Estimates of the Effect of School Desegregation Plans on Housing Values Over Time

This study investigates the impact that school desegregation can have on the market values of affected residential properties. It improves upon previous studies in that it is able to estimate not only the "racial enrollment" effect but also "other" desegregation-related effects correlated with white perceptions of school quality, etc. Through the use of a controlled longitudinal and cross-sectional data set of property sales and a ridge-regression methodology, it is able to estimate these effects over time and separate them from amenity-related effects. Results are significant in that they predict substantial desegregation-related effects on house values over time, averaging 11.4% of property value, which correlate with school desegregation court rulings and other events. Furthermore, over one-third of the magnitude of this discount is related to desegregation factors other than actual racial enrollment patterns in the schools.     

Alternative Housing Price Indices: An Evaluation

This paper reports on research in which eleven alternative housing price indices are constructed for two Vancouver neighbourhoods for the period from 1957 to 1979. Three criteria for good indices are presented, and the eleven indices, as well as several government and industry indices are evaluated in accordance with those criteria. It is determined that, almost surprisingly, an index based on mean sales values performs well, as do several of the hedonic price equation based indices. Several policy implications of the analysis are then discussed.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Housing Decisions of Older Homeowners

This paper examines the effects of finanacial, demographic and housing variables on older homeowners' propensity to make a variety of housing changes. Pooled cross-sectional data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics is used in a multinomial logit framework. The results indicate that demographic factors are much more important than financial factors in explaining housing changes by older homeowners.     

An Empirical Examination of Traditional Neighborhood Development

This study analyzes the impact of the new urbanism on single-family home prices. Specifically, we explore the price differential that homebuyers pay for houses in new urbanist developments relative to houses in conventional suburban developments. Using data on over 5,000 single-family home sales from 1994 to 1997 in three different neighborhoods, hedonic regression results reveal that consumers pay more for homes in new urbanist communities than those in conventional suburban developments. Further analyses indicate that the price premium is not attributable to differences in improvement age and other housing characteristics.     

城市住宅价格与宏观经济变量的关系分析——基于VAR模型的实证研究

通过分析选取住宅价格指数(HPI)、国内生产总值增长率(GDP)、1-3年期银行贷款利率(IR)作为内生变量,滞后两期的广义货币供应量(M2)作为外生变量,建立了向量自回归模型。并在此基础上,运用协整分析、脉冲响应函数、方差分解和格兰杰因果检验等研究方法对住宅价格指数与宏观经济变量之间的动态相关关系进行了研究。研究结果表明,我国的住宅价格与所选用的宏观经济变量之间存在一定交互响应作用,并就此提出了相关建议。     

住宅消费公平价格与商品住宅性能认定

本通过对影响住宅消费公平价格形成的因素进行分析,并联系商品住宅性能认定制度,阐述了四类因素对住宅消费公平价格形成的影响和与性能认定的联系。对性能认定中存在的问题提出了建议。     

价格促销与D＆B忠诚模式关联实证研究

顾客赢回管理概念模型包括价格促销策略，顾客感知（价格敏感、信任和情感），算计性承诺和顾客忠诚（真正忠诚、表面忠诚、潜在忠诚和不忠诚）等变量。研究目的是考查价格促销．算计性承诺和顾客忠诚之间的关系。研究数据来源于中国酒店行业（N=1074）。研究发现，价格促销导致顾客价格敏感，淡化了顾客对厂商的信任、情感等内在动机．并对顾客的忠诚形成有负面影响：研究揭示了价格促销策略使厂商陷入进退两难困境的深层次根源：研究对指导管理者采取恰当的赢回策略开展流失顾客的赢回管理具有借鉴和参考价值。     

Alternative Mortgage Instruments, Qualification Constraints and the Demand for Housing: An Empirical Analysis

Government-guaranteed mortgage loans (GFRMs) and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) were introduced to make payment to income (PTI) and loan-to-value (LTV) qualification conventions less restrictive. This paper analyzes the effect of GFRMs and ARMs on the demand for housing. Using a large national data set for the 1988 to 1989 period, we employ a two-stage procedure to estimate housing demand. In the first stage, a multinomial logit model estimates the probability of choosing an FRM, ARM or GFRM. Predicted values from the logit are used to construct user costs and estimate housing demand. Using the model estimates, we simulate demand under four different mortgage availability regimes: FRM, FRM and GFRM, FRM and ARM and all three. These simulations indicate that GFRMs, by relaxing LTV constraints, increase housing demand by approximately 6.2% relative to the FRM regime; the addition of ARMs, by relaxing both PTI and LTV constraints, raises demand by an additional 6%, for a total of 12.2% with inclusion of all alternatives.     

