Parties,divided government,and infrastructure expenditures: Evidence from U.S. states

This paper examines the impact of parties and divided government on infrastructure expenditures for transportation, education, and social services in U.S. states. As infrastructure expenditures are considered a bi-partisan priority, we hypothesize that divided governments expand infrastructure spending compared to governments under true Democratic or Republican control. We test this hypothesis using U.S. state-level data over the period 1970 to 2008 and find that divided governments indeed increase expenditures for these budget categories. Specifically, divided governments spend more on transportation than unified Democratic governments, and more on education and social services than unified Republican governments. The effect is most pronounced for the core infrastructure of transportation and even stronger when only looking at capital outlays instead of total expenditures.     

Inequality and growth in the United States: is there asymmetric response at the state level?

A previous study that tried to assess the impact of economic growth on income inequality in the U.S. used state-level data and an ARDL panel model to conclude that economic growth worsens income inequality in the U.S. In this article, we use the same data set but an ARDL time-series model applied to each state in the U.S. to show that the above conclusion is only valid in 20 states. Additionally, we use a nonlinear ARDL approach to show that the effects are asymmetric in the short run as well as in the long run. Significant long-run asymmetric effects reveal that in 28 states both an increase and a decrease in real output have worsened income distribution.     

To Segregate or to Integrate: Education Politics and Democracy

How is the quality of public education affected by the presence of private schools for the rich? Theory and evidence suggest that the link depends crucially on the political system. We develop a theory that integrates private education and fertility decisions with voting on public schooling expenditures. We find that the presence of a large private education sector benefits public schools in a broad-based democracy where politicians are responsive to low-income families but crowds out public education spending in a society that is politically dominated by the rich. The main predictions of the theory are consistent with state-level data and micro data from the U.S. as well as cross-country evidence from the Programme for International Student Assessment study.     

AN EVALUATION OF SUBJECTIVE POVERTY DEFINITIONS: COMPARING RESULTS FROM THE U.S. AND THE NETHERLANDS

In this paper, results of applying the subjective definition of poverty, introduced by Goedhart et al. (1977), in the U.S. and the Netherlands are compared. This definition focuses on the monetary amounts which people consider necessary to make ends meet for their households as provided in response to the Minimum Income Question (MIQ). National data from both countries in the early 1980s are analyzed. In regressions of reported minimum income, corrections are made for the omission of income components and selective non-response. For the first time the relationship between fixed expenditures and the MIQ is examined. Factors significantly related to reported minimum income include household income, household composition, age, education, sex, region, fixed expenditures, and whether the household experienced recent income changes. The income elasticity appears to be smaller in the U.S. than in the Netherlands, while the effects of other socioeconomic factors are greater. On average, the resulting subjective income thresholds are above official poverty lines, but more so in the U.S. than in the Nerherlands. Whether thresholds based on answers to MIQs should be regarded as poverty lines remains open to question.     

Fiscal financing and the efficacy of fiscal policy in Korea: An empirical assessment with comparison to the U.S. evidence

This paper aims to assess the empirical implications of fiscal financing in Korea and study how they differ from those of the U.S. We estimate two versions of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model—a small open economy (SOE) model for Korea and its closed economy counterpart for the U.S.—in which the former nests the latter as a special case. The fiscal policy specification posits that government spending, lump-sum transfers, and distortionary taxation on labor income, capital income and consumption expenditures respond to the level of government debt and the state of economic activity. Analysis of the data from 2000 to 2015 shows that distortionary capital taxes play a critical role in stabilizing government debt in the U.S., whereas non-distorting fiscal instruments are the primary means of fiscal adjustment in Korea. Regarding the magnitude of debt-financed fiscal stimuli, the substantial trade openness of Korea is significant in that it produces relatively smaller government spending and transfer multipliers compared to the U.S.     

Is real per capita state personal income stationary? New nonlinear,asymmetric panel-data evidence

This paper re-examines the stochastic properties of U.S. state real per capita personal income, using new panel unit-root procedures. The new developments incorporate non-linearity, asymmetry, and cross-sectional correlation within panel-data estimation. Including nonlinearity and asymmetry finds that 43 states exhibit stationary real per capita personal income whereas including only nonlinearity produces 42 states that exhibit stationarity. Stated differently, we find that two states exhibit nonstationary real per capita personal income when considering nonlinearity, asymmetry, and cross-sectional dependence.     

Non-farm Income and Consumption Expenditures in Rural Bangladesh: Empirical Evidence from Multilevel Regression Modelling

This study examines the effects of non-farm income on household consumption expenditures in rural Bangladesh. A two-stage endogenous treatment effect model is built on data from a nationally representative Household Income Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2010 to control selection bias. The HIES follows a hierarchical data structure because the survey is based on two-stage stratified sampling. A multilevel mixed-effects linear regression model is used to capture the unobserved heterogeneity between clusters (PSUs) along with revealing important factors. Results reveal that non-farm income has a significant positive effect on household’s consumption expenditures and non-farm income recipient households spend about 29% more than their counterparts. In addition, higher level of per capita income, education, smaller family size and lower dependency ratio are found to be more effective in increasing consumption expenditures of rural households. Significant cluster-level variations are observed in the analyses. This study recommends that non-farm income generating activities should be encouraged among rural households as this would raise their consumption expenditures and hence, improve welfare and living standards among them.

     

The economics and politics of output volatility: evidence from Indian states

Employing data for 1981–2009, this paper examines the factors influencing the volatility of state output, using India as a case study. The analysis appears to suggest that high income states exhibit relatively higher output volatility. At the state-level, the proximate determinants of a decline in output volatility can be traced to financial deepening, government expenditures and institutional quality. Also, state-level political factors are also found to play an important role. In addition, at the macroeconomic level, monetary policy considerations are observed to be the most important factor impacting output volatility.     

Bonus pay for teachers,spatial sorting,and student achievement

Bonus pay policy for teachers in the U.S. is analyzed in this paper. We quantitatively argue that, because of the decentralized education finance system in the U.S., this policy may lead to higher teacher and household sorting across school districts. This then may lead to higher variance of achievement and lower mean achievement. Formally, we use an equilibrium political economy model of education at which households, heterogeneous in exogenously set income, and teachers, heterogeneous in exogenously set quality, are endogenously allocated across two school districts. Public education expenditures, which includes teachers’ wage payment and non-teacher related education spending, are financed through local income taxation. Income tax rate in each district is determined via majority voting. Achievement depends on the efforts chosen by teachers and non-teacher related education spending. Teacher efficiency wage per unit of quality is determined at the national teacher labor market. We first calibrate our benchmark model by matching certain statistics from the U.S. data. Then in a computational experiment, we introduce bonus pay for teachers which rises with average achievement. We find that for the recently observed level of average bonus pay (6.59% of average base salary), variance of achievement is 2.46% higher and mean achievement is 1.79% lower than the benchmark. Variance of achievement reaches its peak when average bonus pay is 14.06% and then it starts falling. Also, mean achievement always falls as average bonus pay rises.     

On the Political Economy of Income Redistribution and Crime

This article analyzes a general equilibrium model in which agents choose to specialize in either legitimate or criminal activities. Expenditures on police to apprehend criminals, as well as income redistribution, are determined endogenously through majority voting. We investigate how crime, redistribution, and police expenditures depend on characteristics of the underlying distribution of income-earning abilities and on the apprehension technology. Our model accounts for the positive correlation between inequality and crime, the positive correlation between expenditures on police and redistribution, and the lack of correlation between crime and redistribution observed in U.S. data.     

The impact of infrastructure investments on income inequality: Evidence from US states

Our analysis of US state-level data on an annual frequency, from 1976 to 2008, sheds new light on a plausible causal link between infrastructure investments, namely public spending on highways, and income inequality. This causal relationship is drawn out using the number of seats in the US House of Representatives Committee on Appropriations (HRCA) as an instrument to identify quasi-random variations in state-level spending on highways. An exogenous pattern which emerges when a state gains an additional member to the HRCA is that it is allocated with new federal grants. This increase in federal transfers for infrastructure financing results in slashing of expenditures on highways and a crowding-out effect of federal funding for state investments on highways. Spending cuts on highways produced by a new HRCA member being attained by a state can unwittingly cause income inequality to rise over a short 2-year time horizon. Similar challenges with decentralized development to finance infrastructure via federal transfers to state and sub-national governments may be encountered by other industrially advanced, emerging and low-income developing economies. US data over the mentioned period reveal a strong positive correlation with state spending on highways and wages paid for construction jobs. Suggestive evidence indicates that the construction sector also plays an important role in the transmission channel from a rise in state spending on highways to lowering income inequality, albeit during specific intervals, as opposed to on a long-term basis.     

Tax policy endogeneity: evidence from R&D tax credits

This paper estimates the causal effect of research and development (R&D) tax incentives on R&D expenditures using new data on U.S. states. Identifying tax variation comes from changes in federal corporate tax laws that heterogeneously and, due to the simultaneity of state and federal corporate taxes, automatically affect state-level tax laws. Instrumental variables regressions indicate that a 1% increase in R&D tax incentives causes a statistically significant 2.8–3.8% increase in R&D. Alternatively, ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions of R&D expenditures on R&D tax incentives, which do not correct for the policy endogeneity of R&D tax incentives, indicate that a 1% increase in R&D tax incentives causes a statistically insignificant 0.4–0.7% increase in R&D. One possible explanation for these results is that tax policies are implemented before an economic downturn.     

How does female labor force participation impact on housing values?

