable & Petit (1996), which examines industrial policies, and by Mair & Laramie (1996), which examines taxation policies. Agreement is found with both papers that modern Keynesian policy has much to offer in these two areas beyond what is generally presumed. Expectations formation is pointed to as one area that both these papers should more explicitly incorporate in their arguments. Similarly, regional considerations and ‘location competition’ are held to be important considerations. The role of finance is pointed to as a fundamental Keynesian consideration that needs to be addressed in effectively formulating industrial and taxation policies.     

社会平等、中性政府与中国经济增长

本文从社会平等的角度给出了一个对中国经济增长的政治经济学解释。本文的理论模型表明,平等的社会结构使得政府选择成为一个中性政府,即在社会群体之间没有特定长期偏好的政府,这样的政府更可能把资源分配给生产力比较高的社会群体,从而促进经济增长。得益于中国革命所带来的平等的社会结构,以及改革开放初期党的工作重点向经济建设的转移,中国政府在过去三十多年是一个中性政府,采纳了有利于经济长期发展的政策。但同时,政府把有限的资源分配给生产力较高的群体或地区,必然会扩大收入差距。     

转轨背景、公司成长性与债务融资——来自于上市公司的经验证据

本文以上市公司为样本，研究了在我国转轨背景下，影响债务融资的诸多因素，并重点分析了资产成长性对债务融资的影响。通过研究我们发现，商业信用是企业的重要债务来源，相比较短期借款和长期借款，企业和企业之间商业信用有着较好的契约基础。通过分析资产成长性和短期借款、长期借款关系，我们发现企业在借款资金的使用上有着诸多不合理之处。说明影响企业进行信贷资金决策的市场和金融环境还不够成熟。因此，我们认为优化企业债务结构的关键是建立产权清晰、规则透明的契约型环境。