后危机时代我国粮价影响因素的实证研究

农业是国民经济的基础产业,粮食市场价格的稳定是关系到社会安全和经济发展的重大战略问题。然而,后危机时代在国际粮价飙升和国内农业生产资料价格上升等多方面因素的影响下,我国粮食市场价格上涨压力倍增。本文采取定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,通过SPSS软件对影响我国粮价的重要因素进行实证研究,并进一步对解决我国粮食价格问题进行了初步的探讨。     

基于挤出效应的住房保障规模对商品住房价格的影响

中国房地产市场中保障性住房的角色和作用愈加重要,保障性住房建设规模正在逐年扩大.商品住房价格变化是供给需求作用的结果,但是随着保障房供给规模的增加,商品住房价格的涨幅也会发生改变,说明保障房的供给规模会对普通商品房的供需产生影响.本文以北京市商品住房市场为例,选取住宅需求、住宅供给、住房投机对价格的影响为自变量,住宅价格为因变量,利用多元回归模型对商品住房价格变化进行实证研究,同时通过考虑保障房供给对住房市场产生的不同挤出效应,分析保障房供给规模供需变化对房价产生的影响,进而为政府制定相关的住房保障政策提供建议和对策.     

国际高油价对我国经济影响的实证分析

进入21世纪以来,我国的石油消费量迅速增加,高油价对我国经济的负效应日益显著。文章简述几种高油价对经济影响的作用机制,并运用回归模型分析国际油价变动对我国人均实际工业总产值（GIF）的影响。结果表明,在不考虑油价变动对经济影响的非对称性的情况下,国际油价每上涨（下降）10％,则我国人均实际工业总产值下降（上升）0．24％。如果考虑到油价变动对经济影响的非对称性,国际油价每上涨10％,我国人均实际工业总产值下降0.46％,而国际油价每下跌10％,我国人均实际工业总产值仅上升0.05％。     

Nonparametric Estimation of Dynamic Hedonic Price Models and the Construction of Residential Housing Price Indices

Parametric specifications for hedonic price equations are estimated using a data set from Alameda and San Francisco Counties and are compared to estimates using a nonparametric technique called locally weighted regression, LWR. LWR permits flexible estimation of the hedonic's curvature at median attributes and is less sensitive than standard regression techniques to the influence of unusual observations. The technique also avoids imposing a single functional form across time and municipalities. The LWR estimates of municipality-specific hedonics are then used to obtain implicit prices for housing attributes and to derive municipality-specific price indices. The results of extensive diagnostic checks of our technique are also reported.     

Efficient versus Responsive Supply Chain Choice: An Empirical Examination of Influential Factors

Contemporary strategies in operations management suggest that successful firms align supply chain assets with product demand characteristics in order to exploit the profit potential of product lines fully. However, observation suggests that supply chain assets often are longer lived than product line decisions. This suggests that alignment between supply chain assets and demand characteristics is most likely to occur at the time of initial market entry. This article examines the association between product demand characteristics and the initial investment in a supply chain at the time of market entry. We characterize supply chains as responsive or efficient. A responsive supply chain is distinguished by short production lead‐times, low set‐up costs, and small batch sizes that allow the responsive firm to adapt quickly to market demand, but often at a higher unit cost. An efficient supply chain is distinguished by longer production lead‐times, high set‐up costs, and larger batch sizes that allow the efficient firm to produce at a low unit cost, but often at the expense of market responsiveness. We hypothesize that a firm's choice of responsive supply chain will be associated with lower industry growth rates, higher contribution margins, higher product variety, and higher demand or technological uncertainty. We further hypothesize that interactions among these variables either can reinforce or can temper the main effects. We report that lower industry growth rates are associated with responsive market entry, but this effect is offset if growth occurs during periods of high variety and high demand uncertainty. We report that higher contribution margins are associated with responsive market entry and that this effect is more pronounced when occurring with periods of high variety. Finally, we report that responsive market entry also is correlated positively with higher technological demand uncertainty. These results are found using data from the North American mountain bike industry.     