Female labor force participation (FLFP) and household wealth are two main topics of interests to economists for long time. The objective of this study is to investigate the response of housing values, household wealth, to female labor force participation using panel level data in the U.S. states. We develop static and dynamic estimation models using state-level data in the U.S. from 2005 to 2013. The results show the FLFP rate and per capita income have a strong positive effect on housing values, while the number of units per capita has a negative effect on housing values in the state. We find that a 10% increase in FLFP will result in an increase of about 12.5% on housing values. Additionally, increasing per capita income by 10% on average will cause housing values to rise by 9%, however, a 10% rise in the number of units per capita will decrease housing values by 30%. The results assist economists and policy makers in assessing policies to optimize decisions in labor market and housing market.     

An econometric analysis of health care reform in the U.S.

This paper simulates the effects of funding a comprehensive health plan (CHP) on consumer spending in the U.S. using a demographically enhanced dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System model. Quarterly observations on personal consumption expenditures and the relevant price indices of seven major commodity and service groups in the U.S. for the period 1963. 1 through 1989.4 comprise our data set. Our results show that the CHP financing causes no significant adjustment on the demand-side of the economy, i.e., consumer expenditures on the seven major commodity and service groups would decrease slightly in the short run under the CHP financing. (JEL D00)     

The new evidence to tendency of convergence in Solow model

This paper tests the hypothesis in the revised endogenous dynamic Solow model that there exists dynamic convergence to the moving steady-state as a single economy grows. The convergence in the revised endogenous dynamic Solow model implies that the real interest rate and the growth rate of income per capita in an economy would move together, i.e., they would be cointegrated in empirical terms. Taking the U.S. economy as our research subject, we test this hypothesis by investigating the cointegration between the U.S. real interest rate and its growth rate of income per capita during a fifty-year period from 1951 to 2000. Our results show that the U.S. real interest rate and its growth rate of income per capita move together over time, providing strong evidence to support the dynamic convergence hypothesis.     

The effect of growth volatility on income inequality

This paper assesses the long-run effect of growth volatility on income inequality using a comprehensive panel of annual U.S. state-level data during the 1945 to 2004 period. Using the pooled mean group (PMG) estimator, we find evidence supporting the hypothesis that larger growth volatility positively and significantly associates with higher income inequality. Our key finding is robust to alternative lag structures, conditioning variables, inequality measures, volatility indicators, time periods, and panel estimators. Our key finding does change for asymmetric effects, where larger growth volatility positively and significantly associates with higher income inequality only for positive economic growth. The volatility effect proves positive, but insignificant, for negative economic growth.     

Precautionary savings and the governance of nonprofit organizations

We present a model of nonprofit governance built on two assumptions: (1) organizations wish to hold precautionary savings in order to smooth expenditures; and (2) it is relatively easy for managers to divert these funds for personal use. Hence, donors face a trade off between expenditure smoothing and donation dissipation. We examine the model's predictions using panel data on U.S. nonprofits. We show that organizations in states with poor government oversight have managerial compensation that is more highly correlated with inflows of donations and allocate a smaller percentage of donations to the endowment for future expenditures relative to organizations in strong oversight states.     

TIME VS. GOODS: THE VALUE OF MEASURING HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES

We take U.S. and Israeli household data on expenditures of time and goods, generate an exhaustive set of commodities that households produce/consume using them, and calculate their relative goods intensities. Leisure activities are uniformly relatively time intensive, health, travel and lodging relatively goods intensive. We demonstrate how education and age alter the goods intensity of household production. The results of this accounting can be used as guides to: understanding how goods and income taxation interact to affect welfare; expanding notions of the determinants of international flows of goods; generating models of business cycles and endogenous growth to include interactions of goods and time consumption; and obtaining better measures of the distribution of well being.     

Mexican real wages and the U.S. economy

This article examines real wage determinants from 1996 to 2014 across Mexican states. Real wages are determined in equilibrium by combining labor supply (years of education and population growth) and labor demand (mostly external factors) forces. Panel data models provide two main results. First, years of education and U.S. real GDP appear to be reliable predictors of wages in fixed effects models, with very marked changes after the U.S. 2008–2009 financial crisis and stronger effects on northern Mexican states. Second, dynamic panels confirm the role of foreign forces: positive from the U.S. economy and negative from the real exchange rate.     

TROPICS AND INCOME: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF THE U.S. STATES

A simple regression of personal income per capita for the U.S. states is estimated from cross-section data for the years 1929, 1950, 1970 and 1990 with each state's distance from the equator as the regressor. While proximity to the equator is noted to have a sizable adverse effect on income, elasticity of personal income per capita with respect to "tropicality" shows a steady and somewhat dramatic decline during this 60-year period. The estimates indicate that the disadvantage of tropicality is not immutable, and need not imply a developmental determinism.