The global financial crisis,financial linkages and correlations in returns and volatilities in emerging MENA stock markets

The 2007 United States financial crisis has developed into the most severe worldwide economic crisis since the 1927 Great Depression. In addition to its severe repercussion in North America and the European Union, the crisis has put pressure on emerging markets in general, and the Middle East and North Africa region in particular. For a better understanding of how the crisis affected the MENA region, we focus in this paper on the global and regional financial linkages between MENA stock markets and the more developed financial markets, and on the intra-regional financial linkages between MENA countries' financial markets.     

Machine learning and the cross-section of emerging market stock returns

This paper compares various machine learning models to predict the cross-section of emerging market stock returns. We document that allowing for non-linearities and interactions leads to economically and statistically superior out-of-sample returns compared to traditional linear models. Although we find that both linear and machine learning models show higher predictability for stocks associated with higher limits to arbitrage, we also show that this effect is less pronounced for non-linear models. Furthermore, significant net returns can be achieved when accounting for transaction costs, short-selling constraints, and limiting our investment universe to big stocks only.     

Debt source choices and stock market performance of Russian firms during the financial crisis

This paper examines the relationship between stock returns and the sources of corporate debt during the financial crisis of 2008. In particular, using data on large-capitalization Russian firms, we investigate whether dependence on either bank debt or bonds affected stock returns during the credit crunch. Our results indicate that the firms which rely entirely on bank debt significantly outperformed the firms with public debt amidst the crisis. This finding suggests that bank debt may be particularly valuable in harsh times. However, we also document that the stock prices of the bank dependent firms recovered more slowly in the post-crisis period.     

Stock market correlations between China and its emerging market neighbors

We examine interlinkages of stock return behavior for China and three emerging market neighbors from the Asia Pacific region from November 1993 to July 2008. Results are based on a VAR model. Impulse responses and vector decomposition of VAR are also utilized. Evidence suggests that the aggregate markets are mostly not interrelated. However, we observe relations between China and the other markets when foreign investor returns are specifically accounted for. In addition, a shock originating in China is significantly felt in the other equity markets. Stock market characteristics and macroeconomic conditions of these countries may help explain the observed relations.     

The anatomy of financial crises: Evidence from the emerging ADR market

We study the anatomy of recent financial crises in Mexico, East Asia, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina by investigating the efficiency and pricing of the emerging American depositary receipt (ADR) market. We use a non-parametric technique to test for persistent regime shifts in two basic structural relationships for ADR returns in 20 emerging countries — identified via arbitrage and capital mobility considerations — that should always hold in efficient and integrated capital markets. We find that those “normal” market conditions were instead often violated in proximity of financial crises: The law of one price often weakened (by 54% on average) and domestic sources of risk became more important (often by more than 100%) for many emerging ADRs. We also find the likelihood of these regime shifts to be related to proxies for uncertainty among investors, exchange rate volatility, trade linkages, and liquidity (but not stock market trends, currency devaluations, capital flight, or capital controls).     

Real-time effects of central bank intervention in the euro market

This paper investigates the real-time effects of sterilized foreign exchange intervention using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Our analysis employs a two-step weighted least squares estimation procedure. We control for macro surprises, address the issue of endogeneity, and carry out an array of robustness tests. Only when the direction of intervention is consistent with the monetary policy stance do we find that intervention exerts a significant influence on exchange rate returns.     

Austerity in the Baltic states during the global financial crisis

The Baltic states were arguably the countries most severely affected by the global financial crisis. This article discusses the boom preceding the crisis, the ensuing austerity policies and the economic effects of these policies. All three countries maintained fixed exchange rates, but the degree of fiscal austerity varied across the countries, with Estonia undertaking the strongest fiscal consolidation in 2009. The downturn was so swift and deep that expansionary policies were unlikely to affect short-term outcomes. Growth returned towards the end of 2009, largely driven by exports. The export performance cannot be directly linked to the austerity policies. The main lesson from the Baltics is that increased macroeconomic stability must be attained by avoiding overheating and unsustainable financial exposure. The challenge for the future is to ensure that austerity policies are implemented during economic booms.     

股票市场波动性研究述评

创业板市场的波动性研究,对于完善我国证券市场机制、危机风险管理有着重要的意义。本文从研究对象、杠杆效应、长记忆性、模型拟合的角度描述股票市场的一些国内研究成果,即GARCH模型的发展和应用。     

The global financial crisis: An analysis of the spillover effects on African stock markets

This paper examines the relative importance of the global and regional markets for financial markets in developing countries, particularly during the US financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. Specifically, we examine the way in which the degree of regional (seven African markets combined), global (China, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US), commodity (gold and petroleum), and nominal effective exchange rate (Euro and US dollar) spillovers to individual African countries evolved during the two crises through the econometric method introduced by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). We find that African markets are most severely affected by spillovers from global markets and only modestly from commodity and currency markets. Conversely, regional spillovers within Africa are smaller than global ones, and hence, African markets are insulated from global crises. We also find that the aggregated spillover effects of European countries to the African markets exceeded the corresponding effects of the US, even in the wake of the US financial crisis.     