基于多中心城市结构的保障性住房价格测算

由廉租住房和成本销售型住房构成的政府供给型保障性住房,其价格在维持较低水平的同时,还应体现出住房品质的差异,从而实现合理的定价。论文针对政府供给型保障性住房,以区位因素为定价依据,将同心圆城市结构住宅租金测算模型进行拓展,建立扩展性多中心城市结构的住宅租金测度模型。同时基于多层次灰色系统建立区位差异指数测算模型,从而实现对不同区位的保障性住房的差别定价,为政府供给型保障性住房价格水平确定提供可操作性的方案。     

限价房定价模型实证研究

自2006年推出限价房政策以来,对我国的房价起到一定的平抑作用,但在定价方面存在不尽合理的问题,例如价格参考和价格波动风险等.限价房的定价机制是影响限价房政策执行效果的重要因素,建立科学合理的限价房定价模型并对其进行实证性的研究极其重要.文章通过综合分析各地限价房的定价方法,在前人研究基础上以中低收入家庭的月供及当地租赁价格为两个主要计算指标,对得出的数值进行赋权研究,建立了限价房定价模型.     

The Effects of Assumption Financing Across Housing Price Categories

This study employs a standard housing valuation model to analyze the capitalization of below-market financing across housing price categories. The study also investigates the effect of secondary financing on housing prices and the effect of the expected holding period on discount capitalization. Using a randomly selected sample of 1981–82 housing transactions the study finds: the discount associated with below-market financing is inversely related to the absolute level of housing prices; secondary financing bears no systematic relationship to housing values; and discount capitalization is inversely related to the expected holding period.     

The Duration of Marketing Time of Residential Housing

The marketing of unique durable goods such as housing presents a good example for the application of search theory. An optimal stopping rule strategy is employed to model sellers' behavior. The primary hypothesis is that the greater the atypicality of a house, the greater the expected variance of offers. Because a maximizing seller will wish to entertain more offers the greater is the variance, the marketing time of atypical houses will be relatively longer than that of standard houses. Using a sample of resale houses, the empirical study uses a failure time model to confirm the hypothesis. Extensions are mentioned, including discussions of the role of the list price and the limitations of the standard hedonic regression approach when applied to housing.     

资产价格波动与实体经济稳定研究

资产价格波动影响实体经济的程度与机制,一直备受关注。与国内其他相关研究相比,本文在样本选择上突出了资产价格波动影响消费和投资的针对性。通过构建引入资产价格的局部均衡分析模型和IS-LM扩展模型,本文采用现代时间序列分析的ADF检验、Granger因果检验、Johansen协整检验、VECM检验、脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解等多种方法进行研究,揭示了我国资产价格波动与实体经济稳定之间的相关性、因果关系、影响程度、影响过程和影响机制。     

Price Strategies for Idiosyncratic Goods—The Case of Housing

We determine the mechanism that a rational, profit-maximizing seller would use to revise his reservation price for a heterogeneous or infrequently exchanged good. For instance, while one dimension of a home's quality may be easily determined in competitive markets (e.g., the valuation of floor size, location, etc.), other dimensions of quality may be idiosyncratic (unit specific) and unobservable by the seller (e.g., aesthetics of the home). Here, a seller of a new or infrequently exchanged housing unit may use sales success information to revise his expectation of the unit's market-determined value and hence revise his reservation price. The rational seller will, upon arrival of the first buyer inspecting the unit, determine a sequence of reservation prices for this and expected subsequent buyers. This price sequence falls for subsequent buyers and starts from a lower initial price if the first buyer arrives later than expected. Through this mechanism, we offer an explanation for price dispersion and vacancy durations in housing markets. While we explicitly model the real estate market here, this price revision mechanism is also applicable to rental markets, labor markets, used car markets, and other markets characterized by heterogeneity and infrequent sales.