The role of trade credit in the recent subprime financial crisis

This study tests firms’ financing behavior, especially the causal relation between trade credit and bank credit around the time of the recent subprime financial crises. I find bank credit and accounts payable/receivable are simultaneously determined and there is a substitute/complementary effect between bank credit and accounts payable/receivable. Moreover, I test a cross-sectional response to crisis and find that firms with a more vulnerable financial position (i.e., financially constrained firms) are more likely to be negatively affected by crisis and, in turn, are more likely to cut their supply of credit to customers and increase their use of credit from suppliers.     

Charter value, Tobin's Q and bank risk during the subprime financial crisis

Charter value is important in the banking industry because of its ability to reduce the moral hazard incentives that result from government-provided deposit insurance. Previous research suggests that geographic deregulation in the 1970s and 1980s increased competition and eroded charter values. Yet, a common proxy for charter value, Tobin's Q, increased significantly in the 1990s and beyond even as bank deregulation continued. We show that Tobin's Q is a poor cardinal measure of charter value though it still has merit as an ordinal measure. Our findings suggest that charter value has been declining through time, contributing to the increase in risk-taking that led to the subprime financial crisis.     

机构投资行为对股票市场波动性影响分析

随着我国经济的不断发展,我国的资本市场也在不断的完善和机构投资者实力和规模的不断增强,机构构投资者在其中扮演的角色也是越来越显著,机构投资者对股票市场波动性的影响也存在很大的不确定性。本文分析了当前我国机构投资者的发展现状和不足,并给出了相关建议。     

Dollar illiquidity and central bank swap arrangements during the global financial crisis

While the global financial crisis was centered in the United States, it led to a surprising appreciation in the dollar, suggesting global dollar illiquidity. In response, the Federal Reserve partnered with other central banks to inject dollars into the international financial system. Empirical studies of the success of these efforts have yielded mixed results, in part because their timing is likely to be endogenous. In this paper, we examine the cross-sectional impact of these interventions. Theory consistent with dollar appreciation in the crisis suggests that their impact should be greater for countries that have greater exposure to the United States through trade and financial channels, less transparent holdings of dollar assets, and greater illiquidity difficulties. We examine these predictions for observed cross-sectional changes in CDS spreads, using a new proxy for innovations in perceived changes in sovereign risk based upon Google-search data. We find robust evidence that auctions of dollar assets by foreign central banks disproportionately benefited countries that were more exposed to the United States through either trade linkages or asset exposure. We obtain weaker results for differences in asset transparency or illiquidity. However, several of the important announcements concerning the international swap programs disproportionately benefited countries exhibiting greater asset opaqueness.     

Bank credit,public financial incentives,tax financial incentives and export performance during the global financial crisis

This paper investigates the extent to which access to credit, public financial incentives and tax financial incentives affect export performance using the EU-EFIGE/Bruegel-Unicredit data set, covering firms within Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Hungary and the UK during the 2008 global financial crisis. The results show that firms receiving credit or benefiting from public financial incentives display higher export intensity and export a greater number of product lines compared to those that did not, especially in countries with better access to credit and/or financial incentives during the crisis. Further, firms benefiting from tax financial incentives show a better export performance compared to those that did not, regardless of the degree of access to credit and/or financial incentives in the country in which they operate. In addition, the effect of access to credit and public finance incentives on export performance is found to be size-dependent, while the effect of tax financial incentives is not. We suggest that governments should promote publicly funded financial incentives along with conventional schemes, such as R&D subsidies, to promote exports, particularly during a period of financial crisis.     

The impact of crisis events on the stock returns volatility of international airlines

This paper adopts the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to examine the relationship between the weekly returns of shares of the international airlines in 1996–2010. It also incorporates major international crisis events and observes the influence of different aspects on the volatility of returns of company shares. Different events exhibit significantly different regional volatility impulses in the countries in which the airlines are located. The Asian financial crisis enhances the returns volatility effects of Asian airline companies. The global financial crisis significantly intervenes with the returns volatility of airline companies around the world. The results suggest that major international events may all have risk effects on the returns on the share prices of airlines.     

The global financial crisis: Some suggestions for reform of the global financial architecture in the light of Islamic finance

The article argues that the primary cause of the current subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is the absence of adequate market discipline in the financial system. This tends to promote excessive lending, high leverage, speculation, and an unsustainable rise in asset prices. Unwinding later on gives rise to a vicious cycle of selling that feeds on itself and leads to a steep decline in asset prices followed by financial crisis and economic slowdown. The solution lies in introducing risk sharing along with the availability of credit for primarily the purchase of real goods and services that Islamic finance aims at introducing. This can help inject greater discipline into the system and, thereby, substantially reduce financial instability. Since the introduction of greater discipline into the financial system may deprive the subprime borrowers of credit, the article also discusses the need for finding ways of satisfying their genuine credit needs. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The impact of global factors on stock market movements in emerging market economies

Global factors are becoming increasingly important as a cause of international capital fl ows. It is nearly impossible for some countries to protect themselves from outside infl uences on their fi nancial markets. This paper investigates the extent to which various global factors such as stock market volatility, international liquidity and global interest rate levels impact on the effective fi nancial market exchange rates of selected emerging market economies. These results are compared with effects on the fi nancial market exchange rates of the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany.